We could all use some good news these days and boy did NASCAR deliver. Real-life, on-the-track, no-simulator-in-sight Cup Series racing is back, by God. NASCAR made the call to resume the 2020 season at Darlington Raceway on May 17th. Then the action moves to Charlotte for Memorial Day weekend. The excitement is still two weeks away, but we’ve already jumped back in the driver’s seat for the return of sports in the U.S.A.
Visiting The Lady in Black
A totally unprecedented four Cup series races in eleven days may be the only silver lining to NASCAR’s two-month hiatus. Two races fire at Darlington Raceway, then another pair at Charlotte Motor Speedway. We’ve been starved for sports (and sports betting) for what feels like forever. But in a matter of days, we’ll be filling our accounts with matchup and placing bets. This whirlwind may inspire other leagues, as well. As Fox Sports put it, compressed sports schedules are “a glimpse at what’s to come in sports“.
The on-track vibe will be different without fans in the seats but the roar of a field of real 800+ horsepower Cup cars is enough ambiance for those of us at home. What would have been the Southern 500 on Labor Day weekend becomes a pair of 400-mile races reminiscent of past spring Rebel 400s. No complaints here. More is better at this point, though the compressed schedule creates plenty of unknowns for race teams and handicappers alike: no practices, no qualifying, and no truck or Xfinity races to break in the track.
The biggest thing we’re all going to be faced with is the track’s rapidly changing conditions because we used to have the Truck Series or Xfinity Series to help lay down the rubber and create the look of where the groove is, and now (the groove is) going to be as green as it has ever been…
Kurt Busch to NBC Sports
Sustaining Success at Darlington
The 1.37-mile “Lady in Black” already has the distinction of being Too Tough to Tame. Without any on-track preparation, one would assume that experienced drivers have a leg up on the field. Don’t tell that to Darlington’s defending champion, Erik Jones, who won last year in only his third Cup Series race here. Jones has been very good at the egg-shaped South Carolina track. A 5th place finish in 2017 and 9th in 2018 led into his 2019 win. Perhaps youthful endurance sealed the deal in the rain-delayed 2019 race, because the checkered flag didn’t fall until around 2:00 a.m.
Jones’ success in just three short years is atypical amongst a bevvy of newer drivers that have yet to tame Darlington. Established veterans Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin have fared well here in recent years despite some bumps and bruises along the way. You better believe these guys will occupy their customary top slots on the to-win odds board when the betting markets open up. But as you should know by now, obvious favorites rarely make for meaty bets.
Look to Coach Gibbs’ Crew?
When it comes to winning at Darlington, Joe Gibbs’ Toyotas have dominated since Matt Kenseth won the Southern 500 in May 2013. Carl Edwards (2015), Martin Truex, Jr. (2016), Denny Hamlin (2010 & 2017), and Erik Jones (2019) all took home trophies in their Toyotas. Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski briefly rained on the JGR parade in 2014 and 2018, and I’ll also note that Truex’s Toyota belonged to Furniture Row Racing and not the Gibbs team in 2016. My first reaction is to lean to the JGR boys when filling my betting card, but there are serious red flags in their limited 2020 production. That’s a subject for the race betting preview once we get to see some prices.
The Return of Matt Kenseth
Matt Kenseth’s 2013 win at Darlington took place at the front end of a spectacular title run (although he ultimately fell short to 7-time Cup Series Champion Jimmie Johnson). Kenseth’s Southern 500 win was his third in the young 2013 season; he went on to win seven races that year. 2017 marked his final full season, capped by 15 races for the #6 team in 2018. The 2000 Rookie of the Year and 2003 Cup Series Champion’s retirement plans have changed again as he makes his return to NASCAR on May 17th.
Kenseth takes over the #42 Chip Ganassi Chevrolet Camaro after Ganassi dismissed Kyle Larson from the team. Despite earlier Cup successes, Kenseth didn’t really begin to groove with The Lady until 2006, when he had the first of four straight Top 10 finishes. The pot really started to boil when he landed in a Gibbs Toyota in 2013. From 2013 to 2017, Kenseth finished worse than 6th only once (21st in 2015).
Pending no changes to NASCAR’s May plans, Matt will complete his manufacturer trifecta by piloting a Chevy. Kyle Larson, the former driver of the #42 Camaro, arguably belongs in my earlier conversation about successful drivers at Darlington. Since his Cup Series debut here in 2014, Larson finished outside the Top 10 only once (14th in 2017). The #42’s laurels include a pair of 3rd place finishes and a runner-up finish to Erik Jones last year. By the way, Kyle led 452 of the 1,101 laps (41.1%) run in the last three Darlington races. The conundrum is this: how much credit goes to the team and the car, versus the driver?
Yeah, But is He Bettable?
What a tangled web this is. Kenseth had significant success at Darlington in the #20 Joe Gibbs Toyota. Erik Jones inherited this ride and took it to three strong Darlington finishes, including a win. In winning last year, Jones beat out another young gun – Kyle Larson. Matt Kenseth is now taking over for Larson in this latest round of musical cars. In all this, is it safe to assume that the #20 and #42 teams know how to tackle The Lady in Black?
“This was an unexpected opportunity for sure,” Kenseth said in a release provided by the organization. “I can’t say racing was even on my radar two weeks ago. After spending some time thinking about it and all the unique circumstances surrounding all of us right now, it just seemed the timing and the opportunity was perfect to come back. I know I have a lot of work ahead of me to get up to speed in a relatively short period of time, but I’m looking forward to the challenge.”
NASCAR.com, April 27, 2020
What constitutes being “fully prepared” for Darlington is hard to define, given the very unusual lack of ANY pre-race practice or qualifying runs. Matt Kenseth did not race in 2019 and essentially pinch hit an admirable, if ho-hum, partial season in 2018. Kenseth has never driven a Cup Series Chevy and has no prior experience with the #42 crew. He will have something of a class reunion with former, and now current again, teammate Kurt Busch. Busch could very well provide Cliff Notes on the Chip Ganassi Racing framework, making it easier to get ready to roll. At this point, I am channeling Bob Barker. Kenseth will likely be on my betting card – if the price is right. As for his teammate, Kurt, he’s going to be a key topic in the upcoming race preview.
Playing the Field
We are proud to resume our NASCAR handicapping coverage with the reemergence of the 2020 season. Be on the lookout for our race preview once the betting markets start to hang prices for the Darlington action. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email alerts when new handicapping articles drop. There’s plenty of NFL preparation in the works and still hope for an MLB season. Stay tuned!
