PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-7

SEASON RESULTS:
6-8

Week 2 Recap:

What a disappointing week 2 of player props for the BetCrushers as a loaded slate netted a disgusting 4-7 mark. As is the case with most wagers, things could have gone different directions, but this is why the sportsbook linemakers make the money they do. We’ll start with the positives. We had some relatively easy wins with the overs on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Warren and CeeDee Lamb, and managed to stay just below on the under with Mike Evans. The tight losses were missing Christian McCaffrey’s yardage total by 9 yards. He only needed 10 yards with nearly a quarter to go, but managed to only get one yard closer in the fail. Caleb Williams was the most frustrating loss as the game went as we expected. What we did not count on was Tyson Bagent coming in for the final two series of the game, and getting the garbage yardage Williams needed to get over his total. James Conner was another close loss, but he lost too many carries to his backfield mate, and ultimately fell just short. Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange also couldn’t quite get to his mark, as his target share decreased a bit from week one. Then there were a few ugly defeats. We faded running backs Kenneth Walker III and Bijan Robinson, both of whom got off to really hot starts and never looked back. And we also took a shot with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who managed to only get two targets and one catch. We really needed one of those close losses to be a win and the day would have looked differently, but that’s why they call it gambling.

Week 3 Preview:

Let’s see if we can get back on track in week three. After the disappointing week two, we’re dialing it back just a bit win week three with five key plays we’re focused on.  There were quite a few others that look juicy, but let’s go a little smaller this week and hope our favorite wagers can get home.  Best of luck to you in week three!

Our Picks:

Patrick Mahomes – Over 27.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Apparently the sportsbook think that a 2 week sample size is not enough to greatly adjust the rushing numbers for Patrick Mahomes as he prepares to face the New York Giants.  A combination of a weak rushing attack, less than stellar offensive line play, and missing key passing weapons have forced Mahomes to rely on his legs more than ever.  Perhaps Xavier Worthy returning, and maybe getting off to a quick start against the Giants can keep Mahomes from having to scramble.  But since he’s averaged over 60 yards rushing in the first two games, this number at 27.5 yards seems very manageable.  The Giants have the horses to rush the passer, which should result in some tucking and running for Mahomes.  Sure, he won’t rush for 60 yards every week, but this week seems like the type of matchup in a must-win game where he can get half of that.

Jordan Mason – Over 73.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Many casual and more sophisticated NFL fans felt Jordan Mason should be handling the workload for the Vikings over an older Aaron Jones in the backfield.  They’re going to get their wish as Jones was placed in IR, making Mason a possible workhorse against the Cincinnati Bengals.  When Mason has been given the opportunity in his young career, he’s performed well.  He’ll have lot of opportunities against  Bengals defense that is still one of the worst in the league overall.  Carson Wentz gets the start for Minnesota at QB, and although he’s a veteran, you’d have to guess that the running game will be a big priority for the Vikings.  Everything is lining up for a 20+ carry game here for Mason, which should allow him to eclipse this mark against the soft Cincinnati defense.

Josh Jacobs – Under 74.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

A running back who might not have as much success this weekend is the Packers Josh Jacobs.  Green Bay has been a juggernaut offensively, and although Jacobs has been solid, he hasn’t been spectacular.  He enters the next contest facing a stingy Browns defense that is allowing just over 2 yards per carry to opposing backs, and just shut down Derrick Henry completely.  It is possible that Green Bay would build up a large lead, and Jacobs might see a ton of carries, but the Browns should be at least a little feisty here.  If they can keep this game even remotely close, they should be able to clamp down enough on Jacobs to keep him under.

Daniel Jones – Over 212.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We’ll be the first to admit the Colts offensive explosion through two weeks is going to hit a roadblock somewhere along the way.  Maybe even this weekend against the Titans?  But for a team and a quarterback that have been absolutely cruising, how can Jones’ total yards be sitting at just 212.5 when he’s hitting the 300 yard mark?  When looking at this prop, we had this circled with a target between 240 and 250 yards.  This is giving us a cushion of over 30 yards to still get home.  Will Jones go from a top QB to struggling to hit the 200 yard mark in this game?  Or will the Colts completely blowout the Titans leading to him not playing or throwing in the second half?  Sure, anything is possible, but the number here is simply too good to pass up for a player who’s started the season so hot. 

Garrett Wilson – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

A game that could be quietly entertaining is the New York Jets facing off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Jets will turn to Tyrod Taylor in search of their first win against a Bucs’ team that won a thriller on Monday night.  The Buccaneers defense is one of the easier to handicap across the league, as they are very good against the run, and very bad against the pass.  That’s of course oversimplifying it, but it’s essentially all you need for this wager.  Tampa should be able to keep Breece Hall and Braelon Allen under control, and Tyrod Taylor at this stage of his career doesn’t have quite the burst that Justin Fields would.  That means they’re going to have to throw the ball to move the sticks, and Taylor is actually more capable than Fields in that department as a veteran.  The Jets lack playmaking weapons, with the exception of Wilson, who should be able to get some separation against the porous Tampa secondary.  Expect him to see a lot of targets, and six catches in this game is more than do-able for the talented receiver.

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