PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
0-0
SEASON RESULTS:
0-0
Week 1 Preview:
The buzz around the 2022 NFL season is as high as any season opening there has ever been. Sportsbooks are taking in record handles as the amount of options and opportunities for sports bettors are at an all-time high. As books have adapted how they accept bets and assign juice, the value with player prop bets has often trumped traditional against the spread and over/under lines. The BetCrushers Prop Corner continues to be a cornerstone for our overall betting portfolio. Week one is probably the trickiest week to find player props due to a lot of uncertainties without sample sizes. For example, we really like Chase Edmonds this week, however we simply have to wait to see if he receives a large workload, or if it’s balanced with his mates in the backfield? We opted to go with some players that have a little more stability for the time being, and ended up taking overs for eight players we think are poised for good opening weekends.
Our Picks:
T.J. Hockenson – Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
The freshly hyped up Detroit Lions get a home game to open the 2022 season and will face a potent Philadelphia Eagles team. The Eagles made some really nice defensive improvements in the offseason bringing in pass rusher Haason Reddick, and rookies Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. Their biggest acquisitions were actually in the secondary adding James Bradberry and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. That doesn’t bode too well for Jared Goff as he will look to what would probably best be described as an average trio of wide receivers. As a result we’re thinking that reliable tight end T.J. Hockenson should get a lot of looks in the middle of the field. Hockenson is normally a target magnet anyhow, and this matchup really lends itself to further showcasing his skills as a pass catcher. In his game last season against the Eagles he brought in 10 catches, as the Lions were playing catch up for much of the second half. Even if this game is close, Hockenson should be heavily involved. If it gets away from Detroit as it did last year, that will only help his cause.
Jonathan Taylor – Over 97.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Although the 2021 season was disappointing overall for the Indianapolis Colts, it certainly was an individual success for running back Jonathan Taylor, who broke out in a major way. Optimism is high again in Indy, and even though QB Matt Ryan is the flashy new piece of the puzzle, much of their hopes rest on a repeated dominant season from their talented running back. Taylor and the Colts take aim at the Texans and enter the weekend as one of the largest favorites across the league. The combination of a less than stellar defense in Houston, and the fact that the Colts should win the game make Taylor a must-play for us. In their two matchups against the Texans a season ago Taylor rushed for 145 and 143 yards, respectively. It’s always asking a lot to expect a running back to hit the 100 yard threshold in today’s pass first NFL, but the Colts are a little more of a throwback type of team. We’re expecting quite a few carries for Taylor and that volume should get him over the century mark, even if he doesn’t break any particularly long runs.
Trevor Lawrence – Over 15.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
We’re expecting a nice progression from the Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence this season. They open the season with a winnable game against the Washington Commanders, in what could set the tone for both the winning and the losing team. Lawrence is more thought of as a classic dropback passer than a mobile QB, but when you really dig into the numbers it tells a little different story. The former Clemson star showed as a rookie he was not afraid to tuck and run when the pocket collapsed, as many young quarterbacks tend to do. He actually finished the season with the 7th most rushing yards from the quarterback position. A season ago Washington finished dead last at allowing quarterback rushing yards and they definitely don’t have the most athletic linebackers in the league. For a quarterback that averaged 20 rushing yards a game last year and enters rested and healthy, this seems like a great spot to play this over.
Deebo Samuel – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
It’s definitely not a stretch to say that Deebo Samuel helped change the way the wide receiver position is played last season in San Francisco. The athletic wideout lined up in the backfield and was essentially a hybrid running back and receiver. You’ve got to be fast, strong and athletic to pull that off in the NFL, something Samuel certainly is. Samuel and his coach have both stated that they’re planning to have him lined up less in the backfield and more often in a traditional receiver role this season. He has a favorable week one matchup against a Bears team that really only has one proven pass rusher, and now what we consider to be a weak secondary. We won’t know for sure how Trey Lance will perform after an interesting offseason, but he’s got to get some yards through the air somewhere along the way. When Lance has been on the field, he has looked primarily in Samuel’s direction, which should continue here. Throw in the fact that tight end George Kittle could be limited, and Deebo seems like the natural guy to pick up the tough yards and keep the chains moving. He started out hot in 2021 and he should do the same in 2022. Over/Under 54.5 receiving yards almost seems a little disrespectful for a guy with the talent he possesses.
David Montgomery – Over 14.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Staying with the matchup between the Bears and 49ers, David Montgomery is another player we believe there is a nice number to chase. The Bears running back is a physical, and will get some early totes to try to keep the 49ers defense honest against young Justin Fields. The problem for Montgomery and the Bears is that their offensive line just isn’t very good. They’re generally ranked somewhere in the 25th to dead last range depending on the rankings you want to compare. Against a really tough San Francisco pass rush, we’re expecting Justin Fields to have to get rid of the ball quickly for most of the game. The two players that would stand to benefit the most from that are tight end Cole Kmet and David Mongtomery. Although Montgomery will share some time with Khalil Herbert, it’s very possibly both guys could snag 4 or 5 passes if Fields is under the durress that we’re anticipating. It’s also fair to point out there is a strong chance the Bears could be trailing in the second half, which would take the running game out of the equation and force the Bears to fight through the air. There’s too much working in the favor of Montgomery as a pass catcher with such a low total in this matchup.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 44.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
You can make the argument that no team’s offensive success is more reliant on a player who is not a quarterback, than the Panthers is with running back Christian McCaffrey. With him in the lineup, their offense is formidable, and even a little bit scary to defend. Without him, they look completely inept and struggle just to secure first downs. The team and McCaffrey hope the talented back can stay healthy this season and it starts in week one against the Cleveland Browns. The headlines are focused on Panthers new quarterback Baker Mayfield facing his former team, so McCaffrey is actually flying a little under the radar here. There are a few reasons we really like McCaffrey to have a nice game, and particularly a nice receiving game. First, we can look back at some historical trends as McCaffrey topped this 44.5 yard number in all five games he was healthy a season ago, and actually beat the number pretty soundly in most. Second, the Browns should be pretty stout against the run again, which means Carolina will look to get McCaffrey the ball in a little more space. Finally, there is that addition of Baker Mayfield at the QB position. Mayfield threw to his backs more than another quarterback in the league in Cleveland so we know he’s not afraid to check it down and take the easy throws. Welcome back Christian McCaffrey and we hope you can both stay healthy, and get 45 yards receiving on Sunday.
Austin Ekeler – Over 100.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-110)
The Chargers and Raiders finished the regular season in an extra exciting, essentially playoff game, that saw Las Vegas come away with a wild win. They’ll face each other to start this regular season with each team carrying high playoff hopes into week one. The Raiders made a splash with some big name additions on both offense with Davante Adams, and defense with Chandler Jones. Neither of these players should have much of an impact on the performance of Austin Ekeler in this game though, as this should be a high-scoring affair both ways. The Chargers running back is one of the most versatile players in the league, and week to week it’s hard to know if he’ll get a bunch of carries, catch a bunch of passes, or both. That’s why we don’t like trying to guess on his rushing or receiving props, we’ll just stack them together and take his total yards. If you followed Ekeler’s props a season ago, this number was almost always right around the 100 yard mark, and he was almost always around it as well. Because it’s locked in, you may be curious why we are taking him to go over here? In simple terms, he has owned the Raiders during his career when healthy. His best game a season ago was against Las Vegas, and he’s a problem for this defense. Because of some suspect corner play and having Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at receiver, the Raiders are constantly blitzing and dropping their safeties back in coverage. This leaves the middle of the field wide open for Ekeler. It may take the duration, and it may be close, but we think he can get there.
Russell Wilson – Over 11.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
In an offseason of some huge movement and news, one of the top headlines was Seattle Seahawks former face of the franchise Russell Wilson being dealt to the Denver Broncos. The NFL hooked us all up with a week one Monday Night Football contest that has Wilson going back into Seattle to face his former team in what is sure to be a really loud and chaotic environment. Wilson also didn’t really do much in the preseason and camp, so how he plays in the opener really could be a bit of a guess. One thing we are willing to guess on a bit is what Wilson will do in the game with his legs, and that’s run for some first downs. While it’s absolutely true that Wilson is no longer the scrambling player he was in his younger days, he still has the ability to tuck it and go if he needs to. If you’ve followed the BetCrushers over the years you know that one of our favorite prop bets for all nationally televised prime time games is a quarterbacks rushing yards. When the spotlight is brightest, they’re always more willing to put their body on the line and take off running if it helps their team win. The fear of throwing interceptions on the big stage is greater than the fear of getting tackled by a safety. With Wilson likely still developing chemistry with his new skill position weapons, don’t be surprised if he runs more than he normally will during the rest of the season. In this particular contest, in a game you know he wants to play well in and win, he’ll do whatever it takes to win, including putting those old running shoes on. Give us over 11.5 yards rushing.
Follow us @TheBetCrushers on Twitter 
