PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
8-4

SEASON RESULTS:
35-31

Week 8 Recap:

Just a few weeks ago we were four games under .500 on the season, and were starting to even second guess our own advice of trying to stick with the process with our prop betting. Since then we’ve gone 15-7 and vaulted back into positive territory, with our eyes set on starting to really churn out some profit in the second half of the season. Week eight felt even better than just the 8-4 mark that we sported as even the wagers that didn’t hit seemed to be the right side. Additionally, the bets that we did cash were almost all absolutely crushed, which makes the handicap feel really solid. Here’s the quick recap: We pegged Travis Etienne, Jr. in the London game against the Broncos and he doubled up the yardage total needed and cashed early. Derrick Henry also more than doubled his yardage total as we mentioned that he was over 200 the previous three games against the Texans and could do it again, and did. DeAndre Hopkins once again coasted over his catch total as he’s quite obviously Kyler Murray’s guy. Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards was one of the closer wins, as he finished over the total, but only by 7 yards. Our lone under was once again focused on Najee Harris, and he never threatened it, and in fact looked bad enough that there’s discussion of him being benched or on the trading block. Tyreek Hill was the leading wide receiver in terms of yardage on the weekend, so his yardage mark was never really in doubt. He actually topped it in the first half against the miserable Lions secondary. One of the trendier bets was Tony Pollard’s over rushing yards, as the number kept climbing up until gametime. We got a solid number, but even a bad number would have cashed as he looked as good as most people believed he would cashing his total. Monday Night Football showcased Amari Cooper in a bet we loved, and he didn’t disappoint, smashing his yardage total in the third quarter. Our losses were oh so close as we mentioned. Raheem Mostert fell just three rushing yards shy of his total, and had he gotten more than 14 carries would have gotten there. Stefon Diggs also missed his reception mark by the hook, finishing with 6, needing a 7th. Chris Olave and Kenneth Walker III both missed their totals by less than a first down. All in all, absolutely zero complaints on how week 8 went with the prop bets.

Week 9 Preview:

It’s always nice to start the weekend with a head start, which is exactly what happened with our official play of Dallas Goedert over yardage for Thursday Night Football. As we did with our sides/totals weekly plays, were a little thinner in week number nine with a smaller schedule. We’ve added five more picks, four running backs and a tight end, all who we’re expecting to have big games. As you’ll notice, we have two running backs on the same team, which is a rarity. There were some tempting quarterback under numbers, as well as some over receivers we explored, but there were ultimately too many potential variances and scripts for us to pull the trigger. Instead, we’ll see if these 5 guys can duplicate the success Goedert had to start off the weekend.

Our Picks:

Aaron Jones – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

A week ago the Green Bay Packers played a tough football game but simply did not have enough firepower to hang with the Buffalo Bills. The Lions can score some points as well, and in this matchup Green Bay should be able to keep up. The Packers were forced to run the football due in part to a depleted receiving group, and the Bills dropping in two deep safety for an astounding 90% of the snaps. Aaron Jones got a lot of work in and was the most productive player on the offense by far. Regardless of what scheme the Lions throw at GB on defense, Jones should have little trouble making some big plays against Detroit. The Lions are giving up over 5 yards per carry on the season as their front seven lacks the talent to shut down talented backs. Jones has had success in Detroit topping his mark of 67.5 the last two visits there on the indoor turf. Look for Green Bay to lean on the running game again, and for Jones to have another productive ballgame.

A.J. Dillon – Over 39.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The opportunities haven’t really been there for A.J. Dillon over the past month as the struggling Packers offense hasn’t been able to sustain offense. In his last for games he’s only had 6, 10, 4 and 10 rushes, which is a lot for most number two running backs, but not for Dillon. The good news for Dillon in this game is he should see at least 10 touches as long as Green Bay can stay on the field offensively. In the six games this season where he has had 10 carries or more, he’s eclipsed 40 yards in five of those games, clearing the mark pretty easily in four of the them. Against the soft Lions front, his physical style of running should fare well. Last season in Detroit he was able to grab 14 carries and top 65 yards. With the Lions allowing over 5 yards per carry as we mentioned with Aaron Jones, Dillon could potentially get over his meager total with just 8 carries.

Travis Etienne, Jr. – Over 103.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Initially it seemed as though James Robinson was getting a really raw deal again in Jacksonville as his playing time decreased, despite some solid production. Make no mistake about it, Robinson is a good running back in the National Football League, however Travis Etienne, Jr. is potentially a great running back. In his first two contests shouldering the load for the Jacksonville offense, he has thrived, breaking off both big runs, and steady gains to move the sticks. The Jaguars host the Raiders and will look to exploit their defense much like the Saints did a week ago. Alvin Kamara was all over the field both running and receiving, and Etienne has a similar game to Kamara. Additionally, he may see even more snaps as the Jags seem to have no problem feeding the young running back like a workhorse. The matchup is favorable, and in the small sample size Etienne looks like the real deal.

Zach Ertz – Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

With DeAndre Hopkins not in the lineup in weeks one through six we witnessed a lot of targets and a lot of catches for Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end hasn’t been quite as involved in the passing game the last two weeks, however he’s still been pretty effective. With the decrease in targets his yardage total has dropped below 40 after it was in the high 40’s for the beginning of the season. There’s still some value with Ertz when the matchup is right, and in this contest versus the Seahawks, it’s absolutely right. For starters, this game has one of the higher projected totals of the weekend, so points and yards could come easily for both teams. More importantly, the Seahawks have been really bad at defending opposing tight ends this season. Bad as in the worst in the league. With Hopkins back strong, and the return of James Conner, it’s a safe bet that the middle of the field should leave some room for Ertz to roam. His production for the rest of the season may not be spectacular, but the matchup here dictates a play on his total receiving yardage.

Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Speaking of young running backs taking over for slightly older backs, the Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson has taken charge of the feature role for the New England Patriots. Damien Harris returned quickly from his injury, however Stevenson has simply been more productive and effective guiding this offense. Both backs should get plenty of work against the Colts on Sunday, and we’re figuring Stevenson will get a little bit more. Of course, trying to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do week to week is like trying to guess lottery numbers. That being said, the Patriots really seem to be leaning into Stevenson and he should be able to grind out some yardage against Indianapolis. The Patriots could also have a favorable game script here as well as the Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor again and playing with Sam Ehlinger in his first road start. If New England can get up early, there could be a lot of carries in the second half for their running backs. The trends show Stevenson has topped his Sunday total of 67.5 in every game since week three, with the exception of a poor performance against the Bears, in that inexplicable home loss for New England. We’re expecting 80 to 100 as a range for Stevenson here so we’ll take his over.

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