PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-1
SEASON RESULTS:
27-14
Week 6 Recap:
We tried to stay selective last weekend with our prop corner and it worked out as we were able to hit 3 of the 4 bets we placed. You don’t want to hear it and you probably won’t believe it, but our biggest mistake was not to go with the six we had circled, as the two we didn’t play covered as well. Go ahead and roll your eyes there as it certainly is irrelevant. What is relevant though, is we cashed on the yardage overs with running backs Tyler Allgeier, who continues to poach carries from Bijan Robinson, and James Cook. Both were a little dicey at the halftime of their respective games, but each got more totes in the second half and got it done. Despite a flat Vikings offense in the absence of Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn was indeed the beneficiary of a couple of extra targets his way and eclipsed his mark in the third quarter of their game with the Bears. It’s good that he did, as he didn’t snag any additional passes in the fourth quarter. Our lone loss was one we were hesitant on, but decided to go with anyhow, and that was Calvin Ridley. Against the Colts secondary, and with what he did to them in the first matchup, we thought there was a good chance he’d blow up again, but he was held to just three catches and wasn’t really instrumental in their attack. Another small, but solid week in the books.
Week 7 Preview:
Last week we went light with just four wagers and we’re doubling that up to eight this weekend. We’ve got two players from one team, and a couple of players facing off in another. We’re fading a couple of running backs, and backing a combination of star players, and quieter contributors. Whatever your flavor, we’ve got something for you. Let us know who we’re missing on X (Twitter) @TheBetCrushers
Our Picks:
Josh Allen – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
After a sluggish performance against the New York Giants a week ago, the Buffalo Bills need to get their offense on track in a game they need to win against the New England Patriots. The weather is supposed to be a bit windy in Boston, but it shouldn’t be more than Allen can handle, as he’s used to those conditions and of course has the arm strength to deal with that. Much has been made of Allen’s dominance over the rival Dolphins, however his numbers have been about the same versus the Patriots as well. In his last six games against NE he has tossed 18 touchdowns and only one interception. That includes the memorable “wind” game on primetime that you can essentially toss out the window as far as passing stats go. The Patriots have done an admirable job stopping the run this year, which probably just puts the ball in Allen’s hands even more for this game. With the Pats top two pass rushers set to miss the game, and a banged up secondary, Allen should be able to keep his lofty numbers going on Sunday. He should also eclipse his passing total, however if the Bills get up huge, there’s a chance they are a little more conservative in the second half. Additionally, with New England possibly able to run the ball on their end, he may not get enough opportunities throwing down the field. At less than normal prop vig (-110), we’re backing Allen to get at least a pair of TD tosses in this contest.
Rachaad White – Under 47.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Last year wasn’t a fluke in regards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers inability to run the football. Despite opposing defenses generally playing a coverage defense to defend Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs simply have been unable to get things moving in the right direction with the ground game. Rachaad White was given the starting job, however outside of a 73 yard performance against the Bears where he averaged 4.3 yards per carry, he’s averaged only 3.1 yards per tote and a meager 37 yards per game. The last three games he’s also watched as Ke’Shawn Vaughn has gotten increasingly involved in an effort to jumpstart things, including nearly splitting carries a week ago. This week White faces a Falcons defense that is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry in what figures to be a bit of a slugfest in the trenches. Unless White can break a big gainer, which he hasn’t proven the ability to do, it’s hard to see him finding his way to the 50 yard mark, or 48 yards more specifically. We’re going to fade the Bucs running game here and look for White to stay under his yardage total.
Jonathan Taylor – Under 43.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Can you imagine what Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yardage total would have been a couple of years ago against the Cleveland Browns? Most likely we’d have witnessed that number in the triple digits. Fast forward to Sunday and it rests at a measly 43.5 yards, and here we are taking the under. Taylor rejoined the Colts after missing the first month of the season and witnessing Zack Moss being one of the most productive rushers in the league. Indy is figuring out how to balance the two for the time being, and after two games, it’s Moss who has been far superior. The Colts may try to force things a bit with Taylor, but as long as Moss is producing, they’re going to have to at least keep him involved as a new fan favorite. Since Taylor has returned his rushing stat line has been 6 carries for 18 yards and 8 carries for 19 yards. It doesn’t get a lot easier for him this week as he’ll face a Browns defense that is as good as any he’ll see all season. Unless Indy can get out a big lead, it’s hard to see Taylor getting the necessary touches here against this stout defense to really improve substantially on where he has been the last two weekends. We’ll go the fade on him for at least one more week as we see how his split in time ends up going.
Kenneth Walker III – Over 78.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
If you’ve been paying close attention to the BetCrushers this season you probably picked up on the fact we’ve been on the Kenneth Walker III profit train in a lot of different facets. We’re jumping back on board once again in a favorable home matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Walker has never really relinquished control of the RB1 spot and continues to be a bit of a workhorse back and focal point of the Seahawks offense. Speaking of that offense, they should have a good day overall against a Cardinals defense that is simply outmanned at all three levels. We expect all of the Seahawks to get some things working on offense, but Walker seems like the surest play of all. If Seattle does build a lead, he should get plenty of carries to get over this mark. Even if the game stays close, he’s got a real shot at breaking some big plays and getting to 100 yards regardless. The Cardinals have already surrendered 800 yards rushing on the season, and that’s facing only a few really good running backs. Let’s see if we can get to the pay window once again with Walker.
Saquon Barkley – Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
The New York Giants will once again enter a game with the most patchworked offensive line in the league, which is less than ideal against the front four of the Washington Commanders. It’s hard to expect Saquon Barkley, or anyone for that matter to find much success running the football behind blockers who should definitely not be starting in the National Football League. New York has to get the ball to their best player though, and head coach Brian Daboll definitely understands this. Expect Barkley to be a main target in the passing game as he should see a couple of screen passes throughout the course of the contest. Where we’re expecting him to get over his reception total is on the checkdown passes where he’s the hot receiver out of the backfield. Signs are pointing to Tyrod Taylor starting at quarterback as Daniel Jones needs another week to heal his neck. Taylor has been one of the “safest” quarterbacks in the league during his career and never makes risky throws. He is absolutely unafraid to check the ball down as much as he needs to in order to avoid throwing interceptions. In the three games he’s played, Barkley has averaged 4.5 targets per game, and that number should only go up against Washington. The yardage production may or may not be there, but the receptions should. Getting this prop for even money makes it one worth taking a flyer on.
Amari Cooper – Over 62.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The offense for Cleveland has been less than dynamic since the loss of running back Nick Chubb, but they have had one consistent player, and that’s Amari Cooper. With the exception of a dud against the Ravens, Cooper has been logging targets, receptions and yards as the one piece of the offense making plays. He has a very friendly matchup against the Colts, a team that is better at stopping the run than the pass. We’re not sure who will be playing quarterback yet, but it looks like it will be Deshaun Watson. There has been a lot of criticism on Watson during his Browns tenure, but looking Cooper’s way has not been part of it. Cooper should be able to win his individual matchups, and by default should stumble through this yardage total. If this is the week the targets and yards go to Elijah Moore and Donovan Peoples-Jones, we can live with that, because there has been zero evidence of that happening up to this point.
Cooper Kupp – Over 91.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Suggesting that 91.5 yards is a bargain number generally sounds absurd, however with Cooper Kupp anything under 100 is an absolute steal. That’s not to say it’s a guarantee Kupp will beat his mark, simply that we’ll be playing it pretty much anytime it’s under 100. Death, taxes and Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp are basically the life certainties at this point. Any concern of easing Kupp back into the rotation off of his hamstring injury was put to rest early as he’s easily topped 100 yards in both games back. The Rams don’t have an easy matchup by any means against the Steelers, who have a defense that can lock down players at times. Kupp is just simply one of those guys that really just can’t be completely locked out though. This is also a situation where the early hot play of Puka Nacua actually helps, not hinders Kupp. Teams are forced to account for Nacua and cannot simply take away Kupp, and he’s a magician at beating single coverage. With the Rams possibly running the ball a little less with the injury to Kyren Williams, the yards have to come from somewhere. The ball will get spread around for the Rams, but when in doubt Stafford and McVay are going to find ways to get the ball into Kupp’s hands.
Dalton Kincaid – Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed last week’s game against the Giants with a concussion and will return to face the Patriots with the strong possibility of an increased role in the offense. After the Bills poor performance against New York, the coaches were quick to point out the absence of Kincaid and how big of a factor he is in the game plan. The rookie hasn’t had a huge impact on the offense just yet, but he is averaging 4 targets per game and over 3 catches. We mentioned there will be a little wind in New England, which means Kincaid could benefit from some shorter and quicker throws. When you add that up with the team vocally wanting to get him more involved in the offense, this feels like a spot where he should at least match his three catch performance average we’ve seen up to this point. Bill Belichick is going to do everything possible to take away Stefon Diggs, which means others are going to need to contribute. This could be one of Kincaid’s busiest days of the season and we’re betting on it.
