PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
20-24

Week 6 Recap:

Doing these recaps is becoming a bit depressing, as just when we felt like we were finding our way, we have another negative performance. Our read on Najee Harris was accurate, and David Njoku cashed his measly over early, but the other three wagers were ugly. Saquon Barkley was close, but fell just a little bit short as he needed a little more field to get a few more yards. The really bad miss was Tyler Higbee, who seemed in line for a monster game, but was targeted only once in the game. Jalen Hurts was the positive/negative bet for the weekend, but in a game that Philadelphia dominated early on, he never really got running. Going 2-3 normally isn’t the worst thing in the world, but when we’re already in the hole, we need winning weekends.

Week 7 Preview:

We’re back to a full card as we’ve got 10 plays lined up spanning some of the biggest names at the running back and wide receiver positions in the league. We’ve also got a few new participants that are a little lesser known teed up that we’ve found some favorable matchups with. The quarterbacks this week all fell pretty closely within our projected ranges, so even though we toyed with playing Tua in his return, we stuck with just the skill positions. It’s mostly positive as we’ve identified and selected nine guys that we believe are set up for big gamedays, and faded just one, in what is a really big mismatch.

Our Picks:

Chris Godwin – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

After a perplexing loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have another “layup” against the Carolina Panthers, fresh off the trade of their best player. If this is really to be a bounce back game for the Bucs, they’ll need to try to get their offense on track against a somewhat feisty defense in Carolina. The problem for the Panthers is they’re basically in rebuild give up mode at this point, and this game could really get out of hand. The Bucs have a balanced offense, even when struggling, so it’s difficult for teams to scheme to take any one player away. That leaves a lot of one-on-one opportunities to receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both of which should have nice games. Evans is likely to see more of Jaycee Horn, which means Godwin will have a matchup advantage more often than not. Godwin stated he’s feeling as healthy as he’s been this season and has shown flashes of what makes him such a threat in the slot and on this offense. After grabbing 7, 6 and 6 catches the last 3 weeks, we’ll play his over when it’s set below that at 5.5.

Travis Etienne, Jr. – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Jacksonville Jaguars didn’t let the strong start of running back James Robinson scare them away from moving towards Travis Etienne, Jr. as their feature running back. The two still split a lot of time, however it’s Etienne who is seeing more work, and has been much more productive the last three games for Jacksonville. The former Gator should be in line for a nice workload when the Jaguars face the 5-1 Giants as home favorites. Despite the lofty record for New York, their metrics at stopping the run are not great. They’re tied for last in the league allowing 5.6 yards per carry, and have been even worse than that in recent weeks. If you do the math of averages, Etienne just needs 9 attempts to get over this total. In reality, he probably will have quite a few more than that, and should go well over this number.

David Njoku – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

Back to the well again with Browns tight end David Njoku, who cashed his crazy low reception total a week ago. He only snagged three balls in that game, but the books have still adjusted him to the 3.5 mark as it’s apparent he’s a now a top ten tight end in the league. The Ravens have had challenges stopping the run which should lead to some extra safety help in the box. With Amari Cooper drawing Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, things should open up nicely for Njoku over the middle of the field. The Ravens are near touchdown favorites and should put up some points of their own against a struggling Cleveland defense. Njoku has received at least 6 targets the past 5 games, and has at least 3 receptions as well. This number seems about right, however the matchup dictates that Njoku should have better than a “normal” game on Sunday.

Alec Pierce – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

The Indianapolis Colts seem to have had an epiphany with how to best utilize their passing game with quarterback Matt Ryan. A week ago, Ryan was throwing often, and using short passes almost as their running game. Even though they’re getting healthier at the running back position, the coaching staff had to realize how much better it was for Ryan to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Someone needed to earn the trust of Ryan beyond Michael Pittman, Jr., and it appears that rookie Alec Pierce is that player. Pierce has 6, 9 and 7 targets the last three weeks, which he turned into 4, 8, and 3 catches, respectively. The Titans have done a decent job against primary wide receivers this season, but not as great of a job against secondary weapons. They’ll focus their efforts on stopping the run, and matching up with Michael Pittman, Jr., which should allow Pierce some nice opportunities in this game. In a game that should be close, Ryan should be throwing throughout so we’re banking on an over with the young receiver.

Robert Tonyan – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

The lack of consistent wide receiver play really seems to be catching up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The team hits the road to face the Commanders, in what could be considered a favorable passing matchup versus a below average defense. Rodgers and the Packers are struggling without Davante Adams, and now go without Randall Cobb and Christian Watson on Sunday. That should open things up nicely for a reliable face in tight end Robert Tonyan. Since Cobb exited the lineup, Tonyan seems to be the beneficiary of those voided targets, as he secured 10 receptions last weekend. Even though Washington has done a decent job against opposing tight ends, you can safely assume that Tonyan should get a lot of looks from Rodgers.

Josh Jacobs – Over 84.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If anyone had told us that we’d be playing a rushing over of Josh Jacobs, particularly one set in the mid 80’s, we’d probably tell you we’d been kidnapped and forced to bet against our will. Here we are in week 7 of the 2022 season and we’re going all in on a 100 yard day for Jacobs against the Houston Texans. Since being talked about before the season as a trade or cut candidate, Jacobs has looked like the runner we saw during his rookie campaign. He’s been running hard, seeing the field well, and really been the most consistent piece of the Raiders offense this season. Specifically, he’s been a workhorse the last two weeks tallying 21 and 28 rushes and topping 100 yards in each contest. He will get a lot of work again in his home matchup with the Texans, a team the Raiders should be able to build a lead against. The Texans are giving up over 5.1 yards per carry and will be without defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard. Additionally, the Raiders will be missing tight end Darren Waller, so they’ll have to lean even more on their running game. Look for Jacobs to be the main player in this game, and take his over.

Breece Hall – Over 70.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Denver Broncos are ranked 2nd overall in defensive DVOA, and have helped their team stay competitive during what’s been an adjustment for the offense with Russell Wilson. Despite the strong defensive play, they haven’t been great at stopping opposing running backs, and have been getting worse the past few weeks. That’s a good sign for Jets running back Breece Hall as he looks to continue a streak that has seen him have more carries every week than the one before. The last two weeks in particular he’s been on a tear, averaging over 5 yards a carry, and totaling 116 yards against the Packers last weekend. The Jets are not going to be in a rush to have Zach Wilson throwing against the secondary of the Broncos, which means Hall should continue getting a lot of carries. Throw in the fact that Broncos linebacker Josey Jewell, one of their better run stuffers at the linebacker position will be missing the contest and things are shaping up nicely for Hall. We’re trusting the rookie in what we think is going to be a game with a lot of running.

Gerald Everett – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Chargers take on the surprising Seahawks in Los Angeles looking for their 5th win of the season. After a fast start to the season, tight end Gerald Everett has cooled off a bit the previous two weeks. Sunday looks like it will be a nice bounce back spot for Everett as he faces a defense that has been flat out awful at stopping tight ends. Keenan Allen will either miss the contest completely, or be in a pitch count, which means Everett should get some targets versus a very suspect back seven for the Seahawks. The low production recently has pushed his yardage total down to 31.5 yards, the lowest it’s been since early in the season. The play here is pretty simple: We’re taking a tight end who’s averaging over 40 yards per game against this total, versus a team that can’t stop tight ends. Give us the over.

Kenneth Walker III – Over 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

In case you didn’t get the memo, there’s a new legitimate top ten running back in the league residing in Seattle. Kenneth Walker III is now one of the busiest running backs in the league after the season ending injury to Rashaad Penny has pressed him into the prime running role. In his first game as starter he totaled 21 carries and 97 yards against the Cardinals in what was a physical battle. Walker gets a crack at the LA Chargers this week, a team that never was able to fix their horrific run defense from a season ago. So far this season they’re ranked dead last in YPC allowing nearly 5.7 yards per attempt. With teams generally playing soft zone to account for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, there has been a lot of room to run for the Seattle running backs. Walker is our Star of the Week in Daily Fantasy Football so we’re counting a huge day from the young running back.

David Montgomery – Under 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Chicago Bears head to New England to face the Patriots in a game that has mismatch written all over it. The spread has ballooned to nearly double digits as the world isn’t giving Justin Fields much of a chance against Bill Belichick in Foxboro. It’s not really Fields that the Patriots will be focused on stopping early, as the Patriots will want to take away the running of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert to force Fields into throwing. Speaking of Khalil Herbert, the Bears made a statement that suggested they’d like to see Herbert more involved in the running game, as he’s been more productive than Montgomery has. Montgomery has not seen more than 15 carries since the opener, and is averaging less than 4 yards per carry on the season. He’s also been dealing with a couple of nagging injuries that have him not looking like the explosive and tough runner we saw a season ago. The Patriots could very easily build a big lead in the game, essentially making the running game non-existent for the Bears. Even with a pretty low total, we’re going to fade Montgomery and the Bears in this game.

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