PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-2

SEASON RESULTS:
14-11

Week 4 Recap:

It was a good week for our player props, but should have been even better. Things started out with at void as Jaylen Warren was scratched in the Dublin game, leaving us with six other wagers in play. We’ll recap the four winners quickly, then dive into the two losers. Our first win was in fading Saquon Barkley and the slumping Eagles run game against a stout Tampa defense. Barkley never threatened and only got about half of his total. For the second week in a row, we rode Daniel Jones as the books simply haven’t beefed up his yardage numbers to where they should be yet. Next we won with Bijan Robinson’s reception prop, as the dynamic back went wild in the passing game to cover. It took Omarion Hampton a few series to get going, but boy did he ever explode, giving the Chargers a glimpse of what they may have there, and us an easy cover. Now for the two losses. We had Drake Maye’s yardage over, which he fell just a few yards shy of. The frustrating part is had Carolina put up any fight at all, Maye would have easily gone over the total. He only attempted 18 passes for the entire game. And lastly we lost by backing Brock Bowers. He was 9 yards shy of hit total, but had both a throw from Geno Smith that sailed over his head, and a catch nullified by an offensive hold that would have gotten there. At the end of the day, 4-2 is all that matters, but it’s good to know we were on the correct side in at least five of the six wagers.

Week 5 Preview:

The three weeks we’ve been pretty selective with our picks we’ve been profitable. The week we went big, we were not. So naturally, we’re rolling out 11 player props this weekend. No passing props, but a lot of running backs to keep an eye on. Fading some superstars, backing some youngsters. It’s either a really good sign, or a really bad sign when the props look as juicy as they do this weekend. We’ll know by Monday!

Our Picks:

Jordan Mason – Under 66.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

We’ve been all team Jordan Mason since the injury to his running mate Aaron Jones, but we’re hopping off the train in this matchup against the Browns. Cleveland has been ridiculously good at stopping the run through four games to the tune of just 281 yards allowed and 2.7 yards per carry. Couple that with the Vikings missing a couple of offensive linemen, and this looks like a tough spot for Mason, even though he should get a fair amount of work. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has been much better at time of possession since they’ve been running with their own young runner, Quinshon Judkins. (More on him in a minute). This game has the Vikings as just over a field goal favorite, so it’s not too likely Minnesota will get up huge and be in full running mode in the second half. Mason will get some totes, and some yards, but we’ll bank on the Browns continuing to keep the clamps on opposing runners in this game.

Quinshon Judkins – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

One running back who we’re jumping on the train with is Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins. After a holdout to start the season, he has come in and looked every bit the part of what you want out of a first round draft pick. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per carry, despite a couple of pretty tough opponents, and his carries have increased every week he’s been in uniform going from 10, to 18, to 21 last weekend. The Browns are starting rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel against the Vikings, and you know Cleveland will want to lean on their running game as much as they can to help the young QB. The interior of the Browns offensive line continues to play well led by their Pro Bowl guard tandem in the middle. Gabriel also has a bit of a threat to run as well, which means can’t completely put their focus just on Judkins in the run game. Even against a good Minnesota defense, if Judkins can get near 20 carries, he should be to eclipse 76.5 yards on the ground on Sunday morning.

Saquon Barkley – Under 82.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

We faded the great Saquon Barkley a week ago successfully, and we’re going to give it another try in week five. One of these weeks he’s going to break a couple of long runs and end up with 200 yards rushing, but we’re banking on a matchup here that it won’t be this week. And just like last week, we’re totally prepared if he embarrasses us with this fade. Despite being 4-0, this Eagles offense does not look like the dominant unit we saw last season during their march to the Lombardi trophy. Wide receiver A.J. Brown is getting vocal about not being a more focal point of the offense, which could lead to some more forced throwing when Philly has the ball. The Eagles have played some good run defenses, so that certainly plays a factor in the slow start for Barkley and the running game, but the Broncos certainly aren’t swiss cheese either as an opponent this weekend. Barkley is averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry, and the Eagles offensive line has watched Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson struggle with some early season nagging injuries. We won’t be surprised if Barkley still finds a way this year to end up with 1,400 yards rushing, but hopefully it’ll be at least another week before he gets things going.

Alvin Kamara – Over 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you haven’t watched the Saints this season, and let’s be honest, why would you? You might not see that running back Alvin Kamara is still really darn good at football. Even as he enters the downswing of his really great career, he’s still showing the balance, power and elusiveness that has made him great for all these years. He has a beautiful matchup on Sunday when the Saints host the New York Giants as they look to get into the win column. The Giants are coming off of an emotional home performance and upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers. This bet is really just a numbers and matchup play, along with game script. The Giants are unlikely to be dominating the Saints, which is how Kamara would be taken out of this game. With four quarters to play, Kamara should continue to see plenty of opportunities with the football in the run game. He’s averaging 4 yards per carry, and 16 attempts per game. We’re not math wizards here, but that is an average of nearly 64 yards per game. (It’s slightly less). That makes his total of 58.5 seem very do-able against the second worst run defense in the league. The Giants can get after opposing quarterbacks, but their loss of linebackers, and throw in the flu for DT Dexter Lawrence this week and the run game can hurt them. That’s evident by allowing over 600 yards through four games and over 6.1 yards per carry to opponents. Kamara should have one of is most productive games of the season in what the Saints hope is a chance to get their first win of the season.

Devon Achane – Over 107.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

You have to feel for the Miami Dolphins just a little bit. Right as their offense seems to start getting some momentum, they lose their game-breaking weapon when Tyreek Hill was lost for the season. All that means for Miami is that Jaylen Waddle and others are going to see an increase in their opportunities. One of those “others” would be the guy who is already featured, in running back Devon Achane. The speedy all-purpose back takes aim at the Carolina Panthers in one of the less talked about matchups of the weekend. What should be talked about is how appealing Devon Achane is for purposes of fantasy football, and in this case, backing his prop overs. Achane should do really well on the ground against the Panthers who rank 27th against the rush in terms of yardage, and worse in terms of EPA. We opted to take his total yardage rather than just his rushing because he’s so involved in the passing game, and could be even more involved without Hill. Head coach Mike McDaniel mentioned we could see Ollie Gordon and Achane in the backfield together, which means more receiving opportunities. Look for a lot of volume from Achane, and some nice results against a soft Panthers defense in a game both teams need to keep any semblance of their season alive.

Chase Brown – Under 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Cincinnati Bengals are an absolute mess right now without quarterback Joe Burrow leading their offense. The fact of the matter is, they’d still be a bit of a mess without an offensive line or a defense, but they’ve gone from blah, to gross really quickly with Jake Browning. It’s hard to throw the ball when you can’t block, and it’s even harder to run the ball when you can’t control the line of scrimmage. Now the Bengals have to face an aggressive Lions defense that is built to control that line of scrimmage, and it’s a pretty big mismatch in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That doesn’t bode well for running back Chase Brown, who is averaging just over 2 yards per carry. He’s yet to hit 50 yards rushing in a game this year, and Sunday doesn’t seem like a good spot for him to do that. Not only are the Lions good against the run, but they’re the largest favorites of the weekend. The Bengals could be down early, and by a lot, essentially taking the running game out of the equation. It feels like the only threat to this bet hitting, would be if Brown received some garbage time carries with the game way out of hand. That’s a chance we’ll take as the matchup is just to good here.

Jake Ferguson – Over 46.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

One of the most popular players in fantasy land this week is Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson. We were also on this bandwagon early in the week as Ferguson has both a great matchup, and plenty of workload. George Pickens did well in picking up the slack for the injured CeeDee Lamb last week, but he’s going to be spending a lot of time facing off against Sauce Gardner. With Lamb and Kevontae Turpin both out, that limits where quarterback Dak Prescott can go with the football. One of the places he loves to look is to his tight end Jake Ferguson, who is putting together a good early start to the season. When you look at that, and the fact the Jets are not very good at defending opposing tight ends, this seems like an almost too obvious spot to back Ferguson. We’re riding with the pros and the Joes, both of who seem to love Ferguson this week. Everyone in America is on the Cowboys tight end, what could possibly go wrong, right?

Garrett Wilson – Over 5.5 Yards Receptions (-115)

Another player that has a juicy matchup in the Cowboys and Jets game is New York wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Despite the Jets struggles, and very limited quarterback play, Wilson is still putting up some decent numbers as their number one receiving weapon. It’s no secret the Cowboys secondary has struggled mightily, and Wilson is one of the top players they’ll face through the first five weeks. Despite mostly besting his reception and yardage totals, Wilson’s numbers haven’t changed much this year by the sportsbooks. It’s kind of understandable as you’d think teams could figure out a way to take him away, without any other receiving threats on the roster, but again it speaks to how well Wilson has played. Even without CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys are an “over” type team, so there should be some offense and points in this game. For a player who has routinely beaten his manageable numbers, we’ll back him to keep that trend going against Dallas.

Derrick Henry – Under 86.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Saquon Barkley isn’t the only All-Pro running back to struggle out of the gate, as the Ravens Derrick Henry has also been very pedestrian after ripping through the Buffalo Bills on opening weekend. The Ravens have had a little bit of a new and banged up offensive line, and have missed fullback Patrick Ricard, but it’s still concerning that King Henry hasn’t been able to bully his way to success standing behind Lamar Jackson. This weekend it appears he’s going to have to try to get going behind Cooper Rush as Jackson looks as though his hamstring may keep him sidelined. For Henry, that’s good and that’s bad. On the plus side, one would have to imagine they’re going to force feed Henry the ball a whole lot, giving him lots of opportunities to succeed. The downside is, without Lamar Jackson, the dual threat goes away, so he’s likely to see a lot of stacked boxes against the Houston Texans. The defense for Houston is better against the pass than the run, but they’re solid there too. In facing Cooper Rush, look for the Texans to rely on their talented secondary to match up, and safety help with an eye to take away Henry. Much like Barkley, Henry has the ability to go for 200 yards in any given game, but with a total in the mid 80’s after going for 23, 50 and 42 yards, respectively, we’ll try the under and hope he doesn’t get 30 carries in this matchup.

David Montgomery – Over 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Lions are the largest favorites of the weekend not only because their opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals is weak, but because they’re a pretty complete team that can do everything well. Perhaps what they do best and most consistently though is running the football. That starts with Jahmyr Gibbs, but includes David Montgomery, who makes the most of his limited chances with the football. Despite getting locked down last week against that ridiculous Browns run defense, Montgomery is still averaging 5.7 yards per rush, and getting 10+ carries per game on average. The Lions should absolutely blow the Bengals both off the ball at the line of scrimmage, and off the scoreboard on Sunday. That means the Lions potentially giving a little less work to Gibbs and a little more to Montgomery. In a similar situation against the Ravens, Montgomery exploded for 151 yards in that AFC North road matchup. Week five could see the heaviest usage for Montgomery, and with the advantage the Lions have in the trenches, and potentially with the game script, don’t be shocked if Montgomery balls out again.

Josh Allen – Over 28.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you’ve followed the BetCrushers for a while, you’re well aware that we absolutely love backing rushing totals for dual-threat quarterbacks in important and nationally televised games. This would qualify for both for Bills signal-caller Josh Allen as he faces division rival New England on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots are coming into the game confident, as second year quarterback Drake Maye is playing well, and they’re ready to put up a fight for the AFC East crown against the Bills. This is a big game as if the Bills win, they essentially open up an early three game lead, and can probably lock things up early on this season. If the Patriots win, it becomes a .5 game lead for the Bills, and oh by the way, the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the league the rest of the way, and would have a ton of confidence. Allen has been more selective with his running, but if you caught the run he made last week in a big spot against the Saints, you can see he’s still more than capable. In primetime games, quarterbacks don’t like to force throws that could be turnovers. Additionally, the Bills receiving group is not one of the better units at creating separation. All of that adds up to Josh Allen having to put the cape on a bit, which includes tucking the football and running with it. He’s hit 30 yards or more rushing in 3 of the 4 games he’s played so far this year, and this absolutely seems like one where he is going to have to carry the load. History is on his side as well, as he topped 30 yards rushing in both matchups against the Patriots a season ago.

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