PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-3
SEASON RESULTS:
1-3
Week 1 Recap:
We purposely went a little light with our props in week one to evaluate some trends, but got tempted and added Jonathan Taylor on “X” (twitter) on Sunday giving us for total plays for the day. Taylor was held in check, which took what would have been a 1-2 day to a very disappointing 1-3 day. Our favorite bet of the week was the one that cashed, as Kenneth Walker III was featured and ran hard soaring past his yardage total on the way to a 100 yard day. We fell just short with Bills wideout Khalil Shakir, who managed only 43 yards, falling a few short of his total. And the big miss of the weekend was Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. He was targeted only twice, and caught just one ball for a measly five yards, as an essential non-factor in their game with the Dolphins.
Week 2 Preview:
Five bets on tap for week number two, including fading a multiple MVP quarterback. There is an old saying about “chasing” the points when it comes to prop bets and fantasy football. We’re doing a little of that with a pair of running backs, but the matchups are simply too good to ignore. Throw in a receiver that flies well below the radar and that’s what we’re targeting. Cheers to week number two!
Our Picks:
Isiah Pacheco – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Running back Isiah Pacheco’s yardage can often be a bit of a rollercoaster when you look at his career statistics game to game. What is a lot steadier however is his usage and carries per game. In simple terms, Pacheco is going to get some totes of the rock in every game the Chiefs play. Pacheco’s snap count in week one was as high as he’s seen in his career thus far. He had to fight for yardage against a tough Ravens defense, but should find more success this Sunday against the rival Bengals. Cincinnati was unable to contain Rhamondre Stevenson in their opener despite knowing he was getting the ball early and often. The loss of D.J. Reader in the middle of their defensive line is proving to be a massive blow in their run defense, and against a physical back like Pacheco, it will show up again. As mentioned above, Pacheco’s up and down yardage totals basically go as his opponents run defense goes. He shreds soft rushing defenses, and struggles against stout defenses. The Bengals are likely to finish the season in the bottom third in run defense, which means this should absolutely be an Isiah Pacheco type game for Kansas City.
Joe Mixon – Over 69.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The Texans offense was already going to be good heading into the 2024 season, and all they did in week one is produce the AFC offensive player of the week when Joe Mixon went nuclear against the Indianapolis Colts. Mixon is the beneficiary of what defenses have to do against the high-flying passing weapons of the Texans, which is play a soft cover defensive scheme. Mixon will see more of this against the Chicago Bears in a game where the Texans are nearly a touchdown favorite. The Bears have a solid defense overall, but they are definitely weaker versus the run than they are the pass. Mixon won’t always be racking up 100+ yard days this season, but look for a 20 carry game in what should be a Texans win in primetime against the Bears. With that kind of workload, he really just needs to average slightly over three yards a carry to bring this cover home.
J.K. Dobbins – Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
We previewed this weekend by talking about “chasing the points”, and there is no better example of this than Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins. Off of a second major surgery, Dobbins looked explosive and determined breaking some long runs in his LA debut against the Raiders. Sunday he has another very appealing matchup against a Carolina Panthers team that was trounced in their opener. Carolina has it’s top interior defender, Derrick Brown on injured reserve, and it’s defensive line without Brown is arguably the weakest in the entire league. Dobbins should see a lot of work, especially if the Chargers are up in this game, as the Saints were against the Panthers one week ago. Yes, it’s true Gus Edwards had a higher workshare than Dobbins, but it was pretty clear who the more dynamic runner is in this offense. Look for Dobbins to get some more work in this game, and with a total just over the half-century mark, Dobbins should be able to push by this one.
Patrick Mahomes – Under 272.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Yes, fading the top players in the league is never a great strategy for long-term betting success. However, picking the spots can work if you’re ok with looking foolish if things don’t work out the way you’re anticipating. It’s absolutely possibly in any given week that Patrick Mahomes can toss for 400 yards, as he’s obviously elite and has more weapons this year than he had a season ago. This matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals realistically shouldn’t be one of those performances where Mahomes has to go crazy throwing the football. In fact, in his last 5 starts against the Bengals, Mahomes has not topped this 272.5 yard threshold in any of them, landing more in the 225-250ish range in general. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will be scheming to keep Mahomes under wraps. The Chiefs should be able to run the football in this game, and there is a good chance they’ll also be leading. Unless Xavier Worthy gets loose for an 80 yard touchdown (yes this is possible), we’re figuring on a more efficient game for Mahomes, rather than a monstrous performance.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
The New York Giants are a bit of a dumpster-fire at the moment and despite what owners say, have a quarterback and head coach on the hot seat. They have what could almost be considered a must-win game against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, where quarterback Daniel Jones really needs to perform at a decent level. Fortunately for Jones and the Giants, they’ll take aim at a defense that doesn’t have the most amazing pass rush, and one of the weakest secondarys in the entire league. Rookie Malik Nabers could really shine in this game, but we’re going with one of the other pass catchers to top a receptions props. Dating back to his last seven games, Wan’Dale Robinson has gotten no less than 6 targets in any contest, and had a dozen in week number one. In averaging 8 targets during that span, Robinson would need to snag half of them to hit this over. The matchup lends itself to Robinson being able to get a lot of looks and a lot of volume. Nabers may draw all the attention, but it could be Robinson that gets to the pay window with this bet.
