PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-6

SEASON RESULTS:
2-6

Week 1 Recap:

Not the best start to the season with our player prop bets, in what was unfortunately a slow start again for us in this market. Actually, if we’re being honest, it was a horrendous start and we’re pretty sick about the posted numbers at the top of this page. With some of the uncertainty of a week one, we opted to perhaps get a little too aggressive and unorthodox with our plays. What we did see was a lot of consistently high achieving stars providing a lot of nice stat-lines. You know it might be a rough day when you start with losing by the hook, which is exactly what happened as T.J. Hockenson was only able to secure 4 catches, not surpassing the 4.5 needed. We had a nice early bounceback with one of our superstar players as Jonathan Taylor ran straight through the Texans defense all day. David Montgomery was also a nice no-sweat winner as he caught an early pass and took it 16 yards leading to his cover of the number. There were a couple of ugly losses starting with Trevor Lawrence rushing prop as the 2nd year QB only tucked the ball twice and never got anything going. Playing a non-running quarterback is always risky, we were simply playing the numbers, which didn’t work out. Christian McCaffrey was mostly stymied by a stingy Browns defense as he wasn’t nearly as involved in check down throws or planned screens as we had suspected. Monday Night Football was also a bust as Russell Wilson didn’t utilize his legs as we fully expected him to do in his return game to Seattle.

Week 2 Preview:

We opted for a six-pack of plays this week and keyed in on some quarterback unders as well as an anytime touchdown scorer with good odds. We’re going to try to continue to ride the production of a couple of the league’s best, and mixed in an under the radar wide receiver. The hardest part of selecting our player props for this Sunday was not trying to climb back too quickly after the bad start in week one. Is it asking too much to sweep the card this week?

Our Picks:

Tom Brady – Under 272.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Might as well get the hate mail out of the way early with a fade of the greatest quarterback in the history of the game. The Buccaneers head to New Orleans with the goal of figuring out how to beat this divisional rival, after some rough showings the past couple of seasons. The Saints defense has had Tom Brady’s number, and the crowd in the Bayou will be fired up for their home opener. While this isn’t quite the same imposing Saints defense we’ve gotten used to, it’s still pretty good. The Bucs enter the game without Chris Godwin, and an already not 100% Julio Jones. We saw in week one Tampa wanted to establish the run, and they did so effectively. This is a good method when you have some questions on the interior of the offensive line. Overall, this should be a bit of a slugfest, and we’re expecting a bit of a struggle through the air for Brady. Anytime you’re betting against Brady, you’re taking a true gamble, let’s hope the handicapping holds true for the expected result.

Jonathan Taylor – Over 100.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Two seasons ago Derrick Henry was about as guaranteed of a 100 yard rusher as you’d find in the league. That honor is now passed to his division peer Jonathan Taylor, who absolutely shredded the Texans in week one for 161 rushing yards on 31 attempts. The Colts face their own thorn in the side when they face off in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team they haven’t beaten there since 2014. They received some disappointing news when clear number one WR Michael Pittman, Jr. was ruled out of the contest with injury. Without a lot of proven depth at the receiver position, Taylor could be in line for another 30 carry game in Jacksonville. A season ago Taylor averaged 5.3 yards per rush against this Jaguars defense. If that math holds to form, he’d get there with 19 carries, which is a lot less than we’d expect him to receive here.

Deebo Samuel – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120)

After a disappointing loss, the San Francisco 49ers return home for what is a now needed win showdown with the Seattle Seahawks. There are still some questions around quarterback Trey Lance after a poor performance in week one and a not so flattering video of him surfaced mid-week. One thing that will not be a question is the involvement of Deebo Samuel in this offense. Samuel could see some increased workload at running back with the absence of starting RB Eli Mitchell, and also has a matchup advantage against the young Seahawks secondary. The prospects are strong a a whole for Deebo in this game, however it’s tough to know if he’ll be more active as a receiver or as a running back. Because of that, we’re playing him as an anytime touchdown scorer with a reasonable juice of -120. If anyone is going to get into the end zone for the 49ers in this matchup, Deebo is clearly the odds on favorite. We’re clearly planning on seeing the Deebo touchdown graphic on the screen in week two.

Tua Tagavailoa – Under 253.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The weapons and speed were on display for the Dolphins in their impressive week one win against the New England Patriots. As a result, we saw Tua throw fairly easily for over 270 yards, in an encouraging sign for him and the Dolphin’s organization. He has another tough assignment this week when the Dolphins hit the road to take on a quality Baltimore Ravens team. The Ravens have already been bitten by the injury bug in their secondary losing some valuable depth, and starter Marcus Peters is limping into the contest. Despite this, we’re going to fade Tua in what figures to be a more of a running game than a passing game. It’s important to note that despite the quality numbers in week one, Tua still did not push the ball down field. That means in order for him to put up big passing yardage numbers, he really needs his receivers to break some big runs. That’s certainly a possibility, but we’re going to peg him for closer to 220-230 yards passing in this game, giving us a little cushion with an under play.

Donovan Peoples-Jones – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

If any team is going to take the air out of the ball and hand it off repeatedly, it’s clearly the Cleveland Browns. They managed to pull out a win in their opener behind a lot of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Even though prized acquisition Amari Cooper was a non-factor, he should still draw some attention against the Jets in week two. That will open things up again for his counterpart Donovan People-Jones, who made a couple of nice catches against the Panthers. DPJ is essentially the deep threat for the Browns and with an over/under at just 31.5 yards he could beat this mark with one grab of the football. His reception total is juiced heavily over at 2.5 which means there’s a really good chance he’s going to grab at least 3 footballs in this game. If that’s the case he simply needs to average 11 yards per catch, which is much lower than his career average. We can’t lie, it’s a little scary betting on a Browns wide receiver, but this just seems to be too low of a number to not take a flyer with the over on.

Cooper Kupp – Over 93.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Much like Jonathan Taylor is the automatic 100 yard man in terms of rushing each week, Cooper Kupp is that on the receiving end for the Los Angeles Rams. Even though the Rams looked subpar in their season kickoff game against the Bills, Kupp still shined racking up yards on some really impressive catches. As Matthew Stafford works to gain confidence in his offensive line and other receivers, he’ll continue to look Kupp’s way often. The Falcons do have A.J. Terrell at the corner, however beyond that it looked really questionable in terms of talent. The Rams should have a nice bounce-back game as the Falcons have to travel across the country, and Kupp will certainly figure into the gameplan. Win or lose, we’ll never regret taking an over with Cooper Kupp.

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