PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
0-3

SEASON RESULTS:
35-27

Week 10 Recap

We’ve had some not great performances on Prop Corner, but it’s been a long time since we’ve hit the unfortunate reverse sweep. We had a small slate with only 3 player props, but we ended up getting skunked and missing on all three plays. Our first play was the early morning Sunday game as we were fading Daniel Jones yardage total, which actually would have hit. However, the game ended up in overtime, which allowed Jones a few extra attempts that pushed him just over his mark. We were then backing James Cook in a game where the Bills were surprisingly flat, and Cook was unable to really ever get things going. And lastly, we lost by backing Jordan Addison, who got off to a painfully slow start. He managed to grab a couple nice passes in the second half of the game, but that wasn’t quite enough as he fell just short. I guess if we’re going to take a goose egg, doing it on a week with just three plays is the time to do it.

Week 11 Preview:

Let’s see if we can get back on track as the NFL season begins to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Not a lot of huge marquee household names on the slate, but we’re looking at some really slim numbers. We are backing five player overs, and fading one rookie, so what could possibly go wrong?

Our Picks:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Over 32.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

It’s safe to say Commanders rookie “Bill” Croskey-Merritt isn’t going to live up to his preseason hype as the breakout running star many crowned him with heading into the year. That’s not to say he hasn’t been a solid player, or that he can’t still be productive, despite the Commanders disappointing season. Croskey-Merritt is averaging a very solid 4.5 yards per carry on the season, and has shown some flashes when he’s been on the field. JCM has a paltry rushing total of just 32.5 yards set for his showdown against the Dolphins on a neutral field Sunday. That total makes sense as he’s struggled the last month or so, with the inconsistencies in his team’s offense. When you dig deeper however, his struggles have come against some really good run defenses, in games where the Commanders were blown out. The Dolphins should put up a little less resistance, as they’ve largely struggled all season. They’re also coming off of an emotional win against the Bills, which could lead to a bit of a letdown in week eleven. We’re not expecting a monster performance from Croskey-Merritt, but surely he can over 32 yards rushing against this Miami defense, right?

Jaylen Warren – Over 99.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

If you were randomly suggesting to bet Jaylen Warren to hit 100 yards in any specific game, we’d be betting unders routinely. Thing is, this is no random week as Warren will face off against arguably the worst defense in the league when the Steelers take on the Bengals. We have some recent sample work to review as Warren saw the Bengals less than a month ago in a game where he rushed for a season-high 127 yards, and added 31 more in the passing game. Now, playing at home in some colder weather, Warren should once again thrive against that soft Cincinnati run defense that is allowing over 5.5 yards per carry to opposing backs. While you can look to play his lower rushing total, we opted for his total yardage as he’s both a dual threat player, but also as the Bengals have also struggled to stop backs out of the backfield receiving. If you’ve been following Prop Corner this season you’ve caught on to our trend of not overthinking it in terms of the Bengals opponents. We’re loading up on their running back challengers often, and finding success more often than defeat.

Josh Jacobs – Over 79.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Speaking of jumping on a running back who is playing a poor run defense, enter our next player prop, in Josh Jacobs over 79.5 yards rushing. That total is a little higher than where we’d want to take it for a back averaging under 4 yards per carry, but this bet is all about the opponent again. The New York Giants are also allowing a league worst 5.5 yards per carry and rank last in total rushing yards allowed as well as defensive rushing EPA. The Packers are in need of a win, and are still banged up at the wide receiver position, and are adjusting to life without one of their top weapons without tight end Tucker Kraft. In the cold New Jersey fall, expect for Jacobs to see a hefty workload as he normally does. He’s had at least 16 carries in all but two games this season for reference. Jacobs has yet to hit the 100 yard mark in a game, and his lack of breakaway home run threat speed plays a part in this. Volume should get him to this number however, as it’s very possible he has his most productive day this season. The most similar defense he faced, was in fact the Cincinnati Bengals, where he had a season high in yards, with 93 and yards per carry at 5.3 per attempt. We’re looking at a similar stat line in this contest to hopefully get a cover.

Cam Ward – Under 189.5 Yards Passing (-115)

There’s been a lot of talk this week regarding Titans quarterback Cam Ward, and if it’s already fair to label him a bust. For what it’s worth, Ward hasn’t looked good, however can you really judge him with the WR room he has, lack of a running game, and dysfunction at the coaching position and in the front office? Anyhow, on to the importance of why fading him in their matchup against the Texans just makes too much sense. Ward has actually been putting up better yardage totals over the last month or so of the season, but we’re not afraid to go against him, even with a sub 190 yard passing total. Ward has to face arguably the league’s top pass defense, that can both get after the QB, and lock down opposing receivers in the secondary. Combine that with what we mentioned before regarding the Titans wide receiver group, and it’s tough to see him having much success on Sunday. In their first matchup in week four, Ward had his worst statistical output of the season, completing just 38.5% of his passes for 108 yards and a passer rating of 35.4. The Texans can make even the best quarterbacks in the league look bad, so stopping a rookie without a supporting cast is almost not fair. It’s really tough to see Ward making anything happen in this game, so we’ll definitely go against him with some confidence.

Christian Watson – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

It can be a little counter-intuitive to take an over on both the running back and a receiver on the same team in a game, but the New York Giants defense is really that bad. We talked about that with Josh Jacbos, so no need to re-hash there, but we’ll explain why we’re giving Christian Watson a play this weekend. The Packers are without Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft, and rookie Matthew Golden is questionable to play on Sunday. Furthermore, potential top target Romeo Doubs has been limited in practice all week so it’s tough to say if he’ll be at full speed or snap count. That leaves a somewhat forgotten Christian Watson as one of the top passing weapons in the offense when the Packers have to throw. Watson has been largely unimpressive since some early breakout performances in his career, but it’s more due to injuries than anything else. This is the healthiest Watson has been, and he’s likely to see a lot of single coverage with the Giants needing to contain Josh Jacobs and focusing on Doubs, if he’s in the lineup. For this prop Watson simply needs to get to 35 yards receiving, a number that he’s fast enough to potentially hit on any given play. Watson has gotten 4 targets in each of the three games he’s played this season, and he could see even more in this contest. His three yardage performances have been 85, 58, and 45 yards, respectively. There’s little to believe based on circumstance, playing time and opponent to think he cant top a mid 30’s total once again versus the Giants.

Devonta Smith – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

You may have caught some of the antics of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown this week as he’s once again let his frustrations be known regarding his role in the Eagles offense. We can understand, as when you speak of the Eagles receivers, you generally state they have A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Well, we probably need to shuffle those around and start saying they have Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown, as at this point in the season, it’s pretty apparent Smith is actually the true WR1 on the roster. He leads in targets, receptions and yards, and is clearly the player Jalen Hurts looks to when he needs to throw. As physically gifted as A.J. Brown is, it’s easy to forget that Smith is ridiculously talented as well, as his speed, route-running and hands are all elite. Remember he’s a college legend and first round pick himself. The Eagles host the Lions in one of the premier games of the weekend, and the Eagles are going to have to throw the ball some, maybe even more than they’d like. The Lions are likely to put some points on the board on their end, which means Philly can’t just hand the ball to Saquon Barkley 25 times, as they’d like to do. Despite a pretty large sample size this year, A.J. Brown is still predicted to have more catches/yards than Smith by most outlets, which leaves some value with Smith’s yardage total. Sure, it’s possible Brown’s vocalness results in some more looks in his direction, but there should be enough to go around regardless. If you want to dig into the numbers, Smith is averaging 73 yards receiving per game, and ranks 13th in the entire league. These are numbers that should have his total closer to the 70 yard mark, so it really feels like we’re getting 10 to 15 yards of value with this bet. The number is simply too good to pass up on this one.

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