PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3
SEASON RESULTS:
35-26
Week 9 Recap:
We followed up a bad prop betting week with a not-so-great prop betting week landing at 2-3 for a loss on the weekend. We won’t cry about it as it was what it was, but for the second straight week we lost a yardage bet by .5 yards with Kareem Hunt’s over. The Browns running back was sitting at 38 yards, needing to hit 39 with a sizeable lead and six minutes left in the game, but Jerome Ford got all of the final touches and Hunt couldn’t cross the mark. We rebounded with a pretty easy cover on Saquon Barkley’s yardage total as he was featured early and often en route to covering, but lost with Adam Thielen as he finished with just five catches, falling short of his 6.5 mark. We also lost a bet we really liked with Derek Carr as opting to play his yardage total rather than his TD total ended up being a loss. We did finish with a win on Sunday night as Dalton Kincaid continues to cash as we’re now a perfect 5-0 playing him this season. The books are catching up on him now, but we rode that one while we could. Not a good weekend, but nothing too terrible either. Now we need to really turn things around.
Week 10 Preview:
All positive vibes this weekend as we strive towards a plus .500 weekend with our seven player props. We’ve got a pair of rookies we’re backing, a new one and we’re back to the well with another for the sixth time this season. Other than that, we’re backing some of the league’s top players, including a duo of running backs who should be in like to catch the ball a lot this weekend. If it feels like it’s a crazy week, we’re also riding with a quarterback who had a 95 yard output just a few weeks ago. Timing is everything, right?
Our Picks:
Will Levis – Over 221.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Thanks for the memories, Ryan Tannehill? After a pair of back-to-back quality performances from Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis, he’s officially been announced the starter by head coach Mike Vrabel. Originally, we were willing to give Tannehill the benefit of the doubt with his lackluster performances based on poor offensive line plan and game planning. However, we’ll admit that seems wrong at this point, as Levis just seems to make the passing game easier for the Titans. What’s potentially even better news for the young QB is he’ll be playing against a Buccaneers defense that gave up 470 yards to a rookie quarterback just seven days prior. We’re certainly not expecting Levis to match C.J. Stroud’s historic performance, but it feels like a spot where he should at the very least be able to be average? For him, that means getting 250 yards, which is what he’s done in his first team appearances with the Titans. The Bucs secondary after Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield, Jr. is flat out not very good. Additionally, they’ve been very shaky generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s a formula for giving up some yards through the air. Todd Bowles defense will be looking to lock down Derrick Henry first and foremost, and they may have some success there. That should result in even more attempts for Levis. Let’s see if the youngster can keep the pass offense for the Titans progressing on Sunday.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Jacksonville Jaguars will attempt to do something no other team has really been able to do this season, and that’s shut down 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. Shutting down McCaffrey is of course easier said than done because of the variable facets of what he can do on the football field. Sure, the Jags are downright stingy against the run, allowing just over 3.5 yards per carry, so it’s certainly reasonable to think McCaffrey may not have a ton of yardage there. Head coach Kyle Shanahan knows how to make McCaffrey productive even in tough matchups like this one. CMC should be a pretty focal target with some designed passes, including screens and option routes. The 49ers absolutely need a win after dropping three straight so there won’t be any holding back on getting their best player the football. Don’t be shocked if McCaffrey has more receiving yards in this game than he does rushing. We’re pretty much betting on it.
Aaron Jones – Over 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Packers wasted little time re-inserting Aaron Jones into the gameplan as he returned with 20 carries for 73 yards against the Rams last week. Jones said overall he felt good and is looking forward to gaining strength as the season goes on. He has a pretty inviting matchup with the Steelers this weekend where it’s very possible he could wind up with around 20 carries again. If that indeed happens, he wouldn’t even need to average 3 yards per carry to eclipse this total that seems far too low. If you’re worrying about the Steelers defense holding him under that average, let’s just get it out there that this is not the Steel Curtain defense we’re used to seeing in Pittsburgh. They are actually somewhat soft against the run, and not having Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end also hurts their ability to bring extra support into the box. On the opposite side, the Steelers aren’t always great at sustaining offense of their own, which means the Packers should have plenty of time of possession to stay committed to the run. We can question some of the decisions of the Packers coaching staff, but we all know having Jordan Love chased by T.J. Watt and company is a pretty terrible strategy when you can unleash Aaron Jones on a suspect run defense.
Austin Ekeler – Over 36.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Austin Ekeler is coming off of one of his worst games catching the football as he dropped three passes against the Jets. The important thing to note if you want to bet his receiving total over this weekend is despite ending with 23 yards last week he had 7 targets. That’s stacked up behind of 8 targets the week before. With wide receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer not in the lineup, Ekeler becomes option number two in the passing game behind Keenan Allen. His opponent in week 10 is a Detroit Lions team that has been surprisingly stout stopping opponents from running. This is really a simple math formula. An inability to run the football, a lack of receiving weapons, and a player that has been getting heavily targeted. Give us those receiving yards for Ekeler as he won’t drop three passes in his hands for a second week in a row.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Over 82.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
He’s starting to be more recognized amongst the top receivers in the league, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is still vastly underrated compared to some of his peers. In the six games he played start to finish this year, he has had at least 100 receiving yards in five of them, a pretty darn good percentage. He’ll aim to make that six out of seven when the Lions travel to LA to face a Chargers team that put the clamps on the Jets a week prior. This Lions offense is no Jets offense though, as their offensive line can hold up against the pass rush of the Chargers. With time to throw, Jared Goff should have little trouble getting the ball to St. Brown versus a secondary that has been inconsistent to be kind. St. Brown is a zone killer, and the Chargers play more cover four and cover six zone than any team in the entire league. Goff and St. Brown should be able to find the soft spots in those zones and we’re expecting the Lions receiver to find his way to a triple digit yardage game once again.
Dalton Kincaid – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
Not to take a total victory lap, but if you caught our play on Dalton Kincaid a week ago it was pretty spot on. His weekly totals continue climbing and they’re almost to where the books have adjusted properly. Almost. Kincaid’s reception total which was 2.5, then 3.5 is now settling in at 4.5 and even higher on a few sites that have caught on. Kincaid is now the second option in the Bills passing game behind Stefon Diggs, and is only improving with each week. When you examine his matchup with the Broncos, it lines up for another successful outing. Patrick Surtain II will be spending a lot of time with Stefon Diggs, which could limit the amount of targets he receives. Kareem Jackson is out in the Broncos secondary, and their linebackers are not highly rated in coverage. Having gotten 8, 7, and 11 targets since the injury to Dawson Knox, and snagging at least 5 catches in all of those games, there’s little reason to believe he won’t be able to do it again.
Russell Wilson – Over 210.5 Yards Passing (-115)
When bashing Russell Wilson became fashionable a couple of years ago, it was almost sad to watch his decline from a star to ineptness at the quarterback position. If you haven’t been paying attention, Wilson is quietly putting together a pretty nice season (16 TD to 4 Int), and is definitely not the main issue with the Broncos. He’ll be featured on Monday Night Football in a tough road matchup against a Bills team that is regressing big-time on the defensive side of the ball due to some massive injuries. In fact, Buffalo will likely be without seven opening day starters on their defense, and a couple others playing less than 100%. Since the Bills lost Tre White, Matt Milano and Daquan Jones, they have been basically picked apart by opposing quarterbacks, and that includes guys like Mac Jones. Wilson should have little trouble keeping the chains moving and while it will take some volume, he should hit enough intermediate passes to stretch past the 210.5 yard marker. Denver is likely to have to be throwing as touchdown underdogs, and if you look at Wilson’s stats he’s throwing for way more yardage in games they’ve lost than won. In their three wins he’s averaging around 170 yards passing per game. In their five losses it’s closer to 230, and that includes a complete dud of a 95 yard effort against Kansas City. Russ may not be cooking, but he’ll at least be snacking a bit on Monday night.
