PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
7-7

Week 2 Recap:

It’s always disappointing to be sub .500 when betting, but it stings a lot more when you’re on the right side and should have pocketed some money. Week 2 ended up 2-3 with our prop bets as Travis Kelce and John Brown were solid covers. Our three losses were beyond frustrating as at least two, if not all three should have come through. Eli Manning under 244.5 passing yards looked great as he had zero yards after the first quarter and 140 with 5 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately, trailing by multiple scores he was able to rack up 110 yards in those final five minutes. None more frustrating than on the last play of the game with 3 seconds remaining when the Bills dropped thirty yards downfield and Manning checked it down picking up 30 meaningless yards to crack the 244.5. Tis the life of a sports bettor, even when you nail the pick you don’t always win. Our other two plays (Robert Woods and Paul Richardson over catches) both cracked their numbers but had multiple catches called back on penalties. Richardson’s was really painful as his catch on the final drive put him over, only to be called back by a pretty weak holding call. It’s a long season so .500 after two weeks isn’t the end of the world, but we’re ready to make some progress into the green in week three.

Week 3 Preview:

Week three traditionally seems to be when prop betting becomes a little easier. After a couple of games you start to get a good feel for both players and more importantly where teams strengths and weaknesses are. With some major injuries in week two, particularly at the quarterback position, it does limit certain plays that may have been on the table before. For Sunday’s card we’ve picked through every game to find some plays that we thing have a great chance of going over. Here’s a look at the eight plays we’ve got going for week three:

Our Picks:

Carlos Hyde – Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Every so often a potential play comes around that you feel you have to load up on. In week 3 we’ve got one of those circled involving Carlos Hyde of all people. Hyde has been a man on a mission to prove he belongs in this league and is off to a really nice start since his trade to the Texans. Up next is a showdown with the Chargers who have been getting run through defensively through their first two games this season. Los Angeles tends to play close games so the running game should be in play for the duration and Hyde is clearly the number one man in Houston as teammate Duke Johnson is primarily playing only on third downs and obvious passing situations. It would not be surprising if Hyde is pushing a 100 yard game in this one so getting to 59 yards leaves a big margin for error on our end. We’re loaded up on this one and you probably should too.

Adam Thielen – Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

If you’ve paid close attention to the Vikings you’ve probably noticed a couple of key trends in relation to this prop bet. First, quarterback Kirk Cousins, and the entire Vikings team is substantially better at home than on the road. This is particularly true when they play non-playoff type teams, like they’ll be playing Sunday against the Raiders. The other trend is that Thielen and Diggs almost eerily go back and forth on who the key target and producer is as the WR position. Last week Diggs was the main man in Green Bay while Thielen was rather quiet. Throw in the fact that Oakland has been pretty strong so far against the run this season and you have a recipe for Thielen having a big day.

John Brown – Over 4 Catches (-125)

We’ve been rolling on the John Brown train the first two weeks of the season and we’re not jumping off yet. Brown is the clear number one receiver in Buffalo and he has a great matchup against the Bengals on Sunday. Josh Allen is proving he is not just a threat with his legs and has looked really solid throwing the ball, with Brown being his number one target. The sportsbooks haven’t adjusted yet to Brown as he looks like he should be routinely snagging 6 passes each week. We’ll keep playing this prop until it isn’t working, but expect for it to work again this week.

Kenny Golladay – 5.5 Catches (EVEN)

We discussed earlier the prop sportsbooks not fully catching up to players that are making an impact and here is another case in point. Kenny Golladay is really starting to develop into a top five to ten receiver type receiver this season. Throw in the fact some of the big names have been a little slow out of the gate and the quarterback injuries impacting some of the other folks and it’s not crazy to think Golladay will be near the top of the WR leaderboard at the end of the season. This week he faces an Eagles secondary that has been repeatedly torched by opposing receivers for the past 12 months. Additionally, the Eagles defensive line is a little thin due to injury so the pass rush may not get home as well as it normally would for them allowing QB Matt Stafford extra time to look down the field. With the Lions tendencies to abandon the running game, which could be expedited with a solid Eagles run defense look for Golladay to get a lot of looks and targets. He’s even money on Bovada to go over 5.5 and that’s enough for us to take a shot with him here.

Daniel Jones – Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

The Daniel Jones era begins Sunday in Tampa for the New York Giants as the rookie who shined in the preseason will get his first career start when it counts. Tampa Bay has been much improved and healthier than a season ago defensively under new coordinate Todd Bowles and head coach Bruce Arians. We’ve seen over the years that rookie quarterbacks often have trouble with their progressions and are generally quick to pull it down and take off on the ground. Jones ran the ball quite a bit during his career at Duke so he’s definitely athletic enough to pick up yardage on the ground. Look for him to take off when the throws aren’t there and he should be able to crack this total.

Zach Ertz – Over 6 Catches (-115)

While the final inactive report has yet to be released at the time of this article, it looks like both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery will be missing for the Eagles in their game against the Lions. That’s going to make for an uphill battle for Carson Wentz and this offense as we saw how the struggled against a less than formidable Falcons defense on Sunday night without their top two wideouts. What we did see when they left the game was Wentz continually looking in the direction of his favorite target and even forcing it to him a bit. Zach Ertz could very possibly lead the league in targets this weekend and while six catches is nothing to slouch at for an over prop, expect him to exceed that. His yardage could be in question, but 8+ catches seems very feasible for this game.

Buffalo Bills – Over 3.5 Sacks (-125)

The Buffalo Bills have their first game at home after a 2-0 start to the season which has the Bills Mafia fired up and ready to make some noise. The battle in the trenches is a complete mismatch as the Bills have depth at defensive line while the Bengals offensive line is one of the poorest in the league, not helped by injuries. The Bills defense has racked up sacks and turnovers at a far higher clip at home as you might expect and this battle with the Bengals should be no exception to that rule. The Bengals have given up 9 sacks in their first two games and figure to be throwing the ball a lot again Sunday. If you do the math on this one, the Bills should be able to get to four sacks to push this one over even at the risk of the higher juice of -125.

Aaron Jones – Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Aaron Jones has gotten off to a pretty average start in his 2019 campaign as he’s had 36 carries for 155 yards through two games. When you look at their opponents it actually is pretty solid work as running against the Bears and Vikings in their division is no easy task. Week three brings the Denver Broncos to town in a game that really lines up favorably for Green Bay. Denver has struggled stopping the run and has issues with stronger backs even more so. The Packers are a much better home team lead by Aaron Rodgers and they could get out to a nice lead which would mean a lot of running in the second half. Even though Jones has some carries poached by Jamaal Williams this looks like a spot where could top 20+ carries and the century mark for the first time this year.