PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-0

SEASON RESULTS:
53-48

Week 16 Recap:

After two weeks of some bad breaks and honestly not the best prop picks we’ve ever made, week 16 was good to us as we cruised to a perfect 6-0 mark with really little doubt for the most part with our wagers. We had a couple of quarterback TD toss overs at 1.5 with Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton and both had those wrapped up in the 3rd quarters of their respective games. We went with the league’s surest play which was Michael Thomas receptions over as it was almost a lock that the Saints would be looking to get him that record in a game with the Titans missing Adoree Jackson in the secondary. He grabbed his 9th pass at the start of the 4th quarter sealing our third victory. Speaking of early victories, we mentioned that it would be a great play to take Julio Jones for his catch total or his yardage, we opted for his yardage due to lesser juice. He had 51 yards on the Falcons first possession and skyrocketed past his total having another monster day at home against a deflated Jaguar defense. Our lone under of the weekend was Kenny Golladay, and this was the one bet that we had to sweat a bit as he got off to a fast start with a couple of big catches in the first quarter of their game against the Broncos. He slowed down however and finished with 66 yards just staying below his total of 68.5. Sunday night was our final prop bet as we went with Travis Kelce over 5.5 catches against a Bears team that has played good defense all season but was missing some key players and had struggled against opposing tight ends all season. Kelce grabbed five passes in the first half and caught two quick ones to start the second half putting the icing on the perfect prop bet day. (And perfect day overall as our NFL wagers cashed as well).

Week 17 Preview:

Another fast moving NFL regular season and a week 17 that features a lot of games that mean very little in terms of playoff positioning. That makes choosing games and prop bets extremely selective as teams may rest veterans to avoid injury, or to give some younger players an opportunity to show what they’ve got. We circled four wagers all involving receiving props, two by wide receivers and two by NFC East running backs to finish up the regular season. Two names we figured to be playing props with this season, two we definitely did not, which makes it that much more fun.

Our Picks:

Breshad Perriman – Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jameis Winston will put the wraps on his 2019 campaign with what could be an entertaining showdown against Matt Ryan and the Falcons in Tampa. As anyone following the NFL knows, Winston has been on a tear throwing the football, mixing in interceptions of course, but really slinging the ball all over the field. With his top two targets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin unavailable Breshad Perriman will once again assume the reigns as the number one receiver in the offense. When it comes to the TB offense that pretty much guarantees you’re going to get some volume of targets and yards. Perriman has played great since being thrust into the lineup and he should conclude his season with another solid performance.

Saquon Barkley – Over 27.5 Yards Receiving (-120)

The Giants prepare to play the role of spoilers against the Eagles and Saquon Barkley tried to duplicate his ridiculously strong effort from a week ago when he combined for 278 scrimmage yards. He’ll find things a little tougher against the Eagles stingy run defense in a must-win scenario. That’s exactly why we like the over total on his receiving yards rather than his rushing yardage as he should have more success through the air against the Eagles linebackers and defensive backs than straight ahead in the run game. The only real concern here is if the Giants want to rest Barkley and or get others involved in the gameplan. Assuming Barkley plays the entire game, he should be able to top this total.

Greg Ward, Jr. – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

Raise your hand if you had Greg Ward being one of the most important individual players of determining the playoffs just a few weeks ago? Yeah, us neither. Carson Wentz and Ward were clutch in their takedown of the Cowboys last week and if they’re going to beat the Giants that combination will need to come through again. With an already battered receiving corp, the Eagles were dealt another big blow when it was determined that Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz will not be able to go on Sunday taking away the favorite target for Wentz. That puts Greg Ward squarely back into the mix to receive a lot of targets in this one there are really only a few other possible options to get looks. Serving in what will basically be a number one receiver role, and having shown pretty instant chemistry with Wentz, Greg Ward, Jr. should have no issues getting above his pesky 3.5 catch total.

Ezekiel Elliott – 21.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

If you check our seasonal prop bets we haven’t done that great with Zeke, in fact we’re 0-3, going over when he’s laid some eggs twice, and picking under in a game when he went for over 100 yards. We might as well be labeled quitters if we don’t try to get a win out of him this season and this one really seems like the juiciest of all as we need 21.5 receiving yards. The Redskins were absolutely burned by Saquon Barkley receiving last week so we know they are suspect in covering backs out of the backfield. Over the last six weeks, although Elliott has often been overlooked with carries, he has consistently caught a few balls a game and generally is good for one or two pretty nice gains each week. Playing at home with that low of a total, this bet seems almost too good to be true…