PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3

SEASON RESULTS:
40-37

Week 12 Recap:

When you simply look at a record of 2-3 on a given week there isn’t a lot to be either excited or disappointed about as it seems like a typical, albeit slightly disappointing card. It’s not being a game in deficit that is most frustrating for us as we recap the weekend, it’s the fact that the game scripts and breakdowns went exactly as we suspected and yet we still ended up on the losing side of things. That’s the way it goes sometimes in the world of sports betting and we won’t let it discourage us from finding some good props again next weekend.

Here’s a quick recap of what went right, and what also went right, but ended up wrong in week twelve:

We loved the Christian McCaffrey reception total based on the matchup against the Saints and how the Panthers would need to get him the ball. At just 4.5 catches, McCaffrey crushed that getting double digits for the second week in a row so a quick and easy one there. Odell Beckham, Jr. was another pretty easy cover as he grabbed a 35 yard touchdown early in the game and grabbed a few other nice plays early in the third quarter to take him over a very low yardage total based on the opponent in Miami.

Our losses were really tough to stomach as we eluded to at the start of this article. We really liked Matt Ryan’s yardage total over of 304.5 as their game with the Bucs promised some passing and some points, which absolutely came to fruition. Ryan had 266 yards with over 12:00 minutes left in the fourth quarter playing from behind, so mentally we had checked a likely W on that over. Unfortunately Ryan would complete just one more pass as the Falcons put Matt Schaub in the game giving us a cruel loss. A similar loss with the Ryan Fitzpatrick over as he fell a measly 6 yards shy despite being in obvious throwing situations as well all game. Lastly, a 5 yard defeat with the Ezekiel Elliott under as he ended with 84 yards topping the 79,5 yardage total in a game that required a lot of running due to the weather.

Week 13 Preview:

A hefty card for week thirteen with eight total plays, four over player totals and four under player totals. We’ve got some variety with big name players, lesser talent, quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. With a full slate we know it’s a bit of a crapshoot but there weren’t any that we really wanted to eliminate this weekend so we’re playing them all and we’ll let the chips fall where they may. Best of luck!

Our Picks:

Baker Mayfield – Under 249.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The Cleveland Browns got a peak at what many felt their offense would be last week as they rolled up yards and points both running and throwing with their superstars. Encouraging for the Browns without question, however it’s important to remember that was against the Miami Dolphins in a home game. This Sunday is the boxing rematch of the Garrett/Rudolph helmet swing and while neither will be on the field, this game is going to be a slugfest. The Steelers know that if they’re going to win this game it’s going to rest on the shoulders of their defense and in a cold Sunday look for a lot running, short passes and hard hitting. All of that should end up to Mayfield staying under of this total.

Le’Veon Bell – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

There are a lot of folks believing this may be the game where the Cincinnati Bengals finally get into the win column as they host the Jets and are re-inserting Andy Dalton back as their starting quarterback. For that to happen the Bengals are going to need to get some points on the board which they should be able to do. On the other side of the ball the New York Jets have been rolling as Sam Darnold has been on fire the past few weeks regaining his own confidence and credibility. The Jets will tell you Le’Veon Bell has played great all season despite a lack of great statistics. The game against Cincinnati offers Bell a chance to put up some of those stats that fantasy owners have been craving all season. As expected, Bell has been one of the most prolific pass catching running backs in the league. The Bengals have one of the weakest corps of linebackers in the league which means Bell should be able to get open pretty easily in the passing game. He’s routinely grabbed four or more catches this season and should be set up well to do so again.

Mike Evans. – Over 86.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If you’ve ever heard the term “don’t chase the points” in fantasy football it holds true with Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin who is coming off of a monster game last week. As a general rule for Tampa this year, their two stud receivers have alternated big performances as its almost like Jameis Winston and the coaches want to make it a point to get the receiver who was quieter more involved the following week. A sunny day in Jacksonville should lend itself to an ideal day for passing in what should be a high scoring game for both teams. 86 yards is certainly going to require a big day for Evans, but we have a feeling he’ll have that big day this weekend. Look for him to eclipse the century mark against a defense that has been struggling since sending Jalen Ramsey to the Rams.

Philip Rivers – Under 274.5 Yards Passing (-115)

No one will argue that Philip Rivers is a fiery competitor or that he needs to have a nice game this weekend coming off of as bad of a two weak stretch as he’s ever had in his career. Call it a hunch as we believe he will have a bounce back game and play much better against his divisional rival the Denver Broncos. Because Rivers has been cranking out yardage all season his prop total this week is a fairly high 274.5 yards which is actually below his seasonal average. If you simply glance at that, you might lean toward taking the over expecting he will have an “average” or better than average game. We’re going the opposite direction for a couple of reasons, one of which is due in part to his recent struggles of turning the ball over. Rivers won’t be afraid to chuck the ball around, however it’s possible he may be just slightly more cautious in an effort to cut down on his turnovers. Additionally this is a game that is projected to be low-scoring which lends itself to unders off of that alone. Most notably for this game is the opponent in Denver and what they’ve been doing all season against opposing passers. The Broncos are allowing an average of only 207 passing yards per game playing in a division with a lot of heavy passing. In Rivers first contest with the Broncos at home he threw for only 211 yards as Chris Harris, Jr. slowed down Keenan Allen. With weather being a factor Sunday it’s reasonable to assume Melvin Gordon will get a lot of touches on the ground as will the Denver runners.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 124.5 Yards Total Scrimmage (-115)

We cruised to a McCaffrey total over last week and we’re back for more with a different prop this weekend. McCaffrey is averaging a ridiculous 150+ total scrimmage yards per game which makes his pretty standard total of 124.5 appealing right off the bat. If you need more encouragement to pull the trigger on this one, Ryan Kerrigan will out for the Redskins who have struggled all season to stop enemy running backs. The Panthers are a heavy favorite which means there could be a lot of opportunity for running in the second half of this ballgame if it plays to projected form. In fact, the only thing that even gives a mini-pause with this bet is the chance that Carolina could be up so heavily that the Panthers could rest McCaffrey late in the game. We’ll take our chances with that and look for McCaffrey to break some long plays and run past this total.

LeSean McCoy – Over 34.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

This prop bet was a late add after Chiefs running back Damien Williams was ruled out of their matchup against the Raiders. LeSean McCoy is slated to start and will be looking to help Kansas City move the ball on the ground in a game where they’ll likely be throwing a lot as well. McCoy will likely split duties with teammate Darrel Williams so there may not be a ton of volume in terms of carries but with a prop set as low as 34.5 yards it doesn’t require a ton of volume. The Raiders are not great defensively and are a middle of the road team against the run. “Shady” still has the ability to break some of the 10 and 20 yard variety of runs and at worst case should be able to get some solid chunks throughout the day. Kansas City is also a double-digit favorite and could be up big in the game which of course would lead to an increase in running attempts. It won’t be shocking to see Darrel Williams get more touches than McCoy, but again, with a yardage total this low for a quality running back on an offensive team against a weaker opponent this seems like a bet with good odds of hitting.

Carols Hyde – Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We’ve been big fans of Carlos Hyde this season and really like what the Texans did bringing him in and giving him a chance to show what he can do. Hyde started the season off near the top of the back of running backs, but over the past seven games has only rushed for over 60 yards one time. A game against the number one rated New England Patriots defense does bode well for his chances of cracking that yardage mark when the teams collide in a big Sunday Night Football game. While it’s true that the Pats’ will likely look to focus their attention on DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson, it’s still hard to see Hyde breaking off the long runs or being on the field enough to churn up big yards.

Tom Brady – Under 285.5 Yards Passing (-115)

If you want to play with fire then this is the bet for you as we’re taking an under involving a “due” Tom Brady and the Patriots. Brady and the Pats’ offense has been struggling in recent weeks and are looking to find a better rhythm as they make their push towards the playoffs. Their Sunday Night Football contest against the Texans is the best matchup they’ve had over the last couple of games so they should be able to put some better numbers up than they have been, but will Brady be able to go for more than 285 yards? The days of Brady automatically hitting 300 yards are in the past as this team is built on defense and good decision making and timely plays on offense. With Mohammed Sanu still sidelined and Brady rarely throwing the deep ball it will take a whole lot of screen passes and intermediate tosses to eclipse that number. As stated, this one isn’t for the faint of heart so no hard feelings if you want to pass this bet up.