PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-5

SEASON RESULTS:
38-34

Week 11 Recap:

Tough finish to week 11 giving up three units of profit with a 2-5 finish as we swung and missed with a couple of the NFL’s biggest stars. We got burned by the hook in a couple of wagers as the sportsbooks had their numbers pretty well dialed in with our picks for the most part.

Our favorite play of the week turned out to be a loser (by the hook) as despite the game script going exactly as we anticipated, the prop was unable to hit. We had Duke Johnson over 2.5 catches assuming the Texans would be in pass mode, which they were, meaning Johnson would play a lot more snaps than normal. While he had 2 catches in the 3rd quarter, he never was able to corral the third grab which was extremely disappointing, particularly as we had to pay a little extra juice for that over.

The bright spot for us in the early games was taking running back Devin Singletary’s rushing yardage over against a porous Dolphins defense as that total sat at a mere 61.5 yards. It was nice when on the first play of the game he ripped off a 23 yard gain setting the stage for a cover pretty early in the game.

The second hook that hurt us was taking Chris Godwin for a second week in a row as we were tempted by what was an enticing low catch total of just 4.5. Godwin and the Bucs never really got the offense going and as was the case with Duke Johnson, although he had three catches at halftime, he was unable to get the simple two grabs we needed in the second half to put it over.

In the late game we watched Julian Edelman become a key part in New England’s important victory as we expected, unfortunately for us he did his damage throwing and running the ball, rather than with receptions as he finished with only five catches, needing seven to get us the cover.

We rebounded with the under for Mitchell Trubisky’s yardage total in the Sunday night game as he faced a tough Rams defense and was unable to climb over the yards needed getting us the win. It actually was going to come down to the wire as Trubisky needed just 22 yards and was going to get the ball back on one last drive with a chance to go over, however a surprising injury took him out of the game sealing a much needed win for us.

Finally, in a surprising result, Patrick Mahomes fell drastically shy of his yardage total that we were determined to ride until the wheels fell off, which they did here. No regrets ever on our end taking a stud like Mahomes in a game like that, just a loss we have to live with and move on from.

Week 12 Preview:

We’ve circled some of the league’s most recognizable talent as our prop plays for week twelve with five total plays. We’re flip flopping a player from last week from an over to an under, and riding with overs for all of the rest of the bets. There are two plays that will likely win or lose together in the Browns and Dolphins game which gives us exactly two reasons to tune into that affair. We had our eyes on Jamison Crowder, Kenny Golladay and Davante Adams in addition to our plays, but opted to hold tight with the five plays we liked the most that provided the biggest upside.

Our Picks:

Matt Ryan – Over 304.5 Yards Passing (-115)

If you’re looking for some value this prop bet seems to offer a ton of it for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. First let’s take a look back at his last three meetings against the Buccaneers which have averaged s ridiculous over 350 passing yards, so clearly Ryan is comfortable throwing it on this team. Next, we need to look at that Bucs defense closely to recognize you flat out can’t run on this unit as they’ve been at the top of the league all season. Add in the fact the Falcons will be without their starting running backs and you have to imagine Ryan will be throwing a lot. Finally, this game has the highest O/U point total projected this weekend so Vegas clearly believes a lot of points will be scored, which is nothing new involving a TB team that leads the league in over covers on the season. When you tally all of that up it sure seems like a great spot for Matt Ryan to have a big day and eclipse the 300 yard mark (304.5 to be exact).

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Over 220.5 Yards Passing (-115)

At initial glance taking any Dolphins over seems like a pretty risky proposition and we fully recognize this. However, there is a time and place for everything and this week seems like an opportune time to take a calculated chance on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins offense. If you caught our plays of the week, we grabbed the over on this game and are expecting a fair amount of offense. Stating the obvious, the Browns are missing basically they’re entire defensive line, including it’s best defensive player in Myles Garrett. Throw in Morgan Burnett’s season-ending injury in the secondary and Fitzpatrick should have some time to throw and some room down the field. Of course you’ll also want to factor in the Dolphins defense and the likelihood that they are going to give up some points to a motivated Browns offense and Fitzpatrick should find himself in a lot of passing situations in the second half.

Odell Beckham, Jr. – Over 67.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If you’re willing to take the chance on Fitzpatrick, you might as well go ahead and double down with an Odell Beckham, Jr. over as well. It’s not just the Cleveland record that has been a disappointment this year, but the production of prized free agent Beckham has also not met what most believed it would. Enter a matchup with the Miami Dolphins and things should suddenly start to look a little better for Baker Mayfield and Beckham. The Dolphins secondary can flat out not match up with OBJ (or anyone really) and with a home game and decent weather we’re expecting a big game. John Brown torched the Dolphins for 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns a week ago and Beckham should enjoy some similar success this Sunday.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

There hasn’t been more of a sure thing in NFL fantasyland than Christian McCaffrey this season as he seems to produce no matter what the situation or competition. He’ll have an uphill battle going into rival New Orleans to face what is a top five rush defense of the Saints in a game where the Panthers are heavy underdogs. We’re not going to doubt McCaffrey no matter what his total is although his rushing prop of 74.5 seems shaky in this game. What we do however like is his reception total over as it sits at 4.5. His reception numbers have been a bit of a roller coaster this season and he is coming off a monster game with 11 catches so a correction down could be in order. However based on the fact that the Saints are so stout against the run, it’s likely that the Panthers will try to involve McCaffrey more in the passing game and in space. Coming off of a four interception game, his quarterback Kyle Allen will likely have a simpler game plan this Sunday as well which should lead to some screens and check downs. If New Orleans is in fact able to build an early or large lead the game script will also lend itself to a lot of throwing for the Panthers. In a virtual must-win, expect McCaffrey to see the ball all over the field.

Ezekiel Elliott – Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Last week we banked on Ezekiel Elliott crushing it in a favorable matchup against the Lions and he let us down with a very pedestrian performance as Dak Prescott carried the load throwing the ball all over the yard. We’re switching sides this weekend which is usually a recipe for disaster, but a chance we’re willing to take as the metrics just make sense and we have to stick to the formula. The last two weeks Elliott has averaged a mere 2.5 yards rushing and hasn’t cracked the 50 yard threshold. A matchup against New England is not the most ideal spot for him to get back on track. There is a big question mark in this game, and that is what the focal point of Bill Belichek’s game plan will be in terms of who he wants to take out of the game? With the explosive play of Prescott, will Belichek be willing to let Zeke take 4 yard chunks throughout the game? As a general rule, the Pats like to start with thwarting the running game so it’s hard to believe they’ll ignore Elliott even if he has been stymied the last couple of weeks. Normally 80 yards is a marker that you’d want to go over with, but in this matchup we’ll flip the script and go under.