PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-1

SEASON RESULTS:
36-29

Week 10 Recap:

Never a bad thing to finish 4-1 as we were on the correct side of a couple of pretty close bets that swung in our favor. Our fifth bet fell short due more to game script than anything else which we’ll cover in a minute.

We paid a little extra juice to get Chris Godwin’s catch total at 5.5 and he squeaked by ending with 6 catches which was a really important win to get the day started. Our closest bet that also just held up was the under for Tyler Boyd at 64.5 yards. Boyd finished with 62 yards as the Bengals were playing catch up the entire game in a rout at the hands of the Ravens. A little easier over with Allen Robinson as he had a big second quarter and went over his yardage total at the start of the third quarter which is always a great feeling knowing you’ve got one in the bag. The easiest cover of the day was with the yardage total of Patrick Mahomes who looked like good ol’ Mahomes chucking the ball around after a few week absence. We mentioned that if that total was ever under 300 yards we’ll take it every single time regardless of matchup and he didn’t disappoint as he was pushing 400 yards in the third quarter. Our only loss came with Julio Jones as we had an enticing number with 6 catches against his division rival New Orleans Saints. Somehow the Falcons dominated in the trenches and were winning the entire game. As a result, the targets and opportunities simply weren’t there for Jones to eclipse those 6 receptions. As most people figured, we thought the Saints might have a nice lead in this game forcing a lot of second half throws and some garbage receptions for Julio. Sometimes the game script doesn’t go accordingly, it’s simply a part of gambling.

Week 11 Preview:

There are some players this week that are set up to have some really nice games so searching for the props that outline these without paying outrageous juice took some serious research. What we found as we narrowed things down are that we’re not afraid to go back to guys that have gotten it done for us in the past, including two that got us to the pay window just a week ago. We’ve got a hefty slate of 7 plays locked in and ready to go all of which will be overs with the exception of one quarterback that basically should never go over.

Our Picks:

Duke Johnson – Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)

It’s completely understandable if Duke Johnson isn’t on your radar entering his week eleven contest against the Ravens, however it’s time to take a close look at him. For just slightly elevated juice of -120 you can lock in his receptions over total which is set at just 2.5 catches. Johnson has really come on over the last month and hasn’t had less than 4 receptions in his last 4 games. Add in the fact that there could be a lot of throwing in this game and he could see even more snaps than he’s been seeing. The Ravens have been pretty tough against the run so there should be ample opportunity on third downs for Johnson to grab a few passes. We say it a lot, you can’t call anything a lock in sports betting, but this is about as close as you’ll get with a bet that should be a cover win.

Julian Edelman – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

After an uncharacteristically slow start to the season, Julian Edelman has come on lately and looks like the premier slot receiver we’ve been accustomed to watching over his career. He has a great matchup against the Eagles this week and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up having double digit receptions when it’s all said and done. The Patriots are favored and should win against a banged up Eagles roster, yet playing in Philadelphia this should be a competitive contest. In games that are close, we know Tom Brady looks for the reliable Edelman and that alone should get him some targets. When you peel it back a little more, you’ll recognize the Eagles are pretty stout against the run, meaning Bill Belichek and Josh McDaniels will want to use the short passing game to keep the chains moving. The Eagles have struggled in their secondary and are even more vulnerable in the middle of the field with their linebacking corp. Brady will undoubtedly spread things around so guys like Mohammed Sanu and James White will see their share of catches but in this match against the Eagles, Edelman should absolutely grab more than six passes to put him over.

Chris Godwin – Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)

A week ago we paid a little extra juice to get Chris Godwin with a reception total of over 5.5 and he came through with a win for us. If it ain’t broke we’re not about to try and fix it as we’re again willing to put -130 on the line for an absolutely minimal number of over 4.5 catches for Godwin. Las Vegas is looking at this game as a high scoring affair and with Jameis Winston likely throwing the ball a lot, this prop seems like taking candy from a baby. Factor in Marshon Lattimore not being available for the Saints and their comment about rolling coverage to Mike Evans and Godwin should have some very good opportunities for grabbing some catches. He’s been a little quieter after a monsterous three game stretch, but he’s only had one game this entire season with less than 5 catches. It’s well worth the -130 with a proposition bet so heavily weighted in your favor to roll the dice with this pick.

Devin Singletary – Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll took a lot of heat for the loss against the Browns, and specifically for only giving Devin Singletary eight touches against what was a somewhat soft run defense. They are committed to getting Singletary a lot more work against the Dolphins which is good news for SIngletary as the Dolphins have not stopped anyone rushing the football this year. Frank Gore will certainly get a handful of attempts returning to Miami, but it shouldn’t be enough to keep Singletary from rushing at least 15 times, and he might get 20+ in this game. Singletary is averaging over six yards per carry so to hit this over he basically just needs to get 10 carries and have an average day. Don’t be shocked if the young rookie leaves Miami with his first 100 yard rushing game and a solid cover on this over bet.

Ezekiel Elliott – Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

If you had to listen to Booger McFarland break down Ezekiel Elliott you heard that Zeke is the best running back in the NFL. All due respect to Booger but that is a ridiculous comment as he’s probably not in the top three, at least in our humble opinion, and taking it a step further he just hasn’t looked very dominant this season. It could be the holdout or something else, but Elliott looks a little heavy and slow compared to what we were used to seeing. So why are we looking to bet his over of 91.5 rushing yards this week against the LIons? Well the answer is pretty simple, it’s that he’s playing the Lions. When you look at Zeke’s game production from this season, he has struggled against quality opponents like the Saints, Packers and Vikings, however he has absolutely crushed weaker competition rushing for over 100 yards against the Redskins, Dolphins, Jets and Giants. The Cowboys will be playing a Detroit team that is 30th in the league in total defense and 29th against the run which makes Elliott a really appealing play on Sunday. Add in the fact that the Lions will be without Matthew Stafford and Dallas should be able to control this game, meaning there is a potential for a heavy workload for Zeke. Trends show us he should hit the 100 yard plateau so for us, the over it is.

Mitchell Trubisky – Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

In the second half of their game against the Lions last week Mitchell Trubisky finally showed some signs of life tossing three touchdowns and putting away Detroit at home. He’ll have a much tougher task in the Sunday Night Football game as the Bears travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. This game could end up being a bit of a slugfest with the possibility of a lot of punting which doesn’t lend itself to a lot of passing yardage. Trubisky has only gone over the 225 yard mark on three occasions this season, and it’ll be tough for him to do that in this game as he’ll be minus his top two tight ends. With Jalen Ramsey locking in on his favorite target of Jalen Ramsey, and one of the top cover linebackers in Corey Littleton keeping tabs on Tarik Cohen out of the backfield it could be a long game for Trubisky. It’s always possible that he could hit a bomb to a guy like Taylor Gabriel, or that the Bears are down heavily and throwing a bunch in the second half so this one could get derailed, but on paper you definitely want to take this under.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 314.5 Passing Yards (-115)

We were shocked at Mahomes prop yardage last year being under 300 yards and jumped all over it to cash in. It’s been slightly adjusted to 314.5 as the Chiefs will be playing in prime-time against the rival Chargers in Mexico City on Monday Night Football. Taking out the game where Mahomes was injured against the Broncos, he has only gone for less than 315 yards one time this season and against a struggling LA defense it wouldn’t seem like this would be the second time. He again has all of his receiving weapons healthy and with the highest O/U point total of the week there should be plenty of throwing and scoring. At some point the sportsbooks are going to need to go away from traditional logic and start moving Mahomes totals to the 350 range if they want to get action on both sides. Until that happens, we’re riding this train and hoping for a back-to-back prop cover on Monday with Mahomes.