PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3

SEASON RESULTS:
3-3

Week 1 Recap:

If you caught our week one Prop Corner article, hopefully you bet all of our posted leans and not just our official plays. Our leans went a strong 6-1 making us very upset for not playing them officially. Fortunately, we at least treaded some water overall with what we posted going 3-3 and chopping up some vig. The season started out fortunately for us, as we won the Jamhyr Gibbs over on his rushing yards on his last carry of the night. Having only played 27% of the Lions offensive snaps, we would say we were a bit lucky, but it obviously shows the right side of that wager, and the upside Gibbs offers as a player. Sunday started out a bit rough as we lost our Dallas Goedert prop as he was completely shut out in the rain in New England. We also fell short on our plus money wager of Derek Carr tossing over 1.5 touchdowns. He nearly had a second in the fourth quarter but could not connect with Chris Olave in a tight window. On the unfortunate side, J.K. Dobbins was lost early in the third quarter, which squashed any chance, and a likely chance of him getting over his yardage total. We were spot on with our thoughts regarding Keenan Allen as he covered his reception total at the start of the third quarter, and Dalton Kincaid also topped his in the first half of their game against the Jets.

Week 2 Preview:

Our selections are expanding to seven total bets in week number two, and for just the second time in our history we’re backing three players from the same team. We’ve also got our first official under of the year, on a player that’s a trendy name in fantasy football circles this weekend. We can’t find any quarterback props we love as the players we want to fade simply have totals too low to risk. There are some familiar names on our list, and some surprises you may not be expecting. Don’t forget to check out our leans at the bottom as well. These are plays we feel good about you may want to at least explore if you aren’t a fan of our official wagers.

Our Picks:

Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The interior of the Philadelphia Eagles defense with the addition of Jalen Carter has made them instantly one of the better run defenses in the league. Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t find a lot of room in their game with the Eagles, and after an early deficit, Mac Jones and the passing game had to take over. Stevenson should be the featured man in the offense when the Patriots host the Dolphins in an important early season AFC East matchup. The Dolphins run defense was spotty, at best, allowing Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley some room to run in their opener. The Patriots know they don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Dolphins in a shoot-out, so look for them to lean on the running game early and often. As long as the Pats can keep this game within striking distance, Stevenson should find his way to a nice day on the ground, making this total very manageable to beat.

Nick Chubb – Over 77.5 Yards Rushing (-120)

If there is a such thing as old reliable in the NFL, it might just be Nick Chubb to average 5+ yards per carry, and rush for 100 yards each week, or so it feels like anyhow. We should see a very physical game when the Browns face the rival Steelers on Monday Night Football, which is perfect for a player like Chubb. The Browns running back has gone over this mark in 4 of his last 6 games versus the Steelers, and with Pittsburgh losing Cameron Heyward, he should have a nice performance once again. The Browns offensive line against the Steelers line, minus Heyward is a clear advantage to Cleveland, and rookie right tackle Dawand Jones may actually be an upgrade from the injured Jack Conklin. Yards through the air figure to be tough to come by for both of these teams as this has the feel of a throwback grind out out game from years ago. When you see a Chubb rushing total that starts with the number “7”, it feels like it’s basically a have to bet prop.

Dalton Kincaid – Over 30.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The first of our three Buffalo Bills we’re targeting is the one we played successfully in their opening week against the Jets, tight end Dalton Kincaid. The rookie was on the field as much as any of the starting weapons, and despite a tough matchup against the Jets, was able to grab four passes. There should be more room to roam against the Raiders defense, and Kincaid should have at least three to four plays designed specifically for him. With quarterback Josh Allen turning the ball over pushing it down the field last week, you would imagine he and the offense will be a little more patient, taking what the defense gives it underneath. For that reason alone Kincaid should be a solid option in this game. Additionally, Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby will be lined up against the Bills weakest link on the offensive line in right tackle Spencer Brown. Look for the Bills other tight end, Dawson Knox, to be lined up on that side and potentially asked to stay in to help block as the more experienced blocker. That means Kincaid will be released in more passing routes, giving him more opportunities than his peer at the position.

Joshua Kelley – Under 52.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

When he’s had his opportunities, Chargers running back Joshua Kelley has done a solid job filling in for Austin Ekeler. He’ll get the start this weekend against the Titans in a matchup that feels eerily similar to what Jamaal Williams was in a week ago against Tennessee. The Titans defense has proved vulnerable against the pass, but no one can question the run defense and the interior of their line with Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry. They completely stymied the Saints running attack last week, and there’s little reason to believe they won’t be able to do that again against Kelley and the Chargers. Head coach Brandon Staley is notorious for abandoning the running game if it isn’t working early, so it’s not impossible to think the Chargers could go straight to the air if they’re finding more success that way. Kelley will be looking to make the most of his opportunity, it’s just not an ideal matchup for him this week.

James Cook – Over 47.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

There were a handful of Bills who looked sharp in their opening week loss to the Jets, and running back James Cook was one of them. The Jets defense was flying all over the field, yet Cook seemed to have a gear that was just a bit higher than those attempting to tackle him. When he had even a sliver of space, he was able to make some nice moves and be mildly productive. The Raiders were just average in week one against the run, but when you watch the defense, the safeties in particular were pretty aggressive up towards the box. With Stefon Diggs on the outside, it’s fair to assume they’ll be a little more cautious over the top, and the Bills interior offensive line should be able to create some space for Cook. Even with Damien Harris and Latavius Murray getting a few touches, Cook is clearly the alpha in the backfield, and we’re expecting at least a dozen carries for him this week, and potentially more depending on the game script. If he gets the dozen totes, a 4 yard average is all he’d need to eclipse this number, and averaging over 5 for his career, this seems likely against a suspect defense.

Gabriel Davis – Over 46.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Bills head coach Sean McDermott was searching for answers about the Bills offense after week one, and one he kept coming to was needing to involve Gabe Davis more in the passing game. Davis saw only three targets in the opener despite playing the highest snap count of all of the skill position players. If there is one player that the team will likely be looking to push the ball to on Sunday it is Davis. Throughout his career, Davis has been skilled at making aggressive corners make mistakes and getting behind them. He’s likely to see a lot of Marcus Peters in this matchup, who is one of the most attacking cornerbacks in the entire league. Davis has shown some inconsistencies, however there are certain matchups that are very favorable for him. We’re going to back him here in a game where we have him projected to hit around 65 yards receiving, giving us a comfortable cushion on his current total.

Robert Woods – Over 33.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

You probably didn’t catch a lot of the Texans week one contest, and you may be surprised Robert Woods is still chugging along in the league. If you did see the game, you noticed the veteran was open quite a bit, and rookie C.J. Stroud was able to get the ball to him. We’re not expecting Woods to be an 8-100-1 type of guy at this stage in his career off of a serious knee injury, but he remains a craft and dependable route runner. The Colts cornerbacks are very unproven, and not necessarily all of that talented either, although that remains to be seen. Woods should be able to use his experience to find openings in a defense that will be looking to control the run, and get pressure on the quarterback. As long as his total stays in the low 30’s for his yardage, he’s worth a look.

Week 1 Leans:

Kenny Pickett – Under 199.5 Yards Passing
Bijan Robinson – Over 21.5 Yards Receiving
Keenan Allen – Over 70.5 Yards Receiving
Anthony Richardson – Over 42.5 Yards Rushing
Breece Hall – Over 35.5 Yards Rushing
Daniel Jones – Over 34.5 Yards Rushing

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