PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-5

SEASON RESULTS:
58-53

Week 14 Recap:

What is and what will never be is the theme from week 14 with our player prop bets. Before we start our whining on a 5-5 weekend, it is important that we admit that we clearly missed on some bets. Jamison Crowder was a non-factor as were basically all of his teammates as their offense struggled mightily. We were apparently a week early in going with Travis Kelce as he had a season low performance, before his career high performance on Thursday Night Football. The remainder of losses were extremely painful based on not only the closeness, but also due to injuries. Kareem Hunt had 15 yards receiving in the 1st quarter, needing only 3 yards to go over his total. He was dinged up on a run, and even though he could have continued playing, the coaching staff opted to hold him out for the rest of the game. Speaking of the Browns, Austin Hooper had 30 receiving yards early in the 2nd quarter, and seemed to be well en route to going over the 32.5 total, but fizzled out the rest of the day and never made it. We were high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and he did punch in two touchdowns, however he only notched 9 carries and did not get to his rushing total. Another frustrating miss was fading Trevor Lawrence as some garbage time drives at the end of the game allowed him to just squeak by his total. We had some nice wins with the bigger name players as Jonathan Taylor, Mike Evans, Saquon Barkley and both New Orleans Saints players cashed their bets. Just as in real life, sports betting can be a game of inches, and that separated us here from a winning and losing Sunday.

Week 15 Preview:

A total of 8 player prop bets featuring not a single passing proposition as we’re looking at the running backs and receivers this weekend. For the second straight week we’re looking at Alvin Kamara, and a few other All-Pro players to carry the weight. Our one under that we have is with a player we’ve hit some overs with this season, as we’re going the opposite direction based on circumstance. We’ve got one guy flying under the radar, who seemingly only has a timeshare as his liabilities in covering on Sunday. We’ve also dusted off a former Pro Bowl receiver who is primed to have a nice day in a favorable matchup. As always, it’s a diverse slate, which is just the way we like it.

Our Picks:

Alvin Kamara- Over 30.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The New Orleans Saints wasted little time re-installing Alvin Kamara into the gameplan against the New York Jets last weekend. Kamara looked fresh and effective, although some of that was probably due to the opponent that he was playing. Kamara and the Saints will have a tougher test against the Buccaneers and their always stingy run defense in a game where they may get outgunned. That’s not to say that Kamara can’t still be the team’s number one option, it’s just more likely that it will come in the passing game. If Tampa is able to stop the run, they’ll force Taysom Hill to throw, and Kamara will be his safety valve. Because he is such a great receiving weapon, this could definitely be a game where Kamara ends up with more receiving yards than rushing yards.

Josh Allen – Under 31.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Josh Allen won over a lot of casual fans with his gutsy performance in a comeback effort that fell just short against the Buccaneers. Allen injured his foot early in the 4th quarter, but remained in the game and ran as hard as any running back in the league, putting his team on his back. It’s no secret that Allen can be an effective runner, but you have to imagine that he won’t be as determined to tuck and run in a game with the Panthers. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will look to protect Allen in this game without having the usual designed quarterback runs, and probably working the quick passing game. The Panthers boast a fast and athletic defense that would actually provide a big challenge against Allen if he did decide to run the football. Fortunately, as 13.5 point favorites, the Bills should be comfortable in this game, meaning it’ll be a nice opportunity to get their running backs some work. Even though Allen is more than capable of hitting 32 rushing yards, this should be a game where he doesn’t take a lot of chances with that injured foot on the ground.

Davante Adams – Over 88.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

One of the more interesting stats across the league this year is that Davante Adams is the only wide receiver to have a grade of over 90 against both zone and man coverage. In simple terms, the man is basically not able to be guarded. If the Baltimore Ravens had a healthy secondary, things might be a little tougher for Adams and Aaron Rodgers in a tough road game. However, the Ravens secondary will be without 3 of their top 4 cornerbacks, two of which have been Pro Bowl players. The Ravens have managed to stay fairly stout against the run, so Aaron Rodgers will have to throw in order for the Packers to continue their quest for the top seed in the NFC. Playing against what are basically practice squad cornerbacks, Davante Adams should have no trouble making plays in this game. We have him pegged for a 100 yard performance, so we’re definitely going all in on one of the top two receivers in the league.

Myles Gaskin – Over 52.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Miami Dolphins boast one of the least productive running games in the entire league heading into their game with the New York Jets. They got some good news however earlier in the week as starting running back Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID-19 reserved list. Meanwhile new addition Phillip Lindsay was not, meaning Gaskin should be in line for a pretty hefty workload on Sunday. Throw in the fact that wideout Jaylen Waddle will miss the contest, and we could see a lot of Gaskin in the passing game as well. On the other side of the ball, the New York Jets have completely fizzled with their run defense, and have been the third worst team against the run over the past 6 weeks. Although Gaskin has only topped this number three times so far this season, one of those was his best performance of the year with 89 yards against the Jets the first time they faced off. The stars are aligned for Gaskin to have another solid game that should get him over the mark.

George Kittle – Over 5.5 Receptions (115)

Injuries and a quiet start to the 2021 season may have made some people forget about just what an amazing talent the 49ers George Kittle is. Watching the last two weeks has reminded everyone just what he’s capable of, and why he’s such a critical piece for his offense. The Niners have a home matchup on deck with the Atlanta Falcons, and enter the game as heavy favorites. The breakdown here is really pretty simple: George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are the two best players on the field, and each should find room against the Falcons defense. With running back Eli Mitchell slated to miss the game, the 49ers will utilize Kittle as an extension of the running game. Since declaring himself completely healthy, he’s averaged 11 receptions, so getting to six catches should be do-able in this contest.

Chase Claypool – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

No one took more heat than Chase Claypool did at the end of their game due to his celebration with the clocking winding down on the game’s final drive. The young wide receiver has made a habit of making some questionable decisions, but no one can deny the talent he possesses. A physical game with the Tennessee Titans awaits the Pittsburgh Steelers, in what is an absolute must win for Pittsburgh if they want to entertain any playoff chances. The Titans have been much improved from a season ago on defense, however they have still be vulnerable against the pass, and specifically the deep pass. Claypool has emerged as the deep threat in the Steelers offense, and with Tennessee focused on taking away Najee Harris, it’s going to be up to Claypool to make some plays. Having gone over 80 yards receiving in 3 of the last 4 games, we like his chances to go over against Tennessee.

A.J. Green – Over 52.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

It’s officially A.J. Green SZN for the Arizona Cardinals as DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss some time with injury. What a luxury the Cardinals have in being able to have depth at the position overall, and former perennial Pro Bowler A.J. Green to step up in the absence of Hopkins. The Cardinals take to the road, where they’ve actually played a lot better, when they face the Detroit Lions this weekend. The Lions have battled hard all season on defense, but they’re overmatched in this game as they’ll have their hands full containing Kyler Murray. It’s a little scary taking a Cardinal wide receiver because they have so many options, and could be up big in this game. We’re not letting that keep us off of Green who really seems to have built some nice rapport with Murray the last couple of games. We’re counting him as WR1 against the Lions, and with just 52.5 yards as his number, we’ll roll the dice with the veteran.

D’onta Foreman – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you’re looking for plays down the stretch, it’s a safe bet to fade the Pittsburgh Steelers run defense. The once proud unit is now deficient on the offensive line, and has not gotten great play from their linebackers. The last month has seen the team repeatedly gashed, resulting in them allowing a league worse 5 yards per carry. Playing D’onta Foreman would be a complete no-brainer, with one big exception. He’s going to share the backfield with Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols throughout the ballgame. With that being said, he should be the leading back based on recent history. With the Titans still minus A.J. Brown in the passing game, look for a run-heavy scheme in what will be a bit of a slugfest type of matchup.

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