PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3

SEASON RESULTS:
48-46

Week 12 Recap:

As was the case with our weekly plays, our prop bets finished at an even 3-3 costing us a little juice on the weekend. Sunday was solid as we went 3-1, with our only miss being a yard and a half on Leonard Fournette’s over total on his receiving yards. We rode the Jalen Hurts over train on his rushing with relative ease, and also watched our Tevin Coleman wager cash early on. It took the entire game, but our Myles Gaskin under landed right where we had anticipated. We bookended our losses on Thanksgiving with a huge miss on Ezekiel Elliott, and fell short with Lamar Jackson in his less than stellar performance against the Cleveland Browns.

Week 13 Preview:

You’ll notice a couple of common themes with our week number 13 player prop bets. First, we’re taking full advantage of quality players that are in line to get more activity with key injuries on their respective teams. Next, it’s nothing but love as we’re not fading anyone in this week’s edition. We’ve got 7 bets keyed in that are all in anticipation of some great individual performances. We’ve got a pair of plays in the Lions and Vikings contest, a couple of the league’s top wideouts, and finish up with a big name on Monday Night Football. In heading for these overs we also had to factor in potential weather. You’ll notice that all of the games are taking place in either indoor stadiums, or warm weather venues. Lucky 13 should be a good week, let’s hit some winners.

Our Picks:

Justin Jefferson – Over 82.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

If the Minnesota Vikings hope to keep their playoffs chances alive, they’ll need to take care of business against the winless Detroit Lions in Motown. The player who might have the most impact in making that a reality is star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. You probably don’t need a lot of persuasion in how Jefferson is too talented to be contained by the Lions defense, so let’s look at what else will put him over the top. The loss of Dalvin Cook will no doubt at least somewhat move the gameplan from run-heavy to more balanced towards the pass. We know that quarterback Kirk Cousins feasts against inferior opponents, and in a game that will be off the radar, he should have a big day. A week ago Adam Thielen got some of the key targets, so a move back toward Jefferson should be in line Sunday. Unless the Vikings run away with this game early and completely abandon the pass, Jefferson should be headed towards a 100 yard day in a win for Minnesota.

Jamaal Williams – Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Wagering on anything regarding the Detroit Lions being successful can seem a bit like an oxymoron. If you’ve followed betting this season you know that despite their winless record, the Lions have actually covered the spread at one of the highest rates in the league. The moral of the story is that even bad teams can be counted on to make you money in sports betting. This week we’re taking a close look at running back Jamaal Williams, who is in line to get his first start of the season with the absence of D’Andre Swift. If you’re going to be making your first start, doing so against the Vikings is not the worst thing in the world. The team is allowing over 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and they’ll be without top linebacker Eric Kendricks, and extremely thin on the defensive line. Add in the fact that the strength of the Lions is their offensive line and things should look pretty good for Williams in this game.

Tyrod Taylor – Over 17.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

All good streaks must come to an end at some point, which means Tyrod Taylor won’t always exceed his rushing total. Our philosophy is to keep riding a streak until it actually does come to a stop, rather than trying to guess when it’ll happen. Taylor has gone over his total in each game since he re-entered the lineup after his early season injury. His total is actually adjusted a little lower in this game against the Colts, mostly because of the Colts athletic front and versatile linebackers. In actuality, the Colts have been good, but haven’t been necessarily great at stopping the run. As usual, the Texans could be behind and forced to throw the football. That means a lot of dropbacks, which could also mean a lot of opportunities to scramble out of the pocket. With his athleticism, hitting over 17.5 yards is always going to be in play, and could be the result of just one or two nice jaunts.

Cooper Kupp – Over 95.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

What has caused the Rams offense to fizzle over the past few weeks of the season? Could it be the loss of Robert Woods as the heartbeat of that grouping? Have defenses caught back up to head coach Sean McVay’s plan again? Or is it simply just a slump from Matthew Stafford and his weapons? Whatever it is, a game with the Jacksonville Jaguars is exactly what this team should need to make things right and to get the team back on track. We know the Jaguars were able to throttle the Bills at home a month ago, so it’s not a layup that the Rams will be successful, but this should shape up nicely for their visit from the west coast. During the regression for the Rams offense, the one constant has been the continued great play of league leading receiver Cooper Kupp. The yardage in the last six games for Cupp reads 96, 122, 95, 115, 156 and 130, respectively. That included a few games against some pretty tough receiving defenses as well, something the Jaguars are not. Much like the Justin Jefferson prop listed above, it would seem the only way that Kupp wouldn’t reach 100 yards would be a routing by the Rams.

Antonio Gibson – Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (115)

Depending on what your expectations were, you might say the season has been a little disappointing for Washington running back Antonio Gibson. He’s actually been a little up and down, but the team hasn’t lost faith in him, giving him a healthy workload each week. The biggest reason his statistics haven’t been higher is really because backup J.D. McKissic has been really productive and on the field more often than just obvious passing downs. McKissic suffered a concussion after a great game in primetime a week ago so Gibson should have a pretty firm hold on the backfield against the Las Vegas Raiders. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the second year back get 75-80% of the snaps on offense in a game that you’d expect to be close. The Raiders haven’t been great stopping the run, so even if Gibson just has an average day, he’d likely only need about 18 carries to get over that mark. We’re expecting him to get 20+ carries and it seems like his floor for rushing should be 80 yards on Sunday.

Elijah Mitchell – Over 87.5 Rushing (-115)

A couple of weeks ago we double-dipped with our Daily Fantasy Football Star of the Week and an over prop, when we rode with rookie Jaylen Waddle to success with each. We’re taking that same approach here with 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell who we slated as our Star of the Week for fantasy purposes earlier in the week. The rookie does have one of the higher rushing totals at 87.5, which should be a big hint that there are some big expectations for him against the Seahawks. It’s no secret the 49ers love nothing more than to run the football as much as possible, and Mitchell will be the undisputed man in this game. Deebo Samuel will not play in this game, so the approach will likely be a little more traditional for San Francisco, after mixing in a lot of Samuel’s talents as a runner the last few weeks. Seattle has been a little better at slowing down the run of late, but this 49er running attack is not your average team lining up and running the football. With the exception of the game he was injured in against the Cardinals in week nine, Mitchell has gone for 107, 137, 91 and 133 in his last four games. This is a 100 yard rushing day for Mitchell in a game that should be a bit of a grinder.

Josh Allen – Over 34.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Week thirteen will finish up on Monday with one of the most important games on the slate when the Bills host the Patriots with first place in the AFC East on the line. In what should shape up as an exciting and physical football game, things could get complicated with some typical December weather in Orchard Park, NY. Winds are expected up to 50-55 mph which could wreak havoc on the passing games for each team. The good news for the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen, is he has the ability to do damage with his legs if the conditions are rough for throwing the football. Of course, Allen is no stranger to running the football even in ideal conditions when the opportunity presents itself. Against the very disciplined New England secondary, Allen might very well need to tuck and run if his receivers are unable to find room in the passing game. You can also count on at least a couple of scripted runs as well from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. In two home games against the Patriots last couple of seasons Allen ran for 43 and 35 yards, averaging nearly 8 yards per carry. With the game being both important, and in a stand-alone national slot, Allen will no doubt be husting at his hardest, which will include some hard running and hopefully at least 35 yards for the BetCrushers.

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