PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
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SEASON RESULTS:
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Week 1 Preview:

Over the past few years prop betting has exploded, with sportsbooks offering more options than ever to wager on during NFL games. If we can offer one suggestion for the opening weekend of the season, it’s take it slow and pick your spots. Much of player prop betting is based on matchups, utilization and game script. In week one, there simply isn’t enough tangible sample size in many cases to formulate concrete projections. Basically, you’re having to work with your true “projections” and not a lot of analytics to back it up. A perfect example is what we saw on Thursday night in the season opener. Jahmyr Gibbs was a hot name and there was talk of him being heavily involved in the gameplan. What happened is veteran David Montgomery snatching the majority of snaps and attempts. (Thankfully he still got to the pay window with our first official prop of the year). Sure, we all think Bijan Robinson is going to be a bellcow back who tears up the league, but don’t you want to see it happen once before you jump on that train? Are we completely sure Tyler Allgeier isn’t going to grab half of the snaps in week one? We’re going to play a few hunches here to get the juices flowing and the season started, but we want to wait until week two before we really get going. There were a few unders on our radar, but we decided week one is all about optimism so we targeted players we’re expecting to play well in the opener. Our official plays are listed below, but we’ll throw out some leans for week one as well in case at the end of the article if you’re just itching to get a ton of bets placed.

Our Picks:

Dallas Goedert – Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The New England Patriots could end up with one of the top defenses in the league when it’s all said and done in the 2023 season. Despite that chance, 39.5 yards seems extremely low for Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert in what should be a bit of a slugfest road contest. For starters, we can look back a season ago to see Goedert averaged just under 60 yards per game, and was only held under 40 on three occasions. If that doesn’t get your engine going for this prop bet, we need to look at this matchup against the Patriots. New England figures to be really good at a couple of things on defense, rushing the passer and matching up at the corner positions. Combine that with Bill Belichick’s desire to take away a teams top weapon, which in this case would be two weapons of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and Goedert should be a beneficiary.

Keenan Allen – Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

Father time is undefeated in sports, and at some point this will hold true for Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen. The wideout pushed through injuries last year and is hoping to stay healthy and remain productive entering his 11th season in the league. The veteran may not be quite as elusive as he was in his younger days, but he still looked good when he was healthy. The Chargers do not lack for weapons on the offensive side of the ball as they added rookie Quentin Johnston at receiver to an already full room. Even with a lot of competition for targets, Allen should be in line for a productive game on Sunday. The Chargers could be in a track meet against the Dolphins and it’s likely both teams will be throwing the ball a lot. With Jalen Ramsey absent in the Miami secondary, the Dolphins will be in a lot of zone coverage, which is where Allen can really do his damage as a crafty route runner. It was just a year ago when Allen’s reception total was routinely sitting at 6.5 catches, so the dropoff seems a bit exaggerated at this point. There’s also that important factor of comfort and chemistry between a QB and WR, something Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen absolutely share. We’re expecting 6+ catches from Allen in this game, so we’ll take over 4.5 all day.

Dalton Kincaid – Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)

The Buffalo Bills are not generally known to play rookies early and often, but that will not be the case with tight end Dalton Kincaid. Throughout camp and the preseason, the Utah product was lined up with the starters and very active in the offensive game plan. He’ll make his debut against a tough Jets defense on the road in a very important early AFC East contest. A season ago, the Jets worked to take away Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, something they did pretty well with their talented corners. Assuming they go that route again, Josh Allen is going to need to find other players to throw the ball to. Enter Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. The Bills have several plays designed specifically for Kincaid, and in what will probably be a game where Allen needs to scramble against the Jets front, Kincaid could be a nice security blanket. We should probably mention the comparisons Kincaid has drawn to Travis Kelce, and figures to be used in a similar manner. Whether or not he’ll ever come close to achieving that type of career remains to be seen, however we won’t be shocked if his reception number starts climbing as the season goes on and we look back at 2.5 as ridiculously low.

Derek Carr – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

The Derek Carr era in New Orleans kicks off in a tough inter-conference matchup with the Tennessee Titans in the Caesars Superdome. The Saints are small favorites in what feels like a game that is going to be close throughout. The Saints are without Alvin Kamara for the first three games of the season so the backfield is a little thinner than they’d like as far as experience goes. That’s not ideal against what figures to be a sound run defense from the Titans front seven. Carr and the Saints would like to get off to a good start throwing the football, as would Michael Thomas as he finally returns from his recent injuries. Last season the Titans were horrendous against the pass, and while they should be a little better, it’s tough to see them being dominant versus aerial attacks. With those being factors, it seems like getting plus money on a bet for Carr to toss two touchdowns in his debut would seem like pretty good odds. You’ll notice we have Thomas listed as a lean at the bottom as well, but for our official wager we’re going to give the Saints new quarterback an opportunity to earn us as a fan.

J.K. Dobbins – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

In what feels like a minor miracle, the Baltimore Ravens enter the season almost completely healthy for the first in seemingly years. That includes running back J.K. Dobbins who has battled back from severe knee injuries and is hopefully back near full speed for the organization. We’ll see how he looks against the Texans in a home game where the Ravens are the heaviest favorites of the weekend. Baltimore boosted their receiving corp during the offseason, and with Lamar Jackson’s ability and threat to run, this offense could become pretty explosive. Whether that takes some time to happen or not, we do know they like to run the football, and Dobbins is the starting back, and most talented in their stable. Yes, we’ll see too much of Gus Edwards and some Justice Hill as well, but Dobbins should get the majority of the totes from the running back position. He’ll be facing a Texans defense that was one of the worst a season ago at stopping the run. They should be improved with a beefed up interior on their line, however the middle is a little soft with safety Jimmie Ward not likely to go, and Denzel Perryman, who is more of a middle cover type linebacker. We have Dobbins line around 15 carries and near 70 yards so we’ll give the back a chance in a game where game script should hopefully work in his favor.

Week 1 Leans:

Alexander Mattison – Under 64.5 Yards Rushing
Joshua Dobbs – Under 200.5 Yards Passing
Raheem Mostert – Over 52.5 Yards Rushing
Justin Jefferson – Over 92.5 Yards Receiving
D.J. Moore – Over 3.5 Receptions
Kirk Cousins – Over 271.5 Yards Passing
Michael Thomas – Over 3.5 Receptions

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