PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-5
SEASON RESULTS:
23-24
Week 8 Recap:
A rough week 8 drops us below .500 with Prop Corner, adding to a frustrating betting year overall in the NFL. Our two wins were on some backup running backs with low yardage totals we decided to back. Thankfully Jaleel McLaughlin and Ray Davis at least got us a pair of wins to keep the weekend from being a complete disaster. Our losses were all fairly ugly. We faded Baker Mayfield and Tony Pollard. Both far exceeded their totals, as Mayfield didn’t seem to miss Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at all. With the Titans getting completely blown out, they actually leaned on Pollard even more just to chew clock and get out of town. We also couldn’t get enough from Ja’Marr Chase, or Raheem Mostert, both of whom were held completely in check. And when Jordan Mason went out with injury in the prime time game, that bet was over before it even started. Ugly stuff that needs to be re-visited as we look ahead.
Week 9 Preview:
It’s a small slate for our week nine plays as we’re just backing four players we like to perform well. One quarterback, a pair of running backs, and a wide receiver for a little variety. Our fearsome foursome are below:
Our Picks:
Matthew Stafford – Over 241.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The numbers in the first month of the season were pretty paltry for the Rams Matthew Stafford as he had to adjust to losing his prized receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Don’t let that discourage you from backing him this weekend against the Seattle Seahawks in an important NFC West matchup. Stafford averages nearly 280 yards over the last 8 games he’s played with both Kupp and Nacua in the lineup. The Seahawks meanwhile have watched their defense crumble without a consistent pass rush, showing vulnerability against both the run and the pass. If you’re worried about the environment at Lumen Field in Seattle, you can rest a little easier as Stafford has thrown for 365 and 344 yards in his two trips there with the Rams. If you caught our week nine article you noticed we’re backing the Rams to win and cover, and this bet should go hand in hand with that.
Kareem Hunt – Over 61.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Time will tell whether or not the addition of DeAndre Hopkins is a game changer for the Kansas City offense, but one thing we know already is bring in Kareem Hunt definitely is. The Chiefs were left extremely thin when starting RB Isiah Pacheco went down, and many wondered if Kareem Hunt could provide much at this point of the season in his career? He’s answered the call averaging 21 carries per game in his 4 starts with the team. Monday night he’ll face a Buccaneers defense that is not the typical run stop unit we have come to expect from a Todd Bowles unit. In fact, TB is allowing over 5.2 yards rushing per carry, which ranks them 31st in the league through the first half of the season. The Chiefs are will continue to lean on their running game as they work on the continuity in the passing game with the shuffling at the position. Expect Hunt to get another 20 carries in this game, which should give him a very good shot at getting over his yardage number.
Brian Robinson – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We just mentioned the Buccaneers ranking 31st in the league in rushing defense (YPC), and now we get to fade the team that ranks dead last, which would be the New York Giants. Brian Robinson, Jr. was limited in practice this week, so this is by no means a slam dunk. But if he is healthy enough to play a normal snap share, he should absolutely be able to beat this total. In his young career, Robinson has averaged 80 yards per game against the Giants, easily beating this yardage number in four of the five outings. He’s also having a really nice breakout season, with the addition of Jayden Daniels, averaging over 4.6 yards per carry. If it weren’t for his health status, this is one we’d strongly consider playing a higher alternate total on. Since he’s a little dinged up, we’ll just back him to go over his normal posted number this weekend.
Jayden Reed – Over 43.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Green Bay Packers like to spread the ball around offensively, which can often make backing one of their receivers a shaky proposition. This weekend against the Lions, there should be plenty of yardage and work to go around for all of their weapons. Jayden Reed is arguably the most talented receiver on the roster and has posted some nice games this season when Jordan Love has been behind center. Love looks like he’ll be ready to go in the important divisional matchup against the Lions, which is great news for Reed. The Lions lost pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, but they are still one of the better teams stopping opposing runners. Additionally, the Lions are red hot on offense, lighting up scoreboards and forcing teams to play from behind. If running back Josh Jacobs is unable to dominate against that Lions defense, or if the Lions are putting up big points again, Green Bay will need to throw it a lot. One any given week, Jayden Reed can be their WR1, but even if he isn’t, he should still get enough targets to put up some decent yardage in this game. With his home run ability, it doesn’t take much to clear a low number like this yardage total. Script should get him over the bar.
