PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4
SEASON RESULTS:
31-18
Week 7 Recap:
Anytime you split a slate of player prop bets, there’s bound to be some hits and some misses. That’s exactly what we saw in a Sunday that ended up with a final tally of 4-4 on our eight wagers. Some cashed pretty easily, some weren’t close, and a few provided a nice sweat. We’ll start with the positives because it feels a lot better. Josh Allen was able to cover his over 1.5 touchdown passes with a great effort from Stefon Diggs in the fourth quarter. He had an earlier toss to James Cook, and actually had one taken off the board on their second drive of the game with a very questionable offensive pass interference call. In the same game we mentioned a potential breakout game for rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and he cashed his reception total in the first quarter with ease. We faded Rachaad White, and he continued his streak of subpar play and losing snap share giving us another win. And we rode the Kenneth Walker III cash train yet again as he topped the century mark, as we figured he would. Now for the negatives which do not feel so good. Jonathan Taylor made us eat some crow as we expected him to be shut down by the Browns and split with Zack Moss on touches. He garnered the heavier workload and had a couple of nice first half runs to get him over his mark. In that game, the Browns’ pathetic passing game was unable to get Amari Cooper involved in the action, which was surprising based on the Colts previous defense versus number one wideouts. We missed covering Saquon Barkley’s reception total by 1 catch as he was injured late, and couldn’t get that last target we needed. The biggest miss, that we’d gladly bet again, was Cooper Kupp who only grabbed two catches on the day. The Steelers doubled Kupp routinely, and got pressure on Matthew Stafford. All of that amounted to Puka Nacua being the receiving weapon for the Rams, and cementing our .500 day and squeezing out a little bit of lost juice to the book.
Week 8 Preview:
No quarterbacks on the card this weekend, well unless you count the guy for the Saints listed at tight end. We’re locked in on the running backs this week and some players with favorable and less than favorable matchups. We’ve found two wide receivers who have played well this season, yet aren’t yet given the respect of some of their peers. That could be due to the rest of their team’s performances, or quarterback performances. Seven total wagers locked and loaded. Have a great weekend!
Our Picks:
Kareem Hunt – Under 44.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Joining the team late and battling through an injury have kept Kareem Hunt from commanding the Browns backfield in the absence of Nick Chubb. Hunt gives the Browns the best chance of being successful on the ground, but he’s got an uphill battle when Cleveland travels to Seattle. The Seahawks have been downright nasty stopping the run allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and under 100 yards per game on average to opponents. The Browns got a mild surprise as Jerome Ford appears as though he will suit up for the game, meaning touches are likely to be split between him, Hunt and Pierre Strong, Jr. With Hunt potentially not seeing a ton of work, and the Seahawks ability to shut down power running backs, it’ll be tough for him to crack this mark in a physical road game.
Nico Collins – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
In case you haven’t been paying close attention to the Houston Texans, which is understandable, they’re doing some really nice things offensively. That starts with quarterback C.J. Stroud who is throwing the ball effectively, and looks poised for a rookie playing the position. His favorite target is wide receiver Nico Collins, who quietly is racking up some really nice yardage stats. In fact, he sits ahead of names like CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, and Brandon Aiyuk to name a few. When you look at his weekly yardage totals, they generally rest a solid 10-15 yards behind those players and others, which makes him an instant consideration. This week he faces a Carolina Panthers defense in a matchup that has a lot to offer for Collins and the Texans. The Panthers have not been great at generating pass rush consistently, and they’re likely to be down 3 or 4 of their top secondary players to injury and possibly pass rusher Brian Burns. A line that’s based too low from performance, plus a favorable matchup, definitely offers a good chance at a cover for Collins in week eight.
Dameon Pierce – Over 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Hold your nose when you learn we’re backing a running back’s over who is averaging 2.9 yards per carry during the 2023 NFL season. If you’re strictly an analytics bettor, this wager isn’t for you. Dameon Pierce has had a very disappointing season thus far despite the fact his quarterback has definitely kept defenses honest with his play. There’s always a story behind numbers though, and in the case of Dameon Pierce, it really has to do with the opponents he has faced. Pierce has gone up against some of the top rushing defenses in the league. Additionally, it’s worth mentioning his offensive line has been a patchworked unit through the first third of the season. Sunday he has four main things working in his favor. First, he gets a softer opponent to attack, as the Panthers are allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and will be without multiple starters on their defense. Second, that offensive line is as healthy as it’s been all year, which should result in a little extra room to run. Third, even with a lack of great results, the Texans continue to feed Pierce, so he should still see plenty of attempts. And lastly, the game script should keep this safe. It’s unlikely the Texans would be down big against the winless Panthers, so we should get a full game of rushing from the running backs. Two Texans overs in the same game, what is the world coming to?
Josh Jacobs – Under 65.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Since we’re backing a running back that’s averaging 2.9 yards per carry this weekend, it only seems right that we balance it out and fade a different RB with the same averages. Josh Jacobs has been unable to replicate his impressive 2022 season, and has only one game this year over this total. Part of the reason that one got over was because the team was blowing out their opponent, and he received a whopping 25 carries, still only notching 77 yards against New England. It’s doubtful the Raiders will be beating up on the Lions on the road, which means seeing a substantial volume is far less of a likelihood on Monday Night Football. The Lions defense meanwhile, has been one of the stingier groups across the league allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and surrendering only 534 yards on the season. Jacobs certainly has the history and talent to bust through a yardage total like this one, but 2023 Jacobs and the Raiders have not proven this to be a winning scenario at this point. Give us the under.
Breece Hall – Over 68.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
A battle between the two New Jersey teams starting backup quarterbacks will actually feature two exciting running backs as Breece Hall of the Jets and Saquon Barkley of the Giants should each shine. We’re backing the “road” running back playing on his normal home field, simply because he’s facing the weaker defense. The Giants have been vulnerable, particularly against speedy running backs, which Hall certainly is. From everything the young running back has stated, his knee feels great and he has next to no limitations now and moving forward. He should have some opportunities to break some decent runs, which makes playing him this weekend appealing. Hall has had some duds this year against solid opponents, but he’s definitely roasted some of the lesser teams he’s played, and carries a great average per tote. He should see a full workload this week, and with one or two big runs, we’re banking on him getting over his yardage total.
Kendrick Bourne – Over 42.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Offense has been a struggle for the New England Patriots this season, but maybe they’ve found a rhythm? The one piece of their offense that has been pretty consistent this season has been wide receiver Kendrick Bourne. He’s basically been the one bright spot and has ramped up his production the past couple of weeks snagging 10 and 6 passes, respectively. Sunday he’ll have another division matchup against the Miami Dolphins, a team that is known for their offense firepower. The Patriots will certainly try to establish the run and control the time of possession, but chances are they’ll be trailing in this football game. Even if they aren’t, Bourne will be a key target for Mac Jones after emerging as his go-to weapon in the passing game. The Dolphins meanwhile, will be without starting safety Jevon Holland, and possibly cornerback Xavien Howard. Jalen Ramsey may make his season debut, but will be on a limited pitch count. Bourne is averaging over 50 yards per game, so when you factor in the two points above, this number feels too low. We’ll definitely take a gamble on Bourne in this matchup.
Taysom Hill – Over 10.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
If you believe in fading the public, you’ll probably want to steer clear of this bet too. The BetCrushers aren’t the only ones who found what we thought was an under the radar sneaky player prop. Apparently wagering on Taysom Hill is the trendy thing to do in week eight, but we’re sticking with our initial plan and still betting it, even if everyone else in the world is too. Derek Carr has not exactly been lighting things up for the Saints offense, which has resulted in Taysom Hill getting some snaps at quarterback, and averaging 3+ carries per game. Hill runs hard and has the quickness to turn the corner as well. If Hill gets his usual 3 carries, he should be able to crack this mark against the Colts. If this bet loses, we’re blaming the rest of America.
