PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
7-1-1
SEASON RESULTS:
37-18-2
Week 7 Recap:
The best adjective that we can throw out there for week number seven in the NFL was “outstanding”. This is partially because we had a phenomenal day betting, but also due to some really exciting games, and cashing some player props so early in the game, it took the pressure off from the start. The quickest cashers were the overs with Davante Adams and Randall Cobb who each beat their numbers in the first quarter. The great Derrick Henry never really threatened his total as the Titans fell behind, making that a safe under bet. Nowhere near as safe as the under bets of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton however, as neither were able to finish the game. Dalton due to injury, Newton from poor play. Even had they completed all four quarters they were never even close to putting up the yards they needed to win, again making some simple W’s for us. Another easy cash was Keenan Allen who was catching passes easily and at-will against an overmatched Jaguars defense. We thought we’d also be able to chalk up a win with Stefon Diggs catch total as he had the number pushed with a quarter and a half to play, but wasn’t able to catch the final ball, making it a tie. Our lone loss was Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz who fell just a few yards short of beating his yardage total. We’re more than pleased anytime we can do a 7-1-1, but it’s even more gratifying when the handicap was spot on and the wins were so dominant.
Week 8 Preview:
The BetCrushers listed out a six pack of NFL wagers for the weekend and have these seven player props added into the mix. The two unders we are taking are within the same matchup between the Steelers and the Ravens, and we have a pair of overs for the Cincinnati Bengals. Some strategic plays on a few other overs round out the selections and we’ll hope the weather doesn’t interfere too much with our anticipated bets.
Our Picks:
Lamar Jackson – Under 217.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Looking back at history between players and teams is always valuable when examining player prop bets. Unfortunately, there is only one matchup between Lamar Jackson and the Steelers to refer back to, which makes the sample size mostly irrelevant. It’s at least worth mentioning that Jackson did struggle throwing the football in that game with only 155 yards. Jackson has not really thrown it well this year in general despite guiding his team to a 5-1 record. You kinda get the feeling that this is going to be a grinding game with some longer drives that may not have a lot of big plays. Outside of a 275 yard performance in week one against the Browns, Jackson is averaging just 189 yards per game and has not gone over this prop total of 217.5 a single time. It seems like this would not be the game where he would eclipse that mark against a very strong Steelers defense that has been playing well against the pass. Pittsburgh is going to make Jackson earn it both running and throwing and the odds certainly seem to favor the under with his passing yardage.
James Conner – Under 64.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
This is a tricky wager as Conner has been playing really good football this season and has logged season high 20 carries in the last two ballgames. It’s certainly not impossible that he could have another strong performance, but we’re going the opposite direction against the tough Baltimore defense. Much as we described with Jackson, these players are going to have to earn every yard they fight for. It’s possible that we see a little more of Benny Snell in this game, and that the Steelers attempt to use Conner in the passing game to avoid running straight into the teeth of the Ravens defense. In 5 career games versus the Ravens Conner has averaged just 42 yards rushing per game and barely 10 carries. He should do a little better than that on Sunday, however 64.5 seems just a bit high to us.
Joe Burrow – Over 289.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Things could get ugly in Cincinnati as the Titans are seemingly going to score a lot of points against the struggling Bengals defense. Burrow has already been proven he can keep his team competitive and he should manage some points of his own as the Titans defense has certainly not been great in its own right. Since week two Burrow is averaging over 320 yards passing per game as his receiving corp is as good as any in the league. With running back Joe Mixon sidelined again and down three offensive lineman it’s difficult to imagine the Bengals running the ball well. The Titans are far more vulnerable against the pass and have given up a lot of big plays. Look for Burrow to crack the 300 yard mark yet again and hit his yardage over.
Tyler Boyd – Over 57.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
We already gave you the synopsis on why we like Burrow throwing so there isn’t a full recap needed here for why we like Tyler Boyd. What we can point out is that Boyd has been killing weaker defensive opponents. The only games he hasn’t hit this yardage are against the Ravens, Colts and week one against the Chargers. It’ll be a lot easier for him against the Titans as he has emerged as Burrow’s favorite target of the teams talented trio of receivers. In a game where the Bengals will need to score 30+ to win Boyd should see plenty of targets and rack up some yards whether the team is competitive or not.
Kenny Golladay – Over 67.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Hopefully we’re not late to the party and off-cycle in grabbing Kenny Golladay’s over yards this Sunday against a tough Colts defense. We were close, but didn’t pull the trigger the last few weeks and regretted that decision as Golladay has been really good since starting the season on the shelf. The Colts defense is no joke so this won’t be easy, but were banking on a couple things playing in Golladay’s favor here. First, they’re in the familiar confines of their dome where he has generally performed well. Despite Matthew Stafford not lighting things up as we anticipated, he has still locked on to Golladay over all of his other targets as guys like Marvin Jones have virtually disappeared. It’s clear this offense likes to run their passing game through the talented Golladay and he’s proven he can make plays even when covered. This one could take the full 60 minutes to get over, however we like it to happen at some point during regulation.
Josh Allen – Over 230.5 Yards Passing (-110)
When you look back at Josh Allen’s young career, he has struggled more against the Patriots than any other opponent. Of course he’s not the only young QB to have challenges solving the Bill Belichick puzzle on defense. So why would we be willing to put our money on bucking that trend this weekend? For starters, this is not the same Josh Allen who has faced the Patriots in his first two seasons. That Allen had never tossed a 300 yard game. Allen has 4 of those already this season as he’s elevated his passing with the team asking him to run less. His weapons on the outside are greatly improved with the addition of Stefon Diggs as his main target. He gets his number two receiver back from injury in John Brown which will keep this team moving forward, along with Cole Beasley who has really stepped up his play as well. It’s still unknown whether or not Stephon Gilmore will be playing and we’ll of course hope for this bet that he won’t. Despite a complete dud against the Chiefs in primetime, Allen is still averaging 289 yards passing per game. He may not make it to his average in what many believe will be a low-scoring and close game, but with 50+ yards to spare in the error of margin we’re going to give it the benefit of the doubt.
Darren Waller – Over 52.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
The world is going to learn a lot about both the Raiders and the Browns as the winner of this game could be looked at as a contender, while the loser will be viewed as a bit of a pretender. Baker Mayfield will be adjusting to not having Odell Beckham, Jr., which actually may not be the worst thing in the world as he can play loose and spread the ball around. Throughout this part of the season we’ve seen the Raiders playing a lot of high scoring games, and when you look at this contest it should be more of the same. The weather looks “ok” for this game, although there could be a little wind and rain potentially. Derek Carr has been pushing the ball downfield, but that little bit of weather could make for more shorter looks across the middle of the field where Waller can make a difference. More importantly, the Browns have been terrible defending opposing tight ends. They’ve been beaten by TEs with far lesser ability and experience than Waller. Expect a big game from Waller.
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