PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4
SEASON RESULTS:
17-16
Week 5 Recap:
A fast start to the Prop Corner weekend fizzled out when the late window opened up in the second half of the day. We started out with a sweep early as Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs both exceeded their yardage and reception totals, respectively. Additionally, Tank Bigsby not only topped his rushing total of 26.5 yards, but he topped 100 on the day. After that, things went a bit downhill. We had two plays in the Packers contest, splitting the two. Josh Jacobs managed to climb past his yardage mark, but Dontayvion Wicks was not able to take advantage of the absences of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Jauan Jennings was a non-factor for the 49ers as the focus shifted back to Brandon Aiyuk, and we missed badly on fading rookie Tyrone Tracy, Jr. in his surprising debut start for the Giants.
Week 6 Preview:
We’ve got a lucky (we hope) seven player prop bets for week six that include just one quarterback. We’re focused in on the runners this week and a forgotten about tight end, and hopefully found a decent edge on the players you’re reading about below. We’re up one and down one in the Eagles game, with that one being our lone fade of the weekend. Plenty to consider no matter what your preferences!
Our Picks:
Jalen Hurts – Under 40.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
There was a time two seasons ago where Jalen Hurts rushing yardage was an automatic cash for an over. Nothing good lasts however, and Hurts is now less reliable with his legs. He absolutely still has the ability to run, and will undoubtedly get some totes in this game against the Browns, but cracking 40+ yards is certainly no given. In fact, in three of his four this season he has fallen short of that mark. Sunday he gets his weapons back in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, which would make one guess he’ll be more in the pocket passing mode than the tucking and running option. The Browns have a lot of practice slowing down mobile quarterbacks, so this formula just seems to lend itself to staying under.
Saquon Barkley – Over 86.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Has there been any running back more consistent this year at high-level production than Saquon Barkley through the first quarter of the season? The Eagles new addition has been flourishing behind an actual offensive line, and he’ll once again lead the charge for the Philadelphia ground game. Since you saw we were fading Jalen Hurts running the ball, that means someone else needs to, and that someone is obviously Barkley. The Browns defense has been disappointing all season, and they’re currently allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing runners. As the weather starts to turn, this offense will continue to lean more and more on Barkley, and he should continue to find success as long as he’s healthy. At this point, off of a week of rest, he seems like an over play, until it’s proven otherwise.
Josh Jacobs – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We rode Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs to an over cover last week at this exact same number, so why not go for two in a row? The matchup is right, as the Cardinals are allowing a lot of yards on the ground, especially on the road. Jacobs is settling in nicely in Green Bay, and is averaging 80 yards per game, despite facing a pair of the league’s toughest rush defenses in weeks three and four. In the games where he has played against poor run defenses, (Rams, Colts, Eagles), he has gone for 84, 151, and 73, respectively. The Cardinals rush defense falls into the category of not good, so Jacobs should do well again. The game script should also work in the favor of Jacobs here as the Packers are 5.5 point favorites and could be in control in the second half. Let’s see if Jacobs can crack 67.5 yards for a second week in a row.
Tyler Allgeier – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Taking a backup running back to hit an over can always put a pit in your stomach, as it’s always possible the volume won’t be there. In the right matchups though, there can also be a huge edge if things can go to a game script you’re anticipating. We’re anticipating a couple of things here that have us playing the over for Falcons running back Tyler Allegeier on Sunday. First, the Carolina Panthers defense, which was not great to begin with, is absolutely ravaged with injuries in their front seven. They’re basically putting practice squad guys out there to try to defend a Falcons offensive line that is built to run block. Second, the Falcons are heavy favorites, and should be looking to attack a lot on the ground throughout the game. When you add in the fact starting running back Bijan Robinson has been fighting through an injury, you have to believe the Falcons would want to keep him as rested as possible. Allgeier has averaged 8 carries a game since week one, and if he can get that here, he’d have a great shot to go over against the leaky defense of the Panthers. We’re expecting double digit carries from him this weekend, which should be enough to put him over his total.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 59.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We’re oh so tempted to double-dip with David Montgomery in this matchup between the Lions and the Cowboys, but we’re going to just stick with Jahmyr Gibbs this week. Gibbs and Montgomery have seen a similar snap and rush share so far this season, but Gibbs has been consistently more explosive, as you might expect. It’s no secret the Lions want to run the football, and it’s also no secret the Cowboys, although recently a little better, aren’t particularly great at stopping the run. What’s also interesting, is the Cowboys have been much better stopping the run in the first half, as apparently wearing down in the second half has been an issue. With Montgomery loosening things up early, Gibbs should reap the benefits late. Gibbs is averaging a strong 5.3 yards per carry and has averaged over 14 carries per game in his last three contests with over a six yard per carry average in those. On the fast track in Dallas, we’re banking on one of the fastest runners to get it done.
Dalton Schultz – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
After a slow start to the 2024 season Texans tight end Dalton Schultz is starting to warm up a bit. This play however is strictly circumstance based, as the loss of Nico Collins is going to force some targets elsewhere. When Collins left the game last weekend, Schultz had zero targets and receptions. He finished the game with 6 targets and 34 yards all in the second half. That provides enough of a glimpse for us that he’s going to be more involved in the game plan and gives quarterback C.J. Stroud some comfort at the tight end position. When you throw in the fact the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing tight ends, this play really adds up nicely. Side note – You can also play Schultz receptions at over 3.5 for +120, which offers a nice incentive.
Alvin Kamara – Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Saints running back Alvin Kamara has put up over 40 yards receiving in each of his last four games. Sunday he’ll face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team he has gone over that total on in 10 of his 14 career meetings. The note on Kamara is out there. In games where the Saints are underdogs, or face tough rush defenses, get on his receiving totals. That’s what we’re doing here, as Kamara and the Saints are underdogs in the first career start for quarterback Spencer Rattler. The general rule for rookie quarterbacks is to keep an eye on their running backs and tight ends for easy completions and reads. We’re expecting some screen passes to Kamara to get him involved, and some check downs as well. History tells us this number should be more around the 40 yard mark, so at 32.5 we’re buyers.
