PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4

SEASON RESULTS:
18-21

Week 5 Recap:

If you want the epitome of average, look no further than what we provided with our week five player prop picks. We might as well start with the positives, beginning with Dalvin Cook who gashed the Bears run defense, eclipsing his rushing mark in the late third quarter. We got a little break in the New England Patriots game when Damien Harris was injured in the first half, giving Rhamondre Stevenson a lot of work and leading to nearly 200 total yards. Stevenson probably would have gotten there anyhow, but the easy cover there certainly is one we’ll take. We picked our spot with Carson Wentz, and despite what was probably not an amazing performance, the stats certainly were. He crushed his passing total, clearing it by over 100 yards. One of our fade wins was on Steelers running back Najee Harris who had an uphill battle against a tough Bills defense, and wound up only rushing for 20 yards. Our losses were quick and painful, as Austin Ekeler busted a 70+ yard run on the opening drive for the Chargers, destroying the under in one play. Matthew Stafford also hit a couple of long passes early, and even though he did very little in the second half, the big plays also doomed his under. Our worst read was on Ja’Marr Chase, as he and the Bengals offense struggled again in what turned out to be a hard fought and physical divisional battle. Normally, we’d just shrug our shoulders with a .500 weekend, but needing to dig out of a hole, it’s simply not good enough.

Week 6 Preview:

For the first weekend this season we have no passing props on the card, and actually no wide receivers at all. We do have a repeat play with a running back that cashed a week ago, and looks like it could very possibly get to the pay window again. We’re also re-visiting a player who was a cash cow in 2021, that we’ll be playing in a different capacity. A pair of tight ends and a dominating running back round out the ticket, giving us five wagers in week number six.

Our Picks:

Najee Harris – Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

There’s not many people arguing about the potential talent that Steeler’s running back Najee Harris possesses both running and receiving. It’s also hard to argue that he really has the deck stacked against him right now, and in this Sunday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In previous years, it might be because of the dominant run defense TB routinely put out, but that’s not really the case this year. The Bucs are still solid against the run, just lot elite as we had gotten used to seeing. Despite that, they should be able to keep the clamps on Harris in this football game for several reasons. First, the Steelers are nearly double-digit underdogs for the second week in a row, so the game script could have them abandoning the run in the second half, much as it did last week in their loss to the Bills. Second, Harris is still battling some nagging injuries, so how effective he can play, or will play is still a bit of a question mark. His offensive line is also not doing him any favors as he has very little room to operate, and will struggle against players like Vita Vea and the linebackers for the Bucs. Finally, we’ll point out that Oklahoma State rookie Jaylen Warren has actually outplayed Harris, and it’s possible he could see an increased workload in this game. Add all of that up, and we’ll fade Harris for the second week in a row.

Saquon Barkley – Over 103.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Saquon Barkley seems to look stronger and faster each week as he’s clearly recovered from several very serious injuries. His All-Pro caliber play has helped steer the New York Giants to a surprising 4-1 record with a chance to grab win number five at home against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. If you followed our bets for this week you saw we like the Ravens in this game, however that doesn’t mean that Barkley won’t still put up an impressive stat line. The Giants will once again be without Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard keeping a lot of the workload on the shoulders of Barkley in both the running game and as a receiver. The Ravens defense is not the shutdown unit it has traditionally been, and they’ve been surprisingly vulnerable against the run. Barkley should find some room to run and we’re anticipating a 100 yard rushing day, as long as the Giants are competitive in the game. He’ll always grab at least a couple of passes as well, and if they are trailing, could grab some additional receptions. Against a suspect and injured defense, Barkley should be able to continue his strong comeback season.

David Njoku – Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)

The next player we’re looking at to have a good game this weekend is Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku. It’s absolutely ridiculous that it took the Browns this long to figure out how to use the talented player from the University of Miami, but better late than never, right? Njoku is an athletic specimen who can run with speed and power and has worked hard on his ball security and hands. Over the past three weeks he’s had 20 catches on 25 targets, fourth amongst tight ends in the league. He should continue that streak when the Browns host the Patriots in Cleveland. New England and their coaching staff always looks to take away a team’s top option and threat, which in Cleveland is the running game and particularly Nick Chubb. On the receiving end, Amari Cooper will get any attention from the secondary there. That will leave plenty of opportunities for Njoku as the forgotten weapon in the offense, an offense that he’s developing some serious chemistry in with quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The sportsbooks haven’t yet adjusted to Njoku’s new involvement in the offense as this number clearly is still factoring his slow start in weeks one and two. We’re hammering the over here.

Tyler Higbee – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

Before you decide if you want to look at Ram’s tight end Tyler Higbee for a potential player prop, it’s important to note that he does carry a questionable injury designation into their contest versus the Panthers. All signs point to him being fine to go so we’re all in on the consistent target for Matthew Stafford and the Rams. There’s not secret that Matthew Stafford has struggled to find any kind of passing rhythm or productivity with anyone not named Cooper Kupp, or to a quieter degree, Tyler Higbee. The Rams have what they hope is a “get right” type of game against P.J. Walker and the Panthers with an interim head coach at home on Sunday. Until wide receiver Van Jefferson returns, it’s pretty apparent we’re just going to continue to see a lot of Higbee and Cupp. Although he’s also banged up, the Panthers will be bringing third rated man cover cornerback Jaycee Horn into this contest to lock up with Cupp. That should give a couple of extra looks Higbee’s way, and he’s already seeing near an average of double digit targets each game. His last four game reception numbers go 7, 10, 4, 7 so the odds certainly seem to point in the favor of an over, even with an average game.

Jalen Hurts – Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

Sunday Night Football has a pretty good ballgame between the Cowboys and Eagles that could lengthen the distance between the two teams, or even it up. A lot of the discussion will be on the potential incoming return of quarterback Dak Prescott, and how admirably Cooper Rush has filled in for the Dallas Cowboys. In reality, it’s Hurts who should be the guy getting the majority of the discussion as he continues to evolve and development into not only a franchise quarterback, but one of the games top threats at the position. One of the obvious areas that help make him that threat is his ability to scramble and run when necessary to pick up first downs and make plays. He’ll have to use his legs against one of the better pass rushes in the league for the Cowboys, specifically Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. In what will likely be a hard fought game, Hurts should see plenty of opportunities to make plays both throwing and running, even if he’s under some pressure. His yardage totals this season have been a little up and down, but one thing that’s remained mostly steady is the amount of carries he’s getting each game. At 9.5 attempts, this number seems almost too good to be true as he’s only stayed under that one time this year, and even in that game against the Commanders, he still had 9 totes. The last two weeks he’s had 16 and 15 carries, respectively, and sandwiched before that Washington game, 11 and 17. If you follow the BetCrushers you know we love taking quarterback rushing props on primetime games as well, as they are more willing to showcase to make big plays, and don’t want to force bad turnovers. Hurts should eclipse double digit carries in this football game.

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