PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-3
SEASON RESULTS:
26-13-1
Week 5 Recap:
It’s not as though a 5-3 mark is anything to complain about in the world of sports gambling, but we’ve just gotten used to hitting these props at a higher clip so it feels deflating. Throw in the fact that we lost one by the hook of .5 of a catch from DeAndre Hopkins and 2.5 passing yards from Baker Mayfield and it stings a little more. The bets we covered, were taken care of pretty easily, while the losses were close, so at least the reads were on point. Another of our losses was the over with Dak Prescott, which ended like Prescott’s season when his ankle was rolled over. It would have been dicey for Prescott to hit the over based on pace, but it certainly was still in play at the very least. Again, a winning weekend is a winning weekend, let’s keep it rolling.
Week 6 Preview:
Until we start struggling we’re staying superstitious with 8 player prop plays yet again in week six. Some different faces in this week’s edition, headlined by two QBs, a trio of RBs, and three wide receivers. We’re throwing shade on the quarterbacks as we foresee some less than productive days for them, while we’re going over with the skill positions, with the exception of one running back.
Our Picks:
Deshaun Watson – Under 289.5 Yards Passing (-110)
The Texans earned their first victory last Sunday and finally got their offense going in the process. We’re looking at that as more of an anomaly, rather than a new identity for this Houston team as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Over the past few seasons these teams have more slugged it out as opposed to being in major shootouts. The Titans defense is getting healthy at the right time and they match up favorably against this Texans offense. Watson will look to push the ball down the field as usual, but may struggle against a speedy Tennessee secondary. Jadeveon Clowney is questionable to go, but he should suit up and be ready to go against his former team. 250 yards seems about where Watson will land in this game, we’ll take the under.
Adam Thielen – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)
Wagering on anything involving Kirk Cousins is always a bit of a dicey proposition, so working with Adam Thielen has inherent risk. Realistically, this prop bet seems almost too good to be true as Thielen should have a huge day, and this is the type of game that Cousins excels in. The Falcons have given up the second most completions and yards in the NFL as they are playing with nearly all backups in their secondary. It’s possible that we see a lot of Alexander Mattison, but this game should at least be relatively close as the Vikings are -4 point favorites. With it being close, Thielen and fellow wideout Justin Jefferson should both have solid days. As a side note, you can get Jefferson at just 4.5 catches if you prefer that one, but we’ll go with the more experience Thielen here.
Jared Goff – Under 274.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Before we discuss the why of taking an under on Jared Goff it’s important to give the guy his credit for how he’s played this season. Goff has a QB rating over 100 and has done a nice job converting third downs and taking care of the football with only 2 interceptions on the season. So why would we be fading him this weekend against the 49ers you ask? Because outside of a furious 2nd half comeback against a huge deficit against the Bills, this Rams offense is different from the one that propelled them to the Super Bowl two seasons ago. It’s more balanced with a running back committee for starters, and Goff is not throwing the ball downfield nearly as much as his two favorite targets Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are more of move-the-chains type receivers. The Niners are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins where Ryan Fitzpatrick torched them up and down the field. Don’t let that one game scare you into thinking this San Francisco defense is suddenly terrible. Yes, they’re banged up and not as dominant as they’ve been, but they’re still a quality unit despite that showing against Miami. This should be a closely contested divisional rivalry game and could be lower scoring.
DeAndre Hopkins – Over 81.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
We had a mild bad beat as we lost by the .5 half catch hook on DeAndre Hopkins receptions over last week. Instead of shying away from Hopkins we’re going right back to him in a very favorable matchup in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys. For purposes of better juice we’re going with his yardage total as opposed to his reception total, but he should eclipse both in what should be a high scoring game. Hopkins and the Cardinals offense have cooled off a bit after a torridly hot start, but the Cowboys defense could be exactly what they need to get things going again. Assuming Andy Dalton can keep the Cowboys offense moving, which we believe he will, the Cardinals should be throwing a lot. The play here is pretty simple, we’re going over Hopkins averages for the game against a team with a far below average defense.
Jamison Crowder – Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
The Jets are the worst team in the league this season, and there’s a fairly sizeable margin between their closest competition for that dubious distinction. If you’re looking for some kind of silver lining, it has to be what Jamison Crowder has done for this team at the wide receiver position. After getting through an early season injury he’s hit the ground running and been as productive as any receiver in the league the past three weeks. The Jets are of course heavy underdogs again and you can figure they’ll be trailing in this game versus the Miami Dolphins. With the immobile Joe Flacco starting for the Jets at QB, Crowder should continue to see a lot of quick targets in the slot. Throw into the fact that with Le’Veon Bell now off the roster, there should be even more passing situations throughout the game. The juice is at our peak, but at just over 5.5 catches for a player who has caught 7,7, and 8 passes respectively in his three games, we’ll bank on him getting to six or more.
David Montgomery – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The last two weeks of production, with the term used loosely for David Montgomery have seen 20 total carries for 53 yards. His rushing yardage prop total against the Panthers is set just below that as he’ll need to top 52 yards to cash in if you’re on the over, as we are. It’s important to look at Montgomery and his stats in full context. His recent two weeks come against two of the top 5 rush defenses in the league. In his earlier season games, Montgomery was averaging nearly 5 yards per carry against weaker opponents. Fortunately for the Bears and Montgomery, the date with the Panthers could be just what the doctor ordered to get back on the production train. Carolina is allowing nearly 5.5 yards per rush and have yet to slow down an opponents running game this season. With Tarik Cohen in IR it’s Montgomery as the primary runner in this offense, and if the Bears can do what they’d like he’ll likely have a heavy workload on Sunday. It would seem that as long as Montgomery can get to a dozen carries or so, he should be able to go over this total. A near 100 yard day is certainly not out of the question as long as the Bears don’t fall far behind in the contest.
Kareem Hunt – Under 64.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
When we circled this prop it was much more about the matchup and competition than it was the player itself. Kareem Hunt has looked as strong as any running back in the league both when splitting time with Nick Chubb, and now in the lead back role. His toughest test to date comes on Sunday against division rival Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. The Steelers front seven is playing great as expected and it always starts with stopping the run. The Steelers are giving up a league leading 256 yards on the season with a stingy 3.3 yards per attempt to opposing backs. A week ago Miles Sanders had the best game of the season for a back against Pittsburgh as he finished with 70 yards rushing. The reality of it is that 64 came on one busted long running play. Outside of that burst he had just 6 yards on 9 carries. Hunt is a physical runner, but it’ll be tough for him to outmuscle this Steelers defense. Add in the fact the Browns leading run blocker in guard Wyatt Teller will be sitting this one out and it might be tough sledding for Hunt.
Jonathan Taylor – Over 81.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
If you fully play the stats when you’re wagering this next player prop isn’t going to be for you. We’re playing both a bit of a hunch, and an enticing matchup with Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor as they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Indy was beaten at their own game of physical football and good defense against a Browns team that is playing really well, and they’ll need to bounce back in a home game they should win. Taylor is the number one back in Indianapolis with the season-ending injury to Marlon Mack, but he does share some touches with Nyheim Hines. That being said, this looks to be a great breakout spot for the rookie as the Bengals have struggled all season slowing down the run. They’ll again be down 2 defensive tackles, most notably big D.J. Reader which should open up some nice holes through the middle of the defense. The Colts offensive line is one of the best in the league and should dominate this ballgame. Additionally, the Colts are pretty big favorites. If they can get up early, there should be plenty of opportunities for Taylor to touch the ball.
