PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-2

SEASON RESULTS:
21-10-1

Week 4 Recap:

If you had told us we’d be hitting 68% on our player props at the quarter mark of unique 2020 NFL season we would have been ecstatic to take that. Just like a team that gets off to a hot start in the first quarter, our goal is to keep our foot on the pedal and continue to make good wagers and profits for the rest of the year. Week 4 was good to us as our 6-2 mark was pretty spot on with really only one miss, and a second on a flyer bet we decided to make for fun, that we regretfully wish we could have back. Our two losses were with the veteran quarterbacks who proved us wrong, something Tom Brady has been doing to us for our entire careers. Despite those two losses, it felt great to nail the Will Fuller V prop, and give out some plays of lesser known players like James Robinson and Dalton Schultz who covered pretty easily. With scoring being at an all-time high, taking player overs is proving to be a complimentary way to generate profit thus far in the season.

Week 5 Preview:

So far selecting our 8 favorite props has worked well for us in 2020, so we’re going to stick with that for the time being. Truth be told, there were about 12 player props we really liked, but narrowed it down to what we felt were the top 8. As has been the case with points being racked up each week, we’re still heavy on the player overs, although we do have two quarterbacks that we feel are not going to get there with their yardage totals. We’ve got two games with multiple player props, one of which is a little bit of a double-down move, the other is slightly contradictory. Our best explanations and thoughts are below. Best of luck this weekend!

Our Picks:

Baker Mayfield – Under 244.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The Cleveland Browns are clearly better when they’re flying under the radar a bit, and not everyone’s trendy pick to be Super Bowl Champions. The same seems to be holding true for Baker Mayfield who is quietly putting together a pretty nice season leading Cleveland to early success in the W-L column. Lost in the fact that the Browns have a lot of star talent on offense is the fact that Mayfield has essentially been asked to be a game manager. This bet almost seems too easy, which is always a little scary when you look at taking his under yardage total set at 244.5. Here are Mayfield’s yardage totals through the first four weeks: 189, 219, 156, and 165. The last coming against a pretty pathetic Cowboys defense. Why his total would be set 60 yards higher than his average against the number one rated defense and pass defense in the league seems very peculiar. It may be a trap, but we’re not going to overthink this one. Even with some injuries to that Colts defense, it doesn’t seem likely that Mayfield would find this game as the one to start airing it out and making big plays down the field.

Jarvis Landry – Over 3.5 Receptions (-135)

It definitely is a little strange to be taking one players over who relies on the other play we just listed as an under. Allow us to explain. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski specifically brought attention to the slow start that Jarvis Landry has had in the passing game and wants to get him going. Add in the fact that Landry’s best work has come on third downs, something against the Colts defense the Browns are likely to face often. Total that up with the fact that Landry is still averaging 4.5 receptions and this seems to line up for a 6 receptions for 45 yards type of game for the physical Landry. This is the highest juice you’ll see us play with a player prop, and if you can get positive money for 4 catches, we’d recommend going that route. This one seems like another layup in this football game.

Dak Prescott – Over 312.5 Yards Passing (-110)

At some point the milk is going to go bad for Dak Prescott and this Cowboys offense in terms of the record-setting pace that they’re on. If anyone knows how to slow Prescott and the offense down it would seem to be Jason Garrett who will be helping his new team, division opponent, the New York Giants with that this weekend. Our philosophy here is pretty simple, we’re riding Prescott until the wheels fall off. For a guy who is routinely throwing in the 400s, 314.5 seems very do-able, even against a slightly over-achieving Giants defense. The biggest concern with this bet in our opinion, is whether or not the Giants can score enough to keep Dak throwing?

CeeDee Lamb – Over 58.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

A strategic double-dip as we’re not only banking on another strong day from Dak Prescott, but also a good performance from rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb. We mentioned last week that we wanted to take Cooper Kupp’s yardage total against the Giants because Robert Woods was going to primarily draw James Bradberry who is playing lights out for New York. The theory here is the exact same. Bradberry will be locked up often with Amari Cooper meaning Lamb should see some nice targets. His speed and big play ability, and a nice stretch the last couple of weeks make him very playable as an over in this game.

Robby Anderson – Over 71.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

One of the players having the quietest big-time season so far is Carolina Panthers wide receiver Robby Anderson. After leaving the Jets, Anderson has teamed up with fellow wideout D.J. Moore to give Teddy Bridgewater some really nice weapons on the outside. Anderson will look to stay hot against an Atlanta Falcons defense and secondary that are once again decimated by injuries. If you caught their game against Green Bay, you noticed that with less than talented backups on the field, they were lost, allowing open receivers all over the field. Teddy Bridgewater is obviously not Aaron Rodgers, but Moore and Anderson are certainly a notch above Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan. This game should be a pretty high-scoring affair and with Anderson averaging over 80 yards per game, it seems he should be in a good spot to hit at least his average here.

D.K. Metcalf – Over 72.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Were you aware that the leading receiver thus far in the 2020 season is the Seahawks D.K. Metcalf? Don’t let his mental gaffe of losing the football on the one yard line take away from the fact that this guy is the real deal. Many people, including the BetCrushers were surprised when Metcalf fell in the draft last year, and he’s proving any doubters wrong. Another game where points will be plentiful when the Hawks host the Minnesota Vikings. Russell Wilson is on an absolute mission and this Vikings secondary has struggled all season. Both Metcalf and Lockett should have big games, but we opted to take Metcalf as Lockett’s success is often determined on a big play. Metcalf is capable of a big play, but could also grind his way to his reception total throughout the course of the game. It’s possible Seattle could get up early and turn to the running game, but there defense has struggled enough that the Vikings should stay in the game making Metcalf a very solid wager.

DeAndre Hopkins – Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)

The Arizona Cardinals were surprisingly bad last weekend in a game they should have dominated, at least offensively. They’ll look to rebound against the hapless Jets who are starting Joe Flacco at quarterback. The Jets have been surprisingly good against the pass, however that’s mostly due to the fact that teams have been up big against them and they’ve not been thrown on much in the second half of games. This is a “get-right” game for the Cardinals and it’s going to start with their best players. DeAndre Hopkins has been targeted more than any receiver in the league and that will continue on Sunday. Much like Michael Thomas last season, there is a threshold where Hopkins should just be an automatic play, and that is anything under 7 catches. The really fantastic thing about this week is the total is not only set at 6.5 but also at plus money as it’s currently set at over 6.5 at +110 money. Even if the Cardinals get up early, Hopkins should still get a lot of third down targets. Can DeAndre grab 7 balls against the worst team in the league? Yeah, we’re betting on that.

Ben Roethlisberger – Under 279.5 Yards Passing (-110)

It isn’t all about overs this week as we bookended two quarterbacks that we don’t think are going to make their projected numbers. Much like Baker Mayfield, Ben Roethlisberger is playing good football with a 105.2 QB rating as he’s gotten the Steelers off to a great start. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s chucking the ball all around the field though. Against three of the league’s less impressive defenses, Big Ben is averaging a very respectable, but not amazing 259 yards per game. Sunday he’ll face an Eagles team that is as much of a rivalry game as two teams that only see each other every four years can be. This game has one of the lowest over/under totals of this season and looks like it’ll be shaping up to be a bit of a slugfest. A year ago the Eagles secondary was getting torched every week, but so far this year they’ve really improved in that department as they’re ranked near the middle of the league in pass defense. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are touchdown favorites and could be up in this game and there could be some running in the second half of the game. This one just has the feel of a 250 yard passing day for Roethlisberger, not a 300 yard performance.