PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-2
SEASON RESULTS:
9-7
Week 3 Recap:
We had almost forgotten how it feels to profit in the NFL after a long offseason, and a tough couple of first weeks. Our player props came through nicely though in week three and hopefully has us on a good path to success moving forward. With one of our plays on Broncos receiver Devaughn Vele getting canceled, we finished with a 5-2 mark for the weekend. We faded Bucs receiver Mike Evans to a pretty easy cover, and sweated out a close under with Deshaun Watson. We also got a nice Kyle Pitts sighting with a long pass for his cover, and double-dipped with James Cook on Monday Night Football, as we went under on his rushing total, and over on his receiving number. He cashed the receiving number on the first play from scrimmage, and never really threatened his rushing yards. Our two losses were close, but still losses. We lost by the hook with Devon Achane, as we went over 28.5 receiving yards, and he unfortunately finished with 28 on the day. We also backed CeeDee Lamb, but a couple of uncharacteristic drops left us a few yards shy there as well. Overall, it was a nice weekend that felt dialed in, and we’ll take it.
Week 4 Preview:
We’re loaded up with nine wagers for week four, and to be truthful there were at least three more we strongly considered. We’ll see how things play out, but the plays we have listed below all really line up nicely, with only one that is a little bit of a question mark due to workload. Overall, we’re mostly on the over train this week, as we’re fading one superstar, but backing a lot of other players with favorable matchups and or numbers. Week four will provide a great opportunity for the BetCrushers to build a solid foundation, if things go the way we need them to. As always, best of luck with your wagers!
Our Picks:
C.J. Stroud – Over 266.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The Houston Texans are coming off of a surprising beating at the hands of the Vikings a week ago, and look to take some revenge on familiar rival Jacksonville at home. The Jaguars boast some big name talent, which gives them an aura of being a good football team. The reality is, this may be one of the worst teams in the league at this point in time. Some of that has to do with a slew of early season injuries, which they’ll battle again this week being without some key players on both sides of the ball. On defense, they’ve been good at slowing down the run, but their pass defense has been absolutely atrocious. They can’t generate a consistent pass rush, with Travon Walker being a huge disappointment, and injuries in their secondary have them sorely lacking talent there. Without top corner Tyson Campbell, Nico Collins should be set up for a big game, and Stefon Diggs is starting to develop a connection with quarterback C.J. Stroud as well. Add in the fact the Jaguars have not been able to contain running backs as receivers, and the Texans should be able to throw the ball all over the field. Because C.J. Stroud has gotten off to a bit of a mild start this season, this number has trickled down a bit from where it would have been to begin the year. This should be a get right game for both Stroud and the Texans. We’ll take an over here.
Breece Hall – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Breece Hall is not necessarily the sole focal point of the New York Jets defense right now, as Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot of players involved on the offense. That’s ultimately going to help Hall throughout the season, as teams cannot entirely key in on him as they did a year ago. Sunday he has a matchup against the Denver Broncos in a game that could get ugly, with the Jets as heavy favorites. If it does that could lead to a lot of second half running for New York. Hall is a very appealing play in this matchup though for a couple of other reasons. First, he’s faced the Broncos twice in his career, and absolutely shredded them in both matchups. (The first was actually when he suffered his knee injury after a long run). Secondly, the Broncos have been able to clamp down opposing number one wideouts behind Patrick Surtain in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets best way to attack Denver will be on th ground, and Hall should have a third straight strong performance against the Broncos. We’re counting on it.
Andy Dalton – Over 226.5 Yards Passing (-115)
We definitely weren’t planning to back Andy Dalton in week four of the 2024 NFL season, but here we are in a revenge game for the Red Rifle. Dalton came in an absolutely energized a Carolina team that desperately needed some good vibes and a win. He’ll make his second start against the team he came up with, that is even more desperate at this point to avoid an 0-4 start and essentially ending their season in the first quarter of the year. The Panthers figured to have a better offense this year with new weapons and and an offensive minded throwing coach. While it didn’t happen with Bryce Young, it happened quickly with the veteran Dalton. Now he gets to face a defense that was just embarrassed by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati has no pass rush outside of Trey Hendrickson, and their secondary has struggled mightily. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is one of the weaker units in the league, which means the Bengals should get some points on the board when they’ve got the football. All of that adds up to Dalton throwing a lot, and with a total in the low 200’s, we’ll take a shot at another over.
Jayden Daniels – Over 212.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The Washington Commanders have been a dumpster fire organization for a while, but there is some good news on the horizon. They seem to have landed the next superstar quarterback in Jayden Daniels. The rookie was electric in his national debut, and will look to follow up that performance against the Arizona Cardinals in a game where fireworks are expected. Daniels has increased his passing yardage in each game going from 184 to 226 to 254, respectfully. His total definitely seems too low, at a manageable 212.5 yards against a Cardinals defense that isn’t particularly great. Daniels is always a threat to run, and Brian Robinson, Jr. has had a nice start to the year, but this number just seems way off. Or maybe more accurately, it seems like it’s made for a “traditional” rookie quarterback. Much like C.J. Stroud a season ago, Daniels is an outlier, and unlike fellow rookies Bo Nix and Caleb Williams, he’s already playing at a high level. This is a matchup play and a number play as both lend themselves to another QB over for Daniels in week four.
Josh Allen – Over 231.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been on fire to start the season as he’s the early favorite for MVP after the team’s hot 3-0 start. He’ll have his toughest assignment to date as he takes to the road to face a Baltimore Ravens team looking to string together their second win of the season. When you dig into this matchup a little deeper though, it’s the Bills that have the tough assignment as a whole, not necessarily Josh Allen. The Bills defense will have to figure out how to contain Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson while minus three very important pieces to their unit, and James Cook will need to find some room to run against what has been the league’s top rushing defense through three games. Where the Ravens haven’t been great, is defending the pass. Their pass rush has been mediocre, and their secondary has struggled, ranking dead last in the league. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been very strategic on how he’s attacked opponents, running the ball heavy against weaker run defenses, and targeting through the air against the Jaguars, who like the Ravens are good against the run, and not against the pass. Allen hasn’t had to dropback and throw a ton in their first few games, but he should be throwing for four quarters in this one. If Cook and the running game can’t get moving, he should be able to surpass this relatively low number.
Aaron Jones – Over 59.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Another revenge game on the slate Sunday is Aaron Jones heading back to Lambeau to face his former teammates in Green Bay. Jones has played well thus far for the surprising Vikings, and even though Ty Chandler gets some run in the Minnesota backfield, he’s definitely RB1. He’s managed to run well even against teams that are solid at slowing down the rush. Fortunately for Jones, the Packers are not necessarily a team that is great at slowing down the rush. In fact, over the past few seasons, they’ve consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in that category. This game is shaping up to potentially be not only an important divisional matchup, but a bit of a throwback game. To be honest, this is a situation where you could look at an alternate rushing line for Jones, or potentially laddering his yardage, as a 100 yard game is not out of the question. We’ll go ahead and play his o/u number here and hope he can surpass it with plenty of time left in the contest.
Bijan Robinson – Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Fading such an explosive and talented player like Bijan Robinson is always a little risky. He’s the type of player that can take it 70 yards on any given run, which can blowup and under before halftime. We’re picking a spot to fade the star here however, as the Falcons prepare to do battle against the New Orleans Saints. It’s not a bad matchup on paper for Robinson, as the Saints have been average, at best, at stopping the run. There are a couple things to note however heading into this game. For starters, Robinson is nursing a shoulder injury, and while he is cleared to play, he himself has stated he isn’t 100%. More importantly, the Falcons, who build their offense around their line, will be without two starting linemen, which is a really big deal. When you add in the fact Robinson has only topped his total in one of the three games this year, and that against the Saints he’s been more of a weapon as a receiver, and this seems like a good fade spot. He very well could make us look bad with this wager, but we’ll take a chance with it.
Roschon Johnson – Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This bet on Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is definitely a high risk, high reward type of play. Meaning, he’s either going to clear this mark easily, or we’re going to be yelling at the TV because D’Andre Swift is hogging all the carries in this game. The Bears came out this week and publicly stated they want to give Johnson some more work to see what he can do as more of a featured role after Swift’s slow start. If this holds true, Johnson has a very low bar to cross at just 30.5 rushing yards. Chicago has been a much better team at home, and they have a winnable game against a hurting Los Angeles Rams squad. Even more appealing is the fact the Rams are giving up over 5 yards per carry to opposing teams, ranking 30th in the league. This cap is pretty simple, as long as D’Andre Swift doesn’t get all of the work, Johnson is going to run hard and run through this mark.
Najee Harris – Over 80.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)
Najee Harris is putting together a “Najee Harris-like” campaign so far this year. He’s getting a chunk of carries, and consistently rattling off four yard runs. That’s good enough for this Steelers offense, and he’ll look to keep that up against the Colts as the Steelers look to somehow get off to a 4-0 start to their season. The Colts tightened up a bit with their run defense, after getting shredded to start the season, and they now will take aim at Harris in what should be a physical contest. When we say they’ll take aim at Harris, we really mean that, as backup running back Jaylen Warren looks as though he’ll miss this contest. That means even more work for veteran back, in what should be a smashmouth type of game. Rather than playing the rushing total for Harris, we’ll play his rushing and receiving, as he’ll likely absorb the receiving yards out of the backfield that would have otherwise gone to Warren. Harris has ended up just shy of this metric in all of the first three games, but that was with yielding some work to Warren. As mentioned, Harris isn’t the type of player to break off long runs, so don’t expect for this over to cash early. If it’s going to get there, it’ll probably take all four quarters.
