PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-2
SEASON RESULTS:
4-5
Week 2 Recap:
Based on how the 2024 NFL season has started out, we’re not going to complain about our 3-2 player prop weekend. Despite the very modest profit there, we’re still climbing out of our week one hole, and now sit at 4-5 on the season heading into week three. Overall, the picks were sound and we’ll review them briefly here. We loved Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yardage total over, and Pacheco got off to a hot start running through a suspect Cincinnati rush defense. Fortunately, Pacheco hit his mark in the third quarter, because he missed half of the fourth quarter after a fibula injury that will now sideline him for a month or two. The same couldn’t be said for Joe Mixon. The Bears game plan was to actually slow down the running attack for the Texans, which honestly through us for a bit of a curveball. As a result, Mixon was mostly bottled up. He still would have had a chance to eclipse his total, but he too injured an ankle in the third quarter. By essentially not playing the final 18 minutes of the contest, he was never able to threaten his total for a loss. If you read our take on J.K. Dobbins, you know we loved his possibility of eclipsing 100 yards for the second straight week, and he did that and then some. He broke some long runs early and cruised to an early cover with his prop. The other Chiefs play we had was the under on Patrick Mahomes passing yards. We figured that one would be a sweat, however it was actually a pretty easy cover when it was all said and done. Mahomes threw for his lowest yardage total in a game that he started and completed as the Chiefs were run dependent, and never really got anything going through the air. We rolled the dice with a rare prop bet on the Giants Wan’Dale Robinson as we figured the Giants would throw the ball successfully against the Commanders. They actually did a decent job with that, the problem was it was entirely directed to rookie Malik Nabers. Robinson needed to grab four passes to hit his over and only was able to manage two receptions. Go figure, the week we play him, he gets the fewest targets he’s had in the last dozen games. All said and done, we’ll take a small winning weekend and hope we can build on the success in the upcoming weeks.
Week 3 Preview:
Injuries are starting to mount across the league which makes the selection process for player props a little more intriguing. Is it better to stick with the “known” entities and try to find some matchup value there? Or are their spots where grabbing someone stepping in could offer instant value if they’re in the right situation? One thing is for sure, passing is down after a couple of weeks and the books are trying to tempt bettors into some quarterback overs with some pretty low bars to clear. Rather than try to navigate that, we’re focused on some running backs and receivers and are fading more than we’re backing this weekend. We’ve got the WR1 and a wide receiver you may have never even heard of on our slate for Sunday. We’re going all in and out with a Monday Night Football running back double-dip. Eight wagers in total and we had about half a dozen more under consideration. We’ll stick with what we’ve got here for our posted plays and hope for a successful week number three.
Our Picks:
Mike Evans – Under 66.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans has been one of the most consistent receivers in the history of the league. Chances are he’s going to work his way to yet another 1,000 yard season again in 2024 if he can stay healthy, playing with a confident quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Evans started the season strong with a pair of touchdowns in the opener, but his yardage totals through two games are 61 and 42 yards, respectively. Evans still has big play potential, so it’s not impossible for him to get deep over the top. However, that could prove tough in this game against the Broncos as Evans is going to be seeing a lot of cornerback Patrick Surtain II. He’ll find his way to some targets and receptions, but with that matchup, unless he can break a long one, it will be tough for him to get over this total. It’s also worth noting the Buccaneers are near touchdown favorites, and could spend much of the second half trying to shorten the game a bit. We’ll risk one of the league’s best making us look bad and fade him here against Denver.
Devon Achane – Over 28.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Dolphins begin their stretch of games playing without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as Skylar Thompson will be leading the charge for Miami. It’s a tall task to go into Seattle against one of the better secondaries on the road, but at least he has some weapons with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The two speedy wideouts will draw a lot of attention as always, which means Achane becomes defacto receiver number three for the team. The equally speedy Achane should find some success on the ground, but he’ll find as much if not more success through the air. In the first two games of the season he caught 7 passes in each and racked up 69 and 76 yards, respectfully. Mike McDaniel will want to limit how aggressive he needs to be early with Thompson, which means we should see a lot of screens, and a new quarterbacks best friend, the check down pass. With Raheem Mostert ruled out for the second consecutive week, Mostert will see a heavier snap percentage again. This number would be way too low even if Achane wasn’t the type of player that could topple it with one reception. Look for another game where the back sees half a dozen targets or so, and he should cruise past this number. If you’re feeling adventurous and believe Achane could top 70 yards again, you can find that for +900 on Draftkings.
Deshaun Watson – Under 200.5 Yards Passing (-115)
There was a tweet put out a week or so ago that read something along the lines of “some day they need to do a s study on the downfall of Deshaun Watson as an NFL quarterback”. That’s about all that needs to be said about fading him in their game against the Giants on Sunday. Watson now feels like a blind fade that you will hit 70% of the time, and that’s the way we’re approaching this bet. He’s yet to top 200 yards receiving this season, and still without his favorite target in tight end David Njoku, he should struggle to get to that mark again. Yes, it’s true the Giants do not have a good defense, but look for the Browns to try to establish the run with Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman in this game. If the Browns defense handles business against the Giants offense, which they should, the Browns aren’t going to ask Watson to do a whole lot. This seems like another one of those quarterback yardage bets where unless a back or receiver take a screen for 80 yards, this one is going to stay under again. We’ll keep fading Watson until he proves he can be half of the player he used to be.
Kyle Pitts – Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts continues to be one of the more disappointing players in terms of production versus talent through a pair of games in 2024 with just 46 total yards in those contests. Part of that could be the defenses they were playing, or perhaps the fact new quarterback Kirk Cousins hasn’t quite looked comfortable yet in Atlanta. Well, until the final drive last week which may spearhead this passing attack in Atlanta, and specifically Pitts. The Falcons will try to keep that momentum going against a tough Chiefs defense in a game they are currently field goal underdogs in. The good news for Pitts and the Falcons would be the Chiefs have been absolutely horrible at stopping opposing tight ends. In fact, depending on what metrics you want to use, they essentially rank dead last at 32nd. It could be the type of pressure schemes that Steve Spagnuolo uses, or the fact their not elite at the safety position, but whatever it is, tight ends seem to feast against KC. If the Chiefs are focused on taking away Bijan Robinson, and Trent McDuffie sees a lot of Drake London, Pitts should have some room to work in this matchup. This number may seem a little high considering he’s averaged just 23 yards in the first two games, but if Pitts is ever going to have one of those dominant type performances, it will be this week. We’ll take a chance the matchup works out in his and our betting favor.
CeeDee Lamb – Over 82.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
By the lofty expectations for Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb had entering the season, you could say it’s been a mediocre start for the Dallas star. That tells you just how good and how productive he is as a player, with numbers most receivers would love to have. Sunday could be the best opportunity for Lamb to really explode so far in their interconference showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. Lamb is always a threat to hit 100 yards, so 82.5 yards is nothing crazy, even as a pretty high number. The reason Lamb could be in for a big Sunday is because the Ravens are not as deep in their secondary as they have been in previous seasons. Right now, Baltimore looks like a team that can be physical and shut down the run, but they’ve had some issues covering receivers. The Cowboys can’t run it too well to begin with, so with the Ravens likely to shut that down, Dak Prescott is going to have to throw the ball a lot. He’ll spread it around to several players, but the majority of the looks are always going to go in CeeDee’s direction, especially when he wins his individual matchups. He should see double digit targets if this game is close, and with a career average of over 13 yards per catch, he can top this number with a solid performance. It never feels terrible backing good players, and that’s what we’ll do here.
Devaughn Vele – Over 20.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
One of the surprises of the opening week of the season was Denver Bronco rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele. If you aren’t too familiar with the youngster, don’t feel bad, you’re certainly not alone. In reality, despite being a rookie, Vele is not really a youngster as he entered the league at 26 years old. That experience and maturity makes him slightly different than your average rookie player. He does however seem to have some of that rookie chemistry with quarterback Bo Nix, who looked his direction 8 times in that week one matchup against the Seahawks. In those 8 targets, Vele snagged all 8, and was really the security blanket for Nix as the Seahawks were buttoning up Courtland Sutton. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a similar game plan, and with Vele back in the lineup after missing last week, expect more targets from his fellow rookie QB. Vele lined up primarily in the slot in week one, and we figure he’ll see a lot of time there again versus Tampa. That’s good news because the Buccaneers have gotten shredded up by slot receivers in their first two games of the year. It’s also highly possible the Broncos will be trailing in this game as they’re pretty hefty underdogs on the road. If they get into a heavy passing mode, getting to 21 yards for a player that will be on the field more a large percentage of the snaps is a really low bar to clear. Let’s see if our “no-name” play can get to the pay window.
James Cook – Over 18.5 Yards Receiving / Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
In one of two Monday Night Football showdowns, the Buffalo Bills will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in two teams who have started the season in opposite fashion. With a potpourri wide receiver room, the Bills have morphed into a power running football team, and James Cook does the bulk of the work. He’ll undoubtedly get some opportunities to continue his good start to the year against a Jaguars defense that is pretty stout against the run. Through a pair of games, the Jags are allowing under 4 yards per carry to opposing runners, and are forcing teams to throw the ball against them. In their last two meetings, the Jags defense has really bullied the Bills offensive line and really slowed down the running game. In fact, last year in this matchup, Cook had just 4 carries for -5 yards. We may see some more of that in this game, which means Josh Allen is going to have to throw the ball a bit more than he has throughout the first two weeks. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have taken very few shots down the field as they’ve run a lot of short screens, swing passes and check downs. With a good edge rush that has rattled Allen in the past, Jacksonville could be vulnerable to giving up those check down throws to Cook. We’re doubling up here going under on his rushing yardage, but expecting a solid performance on his receiving yards.
