PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-1
SEASON RESULTS:
56-53
Week 17 Recap:
Two up and one down in week 17 inching us closer to profit on the year with our NFL Prop Corner wagers. We got off to a very fast start with both Bucky Irving and Puka Nacua, who were featured heavily and putting up good performances for their respective teams on the way to a couple of covers. Our loss was never really close, as Terry McLaurin had a little bit of an inexplicable dud against the Falcons secondary. A.J. Terrell looked like the high-priced corner he is, locking down McLaurin all game, as the Falcons had pressure on Jayden Daniels throughout the contest.
Week 18 Preview:
Week 18 is an extremely interesting weekend for player props. There are teams playing for nothing, and giving younger players some extra time on the field. There are guys with incentives that can impact their usage and performance. If you’ve been following our Prop Corner for the second half of the season, you’ll notice some familiar names we’ve been playing, who weren’t even on our radar a couple of months ago. Included in this, we have a player we’re backing for his fourth game in a row, something that we’ve never done before. It’s especially wild as his yardage total keeps ballooning each week. No quarterbacks on our slate with the weather turning cold, so even more of a focus on the ground games. We’re going to keep it all positive and just back some guys that have a lot to play for with seven total wagers all to the over. Although we still have the playoffs looming, the realization this is the final regular season full week of football is a sobering conclusion. Let’s finish strong!
Our Picks:
Mike Gesicki – Over 29.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
There’s an old saying in the fantasy football world that states “don’t chase the points”. This means when a player who isn’t a consistent star balls out, don’t expect a repeat performance a week later. We’re not abiding by that rule with Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki, who is coming off of a game that saw him targeted 12 times, and collecting 10 catches for 86 yards. Are we expecting that type of productivity again on Saturday against the Steelers? Absolutely not, but there should be enough to back the tall receiver at just 29.5 yards. The Steelers defense has been struggling over the last four weeks, and they really haven’t been great covering opposing tight ends all season. With running back Chase Brown questionable to play, the short and intermediate passing game could fall even more on the shoulders of Gesicki and the tight ends. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will of course get the bulk of the looks from quarterback Joe Burrow, but there should be enough food left for Gesicki to eat in a must-win game for the Bengals. We’ll chase the points here and see if Gesicki is involved in the offense again.
Davante Adams – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)
Sunday will likely be the last time we see Davante Adams as a New York Jet, and probably his final time catching passing from Aaron Rodgers. While their experiment in New York didn’t translate to wins on the field, after a slow first few weeks in the offense, Adams did show flashes of what has made him an All-Pro in the past. He had a bit of an “off” week as did the entire Jets team against the Bills, but he still managed to reel in five catches in a tough performance. Without much to play for, it’s possible the Jets empty the bench, but what seems more practical is Rodgers and Adams air it out one last time re-living some of the magic they shared in Green Bay for all of those fun seasons. Adams has eclipsed the 5.5 reception mark he’s slotted for here in six of the last eight games, and the two games he missed he secured five catches. He’ll face the Dolphins in a game with zero pressure, which generally makes most players thrive. Speaking of the Dolphins, when they played a month ago, Adams grabbed nine passes and went over the 100 yard mark. With cold weather expected, this could be more of a short-passing type of game, which is why we’re opting for his receptions over his yardage total. Adams should see plenty of targets with a very strong chance to go over his total.
Malik Nabers – Over 6.5 Yards Receptions (-115)
If we’re going to talk about catching a lot of passes, let’s take a look at Giants rookie wideout Malik Nabers, who enters Sunday’s ballgame against the Eagles with 104 catches. He is setting and approaching some rookie milestones, and should be facing some backups in the Eagles secondary, as they’ve clinched their playoff seed already. Nabers has been a target machine all season, but that number has only increased with Drew Lock as the starter, who will be getting the nod again in their finale. The formula here is really pretty simple. Nabers averages over 7 catches per game. He’s facing some backup players in a meaningless game. And he has a shot at putting up some historical type marks. Add those three things together and that feels like enough for him to hit this total on Sunday.
Bucky Irving – Over 86.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
If you weren’t sure, Bucky Irving is our first ever prop player we’re playing for a fourth consecutive week. (He’s 2-1 in the three bets previously). Go beyond the nice stats he’s had, and you’ll see his advanced metrics are as solid as any running back in the league. The rookie is fast, powerful and has really good vision for such a young player. Irving is getting better and better as the year goes on, and is averaging a very impressive 5.5 yards per carry. The Buccaneers want to lock in their playoff spot and divisional crown on Sunday, and they have the benefit of taking on a Saints team that is missing most of their top players. The Saints defense has struggled all season, and in the second half of the year, have been absolutely terrible at stopping the run. Tampa is a near two touchdown favorite, and although they’ll be forcing the ball to Mike Evans a bit for some incentive purposes, you know Todd Bowles is going to grind out some yardage on the ground with Irving. A week ago, Irving had over 80 yards in the first half on the way to another 100 yard day. This should be a similar performance as the Bucs punch their ticket to a home playoff game with a win.
Rico Dowdle – Over 61.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
During the first half of the season it appeared Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle just wasn’t going to be a starting level player in the league. Fast forward to November, and Dowdle has been as good as any back in either conference after a string of big performances. Included in his last five outings are four 100 yard performances on the ground. That recent combination of production makes his total of just 61.5 yards against the Washington Commanders pretty juicy just based on trend alone. The other piece of this trend to note is Dowdle also hit the Commanders for 86 yards in their first meeting of the season. The Commanders have struggled stopping the run all season, allowing over 4.8 yards per carry to opposing teams. With Dowdle averaging over 20 carries per game over the last six contests, this is a threshold he should absolutely be able to clear as the Cowboys wind down their season. In a year they’d like to forget, Dowdle has been one of the bright spots to finish the campaign.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
David Montgomery is a hard runner and likeable player so you hate to see him on the shelf for this Lions run. However, getting to see more Jahmyr Gibbs is never a bad thing. The 2nd year runner is electric, and is putting up big numbers both with Montgomery sharing some time, and without him. The regular season will come to a close on Sunday Night Football with the game of the week as the Lions try to hold serve against the Vikings for first place in the NFC North. Gibbs will be featured as usual, and should have a nice day running the football. We decided to take his receiving yardage prop, rather than his rushing prop though. For starters, the Vikings are pretty good against the run, although we do still expect Gibbs to have some success here. But really this is more about what we see as a wide open shoot-out style game script where both teams will probably be passing a lot. Gibbs is one of the top pass catching backs in the league, and the Lions are not afraid to draw up plays to try to get him the ball in space. Since the injury to Montgomery, Gibbs is averaging 5.5 targets per game and has gone for 80, 45 and 46 yards receiving, respectively. With the Vikings blitz heavy scheme, he should see some check down tosses as well as the designed plays to feature him. In their first match this season, Gibbs tallied 44 yards through the air, and that was with a lesser snap share. He may or may not get there, but we have zero hesitation backing Gibbs, or really most of the skill players in what should be a fun and high-scoring football game.
Jordan Addison – Over 62.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We said we didn’t have a problem backing other players in the Vikings and Lions game and we meant it. Feel free to take a swing with Justin Jefferson, or whoever else you’d like, and there’s a good chance you’ll end up a winner. We’re going to go with his running mate at receiver in Jordan Addison. The Lions defense is wounded pretty badly, yet defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is still trying to play man coverage. His young corners have struggled, and now they have to keep a close eye on Justin Jefferson. A week ago, the Lions were watching the Niners top targets, and rookie Ricky Pearsall exploded with a huge game. Addison should fill that Ricky Pearsall role on Sunday and have some really favorable matchups throughout the game. He’s one of the better receivers in the league versus man coverage, having his best games of the season playing primarily against man-to-man schemes. Earlier this year he put up 66 yards against this Lions defense, when they were a lot healthier across the board on defense. There should be plenty of opportunities to go around for a lot of the skill players, but we like Addison for an official play on Sunday Night Football.
