PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-1
SEASON RESULTS:
56-39
Week 14 Recap:
A perfect 7-0 sweep would have been nice, and was pretty close to happening, but following up a pair of good weekends with a 6-1 tally is certainly worth celebrating. We won the two-fer in the Texans game as Brevin Jordan was again filling the role of the absent receivers and tight end Dalton Schultz. On the opposite side, Nico Collins under was a winner early as he left the game in the first quarter with an injury. The Christian McCaffrey rushing total over was perhaps the most enjoyable cash as he ripped an 82 yard run on his first carry, cashing before Red Zone could even get to that game. Matthew Stafford played a strong game against the very good Ravens defense, and cruised way beyond his low yardage number, even before they went into overtime. Gerald Everett fortunately got some early catches and was able to make his number before quarterback Justin Herbert was lost to injury. On Monday Night we had Saquon Barkley’s rushing total over, which was the most fortunate cover of the prop bets on the weekend. Barkley was mostly stymied for the first three quarters of the game, amassing just over 20 yards rushing. In the fourth quarter he was able to break off a few nice runs and managed to get over 80 yards somehow. The single loss was with Saints running back Alvin Kamara. He had a favorable matchup against the Panthers, and needing only 9 yards with over 10:00 minutes left in the fourth quarter and a comfortable lead, it looked like it would be a cover, but Kamara only got one more touch the rest of the way and fell a few yards shy.
Week 15 Preview:
With college football’s biggest games tabled for the next couple of weeks we get NFL spread out with some additional Saturday action. As we mentioned last week, weather becomes more of a factor in any handicapping as December brings in some frigid temperatures and often nasty weather for much of the country. We started early with the Lions running backs in the Saturday game (on X), and we’ve got seven more player props for Sunday. We’re keyed in on some capable backups, and have more quarterbacks than we’ve had in the past. Included in that is fading one of the most productive QBS in the entire league. Let’s see if we can’t stay hot with Prop Corner in week fifteen.
Our Picks:
Tua Tagovailoa – Under 229.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Anytime you’re fading the most explosive offense in the league there is a chance at not only a loss, but an embarrassing one at that. We can’t be afraid to trust what we’re putting together, even if it has the chance to implode. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are under some pressure in their matchup against the Jets after blowing a win against the Titans just a week ago. You don’t want to make too much out of one regular season game, but Tua’s future could be partially determined by what happens in this matchup with the Jets. If Tagovailoa can rise to the occasion, he may cement himself as the franchise player and MVP candidate many believe he factually is. Should he struggle, and the team fail, is it possible it could impact a potential long-term contract extension? Let’s put all of that aside for the time and focus on this specific game against the Jets. Let’s put the obvious out there to start the breakdown here: If Tyreek Hill does not play in this game, the odds of Tagovailoa going over his yardage total go drastically down. Hill looks 50-50 so we’ll have to wait and see, however we’re still fading his quarterback even if he plays. The Jets defense is of course pretty dominant, and that’s particularly true against the pass. If any team can lock up the Dolphins talented receivers it’s the secondary of the New York Jets. In a cold weather game, where Tua has generally not played great, the Dolphins should be featuring their running backs more than taking shots down the field. Speaking of those running backs, the Jets will need to contain them in the passing game for this prop under to hit. Could Tua go for 350 and 4 TDs, absolutely… We’re just banking on it going the other direction in New York.
James Cook – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)
Bills running back James Cook is quietly putting together a really nice season that has him in the top ten in rushing yards and total rushing and receiving yards. He’ll take on one of the toughest defenses in the league when the Bills face the Dallas Cowboys in what is essentially a playoff game for them. Backing a player against a stout defense is risky, but there are a few reasons to like Cook in this game with his combined rushing and receiving yardage. For starters, he’s been hot of late, going over 100 yards in his last 4 games as interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady has made a concerted effort to get Cook the ball more. That especially holds true in the passing game, where his receiving numbers have skyrocketed since Brady took over three weeks ago. With the Cowboys ability to bring heavy pressure, Allen will need to check the ball down, and Brady will want Cook involved in the short passing game. In terms of running the ball, the Bills interior gets a break as the Cowboys top interior run stuffer Johnathan Hankins will not be playing in this game. That means we’ll see a lot more of rookie Mazi Smith, who is ranked 2nd from last in all qualifying players at his run-stopping grade. What may have been a tough running matchup, could end up favorably with that key injury. Lastly, make what you want out of this trend, but Cook has been better in home games this year as opposed to on the road. (Last week was an exception in KC). Altogether, Cook should have a shot to hit the 100 total yard mark again which gives a little cushion on getting over at his current number.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 85.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
One week ago we said to not overthink pounding the over with Christian McCaffrey in strong matchups in games the Niners should win. He rewarded us on the first carry of the game with an easy cover. We’re not expecting that kind of efficiency against the Cardinals, but we are planning to not overthink things again, and ride McCaffrey to another cover. His total this week is only 4 yards more than a week ago, and you could argue the matchup may even be better. The Cardinals defense is poor across the board, and they are not great at stopping powerful running backs. As 12+ point favorites, the 49ers should be in pretty good shape throughout the game to run the ball. That’s it. For a reason. We’re on the McCaffrey wagon again, let’s see if it can stay hot!
Ezekiel Elliott – Over 19.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
There may still be a little gas in the tank for Patriots running Ezekiel Elliott, and he’s been proving that in the month of December. With Rhamondre Stevenson currently on the shelf, Zeke is the top weapon on the Patriots offense, as well as the veteran leader. The Pats are home underdogs against a Chiefs team that is clearly not in a great mood after their tough loss to the Bills last weekend. New England was able to get their offense on track, and a big part of that was the strong play of Ezekiel Elliott. Facing a very good Chiefs defense Elliott is more likely to be impactful as a receiver as opposed to a runner. With Kansas City pressuring Bailey Zappe, he’ll need to get the ball out quickly. Elliot is averaging almost 40 yards receiving per game over the last month of the season, and New England could be trailing in the game script. With a total of just 19.5 yards and ample opportunities, this is one of our favorite bets of the NFL weekend.
Joe Flacco – Over 232.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Who had Joe Flacco overs on their bingo card to start the 2023 NFL season? Yeah, we didn’t either. The Browns are in the thick of the playoff hunt, and they’ll be relying on Flacco down the stretch to steer them to a playoff spot. In his first two games as the starting quarterback he’s thrown for 254 and 311 yards, respectively. His yardage total is resting at a manageable 232.5 yards when he faces the Bears at home in the early window on Sunday. The Bears, somewhat surprisingly have been one of the toughest defenses in the league over the last six weeks of the season. With an improved pass rush and healthy secondary, it won’t be easy for Flacco, but he should be able to best this mark because the Browns won’t run the ball well. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have not been overly productive, and the Bears run defense is as tough as they come. Cleveland will need to throw to move the ball, and as a result Flacco should be able to continue his rapport with David Njoku and others as the Browns try to grab a much needed home win.
Isaiah Likely – Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson likes throwing to the tight end position as much as any quarterback in the league. Even after losing Pro Bowler Mark Andrews, he’s still looking in that direction, and Isaiah Likely is the main beneficiary of those looks having gotten 6.5 targets and averaging 61 yards the last two weeks. This week the Ravens will be playing in Jacksonville against a defense that has been absolutely atrocious at stopping the pass. The Ravens will certainly give the running game a shot, but they’ll have more success throwing the football. Jaguars starting safety Andre Cisco will not be active for the contest, and he often draws assignments against opposing tight ends. Likely could end up as one of the top receivers in the entire game when it’s all wrapped up, so we’ll take a shot with him to get over the 32.5 number.
Geno Smith – Over 242.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Geno Smith played one of his better games last week against the Cowboys, yet it wasn’t enough to get the Seahawks back into the win column. Things aren’t much easier this week with the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town and also in need of an important win. The Eagles remain one of the better run stopping defenses in the league, but they have just not been able to stop opposing passers. Their pass rush has been up and down, and when they’re not getting pressure, the secondary has not been able to hold up. That secondary will also be missing cornerback Darius Slay, Jr., making them already thinner without the veteran and slot corner Avonte Maddox. The Seahawks are not a team you want to be down corners against when D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can all make plays across the field. The Eagles pass defense ranks 27th in the league, and early in the season they had some nice matchups. We’re not expecting the Seahawks to run the ball well even with the return of Kenneth Walker III, so yardage will need to come through the air. When he’s needed to throw, Smith has had several 300 yard games this season, so in a primetime home tilt, we think he can get to 250. Let’s see if he writes back?
