PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-1
SEASON RESULTS:
50-38
Week 13 Recap:
We joked that we didn’t play all of the player props a week ago we liked, and of course we should have. As it stands, it was still a productive Sunday going 3-1 to improve our mark on the season. We got off to a fast start with our selection of Texans backup tight end Brevin Jordan. On the team’s second series he caught a pass and scampered 24 yards hitting his mark sweat-free. There were some rain delays in Pittsburgh, but as we suspected Najee Harris was able to get enough totes to go over his rushing yards without too much trouble. Our loss of the early window came in Tennessee as we were backing Zack Moss with his combined yardage. The read was fine, as Moss touched the ball over 20 times, he simply couldn’t get any big runs or receptions in against a tough Titans interior. Our late bet of the day was Christian McCaffrey’s receiving yardage. It wasn’t looking great after the first half, but with a player like McCaffrey, it only takes one sometimes, and that’s exactly what happened when he grabbed a 32 yard pass in the third quarter.
Week 14 Preview:
You’ll notice some familiar faces on our docket this week as we’re trying to keep the winners winning. It’s a bit of a throwback week as well as you’ll notice some names who were hot circa 2020, but in line for some nice performances. It all adds up to a total of seven wagers, fading one player with a tough matchup, and backing some old veterans and a couple of tight ends. Lots to consider with not only playoff implications, but also weather and game scripts when you get to the later part of the season. Let’s have a great weekend!
Our Picks:
Brevin Jordan – Over 29.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We jumped on the Brevin Jordan play a week ago and he cashed earlier than anyone, so why not give him another opportunity this week? After a nice performance in his first start in the absence of Dalton Schultz, the young tight end played well. It’ll be a little trickier this weekend as not only does his matchup get a little tougher, but he may have to contend with some weather as well. Rain and wind are expected in New Jersey, and the Jets boast one of the top defenses in the league. To make things even a little more interesting, his yardage total also jumped up a bit after his nice performance last week. There’s a pretty simple reason we’re backing Jordan again, and that’s because the offense has to come from somewhere for the Texans. Tank Dell was unfortunately lost for the season, and Nico Collins is going to see a lot of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, making for some rough sledding. That leaves Jordan as a potential outlet for quarterback C.J. Stroud when the Texans are throwing the ball. Jordan should see several targets, and with his speed and athleticism, he can rack up some yards quickly if the ball is in his hands. Let’s see if he can make it two solid weeks in a row on the field, and two deposits into our account on his yardage overs.
Nico Collins – Under 69.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
You already noticed in our breakdown of Brevin Jordan how we felt about the prospects for wide receiver Nico Collins versus the Jets. On the one hand, Collins is clearly WR1 with Tank Dell on the shelf, which should normally benefit him. In this game though, that could be a big problem. Without Dell opposite him, the Jets should be able to lock down Collins with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Collins lines up primarily on the outside, so unless the Texans try to get him into the slot, it will be tough for him to get separation against the previously named corner tandem. We also mentioned the weather above, which could absolutely impact the possibility for the deep ball. Without making a lengthy reception, it feels almost impossible that Collins would grind his way over this total. Lastly, game script plays a part here as the Texans offense will be playing an opponent that has their own issues moving the ball and putting points up. In simple terms, the Texans most likely won’t be in a situation where they absolutely have to throw the football. Collins is a good player, this is just not the week to back the wideout.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 81.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
For starters, if you back Christian McCaffrey on a weekly basis, you’re going to win more than you’re going to lose. That’s just icing on the cake as it’s still really about picking the right spots, and this weekend should be one of those spots to take his rushing total. The 49ers will deliver the knockout blow in the NFC West if they defeat the Seahawks, and will still be in the running for the top spot in the conference. A week ago it was the Deebo Samuel show for this offense, but even with that, McCaffrey still nearly ran for 100 yards. The offense should go back to a more featured spot for McCaffrey at home, and he’ll look to eclipse 81 yards to cash this bet against a team he ran for 114 yards against while averaging 6 yards per carry just two weeks ago. If you want to rely on a track record, McCaffrey has topped 81 yards rushing in every game Trent Williams has been in the lineup, with the exception of two, and barely missed in one of those. After a strong start to the season stopping the run, the Seahawks have not been as great over the last month. Anyhow, how much analysis do you really need when backing Christian McCaffrey? Don’t overthink it.
Gerald Everett – Over 27.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
You may not need to overthink backing Christian McCaffrey, but you do need to think things through when you’re taking an over on Chargers tight end Gerald Everett. Here’s why we’re interested and betting on him this weekend after some thought and research. Everett has been more involved in the Chargers offense in recent weeks including back-to-back performances with over 43 yards and 4 receptions. A pair of solid games isn’t enough to get us to wager on a player, but when his opponent is flat out awful at defending opposing tight ends it’s worth a play. The Denver Broncos rank dead last in giving up yards to tight ends, and with the threats of Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, Everett should find some room in this matchup. This play is a polar opposite of backing a star, so let’s see if the handicapping works out in our favor.
Matthew Stafford – Over 197.5 Yards Passing (-115)
In sports betting, going against the grain can be a very effective strategy, and that’s what we’re looking to do with this bet. The Baltimore Ravens are the top ranked defense in DVOA and rank second against the pass in the entire league. That certainly won’t make things easy for Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense, but this is a case of a disrespectful number that simply needs to be played. Stafford is averaging nearly 260 yards passing per game and of course has two of the top receivers in the league at his disposal with Cooper Kupp and rookie Puka Nacua. The breakdown here isn’t pretty, as the Ravens should keep the Rams offense under wraps for the most part. This is just a situation where it feels like anytime it’s under 200 yards, you have to give Stafford a shot to best that mark. We’ll see if we end up regretting this, or if the Stafford disrespect here is real.
Alvin Kamara – Over 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We’re entering week fourteen of the NFL season and Saints running back Alvin Kamara has yet to notch a 100 yard rushing performance. Because Kamara hasn’t been an overly explosive and dominating player, he’s flying a bit under the radar. His 3.8 yards per carry is certainly not overly impressive, but he has been what you could consider a steady contributor week in and week out and averages about 15 carries per game. Sunday he’ll face a Carolina Panthers team that has been pretty good defending the pass, but not so great at stopping the run. Kamara figures to get a lot of touches, particularly with Taysom Hill entering the game potentially limited. The Panthers also struggle to score a lot, which means the Saints should be able to stay balanced all four quarters. The math here adds up favorably for Kamara as if he simply averages his normal carries and yardage, he’ll surpass his rushing mark. We’re looking at AK41 to have a better than average performance due to the opponent and game script, which should lead to a cover for this bet.
Saquon Barkley – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Saquon Barkley should have some rested legs coming off of his bye week and ready to take on the Green Bay Packers. Barkley’s rushing total for this game is set at 67.5 yards, a total he has had little trouble surpassing this season. He is coming off of his worst performance of the season with just 46 yards against the Patriots, but that’s a New England team that has become downright nasty stopping the run, and was solely focused on shutting Barkley down. The Packers on the other hand have allowed the second most rushing yards in the league, and struggle most with physical backs, something Barkley certainly is. With Tommy Devito starting again for the Giants, head coach Brian Daboll knows he needs to continue to lean on Barkley as much as possible. The good news for the Giants and Barkley is Devito has actually looked better after a really rough start to his career. That should keep the Giants both balanced, and in the game, allowing Barkley to run. The other factor working in Saquon’s favor is he’ll have his offensive line as healthy as its been all season in front of him blocking. In a rare showcase game for the Giants, Barkley should be a shining star in a game that doesn’t have a ton of flash at the skill positions. This could be a spot for Barkley’s second 100 yard game of the season, so at just 67.5 yards, there is a little margin for error.
