PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-4
SEASON RESULTS:
36-35
Week 12 Recap:
It was a wild week 12 with our player prop bets that ended up sporting a 3-4 win/loss record for the weekend. There were some close calls for sure, and while we can’t be pleased with a 3-4 record, we actually are pretty thankful that it wasn’t worse. Things started out solidly with Jonathan Taylor clamped up on the ground against the Lions, and it looked as thought Chuba Hubbard was also going to not make his mark. However, the Panthers went run heavy in the second half despite trailing, and Hubbard was able to narrowly get over making us 1-1 in the early slate. Things went a little south in the late games as we ended up just 1-3 here with a solid win with Jaxon Smith-Njigba going over his yardage total, but losing with Rachaad White, Javonte Williams, and Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey needed one more grab to make his reception total, but the Niners inexplicably didn’t start throwing to him until basically the 4th quarter of their loss to the Packers. Javonte Williams was the laugher of the bunch, as despite leading the team in carries, he finished with -2 yards rushing. Good to know we could have bet on ourselves and come closer. The fortunate break we got was on the Monday Night Football winner, as we were fading running back J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins was well on his way to beating his yardage total at the half, needing just 6 more yards, but at the end of the first half injured his knee and did not return. Fortunate, sure. But also one of the perks of playing unders with player props.
Week 13 Preview:
Hopefully you had a great Thanksgiving and a good start to your betting weekend. If you’re still looking for any ideas on player props for Sunday, we’ve got you covered here. We’ve got some players we’ve wagered on earlier in the season as well as a couple of new rising stars. Six bets in total, backing five players and fading one. Included are opponents facing off in the Rams and Saints game, and a pair of Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Time for some leftover food and leftover football on Sunday.
Our Picks:
Tony Pollard – Over 65.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Titans running back Tony Pollard is quietly racking up some pretty solid numbers in what’s been a not so great season for the team. The speedy Pollard is averaging 73 yards per game, and with the exception of a couple of dud performances against top run defenses, he’s routinely finding his way near the 100 yard mark each week. Sunday he’ll face a Commanders defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in run defense, allowing just under 5 yards per carry to opponents. After their fast start, Washington has come back to earth a bit on both sides of the football, meaning this game could and should stay somewhat close. The Titans don’t disguise the fact they want to orchestrate their offense through the run with Pollard. As long as this game is competitive, which it most likely should be, Pollard should get somewhere between 15 to 20 carries. With his speed and an offensive line that is built for run blocking, he’ll have a good shot at taking down this number against the Commanders.
Bucky Irving – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been rotating running backs all season long, but if you had to pick an RB1 in their stable at this point it’s got to be Bucky Irving. The young back has shown both the ability to get the tough yards in between the tackles, and make the more explosive plays on the edges. Irving has faced some of the top rush defenses in the league, including the Ravens, Lions, Eagles, and Chiefs, yet still is averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry on the season. When he’s faced weaker opponents he has absolutely feasted, and he’ll be facing one of the weaker defenses in the league in the Panthers on Sunday. In fact, the Panthers have given up more yards on the ground than any other team in the league. Some of this is because they are often trailing, which might be the case again as they enter the game as fairly large underdogs. Not only should Bucky Irving exceed his modest rushing total, this might be an opportunity to take a chance on an alternate line that’s even a little higher. Maybe a first career 100 yard day for the Buccaneer?
Nick Chubb – Under 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Running back Nick Chubb understandably has not looked like his typical self as he’s returned from major reconstructive knee surgery this season. In his first five games back, he’s averaging just 42 yards per game and barely 3 yards per carry. Those are certainly not numbers we are used to seeing from the former Pro Bowler, but it’s understandable. He’s still working back from that horrific injury, and the Browns offensive line is not quite as dominant as it has been the past handful of seasons, particularly at the tackle position. This week in prime time Chubb has a total set at 62.5 yards, which just seems entirely too high, considering his best game back was 59 yards, which it took him 20 carries to get to. His opponent this week is a Bronco defense that has been pretty stingy against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to opponents. Sure, some day Chubb will soar past a yardage total of 62.5 yards, but he hasn’t done it yet this year, and this doesn’t seem like the spot where it’ll happen for him or the Browns. We’ll take the under here and make Chubb beat us.
Alvin Kamara – Over 104.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)
As Saints running back Alvin Kamara approaches his 30th birthday, expectations of a decline in his performance on the football field have certainly not materialized. Kamara continues to play well despite mediocre offensive line play, and an early season rotation of quarterbacks. This week he squares off against a Rams defense that was just shredded by Saquon Barkley, and has had some trouble stopping the run all season long. With injuries to their top two wideouts, Kamara has also become an even more focal point in the passing game as well. When you look at the depth chart on the Saints offense, the ball has to go to someone, right? That person figures to continue to be Alvin Kamara as he’s been routinely getting 20+ touches running and receiving. This weekend should be no different, with the versatile back likely to have the ball in his hands quite a bit again. In the games that Derek Carr has started, Kamara has topped 100 total yards in all but one. That’s a pretty solid track record that makes taking a chance on Kamara seem like a good wager.
Matthew Stafford – Over 254.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The 2024 season has basically been a split for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. He understandably struggled without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but has been pretty dominant with them in the lineup. In fact, he’s averaged nearly 280 yards passing per game when he’s had both star receivers at his disposal. He’ll have them both in what should be a high scoring game on Sunday when the Rams face the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have struggled to generate a pass rush for most of the season, which has made them vulnerable to passers like Stafford. With injuries in their secondary, Kupp and Nacua should each have the ability to put up some big numbers, which will of course benefit Stafford’s yardage. The only thing that could potentially derail this bet is if running back Kyren Williams is so dominant against a soft defense that Stafford doesn’t get the attempts. But this should be a game for the Rams where everyone feasts. Another performance in the high 200’s passing should be in the cards for Stafford so we’ll back him this weekend.
Cade Otton – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
Last week Tampa Bay tight end Cade Otton only caught one pass in their dominant win over the Giants. As a result, we get a bit of a buy-low situation this week in their matchup against the Panthers. In the previous 8 games, Otton averaged a whopping 9 targets per game, turning just under 6 of those into catches. Yes, it’s true that not having Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the field had a lot to do with that, but with Godwin still out, there’s still plenty of opportunities for Otton. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s playing the Panthers, a team that has struggled all year to stop opposing tight ends. In fact, they rank dead last in receptions and touchdowns allowed to the position in the entire league. Otton should get plenty of looks and have a nice bounceback game on Sunday. We’ll bank on him snagging at least four catches.
