PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-2
SEASON RESULTS:
33-31
Week 11 Recap:
A much needed rebound in week 11 that saw us finish 6-2 and pushing us back above .500 as we head into the stretch run of the season. Our two losses were tough pills to swallow, as we had the under on D’Andre Swift’s rushing yardage and an over on Anthony Richardson. Swift was averaging a paltry 1.8 yards per carry in the 4th quarter of their game with the Packers before busting a 43 yard touchdown run on a short yardage play. Anthony Richardson finished 9 yards shy of his rushing mark, but in the 2nd quarter had a 12 yard run nullified by penalty. No negativity here as that’s part of the game. Our six wins included all three of our plays in the Buffalo Bills game, as we mentioned playing a same game parlay there. James Cook never threatened his rushing total against the stout Chiefs run defense, while Dawson Knox capitalized on his first start, and Josh Allen topped his rushing mark with a dynamic game-sealing run on 4th down. Our other wins were scraping by with the under for Drake London’s yardage, and securing a cover with Courtland Sutton’s over total. Finally, we got a pretty early cover from Joe Mixon on Monday Night Football as he ran right through the Cowboys in the first half.
Week 12 Preview:
No quarterbacks on the slate for week 12, and we’re hating on more players than we’re backing this weekend. Six running backs we’re focused on, and one wide receiver who’s been flying under the radar a bit on the west coast. A good week of player props would have us in the black for the first time all season, let’s see if we can get there. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
Our Picks:
Jonathan Taylor – Under 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Indianapolis Colts square off with perhaps the best team in the league when they host the Lions on Sunday. With the change back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback, the Colts are clearly a run-first team that wants to feature their star running back Jonathan Taylor. There are two big challenges to making that successful this weekend for Indy and the Colts. First, their opponent. The Lions are one of the most physical teams in the league, and their approach is to stop the run first. Second, there is a real possibility the Colts could be trailing by double-digits in this game, despite being a trendy home dog in betting circles. When you look into Taylor’s game log this season, it’s all about getting to 20 carries for him. When he does, the production is generally there. (Although he had 24 totes last week and managed just 57 yards). It’s really difficult to see a path for Taylor to get that kind of usage against the Lions, unless they’re winning. He’s always capable of breaking a big run, but short of something like that happening, this projects more like a game where his rushing yardage ends up under 60 or so.
Javonte Williams – Over 36.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Who really knows what is going on in the mind of Broncos head coach Sean Payton? A week after essentially demoting/benching Javonte Williams, he turned back to him (kind of) a week ago, and Williams rewarded the Broncos with a nice overall performance. Assuming he doesn’t randomly find himself on the pine again for no reason, he has a nice matchup this weekend against the rival Las Vegas Raiders. In their first meeting this season, Williams hit the Raiders for 61 yards averaging 4.7 yards per carry in that contest. Denver enters this game is a near touchdown favorite, so Williams and the other Denver runners should see plenty of work throughout the match. Since the Denver offense started to find their stride in week four, Williams has topped 42 yards in six of the eight games since, and of course that includes his one game “benching”. With a volatile coaching plan and RB rotation it can be a little scary to bet an over, but this number is simply too low based on the circumstances of this game.
J.K. Dobbins – Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Chargers have been a good story to start the season, and that includes a great comeback by running back J.K. Dobbins. After a ridiculously hot start in weeks one and two that saw Dobbins average 133 yards per game and 10 yards per carry, he’s come back to reality a bit. In fact since that hot start, he’s averaged just under 4 yards per carry and other than a couple of strong games against weak run opponents like the Bengals, he’s actually really been held in check. In fact, in games the Chargers have won comfortably, Dobbins has been great, but in games that have been close, or they’ve lost, he’s done very little. In what might be the most important game of the week, he’ll have to take his crack at a Baltimore Ravens defense that is tops in the league at stopping the run. There certainly would also figure to be a game that the Chargers don’t run away with, making this one of those games where the running game is held in check. Holding a good runner under 50 yards may seem tough, but the Ravens have routinely done that to the backs they’ve faced this season. We’ll give the advantage here to Baltimore’s defense over their former back.
Chuba Hubbard – Under 54.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
You could make the argument that no player has elevated their game more year over year than Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. He’s been a bright spot in a disappointing season for Carolina and was rewarded with a hefty new contract. His reward on Sunday is facing a Chiefs defense that has not allowed 55 yards rushing to any opposing running backs this season. If that isn’t a tough enough graphic as he attempts to be the first player to do so, his team is a 10+ point underdog against this Kansas City team coming off of their first loss of the season. It’s not crazy to think this game could get out of hand early with the Panthers leaky defense. Throw into the mix the Panthers are planning to play their 2nd round pick Jonathan Brooks for the first time this season, and this is a tough ask for Hubbard even though he has routinely beat this during the season. Much like the Ravens against J.K. Dobbins, we’ll go with the Chiefs over Hubbard.
Rachaad White – Over 19.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
It’s time for the running backs as receivers portion of our player props, and we’ll start with a back who has quietly become one of the top pass catching backs in the league. With what Rachaad White has lacked in production as a runner, he’s overachieved as a receiver. White has averaged 5 targets per game over the last 7, and his yardage total in the last 4 is 39, 16, 38 and 71, respectively. The Giants defense he’ll be facing is dead last in run defense, and has also struggled stopping backs as receivers. The only breakdown we want to give here is White over 20 yards is going to be a consistent play for us as that is going to hit more often than it isn’t.
Christian McCaffrey – Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
The 49ers season is hitting a bit of desperation mode which is not ideal to have your starting QB not in the lineup. That’s what they’ll face when they go to Green Bay with Brandon Allen getting the nod as the starter. The best thing the Niners can do here is to feature running back Christian McCaffrey to keep the offense moving. The Packers are pretty decent against the run, but are vulnerable on the outsides against receiving backs. McCaffrey has been limited a bit as a runner since his debut a couple of weeks ago, but he has been a focal point in the passing game catching 4 and 6 passes, respectively. Kyle Shanahan will likely be a little cautious with Brandon Allen out of the gate, and you can be sure he’ll be recommending checking it down as well as working some designed screens in for CMC. The yardage may or may not get there for McCaffrey, but the attempts certainly should. We’ll definitely take a swing on him grabbing four or more passes against Green Bay.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Over 56.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Seattle Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba is quietly becoming the player the team hoped he would be when they drafted him in the first round in 2023. JSN has had arguably the two best games of his young career over the past two weekends, and is now fetching more targets than D.K. Metcalf. That rapport with quarterback Geno Smith should be on display again versus the division rival Cardinals. Arizona has watched their defense improve throughout the season, however they have had issues stopping slot receivers all year. Smith-Njigba lines up almost exclusively in the slot, making this a very appealing matchup for the receiver. With a total in the mid 50’s, that’s much more of a WR2 threshold, and at this point, he may unofficially be wide receiver number one. Certainly in this matchup at least. Let’s see if JSN can keep things rolling in week twelve.
