PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-3
SEASON RESULTS:
39-29
Week 10 Recap:
When you’re following up a sub .500 weekend, any profit is good profit, but securing 4 wins and 3 losses left us just a portion of a unit up in week ten. It was basically a back and forth affair throughout the entire weekend. A loss with Will Levis’ passing yards as defenses prevailed in the Titans and Buccaneers game. A nice early bounceback with Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler’s receiving yards which cashed easily as the script went the way we imagined. Mix in another fast cover with Amon-Ra St. Brown who continues to be automatic receiving and things were looking strong. Aaron Jones was the disappointing loss of the day as A.J. Dillon carved up the Steelers on the ground the way we anticipated Jones would. We split in the Monday Night Football game as Dalton Kincaid once again eclipsed his reception total, but Russell Wilson didn’t hit his yardage mark despite pulling off the upset win. Nothing to write home about, but another step in the right direction on the season.
Week 11 Preview:
If you’ve been following Prop Corner this season, you’ll notice some repeat performers, including two from just one week ago that cashed. We’ve got a pair of Lions and a pair of Bills, both including rookie tight ends locked and loaded for success. We’re fading one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, and riding with a few new faces for this season. Eight total wagers in all, with no running backs this weekend. Time to go on a run and get hot at the end of the season!
Our Picks:
Terry McLaurin – Over 58.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Overall it’s been a bit of a “down” season for Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin as he’s yet to secure a 100 yard game and has only topped 70 yards on 4 different occasions. McLaurin may not be lighting up the stat sheet, however he has been pretty consistent in being the number one target, and he’s grabbed at least 4 passes in every game since the opening weekend. On Sunday he faces the division rival New York Giants, a team that’s been in a free-fall since being plagued by the injury bug. Even though the Commanders are heavy favorites, this could end up being a somewhat tight ballgame, if the Giants can find a way to get a few points while they’re on offense. As long as the game is relevant for a full four quarters, we’re expecting a solid performance from McLaurin that should push him over his manageable 58.5 yard total. The Giants have not been able to stop opposing number one wideouts, and McLaurin had his best game of the year when these teams played in week seven, when he racked up a season-high 90 yards receiving. This one will probably be pretty close, but our odds have this one clearing the mark more often than not.
T.J. Hockenson – Over 55.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Despite losing quarterback Kirk Cousins and All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson to injury, the Vikings are actually on a roll. They’ve got a difficult road matchup in Denver, another team that has found some recent success after a tough start to the year. The Vikes will be rolling with Joshua Dobbs again at quarterback, and that should be good news for tight end T.J. Hockenson. Dobbs has leaned on the star tight end since his arrival in Minnesota three weeks ago, as he’s peppered Hockenson with 12 and 15 targets in his two appearances. With Jefferson not quite yet ready to return, Hockenson figures to be busy yet again. Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II is likely to see a lot of Jordan Addison, which means Dobbs will have to look in other directions when he’s throwing. Depending on which metric you prefer, the Broncos have been the worst team in the league at defending opposing tight ends. There is more than enough ammunition here to expect Hockenson to best this mark at Mile High Stadium.
Josh Allen – Over 27.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
No team has routinely given Bills quarterback Josh Allen more fits than the New York Jets over the past few seasons. The Jets work hard at punching Allen in the mouth with their front seven, and blanketing his weapons like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the secondary. As a result, Allen has been on the run a lot more than he has versus most other teams when he’s faced the Jets, totaling a lot of carries and yards. Sunday his yardage total sits at 27.5 yards, a number that is fair for his lessened running on the season. However, this game should be different on a few accounts. First, this is an absolute must-win game for the Bills, and Allen does run more frequently when the plays and games mean more. Next, the Bills will have a new play-caller, and one who has already stated Allen and the Bills offense is at its best when there is a run/pass threat from the quarterback. Don’t be surprised if there are some early on designed running plays for Allen to get him fired up, and keep the Jets defense honest. And lastly, what we mentioned before in terms of the matchup. Allen will face some pressure and with not wanting to have a repeat performance of interceptions like he had against the Jets in the opener, look for him to tuck and run rather than force the ball into coverage.
Brock Purdy – Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-105)
Those bench Brock Purdy calls sure didn’t last very long as he returned to form last week to toss three touchdowns in a beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars. His matchup this week isn’t easy, but it should be at least a little softer as he plays in the comfort of his home stadium against a defense that has had some issues giving up passing yards this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will undoubtedly be focused on slowing down Christian McCaffrey, which is good news for Purdy and the passing game of the 49ers. If you caught our week eleven betting article, you saw we love the 49ers to get over their team total scoring this week as we’ve got them hitting the 30 point mark. That means even if Christian McCaffrey punches a couple of touchdowns in on the ground, the Niners would still likely have to throw at least a pair. Because of the matchup, and the now health of the 49ers offense, we’re going to bank on Purdy carrying this torch to the finish line as he should find a way to get a couple of touchdown tosses against this Buccaneers defense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Over 83.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Another week and another 100+ yard performance for Lions star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown last Sunday. Despite being the most consistent wide receiver in the league this season, his yardage total still isn’t really rising. Last week we backed St. Brown at over 82.5 yards and he got there pretty easily. This week his mark is set just one yard higher at 83.5 which means we’re automatically backing him yet again. It’s not just the track record of his work this season, he’s got some nice things working in his favor this Sunday as well. The Lions are at home, where quarterback Jared Goff has been absolutely dominant. Their opponent is also ripe for attacking as the Bears have been the stingiest team defending the run, but very vulnerable against the pass. Even though Detroit loves to run the football, they may be forced to throw a little more than they’d like. The recipe looks good for cooking up another great game for St. Brown this weekend.
Sam LaPorta – Over 44.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Lions resurgence is the result of several key factors, and one of the most notable is the quality drafting of GM Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell. One of those high-performing players is rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who has slotted in nicely in the departed spot of T.J. Hockenson. The TE has been one of the most consistent players on the entire offense for Detroit snagging at least 4 passes in every game except for one. We’re going over with LaPorta’s yards as they’re set at a very manageable 44.5 in their game against the Bears. As you read above with Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Bears are far better at stopping the run than the pass. LaPorta has topped the 44.5 yards in all but three games this season, and even in those three games he was still close with 36, 39, and 40 yards, respectively. Jared Goff should thrive at home against this Bears defense, and LaPorta will be in the mix as he has been all season.
Dalton Kincaid – Over 48.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
At some point Dalton Kincaid is going to let us down with his props, but after cashing again last week we’re a perfect 6-0 backing the rookie tight end. As we discussed a week ago, the books have somewhat caught up with Kincaid, however this is another great spot to play him in their matchup with the Jets. The Bills offense is reeling a bit and coming off of a four turnover performance in their loss last week to the Broncos. With a new offensive coordinator at the helm following the firing of Ken Dorsey, look for the early part of the game to involve a lot of safe throws, which is where Dalton Kincaid has done his work thus far in the season. The Jets boast one of the top secondarys in the league, and the past two seasons they have really been able to slow down the Bills passing attack, and in particular their wide receivers. With Kincaid routinely going over this yardage total since the injury to Dawson Knox, and in a game where he may find himself as the open receiver even more often than normal, let’s ride this one yet again and see if we can get to 7-0.
Justin Herbert – Under 259.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Everybody knows Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert can flat out sling the football, so if you’re playing an under it’s always going to be risky. With players like Herbert, you kind of have to pick your spots, knowing he can go for 400 in any given game. When you look at his production this year, he’s had a few of those type of games, but overall, he’s had some games that are much quieter as well. The Chargers head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers in a game that doesn’t have the feel of a high-scoring track meet. Neither team is particularly great at stopping the run, so we’ll probably hear the names Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley a lot in this one. Also of note is Justin Herbert’s yardage totals are noticeably lower in outdoor grass stadium games than they are when he’s playing indoors. That could be nothing, but it’s worth pointing out at the very least. Finally, there is the matter of personnel for the Chargers offense in terms of weapons at the skill positions. In addition to the already thin wide receiver room without Mike Williams, the team ruled tight end Gerald Everett out, and even Keenan Allen is not at full strength nursing a bit of a shoulder injury. Again, this total could get blown out of the water, however it really doesn’t matter if it goes over by 1 yard or 200 yards, a loss would be a loss. We’re going to go against Herbert coming off of a strong performance a week ago.
