PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-5
SEASON RESULTS:
27-29
Week 10 Recap:
Just when it seemed like we had some momentum going with the 2024 NFL season, a cold slap of reality hit us in week 10 as we posted a pathetic mark of 1-5 with our player prop bets. The losses were a combination of some bad luck, but also some bad misses. Our lone win, was backing Chuba Hubbard in the matchup in Germany, as he torched the soft NY Giants run defense all game, covering in the first half. Speaking of that game, we had a tough loss with Daniel Jones passing total, needing him to simply get to 200 yards passing. In a game where his team was behind, you’d think that could happen. It looked as though it was going to happen, as he needed just nine yards when the Giants got possession of the ball in overtime, but a fumble on the second snap ended that ballgame, and Jones never got to top his mark. For what it’s worth, it doesn’t look as though Jones will ever top a mark as the Giants quarterback again after that letdown. Next, we lost both sides of the Cardinals and Jets, as we were on James Conner to have a big day, and Aaron Rodgers to toss a pair of touchdowns. Conner did have a big day. Unfortunately, it was through the air as a receiver, and we had his rushing totals. Rodgers got the Jets into the red zone on three occasions, but the team was unable to rack up a single touchdown for the entire game. With the Jets down near 30 with almost a half to play, it felt like some garbage scoring might happen, but well, that’s the Jets season in a nutshell. We also missed on James Cook and his receiving yardage, as he did the opposite of Conner, running well, but catching only one short pass on the day. The Bills used two minute offense at the end of the first half, but third string back Ty Johnson snagged the passing yards for the Bills against the Colts. And lastly, we had a tough beat with Jared Goff’s under passing yards against a tough Texans defense. Goff did nothing for most of the game, other than throwing the ball to the Houston defense, but with the Lions trailing all game, he just got over his mark when they went into heavy throwing mode in the second half. A couple of bad reads, and a couple of tough losses, all put us back behind the eight ball, as we press on towards profits.
Week 11 Preview:
We’ve got some variety with our player props for week 11, with eight total wagers. Five players we’re backing, and three we’re fading. Only one quarterback this week, but not with anything to do with passing the football. We have three players in the marquee contest between the Chiefs and Bills. We’re not big on the same game parlays, but this one might be an exception. After a difficulty week 10, we’re ready and needing to rebound this weekend.
Our Picks:
D’Andre Swift – Under 68.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Bears season is slowing unraveling in a lot of ways, but there has been a bright spot during this stretch. Running back D’Andre Swift has stepped up his play from the beginning of the year and has been one of the steadier rushers in the league since week three. So why are we fading him this weekend against the Packers? In simple terms, this number is too high, and the matchup is too poor. Despite a steady dose of high carries in the mid to high teens, Swift has only accrued 51 and 59 yards the past two weekends, and not against great teams either. The Packers have tightened up their run defense over the last year, and rank in the top eight in yards per carry allowed. When you factor in Green Bay being a pretty heavy favorite, there is a chance the Bears will need to abandon the run in the second half of this game. All of this with a poor offensive line, and we’ll take an under with Swift on Sunday.
Drake London – Under 62.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Having Kirk Cousins in Atlanta has turned Drake London into what they franchise had hoped, which is a legitimately good wide receiver. London currently ranks 8th in the league in yards, leading a spread out attack for the Falcons and Cousins. Sunday is arguably his toughest matchup to date, against a really stingy Denver defense. London has feasted on some poor pass defenses this year, mainly those in his own division of the NFC South. When he’s faced tougher opponents like the Steelers and Eagles, the yardage was much tougher to come by. Because he will see his fair share of targets, this will undoubtedly be an under sweat, but this is not the best matchup for London. We’ll see if the Broncos defense can shut down the talented up and coming wideout.
Anthony Richardson – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
After Joe Flacco was unable to generate some offense and wins for the Colts, the franchise turns back to young Anthony Richardson. Our handicap on this prop is pretty simple. Anytime Richardson’s rushing prop is below 40 yards we’re going to take it. Yes, it’s true that he’s topped 40 in half of his starts, but he’s getting the volume of totes in each game. Coming off of his benching, you can expect Richardson to be fired up and playing his hardest. He’s going to want to take care of the football and not turn it over as well. Against the Jets, it’s going to be difficult for his weapons at receiver to get open against the tough cornerbacks of New York. The result of that should be a lot of running for Richardson.
Courtland Sutton – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Is there a more underrated player in the entire league than Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton? All this guy does year in and year out is make plays, and you rarely ever hear his name mentioned. After a slow start to the season as rookie QB Bo Nix was getting his feet underneath him, Sutton has emerged, racking up 100, 122 and 70 yards respectively. Sutton is a true WR1, who is often an afterthought each week. He has a nice matchup against a pretty soft Atlanta Falcons defense Sunday, with a total under 55 yards. The Falcons were just lit up by Marquez Valdes-Scantling at home, so rolling with Sutton at home with this total just seems like a solid wager.
James Cook – Under 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
It’s interesting James Cook’s rushing prop is sitting at 58.5 yards rushing, when not a single running back this season has topped that mark against the Chiefs. The only player to top that, was Lamar Jackson in week one. Look at this master class of run defense we’ve seen this year from Kansas City: Derrick Henry, 46 yards. Bijan Robinson, 31 yards. J.K. Dobbins, 32 yards. Alvin Kamara, 26 yards. That doesn’t include the lesser running backs who are essentially in the teens, like Alexander Mattison and Rachaad White. Bills RB James Cook is a very good player, and they do run the offense through him under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but we’ve seen nothing to indicate why Cook’s number would be so high based on what the Chiefs have done this year. Cook will get some initial attempts as the Bills do run a lot on early downs, but this number just doesn’t seem to make sense.
Josh Allen – Over 34.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is running less than he ever has in his career, as by design and matured play by him. All bets are off though when playing the Kansas City Chiefs, a team Allen has had some great rushing performances against in his career. When the stakes are high, Allen is not afraid to tuck the ball and take off to make important first downs. The Bills play-calling will also feature some scripted runs in the bigger games. As you saw above, we’re not expecting a lot on the ground from the Bills running backs, so Allen becomes the runner by default. Much like in week one, where Lamar Jackson had to take on the running duties for the Ravens. With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid out of the lineup, the Bills offense will need to be a potpourri of whatever they can find. A big part of that should be the legs of Josh Allen.
Dawson Knox – Over 27.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Ever since the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, previous starting tight end Dawson Knox has essentially been a forgotten man. In a game that is going to draw a lot of TV viewers, he’s got a golden opportunity to remind fans that he’s had some big games in his career as well. Some of his best performances have actually come against the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s a good sign as the Chiefs currently rank dead last in yards allowed to opposing tight ends. The Bills are also short at the wide receiver position with Keon Coleman ruled out, and Amari Cooper a true game-time decision. The Bills top option, Khalil Shakir, is going to see a lot of the Chiefs top cornerback, Trent McDuffie. Although Knox has been a non-factor in the receiving game so far this season, he should have some opportunities to be on the receiving end of several targets on Sunday.
Joe Mixon – Over 86.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We hear a lot about C.J. Stroud and when they were healthy receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. The fact of the matter is, the Houston Texans offense runs through Joe Mixon and the rushing attack. Mixon had a tough test last weekend against the Lions, but things loosen up a bit this weekend against the Dallas Cowboys for a couple of reasons. For starters, the previously mentioned Nico Collins is set to return, which means teams cannot stack the box against Mixon as they could without a viable deep threat and receiving weapon. The bigger reason is simply the fact that Dallas is not very good on defense, and in stopping the run. They’re allowing over 4.7 yards per carry to opposing runners. Game script may definitely come into play here as well, as it’s possible the Texans could get up against a poor Cowboys offense, and simply opt to take the air out of the ball in the second half if Dallas is unable to generate offense. This should be a 100 yard game for Mixon, so even with a high number, we’ll take the over.
