PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-0
SEASON RESULTS:
26-24
Week 9 Recap:
Our Brian Robinson, Jr. prop bet was voided as he was inactive, which was ironically our favorite play of week nine. Fortunately, of our three remaining bets, we swept the board with just a little sweat, pushing us closer to season profit. The sweat came with the passing yardage over for Matthew Stafford, who actually didn’t get there in regulation. Fortunately, that game went into overtime, and Stafford was able to vault past the total for a win. Jayden Reed had a huge game for the Packers in some inclement rainy weather soaring over his total, and Kareem Hunt continued to churn away yards on the ground besting his mark. It’s crazy that it’s taken this long to sweep a slate, but we’ll take it.
Week 10 Preview:
It’s a domestic six pack of player props this week with a trio of quarterbacks and running backs on our card. We’re fading perhaps the most impressive player on the slate, and backing one of the worst players in the league, which almost feels wrong. The numbers and matchups don’t like however, so let’s see how this goes.
Our Picks:
Jared Goff – Under 231.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Has there been a quarterback in recent memory with a better overall situation than the Lions Jared Goff? Let’s not take anything away from the Lions signal-caller, he is playing absolutely phenomenal football this season and is in deserved conversation for league MVP. But when you have arguably the top offensive coordinator, a top three offensive line, two great complimentary running backs, and a plethora of receiving options, how much do you really need to do? It’s because of this Goff is barely even throwing the football. It’s really incredible as the Lions are blowing opponents out, that he’s thrown for just 145, and 85 yards in the past two games. He’ll likely have to throw a little more against the Texans on Sunday Night Football, but the Lions offense will continue to run through David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Texans have had some offensive woes on their side of the ball as they’re adjusting to injuries, so the Lions shouldn’t be in a trailing mode where they’re forced to throw. It’s also worth noting, the Texans defense is better defending the pass than they are the run this year. Dan Campbell won’t mind running it repeatedly, so this number seems a tad too high for Goff in this one. We’ll fade the QB, and expect another efficient, but lean performance in terms of yardage.
Chuba Hubbard – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Carolina Panthers organization is nothing short of a disaster in almost every area you can examine. One bright spot in an otherwise disastrous stretch has been the emergence of running back Chuba Hubbard, who has capitalized on his opportunities as a lead back in the league. He’s played so well, the team gave him a hefty contract this week. While you can argue whether or not you should pay a running back, there is no debating Hubbard has been really good for his team this year. He’s 5th in the league in rushing yards, and is averaging over five yards per carry on the season. Since week three, Hubbard has averaged 18 carries per game, making him one of the bigger workhorses in the league. Sunday morning in Germany, Hubbard will take a crack at the New York Giants defense, which currently ranks dead last in the league in run defense. This figures to be a competitive game between two teams who are not very good, so Carolina should have the option to run for all four quarters. With a lack of receivers to throw to, the Panthers have to establish the run to have any chance of moving the ball and winning this game. Let’s take a chance on Hubbard proving that contract wasn’t a fluke against this leaky defense of New York.
James Conner – Over 78.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Speaking of running backs who are earning their paychecks, we need to start giving James Conner some respect. He currently sits 6th in the league in rushing, and is one of the most physical runners in the game. At first glance it may appear Conner has a tough matchup against the New York Jets, but this Jets defense is a far cry from the elite group from a year ago, and they’re missing a couple of players on their interior Sunday, including middle linebacker C.J. Mosley. The Jets are essentially a middle of the pack type of defense at this point, and one of their biggest struggles is stopping physical runners. When you look at Conner’s game logs this year, it’s clearly two distinct stories. Against good run defenses like the Lions and Packers for example, he really has struggled. But against the lesser run defenses, he’s been a consistent battering ram, ripping off 5 yard runs at a good clip. The Jets rush defense could very well struggle with Conner, and he could be in line for a nice game at home. We were hoping to get this number in the lower 70’s, but we’ll go ahead and play it over even in the high 70’s.
Daniel Jones – Over 199.5 Yards Passing (-115)
In a sign the apocolypse may be coming soon, we are betting on New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones this weekend. Yes, you read that correctly, we’re on Danny Dimes, in what seems like the Twilight Zone. If Jones is ever going to cover a yardage number, this game sure seems like the one to do it. He’ll be facing the worst defense in the league overall in the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is worst at pass rush win rate, and are just bad overall. With some time to throw, Jones should be able to get the ball to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson, and maybe even spread it around a bit. The Giants will be able to run it, so there is a little threat of Jones not getting enough pass attempts in, but this number is sub 200 yards. Less than 200 yards against the worst defense in the league. And it’s not like Jones hasn’t been regularly eclipsing the 200 yard mark, as he’s done that in five of the last seven games. It’s really simple here for us. Low number, terrible defense, let’s go over.
James Cook – Over 15.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Buffalo Bills head to Indianapolis pretty short-handed at the receiver position. It looks as though Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman will be missing this contest, and guys like Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins are a little banged up. That basically leaves Khalil Shakir as the main receiving weapon, with some contribution from tight end Dalton Kincaid along the way. Who’s up next to catch some passes for the offense? Look to the running backs, and this week, starting back James Cook. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will each get some opportunities as well, but Cook should have a great opportunity to cruise past 15.5 receiving yards against Indy. Cook had 22 and 25 yards receiving the last two weeks, respectively, and there was even less necessity in those games. Quarterback Josh Allen has been taking what the defenses are giving him all year, and in this matchup, that will be the check down pass to Cook. With the lack of production at the wideout position, you can bet offensive coordinator Joe Brady will get the ball in Cook and the backs hands on some designed throws as well. This is a great matchup play that should be able to get home.
Aaron Rodgers – Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-110)
It’s completely fair and reasonable to dunk on the New York Jets, as they’ve earned everything coming to them. The question for Gang Green moving forward is, did they dig themselves too deep of a hole to climb out of? Lost in the disappointment of the season is the flashes quarterback Aaron Rodgers has shown, particularly a week ago with new weapon Davante Adams added to Garrett Wilson at the receiver position. Sunday the Jets face a Cardinals team that many feel has overperformed, as a polar opposite of New York. The Cardinals defense in particular has played better than most believed they would, but this is still not an elite unit by any stretch. The Jets should be able to move the ball and get some points on the board. The Cardinals have only given up 11 passing touchdowns on the year, but they have given up a lot of yards. That bend but don’t break defense will be tested as the Jets now have the ability to attack in the red zone. Aaron Rodgers has tossed at least 2 touchdown passes in four of the last five games, and is coming off of a three TD performance a week ago. In fact, in the one game where Rodgers only threw one touchdown, he had two called back on penalty in that game. We’re going to try to ride the wave with Rodgers in this one and see if Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson can grab at least a pair of scores.
