Saturday started strong with an Arizona shutout and ended with a disappointing display from the Rockies. Colorado had their opportunities but Steven Matz went deep into the pitch count and struck out 10 with his nasty curve and pinpoint fastballs. On the flip side, Zack Greinke squashed the Jays offense and combined with the bullpen to pitch a shutout. Toronto left a lot on the table, which is testament to both Greinke’s prowess and their inept offense.
I leaned to the Reds as a dog yesterday and stayed away for the simple fact that I cannot get a good read on that team. Put them in the same boat as the Cardinals and Indians for that matter. Good thing I laid off because they were squashed by Pivetta and the Phillies. My handicapping says take the Reds again but I’ll be a spectator for the above reason, plus the fact that their offense has cooled off dramatically.
The 1-1 split returned a little lunch money back to the bankroll, adding +0.10 units due to the plus-money payout from the manufactured -1 run line on the Diamondbacks. The week plods along with a 4-5 record that has cost me 0.92 units. I’ll run it back with Arizona and get on a team that has done well for us in very limited situations…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays
Run it Back: Diamondbacks RL (-1) -134 ML / +115 RL
Despite not having as strong of a starter today, the Arizona line took a bit of a haircut from the oddsmakers. Clearly this is not a result of Ray being better than Greinke or Richard being dramatically worse than Sanchez, but a recognition that this D-backs club can mash the ball and Toronto has a hell of a hard time scoring runs. Arizona has outscored them 14-2 in the first two games of this series and should be able to extend this differential with a sweep this afternoon.
Saturday’s article detailed Arizona’s momentum-building as well as their solid record outside of games against the Dodgers and Rockies. Clearly, I like Robbie Ray less than Greinke but still have confidence in this Diamondbacks team getting the sweep. Ray has troubles with walks, however, the other team needs to capitalize on them and the Blue Jays struggle to do so. He limits damage with strikeouts (91) and very few homers (6) in his 69.2 innings of work.
Clayton Richard has a smaller body of work this season, and has fared reasonably well if you’re looking at ERA only. Dig deeper and you see a 9 K/9 BB ratio over 12.2 innings, which the Arizona offense can take advantage of with their power. He has yet to make it through 5 innings, which puts added stress on a bullpen that has been allowing a lot of baserunners. Richard has some strong attributes to him though, posting a 27.8% soft contact rate and a 55.6% ground ball rate. That being said, the Diamondbacks should feast at the plate yet again today.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Small Ball: Royals RL (-1) -125 ML / +150 RL
As frustrating as the Royals offense can be, Reynaldo Lopez is even more so for the White Sox. Apparently, there is nothing more that he’d rather do than put men on base and challenge the opponent to see if they can push them around to score. Kansas City’s offense has some bright spots as well as some truly low points at the bottom of the order. Glenn Sparkman gets the start for Kansas City today as these starters rematch their May 29th game, though this edition is played in KC rather than Chicago.
Last time out was ugly for both guys as the Sox edged out the Royals 8-7. Sparkman got pounded for 4 runs in 1 inning, while Lopez gave up 5 in 5.2 innings. I don’t know if we can read too much into these guys’ home/road splits, but here are some selected stats for today’s starters:
Lopez (away): .340 BAA / .610 SLG / 1.90 WHIP / .377 BABIP / 50.0% HC
Sparkman (home): .236 BAA / .360 SLG / 1.11 WHIP / .253 BABIP / 39.0% HC
The splits data must be taken into context, so let’s look at their last three opponents. Lopez faced a rising Washington club, an ever-powerful Twins lineup, and Indians. Sparkman got the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers. There isn’t much of a disparity between those recent opponents as an aggregate to discount the above metrics.
These division foes know each other quite well. If you look at their records within the AL Central, you’ll see that the White Sox are 6-11 on the road and the Royals are 6-4 at home. The Royals have a hit-or-miss offense and today I expect them to be opportunistic and grind out a solid win with small ball and “hold on for dear life” pitching.
KC’s bullpen gives their opponents some opportunities but doesn’t necessarily crumble with men on base. The White Sox’ relievers have been solid, though they are volatile and can be susceptible to giving up runs. Bullpens will be huge in this one as neither starter is expected to go deep. I like the Royals defense much better and think their offense will grind this thing out. A straight -125 money line bet doesn’t reward me enough for the fact that I am backing the Royals, so I will split the wager in half with a +150 run line play.
