The rigorous schedule of a 50+ hour job collides with MLB handicapping sometimes, as it has early this Monday morning. Fortunately, the slate is extremely light as I write this article: only 6 games are up on the board (1 of which is at Wrigley). I planned to give an update on pace and other observations for today’s article, but duty calls and I’ve gotta get out the door ASAP with 1 ticket in hand…
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Hide Your Eyes: Rangers RL +120
I’m not sure what it says about someone who trusts the Texas Rangers to hold the opponent’s scoring down. Foolish? Perhaps. But I’m back to my bet-against stance on the Mariners. The gravy train in Boston a couple weekends ago really awakened the masses to the resurgence of the Red Sox and the true colors of the Mariners. So prices have not been great to fade the M’s lately. Despite a solid win against Minnesota on Sunday, the Mariners have lost 7 of their last 10 and did so by a margin of at least 4 runs in their last 6 losses.
Mike Leake can cause problems for opposing hitters with his periodic mastery of the finesse game. In his last 2 starts, he generated 20%+ soft contact and no more than 32% hard contact. I am skeptical that this production will continue, especially against a Texas Rangers club that beat him up on April 27th. While everybody has rough days, Leake should perform somewhere in the middle: not lights-out and not a batting practice pitcher. Seattle’s offensive consistency is down in recent weeks although their power is always a factor.
Mike Minor has been the lone stalwart in the Texas rotation with good command of his stuff. He’s been able to reduce his fly ball rate this season and has only yielded 6 home runs in 58.2 innings. Other than the opener against the Cubs, Minor has been very good at home in the 3 starts since. He gave up o runs in 24 innings in those starts, though they came against lesser competition (Blue Jays, Angels, and Astros before they hit their groove). The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 and just took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals. They’ve scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 7 games. Both bullpens are shaky, so anything goes in the last few innings.
