After 18 years of hosting the NASCAR Cup Championship race, Homestead Speedway is now home to a mid-season 400-mile contest. At this point in the sports landscape, that suits me just fine. Miami may no longer be the center of a season-ending celebration, but plenty of eyes will be focused on the 1.5-mile oval nonetheless. No Championship at Homestead? No problem.
Homestead-Miami Speedway has crowned quite a few NASCAR Champions over the years. Stewart, Kenseth, Johnson (seven times, by the way), Harvick, Truex, Logano, and Busch(es) all walked away from this track with the sport’s ultimate prize. It was originally constructed in the likeness of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, just shorter. Stock cars are not able to maneuver the flat turns like open wheel racers so the original configuration quickly went the way of the dodo. 2003’s re-reconfiguration gave Homestead proper 20-degree banking and plenty of sizzle. We should get good racing this weekend, but keep in mind that this track is on the more abrasive side. It’s not as bad as California, Darlington or Atlanta, but it will be a factor.
Back and Forth
The transition from Martinsville should be interesting for the teams, especially those with less experience at the Cup level. Over the course of three weekends, the circuit has hit high-banked Bristol, Atlanta’s fast track, the Martinsville half-mile, and now Homestead. Martin Truex, Jr. notched his first win of the 2020 season with a very impressive rebound from an early penalty. Truex was trending positively out of the break and has now finished in the Top 10 in all but one of those seven races. The lone exception being a 20th at Bristol, which should have surprised no one. MTJ will ride this momentum into Homestead, where he has been dominant recently.
Another quick turnaround between Wednesday night at the short track and Sunday in Miami will be a big test for the teams. Different track, different setup, different approach to the race. It will give Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin less time to stew over their unimpressive nights. As I noted in the previous preview, the top positions at Martinsville in recent year have been dominated by the six “big guns” of the Cup Series. Only half of this contingent finished better than 15th place, as Kyle and Denny never recovered from being put down a lap early. Harvick was strong for quite a bit of the race but seemed to lose his mojo all of the sudden.
Brad Keselowski extended his Top 10 run at Martinsville to nine straight races. Even more impressive is that this high-level consistency includes eight Top 5 finishes and a pair of wins. Aggressive young drivers like Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney took advantage of the missing usual suspects to finish 5th and 2nd, respectively. Blaney led his Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano in a 2-3-4 finishing order. Logano seemed like the man to beat early on. He led almost half of all the laps but ultimately surrendered to MTJ. Truex joins a field of eight teams that are now locked into the NASCAR postseason.
Short Card, Big Result
JJ beat Kurt outright in 12 of 14 Martinsville races between 2011-17. These last two years, however, are owned by Busch. That’s four straight head-to-head wins in a row on this track, and four of the last six this season. I expect another tight matchup on Wednesday with both finishing in the Top 10.
BetCrushers.com – Short Week, Short Track at Martinsville (6/10/2020)
Once again, we hung our hat on Kurt Busch topping Jimmie Johnson in a head-to-head matchup. I’ll be completely honest in saying that wager looked to be burnt toast when Jimmie won Stage 1 in the midst of leading 70 laps. But Busch had a late-race surge while Truex and a swarm of Penske Fords overtook Johnson. If I was absolutely right about anything, it was predicting a tight matchup with their 9th & 10th place finishes.
Another Kurt vs. Jimmie matchup win was a nice hit, but it hardly compares to finally winning with Ryan Blaney. After three gut-wrenching losses this year with the kid, redemption at Martinsville was as dramatic as it gets. Our preview article hyped him up as “An Emerging Short Track Star” but the start was far from glamorous. He drew the pole and promptly faded a lap down before the lights came on at the track. It was almost like the car couldn’t hold a tight line on the half-mile’s curb.
He fought back to get the free pass on a restart and worked his way back to the top. Then a poor pit stop coupled with a penalty sunk him to the rear of the lead lap. Now our second of two positions looked crispy as well. He was stuck behind lapped traffic, struggling to navigate it. But he did. And when Blaney reached the cars on the lead lap, he picked them off one by one until the lead pack was in sight. Mad props to this kid for staying focused, racing hard, and being decisively aggressive.
The Championship Effect
Tony Stewart won the 2002 Cup Championship in Homestead-Miami Speedway’s inaugural year of hosting the final race of the season. The playoff structure was much different in those days, enabling Stewart to finish the Ford 400 in 18th place and still take home the big trophy. Since 2014, the field of Championship contenders in the final race is limited to the four drivers with the most playoff points. This made the Homestead contest the be-all and end-all for the title. Some liked it, others didn’t.
Under the current playoff structure, I seem to recall two, three, or all four of the contenders duking it out in the final laps at Homestead. Was that actually what happened? If so, are drivers that were not part of the “Championship 4” in recent years undervalued? The core of this theory is that non-contenders are less apt to vie for the lead and challenge the four that are battling for NASCAR’s ultimate prize. Everyone will be fighting for the same prize without the season title hanging in the balance on Sunday.
NASCAR’s Championship 4 in 2014-19
[ninja_tables id=”9818″]Two things pop out at me from this table of results. 1) The Cup Champion won each of the six Homestead races. This is no coincidence. 2) The 2nd place finisher in the season standings was runner-up in five of those six races. 2016 was the outlier to the latter, when Carl Edwards fought off a pass attempt by fellow-contender Joey Logano with a handful of laps to go. I remember it like it was yesterday as a holder of a juicy futures ticket on Edwards that went up in smoke just like that. 2016’s contentious race would likely have been a 1-2 finish for the Championship if not for that crazy wreck.
Don’t get me wrong, the Championship contenders have consistently raced at the front of the pack here since 2014 because they are damn good. They placed 1-2-3 in 2017, 1-2-3-4 in 2018, and 1-2-4 in 2019. Non-contenders ran hard but had no choice but to respect the Championship 4’s pursuit of a NASCAR title. This is evidenced by a repeated 1-2 finish from contenders in this playoff format, with the caution-filled 2016 finish being the lone exception.
Since there is no Championship at Homestead this year, will we see more drivers challenging the frontrunners? Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and even someone like Clint Bowyer could find themselves in position to push the big guns harder in the final laps than in years past. Unfortunately, this is an opinion that is difficult to support factually since this is the first time in nearly two decades that the Homestead contest is…well, just another race on the schedule. I am not sure how actionable this theory is, though it is something to consider.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
NASCAR Cup Series Champions dominate the top of the board, as expected. Truex, Busch, and Harvick won four of the last six races at Homestead and sit at very short odds to make it five of seven on Sunday. Chase Elliott worked his way into the fold with two Top 10 finishes in four Cup races here. Friday’s draw for the starting lineup essentially echoes the opening odds, except that Denny Hamlin is the pole sitter at 10/1. Logano, Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Elliott, and Truex round out the first three rows for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 lineup.
Ryan Blaney -115 vs. Alex Bowman
I have a newfound confidence in Ryan Blaney. Last week’s impressive performance gave me hope that the previous three failed positions were just a matter of bad timing. Then again, we’re seeing Ryan mature with each race of his sixth full season on the Cup Series circuit. Since the Coca-Cola 600, Blaney has finished no worse than 4th in four of the five races. The outlier is the painful Bristol spinout that put him out of the race in last place. He’s in spectacular form coming into Homestead, yet I do not feel that he is overpriced.
Blaney’s failure to crack the Top 10 at Homestead is probably why. He ran well in the three races leading up to the 2019 finale, in which he finished 11th. This was a step forward from his previous best of 17th (2016, 2018) and a big jump from his final two seasons in the Wood Brothers #21. He is a driver on the upswing and I expect nothing less than a Top 10 finish on Sunday. Unfortunately, laying -225 to support this opinion is too expensive for my taste. With no NASCAR Championship up for grabs at Homestead this year, the door should be even more open for Blaney. I doubt he can beat out Busch, Harvick, Truex, and company for the win, but another Top 5 finish is very realistic. Will we see +200 or better in the Top 5 markets this weekend?
Toe to Toe with Bowman
Alex Bowman has been solid at Homestead behind the wheel of the Hendrick Motorsports #88. He outraced Ryan in two of the last three here, although last year’s contest ended in just a two-position differential. Not to take away from Bowman’s solid performance, but Blaney had the upper hand most of the race. The #12 team’s pit window strategy did not pay off and Ryan missed a Top 10 finish despite being 6th at the end of Stage 1 and 2. Bottom line is that both of these young drivers are capable of a strong finish on Sunday.
Both have proven to be very fast this season. However, Blaney’s aggressiveness really separates these two in my eyes. You’re seeing him start to be more surgical with this aggression, allowing him to make critical passes on very good competitors. Bowman may have snapped out of his post-Darlington lull with a 12th at Atlanta and 6th at Martinsville, but Blaney and his Penske Mustang have simply been better. He’s brewing with confidence since his top-notch performances in Charlotte, and that confidence has rubbed off on me. This is Ryan Blaney’s matchup to lose, so I will back him with little hesitation as a -115 pick ’em.
Ryan Newman -121 vs. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Ryan Newman may be in the sunset of his 19-year career, but he’s anything but a pushover. I gave Newman his due in our Bristol preview and we backed him in two matchups purely due to his stubbornness and toughness at The Coliseum. He rewarded us by muscling his way to the finish line after surviving two spinouts. As we all know, Bristol is a totally different track than Florida’s 1.5-mile. Is this the venue to back him at?
Don’t forget that the 2003 Driver of the Year was runner-up in 2014 as a member of the inaugural Championship 4. Kevin Harvick edged out Newman for the title despite logging his second of five Top 10 finishes at Homestead in the 2010s. The Rocket Man’s 7th place finish last year was impressive, considering it was his first year in the Roush Fenway Mustang after 10 years driving a Chevy. He finished in the Top 20 in six of seven races this year since the break – not including the insanely dramatic 9th place finish at Daytona. His season is not sexy by any sense, though it has been rock solid.
Newman’s antithesis, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is all over the place. The tongue is firmly in cheek when Fox Sports commentators Mike Joy and Jeff Gordon call him “Mr. Excitement”. Stenhouse finished outside the Top 20 in five of the seven races since this season’s break. The flip side is that Ricky placed 4th in the mid-week Charlotte race and 13th at Atlanta last weekend. Both of those efforts were good enough to beat out Newman, even though they finished together in 13th and 14th place in the QuikTrip 500.
The Upper Hand in Miami
These former Roush Fenway Racing teammates had rough endings to the 2016 Homestead race. Ricky’s spin and wreck coming out of a late restart was his own doing (go figure) while Newman’s demise resulted from the Carl Edwards knockout that left Martin Truex, Jr. in flames. Both finished outside the Top 20 in that race, though it should be noted these two were running 9th and 10th before these late wrecks. Stenhouse has improved at Homestead since then, except he has yet to beat out Newman on this track. 2016 & 2018 were very close, but the 19-year vet has shown me enough upside and consistency at Homestead. I give Ryan Newman a considerable edge on Sunday due to his stability, and am willing to lay a little extra juice in this spot against Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Austin Dillon +105 vs. Matt DiBenedetto
Prior to the Bristol race, I called Matt DiBenedetto a “gap up” driver in his Cup Series career progression. This term is taken from the investing world to describe a stock that opens above the previous day’s high. You saw DiBenedetto take big steps forward last year at many tracks in the Leavine Family #95. Broadcasts gave him more face time during practice sessions, increasing awareness of the fifth-year Cup driver. However, it was not long before he lost his ride in favor of graduating Xfinity star Christopher Bell. Matt landed on his feet soon enough as the Wood Brothers brought him in to take over the #21 Mustang for the retiring Paul Menard.
This season, DiBenedetto has posted personal best finishes at Fontana, Charlotte, and the other night at Martinsville. He tied his best at Phoenix and was in the ballpark at Darlington. Matty D is clearly taking the next step in 2020 – a combination of personal improvement and having a better ride. I wanted a matchup against Jones, Stenhouse, or Byron at Darlington but nothing of the sort was posted. He finished with a very impressive 7th and outraced all three of those competitors. DiBenedetto came in 20th at Homestead last year, topping his previous efforts here. I can easily see him “gapping up” again into the 12th – 16th place range on Sunday. Matt starts in the 22nd position, so he will need to steadily work his way through the pack to get there.
Don’t Lose Sight of Dillon
Austin Dillon sits on the underdog side of this matchup as a sneaky-good driver at Homestead. He has inched forward each year since his 2014 debut, finally cracking the Top 10 last year. DiBenedetto and Dillon are arguably on par when it comes to their cars and teams, so the question is whether Matt’s expected step forward is enough to overcome Austin’s handle on this track.
Both drivers have performed fairly well in 2020, despite stumbles here and there. Dillon outraced him in the four contests going into Wednesday night at Martinsville, where he tapped out early from heat exhaustion. A blown tire early in the race caused a collision with the wall that smashed the crush panel that buffers the car’s heat. Overheating is no joke, so you certainly won’t find me criticizing him for exiting the race. Ignoring Matty D’s rise would be poor handicapping, but Dillon is already a step ahead in some regards. I award Austin an edge when it comes to racing at Homestead, making this plus-money matchup our third position for the Dixie Vodka 400.
Room to Breathe
NASCAR heads to Talladega next weekend after a full week of recuperation from this compressed schedule. We’ll be back at it, looking for edges in the upcoming high-octane – and volatile – superspeedway action. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and check our NASCAR page to keep tabs on what we’re playing. Subscribe below for email alerts so you’ll never miss one of our features ever again. Best of luck this weekend!
