BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 9-7
JJ – 7-9
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 111-95-1
JJ – 101-105-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
A cliff note version of our picks for week 14 yielded some mediocre results as Yanni picked up a couple of games and JJ backed up a pair. JJ started the week out pretty hot nabbing the Bears while Yanni took the L with the slumping Cowboys. After that we had some differences that went both ways. We both were able to peg the Ravens and Giants and both missed on thinking the Panthers might give the Falcons a little bit more of a fight than they had. The most interesting split was on the Sunday Night game where Yanni played a hunch and square took the Seahawks where as JJ played with the Pros and rolled with the Rams, who rolled to a victory. Not a particularly awesome week with all of the games but a 4-0 weekend with our bet/posted plays is pretty awesome. Here’s what we’re thinking for this week’s slate:
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (5-8) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-2)
Thursday – December 12th – 8:20pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -16.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 61%
The Breakdown:
The world gets to watch Lamar Jackson again as he’ll take on the Jets in a Thursday night game that could get ugly if the Jets can’t keep it close early. After a nice little winning streak the Jets found themselves on the wrong side of the Bengals and needing a last second field goal to handle the Dolphins.
When you’re playing the Ravens your offense will need to be at it’s best to keep pace and that will require Le’Veon Bell at full strength after missing last week with the “flu”, which didn’t keep him from a career high 251 bowling the day before that missed game. Sam Darnold will need some help from Bell and despite his anger with Bell, head coach Adam Gase plans to feed Bell in an effort to keep Baltimore’s offense off of the field. Bell has yet to top 70 yards in a game rushing and he’s not likely to get that Thursday although it wouldn’t be surprising if he has a nice night as long as the Jets aren’t down by a bunch. Even if Bell gets a big workload, Darnold is going to need to make some throws if the Jets are going to be competitive in this game. Baltimore blitzes more than any team in the league which was bothering Darnold early in the season, but over the last five games he’s actually done really well against the blitz. The bigger concerns for the Jets offense has to be whether their patchwork and very average offensive line can hold up against the defensive line of the Ravens, and can Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder get open against the deep and talented secondary of Baltimore? You also can’t underestimate what the loss of tight end Ryan Griffin on IR does to Darnold in terms of his passing options.
It seems like every week when we breakdown the Ravens offense we say the exact same things about how well they’re playing. Nothing changes this week as the Jets are next up to try to put together the puzzle on how to stop Jackson and company. They’ll have to do so minus three starters including leader at safety Jamal Adams. The Jets have quietly been in the top three defending the run all season which is a bit of a surprise and a big credit to them. The problem in this game is this isn’t a conventional line up and attack type offense on the ground as the Jets are going to see formations they haven’t faced and can’t account for Jackson’s speed. With the injuries in the Jets secondary this could be a big passing game for Jackson in addition to likely passing Michael Vick’s season rushing record for a quarterback.
This game has all of the makings of a classic mismatch that could get out of hand. The Jets best chance is going to take a combination of some big plays, possibly in special teams, clean offense, and a lot of luck. You’d have to guess that John Harbaugh wouldn’t mind giving Lamar Jackson a little rest if possible with his banged up quad. The spread is a little too high for us to make an official play on, but we both like the Ravens to roll and may throw a few bucks of beer money on it for fun.
Yanni’s Pick – Ravens -16.5 (Ravens 38, Jets 17)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens -16.5 (Ravens 28, Jets 10)
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-12)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -10
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: New England 62%
The Breakdown:
All of a sudden the Patriots find themselves in a pretty important game against the 1-11 Cincinnati Bengals of all teams as they look to find a way to get their offense going. There’s rarely a shortage of drama with the Pats and this week’s newest “spygate 2” just adds to the intrigue of this year’s team. Is New England that desperate to get an edge that they’d risk stealing signs from the lowly Bengals?
We laid out a pretty good description of the Patriots offense last week before their game with the Chiefs and it was mostly accurate with the exception of they still couldn’t get a lot going running the football. More than likely they’ll take another crack at that against a Bengals team that is about as bad as the Chiefs are at stopping opposing runners. We pointed out that Chiefs DT Chris Jones would be the number one factor to watch putting pressure on Tom Brady in the middle of the defense and sure enough he disrupted things quite a bit. The Bengals will look to do the same with Geno Atkins and it’s not impossible to think that Brady’s struggles could continue again. New England’s offensive line continues to play very average in front of Brady and the few talented players the Bengals have reside on the defensive line so he could be under pressure as he’s been. Fortunately for the Pats, the back seven for the Bengals is very vulnerable so this should finally be an opportunity for their wide receivers to create some separation and help with the quick passing game. Falling behind to KC caused NE to go into a more strict passing mode, but they’ll really be trying to get Sony Michel going and if they can he could see a heavy workload for the first time in quite a while. The thing that might help this offense get on track more than anything is the potential for some short fields if their defense can help create some turnovers.
Speaking of that, good for Andy Dalton coming back after his benching to guide his team to a much needed victory and earn some redemption. With John Ross back in the lineup, Dalton was able to move the offense and no one benefited more than running back Joe Mixon. After not finding any room to roam in the first half of the season Mixon has really played well the last month or so which has kept the Bengals offense on the field and getting points. There are two big problems for Cincy as they look to build on those recent performances in this matchup. First, it’s not easy to run against the New England defense so Mixon is going to have a long day if the team doesn’t have a creative offensive plan to get him in space. Secondly, Dalton still had turnover issues even in the win and we know this Patriots defense is very opportunistic when it comes to taking the ball away from their opponents. With Stephon Gilmore locking down Tyler Boyd, Dalton will either need to force it to his favorite target or look elsewhere and the disguises New England are running could really cause him some problems, leading to some of those short fields we mentioned. There is one massive discrepancy in this ballgame and that is the Bengals offensive line versus the New England front seven. Even though the Bengals O-line has played a little better in the second half of the season, they are still one of the weakest units in the league. We expect that Dalton will be under a lot of pressure and forced into some big mistakes that will determine the outcome of this game.
KEY STATS: – The total has gone under in 10 of the last 14 Patriots
games
– The Patriots are allowing 12.9 points per game
Who would have thought the narrative in this game would be what it is, rather than a ho-hum opportunity for the Patriots to stomp the Bengals? Based upon what we’ve seen with New England it’s tough to fathom laying 10 points on the road even if it is against the team with the worst record in the league. After all, the Pats are having trouble putting 10 points up offensively without resorting to trick plays and some smoke and mirrors. The more certain thing in this game is that New England’s defense is going to come to play, especially against Cincinnati’s offensive line where they have an enormous advantage. New England is allowing an average of 12.9 points per game and that includes playing against some top offenses like the Ravens and Chiefs. Paul Brown Stadium will be pretty empty on Sunday with the majority of the colors being red and blue so it’s hard to imagine the Bengals really getting up for this game after securing their win last week. Our initial thought was to take the under however the fear of New England putting 30+ up in an “eff you” effort to get right led us to go with the Cincinnati Bengals team total under of 14.5. Being over the two touchdown mark is key as that allows for a couple of scores, including a potential fluke or defensive score, or an end of the game let up score.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -10 (Patriots 23, Bengals 10)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -10 (Patriots 26, Bengals 10)
vs. 
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-7) at DETROIT LIONS (3-9-1)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Tampa Bay 55%
The Breakdown:
Not a lot of of ramifications in the game between the Buccaneers and Lions with the exception of a lot of players and coaches potentially playing for their jobs. The Lions will get their third start from David Blough at quarterback while Jameis Winston is banged up with a hand injury, although he should play and has stated he’s just fine.
With Jameis Winston in the lineup there short be no shortage of fireworks and excitement although the Buccaneers will have to see if they can keep their offensive moving without Mike Evans who is out with a hamstring injury. It’s hard to know if this will be a true test as the Lions have struggled to stop anyone throwing the football so Chris Godwin and Breshad Perriman should still be able to get down field and rack up some yards. After Evans left the game last week O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate both saw an increase in targets so there should still be enough firepower for them to score points. This is also an opportunity for Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones to prove that the running game can help carry this team when need be versus an opponent that can be pushed around a bit. As always, we all know that the TB offense lives and dies with Winston, so let’s sit back and see how many touchdowns and interceptions he tosses and that’ll provide the answer to the winner and loser of this game.
The David Blough magic wore off pretty quickly after hitting a couple of deep bombs early in his first start against the Bears on Thanksgiving. It’s been quite a struggle for the youngster since but with Matthew Stafford still out and Jeff Driskel on IR the burden of carrying the team will continue to reside with Blough. One thing that’s helped Blough is the hard running of Bo Scarborough who will get some opportunities against what continues to be a pretty tough to run against Bucs’ defense. Blough is going to have to make throws down the field for the Lions to win this football game, something that will be a little tougher as one of his top weapons, Marvin Jones, Jr., went on IR this week. Blough will need time to throw if he’s going to make plays and avoid costly mistakes so keep a watch on how his offensive line protects against what’s been a good defensive line for the most part.
Bet this game at your own risk as there really seems to be no clear path to knowing what the right side is here. A couple of teams eliminated from the playoffs, coaches and players playing towards next year, some key injuries, etc. We did our best to cap this one and you can feel free to check our out leans, but you’re absolutely on your own if you want to bet it.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers -3.5 (Buccaneers 27, Lions 20)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers -3.5 (Buccaneers 24, Lions 17)
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5) at TENNESSEE TITANS (8-5)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -3
Over/Under: 51.5
Public Money Percentage: Houston 53%
The Breakdown:
The first of two meetings in the final three weeks between the Texans and the Titans that will determine who the winner of the AFC South will be, and possibly if they could get a second team into the postseason. Houston is coming off of a disappointing beating courtesy of the Denver Broncos while the Titans thumped the Raiders in Oakland.
For a team that has quite a few big superstars it’s becoming increasingly apparent how important Texans wide receiver Will Fuller V is in the production of their offense each week. Fuller’s ability to take the top off of a defense just seems to open everything up for everyone else and makes QB Deshaun Watson feel a lot more comfortable. As of Friday Fuller is questionable to play so that could play a big role in which direction this game goes and who we would take if we were betting it. With what we know, the Texans should still be able to have some success no matter who is playing based upon what we’ve seen out of the Titans in recent weeks. The emergence of Ryan Tannehill also seems to have morphed the Titans from a defensive team into an offensive group which has to be a little uncomfortable for head coach Mike Vrabel. After success early in the season running the football, the Texans have had trouble in recent weeks controlling the line of scrimmage. The loss of rookie Tytus Howard at right tackle plays a piece of that, and some of that is likely due to the lack of commitment in some tough matchups. You probably didn’t expect to hear this sentence involving the Titans, but Houston needs to run the ball to help keep Tennessee’s offense off of the field. In a game of this magnitude, Deshaun Watson needs to put on the cape and be a little bit of a superhero to will his team to victory. We could see Watson running more than we’ve seen most of this year, which would be a good thing for Houston in what is close to a must-win game.
Tennessee is looking to keep their offense rolling as they’ve been near the top of the league in all offensive categories since Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota. There is one really enormous potential issue for them in this game and that is the fact that running back Derrick Henry has not been able to practice this week which is not a great sign for his availability or abilities on Sunday. Henry has been completely dominant and as well as Tannehill has played, this offense is predicated off of what Henry can do in the running game to set up the pass. If Henry cannot go, this offense will look quite a bit different behind backup Dion Lewis. The emergence of A.J. Brown and improved play of Corey Davis allow the Titans to not be afraid of third and long situations, but make no mistake, this group needs Henry if they’re going to succeed.
This game is all about Derrick Henry and whether or not he’ll be able to give it a good go. If Henry is in the lineup and not limited, it seems like the lean needs to go to this very hot Tennessee team at home. That would all go out the window if he can’t go and you’d probably want to take the points in a tough and important divisional game.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans +3 (Titans 28, Texans 27)
JJ’s Pick – Texans +3 (Titans 24, Texans 23)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (5-8) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-4)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -10
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City Chiefs 51%
The Breakdown:
An AFC West showdown between the suddenly hot Denver Broncos and the surging Kansas City Chiefs. Drew Lock has provided a massive spark and raised some eyebrows as the potential answer at quarterback in Denver, while the Chiefs are hoping to put a little bit of juice into their somewhat slowed down offense.
Quarterback Drew Lock has another opportunity to wow John Elway and the Bronco Nation and he’ll look to attack a defense that played really well a week ago against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Lock put up really impressive numbers throwing for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns on the road last week. If you watched the tape, which we did, the actual eyeball test wasn’t nearly as spectacular. Not to be throwing shade on a rookie who lit it up in a game he wasn’t supposed to win, it’s just that we’d like to see a little more before we crown him the next, well Patrick Mahomes. It’s been the case all season for the Broncos and will be again Sunday that they need to try to get their running game going early with Phillip Lindsay. The last thing Lock needs is Steve Spagnuolo’s defense teeing off with a vicious pass rush, which should feature edge rusher Frank Clark back. One really nice thing Denver has found is that with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders, they have a legitimate number one receiver in Courtland Sutton. If the Broncos fall behind it will put a lot of pressure on Lock and Sutton so they’ll need to keep this game close.
Wins are understandably what matter most so it hasn’t really been pointed out that the Chiefs offense has been very average since Patrick Mahomes returned from his QB sneak injury. More than likely there isn’t much to be concerned of with Andy Reid and this talented group, however you have to think they want to find some of that explosiveness they had early in the season to build some momentum on their playoff run. Vic Fangio’s defense has played well all season so it will take some creativity from the Chiefs offense to make it happen. We do expect the Chiefs to find some advantages however as Denver is a team that is best when taking away the teams best weapon, usually via cornerback Chris Harris, Jr. With the abundance of skill position players that KC can turn to it’s hard to see the Broncos shutting down everyone. Early in the season the Chiefs offensive line was shuffling bodies in and out which explained some of their poor play, but with their lineup mainly back in tact, it’s kind of head scratching why this unit is performing a little bit better. As if often the case with an Andy Reid team, the lack of running presence could also play a factor in the pressure the QB is facing, although with the injuries at running back it’s hard to fault the Chiefs for throwing at such a high percentage as they want to limit and save Shady McCoy for the playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the ability to blow anyone out on any gameday so a double digit spread is really not that big a of thing for them. However, this Denver team is fighting hard and playing well and in a divisional game this could be closer than some people may think. If Denver can avoid falling into an early deficit they should be able to stay within the number. With that being stated, we’re not officially going against this Chiefs team, just for funsies this weekend!
Yanni’s Pick – Broncos +10 (Chiefs 28, Broncos 20)
JJ’s Pick – Broncos +10 (Chiefs 27, Broncos 17)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-10) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-11)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: New York Giants -3
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: New York Giants 51%
The Breakdown:
Looks like Eli Manning is going to at the very least have a shot to even up his career record back to .500 as he’ll get the start again versus the Dolphins on Sunday. He’ll face off against the continually undermanned Miami team led by their own long in the tooth QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The obvious repercussions for the winner and loser of this game will reside among the top five draft picks in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has done more to earn respect around the league in this losing season than he’s ever been able to do even in some winning seasons in his NFL career. The journeyman Harvard guy has single-handedly made this team competitive putting his body on the line in the process. We’d like to give you some analysis for this week about how his offensive line can help or one of his skill players will make something happen, except we can’t find anyone that we’ve ever heard of. I mean really, Patrick Laird is who this team is rolling with as their feature offensive player at this point in the season. The plus side of this predicament is they get a date against the New York Giants and their defense that has been abysmal all season long. To throw salt in the wound the team released veteran cornerback Janoris Jenkins Thursday after a Twitter mishap. When will pro athletes learn to turn off their social media accounts until retirement? That was rhetorical.
Eli Manning played a great first half in an inspired bid to upset the Eagles before an unproductive second stanza led to a Philly comeback in overtime. Much like the case with Fitzpatrick, Eli gets the benefit of playing against a pretty soft Dolphins defense especially versus the run. This will be the game where Saquon Barkley finally finds some room to run the football, which must seem like an eternity to him since the last time he had some daylight. Combine this with the chemistry that Manning found with rookie Darius Slayton and a healthy Golden Tate and Sterling Shephard and the Giants should be able to move the ball well. The Dolphins lack of a pass rush should also prove helpful for Manning as the extra time to throw is something he can benefit from as much as any QB in the league.
Both of these teams are a bit of a mess, however in two very different ways. The Dolphins simply lack the talent to win big-time football games, where as the Giants are just functionally broken in terms of their culture and coaching. This is likely one of head coach Pat Shurmur’s final three games as the leader of this football team. This is another game that you really need to be avoiding unless there’s something there you like that we aren’t seeing between these two draft hopeful squads. Go ahead and laugh out loud but picking against this Dolphins team just seems wrong in this game, despite some very favorable matchups for the Giants.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants -3 (Giants 24, Dolphins 20)
JJ’s Pick – Dolphins +3 (Dolphins 24, Giants 23)
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-7) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-10)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5
Over/Under: 39
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 52%
The Breakdown:
NFC East foes tangle in Washington as the Eagles try to keep their divisional hopes alive after a come from behind home win against the Giants. The Redskins haven’t been playing very pretty football, but they have been pretty competitive since Bill Callahan took over as interim head coach. Both teams will be missing some key players as they’re limping towards the finish line.
Saw what you want about Carson Wentz but his comeback effort with basically one healthy practice squad wide receiver was pretty impressive. Although Wentz will get the inconsistent Nelson Agholor back this week, it’s still a very thin and not too spectacular receiving corp. Doug Pederson will need a good gameplan focused on the running game, and the return of Jordan Howard should be helpful. Ryan Kerrigan won’t be on the field for the Redskins which hurts both from a production standpoint and as the leader of their defense. What this game will really come down to on this side of the ball is whether or not Wentz and the Eagles can generate enough offense with the lack of speed and weapons on the outside to outscore a poor Redskins offense. Going back to the importance of the running game, let’s see if the Eagles line can play better, in particular center Jason Kelce who has not been playing at the level we’re used to seeing with him. With Lane Johnson out at right tackle they’ll need the rest of the line to do their part and then some.
Somehow the Redskins have been winning despite some really bad numbers from Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. It is all about the wins as we’ve said so not piling on, just stating some facts. Unlike their offense, the Eagles defense is mostly healthy and with the exception of the debacle they had against the Dolphins, they’ve been playing markedly better in the last month. Haskins will have to rely on his own marginal receiving group to try to generate some offense. In the ground game, the Skins’ turn back again to Adrian Peterson to take the lead as Derrius Guice suffered another injury after getting things going recently. Look for the Eagles to put heavy pressure on the Haskins with their front four and possibly some additional pressure. The best way for the Eagles to help their short-handed offense is to give them some short fields to work with via turnovers and winning the field position battle.
This should be a game that the Eagles win with relative ease based upon where these organizations are. However the spread is relatively low and with good reason as this game is likely to end up a 60 minute slugfest. Best guess here is the Eagles figure out a way to win in a stadium that should have a fair amount of green in the stands.
Yanni’s Pick – Redskins +5.5 (Eagles 20, Redskins 17)
JJ’s Pick – Redskins +5.5 (Eagles 20, Redskins 19)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-8)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -6.5
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 63%
The Breakdown:
The offensive line of the Seahawks was absolutely overrun by the Rams last week making Russell Wilson look very mortal in a primetime game, something that almost never happens. As a result the Hawks’ fell behind and had to go into a dropback throwing game which is not their strong suit. Head coach Pete Carroll rarely makes mistakes two games in a row and you can figure to see an adjustment and improved play along the line against a Panthers team that has been getting ground up on defense. While Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in football, it’s Seattle’s Chris Carson who could be in store for a big day on Sunday as he’ll be shouldering the load with backup Rashad Penny on IR with an ACL injury he suffered in that defeat to the Rams. Carson is a hard runner and everything the Seahawks want to do is predicated on Carson’s ability to keep the chains moving and bring safeties down into the box. Since Ron Rivera was jettisoned out, it’s pretty apparent this Panthers team has very little fight left in it. Carson should wear down this defense and there may be a lot of players (not named Luke Keuchly) making business decisions when it comes to tackling him. If Carson has even mild success it should pave the way for a big day for Wilson throwing the ball as Carolina has been torched in their secondary both in the short passing game and with the deep ball. Wilson is still figuring out his corp of weapons but this should be a bounce back game for he and Tyler Lockett to get back on the same page as Lockett has pulled a disappearing act the last three weeks. Whether it’s Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon or anyone else, yards are to be had against this secondary and Wilson isn’t likely to struggle for a second game in a row.
When it comes to Carolina’s offense the big question mark is just who is Kyle Allen? Is he a quarterback they might want to build with or is he destined to bounce around the league as a backup? After a hot start, he has come back to reality with a pretty big thud that includes some very turnover prone appearances and not a lot of wins. No one is going to mistake this Seahawks defense with the Legion of Boom, but they have gone from a lower tier defense to one that can at least be counted on to not lose games for their team. The concern for Seattle as with any team playing Carolina is how are they going to slow down McCaffrey? Bobby Wagner is a likely future Hall of Famer at linebacker but he isn’t quick enough to keep up with CMC out of the backfield. Even though D.J. Moore has been playing really good football and producing Pro Bowl type numbers over the last six weeks this offense lives and dies with McCaffrey who has been at least contained, if not stopped, the past couple of weeks. It’s a pretty simple game plan for Seattle, keep McCaffrey’s big plays limited and hold him to around the 100 yard or so marker and cruise to a victory. It seems like the only way Carolina could find a way to win this is if McCaffrey can break off a few of those game changing 50 yard touchdowns and put the Hawks’ in an early deficit.
Yanni’s Pick – Seahawks -6.5 (Seahawks 32, Panthers 23)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers +6.5 (Seahawks 27, Panthers 23)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (7-6) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-3)
Sunday – December 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -4.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 54%
The Breakdown:
At the beginning of the season this looked like it could be a huge game in the NFC North as the league’s oldest rivals go at it for the first time since the season opener. It is still a big game for the Packers as they hope to hold their spot in the playoff race. The Bears are technically still alive, however at this point it’s more about playing out the season and evaluating and building towards next year.
A temporary reprieve for Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky after some much improved play from their offense the previous two games. They’ll need another good day in Lambeau in what could be a cold and windy day. Point of emphasis number one is figuring out how to run David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen versus the middle of the Green Bay defense which can be exposed. The Bears offensive line has expectedly been a big part of the recent turnaround for the offense as they’ve played well. Their tackles need to play well against the pass rush of GB as the big concern Nagy must have is Trubisky making critical mistakes under pressure of the rush.
The Packers continue to win at home where Aaron Rodgers is generally masterful with his offensive efforts. Last week was not a banner day against the Redskins, but the Pack did do enough to get up early and hold on for a needed victory. It won’t be as easy for Rodgers against the Bears as their defense continues to play solid football week after week. Losing Roquan Smith is a big loss as he was playing really well although a bright spot has been the way Nick Kwiatkowski has been filling in all season in the middle of the defense. The Bears have two pretty big problems they’ll have to find solutions to Sunday when you break things down. First, the running game for the Packers has been really strong behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams so they’ll have to slow that down minus some key cogs in the middle. Secondly, when the Bears are at their best they are creating turnovers and converting them into points. Rodgers is as good as the league has to offer at taking care of the ball having tossed only two interceptions this season, and is historically good at home. Rodgers knows the Bears well and the importance of coming away with a win in this game so you can expect him to play a pretty clean and efficient game.
Coming off of a close win last week against Washington, it’s tough to trust Green Bay to cover the spread against a better team in the Chicago Bears. Rodgers should do enough to make sure the Packers keep on their pace in the North but don’t be shocked if this ends up in a Packers field goal win.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears +4.5 (Packers 24, Bears 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bears +4.5 (Packers 21, Bears 17)
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-8)
Sunday – December 15th – 4:05pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings – 1
Over/Under: 45.5
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 60%
The Breakdown:
The Minnesota Vikings go to the left coast to take on a Chargers team that finally looked like many people thought they would last week in a drubbing of the Jaguars. The sudden improvement and win by the Chargers have moved this line from Minnesota -3 to Minnesota -1 as it’s apparent the general public still doesn’t trust Kirk Cousins on the road. Despite the discrepancy in records between these two teams, the overall talent level is actually pretty even when you look at the rosters from top to bottom.
Some good news for the Vikings as they’ll welcome back Adam Thielen to the offense opposite of Stefon Diggs on Sunday. The Vikings will need all of the firepower they can get as the Chargers have a healthy defense finally this season which proved really valuable against the Jaguars. Make no mistake, the Vikings are not the Jaguars offensively, however there is some pressure to win this game against that improved Charger defense which isn’t a walk in the park. As usual the Vikes’ will lean on Dalvin Cook and the run game to set the tone and will need him to produce. The Chargers rank 17th against the run and 4th against the pass so Kirk Cousins will have his hands full when it’s time to throw the ball. Cook should see a heavy workload as Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer undoubtedly will want to make this game into a bit of a dogfight. Although Cousins has played pretty clean football most of the year, the Vikings don’t want him in a complete dropback game with the Chargers pass rush potentially wreaking havoc on him. Dalvin Cook really needs to get 25+ touches in this game through the air and on the ground to make sure they can win at the end.
A big day for basically everyone on the Chargers offense last weekend as fans got a taste of what Philip Rivers can do in the right situation. Yes, the right situation also included the opponent being the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers started fast with Melvin Gordon and transitioned into an even faster and more explosive Austin Ekeler. Rivers wasn’t put into any tough situations other than moving the chains in the second half which he did pretty seamlessly. The Vikings will look to be physical with the Chargers as they like to do with their defense, although LA is a pretty physical team as well so that battle of the big guys could get pretty nasty. Zimmer will be focused on stopping Ekeler and Gordon which means Rivers will need to work Keenan Allen against the struggling Minnesota secondary. And even more important than Allen and Mike Williams out wide is tight end Hunter Henry over the middle and in the red zone. Henry had a quiet game against the Jags but should come up big against a team that has struggled against opposing tight ends throughout the season.
As mentioned, the public is all over the Vikings which is understandable as they are a very balanced and good football team playing against a team with just 5 wins. The sharp money is going the other direction on the Chargers as a healthier group playing at home and free must be a enough for them to see a Charger upset.
Yanni’s Pick – Chargers +1 (Chargers 24, Vikings 23)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -1 (Vikings 27, Chargers 20)
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-9) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-7)
Sunday – December 15th – 4:25pm
Spread: Oakland Raiders -6.5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Oakland 58%
The Breakdown:
The lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars flying across the country to play one last time in the magical Black Hole. Oakland fans don’t deserve this crap of having this team move but greed and money seem to fuel every decision the NFL makes these days. Back to the game, Gardner Minshew is finishing up the season and the mania that we saw early on has fizzled quite a bit as the team has struggled to score points or even be competitive. That’s clearly not all on Minshew who continues to fight hard and lead the team, it’s just pretty apparent that outside of Leonard Fournette and an overperforming D.J. Chark (who won’t be playing this Sunday) that this offense is sorely lacking in talent. Minshew has been under a lot of pressure and that bodes well for the Raiders edge rushing rookie tandem of Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell. Look for the Jags to try to hammer Fournette as much as they possibly can against what has been a very soft run defense for Oakland as they were shredded by a similar back in Derrick Henry last week. Head coach Jon Gruden was livid with his defense in that game and ended up cutting three veterans afterwards as he felt the overall effort was not up to where it needed to be. Expect a better effort from the defense this week and the easier matchup should help them play a little better as well.
Let’s not get it twisted here, the Oakland Raiders aren’t exactly playing high level and high energy football either. The Raiders offense actually made some nice plays a week ago, especially when you consider they were without their star rookie Josh Jacobs in the backfield. However, the offensive play was lost in the fact that the defense was shredded and Derek Carr made another crucial turnover, something that has really plagued him in the second half of the season. With Jacobs back in the lineup, Oakland should be able to move the ball pretty easily against what has become a Jaguar defense that flat out cannot stop the run. They were average at best early in the season at that, but between injuries and departures, and what surely appears like a lack of will, they are now getting overwhelmed. Jacobs is the type of runner that is both fast and physical so he will provide a lot of problems with this Jaguar defense playing less than inspired football for head coach Doug Marrone. The recipe for Derek Carr in this game is really simple. Do not turn the football over. If he were listening I’d repeat that for him as that’s really the only thing that would keep the Raiders from winning this game. With the home crowd being fired up it’s important Carr takes what the defense gives him and doesn’t try to do too much in the passing game. Run your way and dink and dunk your way to a victory in the final game in the Coliseum. Here’s the simplest recap ever: Oakland offensive line and Josh Jacobs manhandle weak Jaguars defense en route to a victory. Keep it simple D-Carr and everything will work out great this Sunday.
Yanni’s Pick – Raiders -6.5 (Raiders 29, Jaguars 21)
JJ’s Pick – Raiders -6.5 (Raiders 27, Jaguars 20)
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-7) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-9-1)
Sunday – December 15th – 4:05pm
Spread: Cleveland Browns -3.5
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: Cleveland 60%
The Breakdown:
The battle of the most recent college wonderkids at quarterback takes place in Arizona when Kyler Murray the Cardinals host Baker Mayfield and the Browns. This probably won’t be one of the more popular games of the weekend, but if you like offense these teams have the ability to throw some points on the board against each other.
Another week and more mild controversies in Cleveland whether it’s OBJ wanting or not wanting out of town, Baker Mayfield’s criticism of the training staff or whatever else. It seemed for a brief moment that Freddie Kitchens had this team on the path to respectability, until poof here come the Browns we know and love. This week they’ll face a Cardinals defense that continues to get shredded through the air so the previously mentioned drama team on offense could actually thrive if they’re focused. While the Cardinals have been decent versus the run, you can still expect the Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt tandem to pick their way through this defense enough to not make them one dimensional. Although even if they had to be one dimensional that may not be a bad thing for Mayfield and gang as OBJ and Jarvis Landy have big advantages in this matchup. The Cards’ released Terrell Suggs on Friday to pave the way for a youth movement, which seemed a little odd. That should only help the Browns in this game. Expect Mayfield to sling it around and the Browns to put up quite a few points on Sunday afternoon.
The Cardinals have slowed down a bit in recent weeks as some of their mid-season magic has worn off but they too should find some success offensively against the Browns. Their running back committee of Kenyan Drake/David Johnson/Chase Edmonds will find some room against a continually generous run defense. With the noted pass rush weaked, Kyler Murray should also find some time to survey the field and get the ball to his playmakers on the outside. Speaking of, this could potentially be Larry Fitzgerald’s last home game for the Cardinals which would be kind of said for old school fans. For the record, Fitzgerald is still playing at a level higher than a lot of receivers in the league so if he wants to come back to this team next year they really should find a way to make that happen.
Points should be aplenty in this game so if you like to play over totals this is a good game to take a shot with. As far as who’s winning this game, it’s kind of anybody’s guess. Cleveland is still the more talented team top to bottom, but the Cardinals are due for a win and this is a home game where they’ll have an opportunity to get it done.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals +3.5 (Cardinals 28, Browns 27)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +3.5 (Cardinals 26, Browns 24)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-7)
Sunday – December 15th – 4:25pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -1
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles Rams 84%
The Breakdown:
If you pay attention to any of the NFL power rankings that are released each week you’ll find the Los Angeles Rams climbing on that list and the Dallas Cowboys plummeting. They’ll face off in the late window Sunday afternoon with each needing a win to keep their playoff hopes in sight.
Sean McVay seemed to finally understand the importance of feeding Todd Gurley and the Rams offense finally resembled, well the Rams offense. It had to help that their receiving corp was fully intact and even though Brandin Cooks hasn’t gotten things going yet, there seemed to be receivers running open for the first time in a while. For the Rams to continue their momentum they’ll want to plan to feature Gurley again against a Dallas defense that is struggling to stop the run, particularly without Leighton Vander Esch at linebacker. Remember when Aaron Jones and the Packers came in and just bullied the Dallas defense earlier in the season? It’s not that exotic of a gameplan needed to figure out how to attack the Cowboys. Tyler Higbee has been a key part of the Rams recent offensive resurgence and he could be a very viable option in the play action game if Gurley can get off to a quick start. Speaking of, LA got off to a fast start against the Seahawks and part of the reason Dallas is on their current losing streak is they’ve been falling behind early taking away the strength of their team with their running game and offensive line.
On the subject of the Dallas offensive line, that high priced and talented group is clearly better at run blocking than they are at pass blocking. The Cowboys need to keep this a game where they can focus on the run and not get into a pure dropback and pass situation. We all know that Aaron Donald is going to eat up some blocking so it’s up to the rest of the Rams front seven to slow down Ezekiel Elliott. As always, the number of carries that Zeke gets probably will tell the story of how well the Cowboys are playing. Moving over to quarterback, the MVP type start that Dak Prescott had to the season has fizzled down in recent weeks as the lack of scoring for the offense has been a glaring issue as Dallas simply can’t overcome mediocre defensive play. The plus for the Cowboys with a home game is Amari Cooper has been a true number one receiver versus his lack of a presence on the road. The negative is he’s going to be blanketed by Jalen Ramsey so he’ll have to really work to get himself open. Other than a couple of absolute collapses against the Buccaneers and Ravens, this Rams defense has played about as well as any defense in the league, particularly since the acquisition of Ramsey. If there were ever a time for OC Kellen Moore and head coach Jason Garrett to come up with a creative gameplan, this would absolute be it. For Dallas to win this game, their offense is going to have to win in a shootout as their defense has not shown signs of being able to stop their opponents.
KEY STATS – The Rams are 9-0 Straight up in their last 9 road games
against teams with a losing record
– The Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games versus
teams that are favored
We can’t ever recall so much money not coming in on the Dallas Cowboys as they’re always one of the most heavily backed public teams. Over 90% of the cash coming in is on the Rams which would make anyone wary of some funny business happening. The fact is that is not just public money it’s also sharp money as it has moved the line from opening at Rams +3 all the way to Rams -1. If the percentage of money on LA scares you away from betting this game, we completely understand, but we’re taking the bait here. Dallas is flat out not a great football time, especially defensively, and the Rams defense should be able to keep their offense in check. It’s not often that we’d be backing a team that’s getting so much of the cash so we’ll call this an anomaly. The public has to win sometimes, right?
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -1 (Rams 26, Cowboys 20)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -1 (Rams 24, Cowboys 14)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (4-9) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (11-2)
Sunday – December 15th – 4:25pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -11
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 59%
The Breakdown:
Fresh off of their instant classic and monster win against the New Orleans Saints the 49ers return home to play a surprisingly fiesty and still talented Atlanta Falcons team. San Francisco needs to avoid a letdown to grab another win as they continue to battle through some tough injuries on both sides of the ball.
There aren’t big stakes at play for the Falcons, but you still have to feel for the way their season has gone as it seems like a lot of injuries and bad luck have plagued them. Their offense will see that again as they’ll have a healthy Julio Jones and Austin Hooper ready to go at wide receiver, just in time for when they have to put Calvin Ridley on IR with an abdominal injury. In some positive karma they’ll be going up against a 49er secondary that is actually missing three starters of their own including Richard Sherman on the corner. We say this a lot and it’s worth repeating, the Falcons can match up and beat nearly any team at the skill positions. It’s the battle in the trenches that has been their downfall and that will be the case again this week as their offensive line will have to try to slow down the stacked San Francisco defensive line, something they likely will not be able to do. Devonta Freeman is coming off his best game of the season against a team that could not stop the run and he was still unable to crack the 100 yard mark. He’ll most likely be a sacrificial lamb who gets bottled up on the way to the quarterback in this defensive scheme. Matt Ryan has played tough all season long through some really good games and some really bad ones and he’ll likely give it a game effort Sunday, it’s just hard to see him having a lot of success, other than potentially some volume garbage yards if the Niners are ahead and ease up.
All year long it’s been a back and forth between Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida on who’s the featured back of the running back committee in San Francisco and suddenly we have a new number one back as Raheem Mostart has been on fire the last two weeks. That really just speaks to the fact of how well this offensive line is playing and the scheme of Kyle Shanahan’s offense and blocking. You could plug pretty much any decent running back into this system and they’d have a lot of success. Take your pick this week as all three backs are healthy and more than likely they’ll all see some work and find some running room. Coming off of his fantastic performance in New Orleans Jimmy Garoppolo returns home in a game where he may not be asked to do quite as much and we should see a little more of the “game manager” Jimmy G. That is unless Shanahan wants to fine tune the passing game with Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel gearing up for the playoffs. George Kittle is always there and figures to make some plays like the amazing conversion leading to the win last week when needed.
This game seems like it can only go one of two ways. Either the Falcons will battle tough and this game will come down to the wire much like the Niners game with New Orleans did, or San Francisco is going to get up big early and absolutely pummel them. With a spread hovering around -11, we can’t in good faith bet on the 49ers even though it’s possible they win this game by 30. In pure principal, we’ll lean toward the Falcons and see if they can keep it close.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons +11 (49ers 31, Falcons 24)
JJ’s Pick – 49ers -11 (49ers 34, Falcons 17)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (9-4) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-5)
Sunday – December 15th – 8:20pm
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Over/Under: 36.5
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 57%
The Breakdown:
The Buffalo Bills find themselves on Sunday night for the first time in nearly ten years with a chance to sew up a playoff birth for just the second time in the last two decades. After a really nice offensive performance on Thanksgiving Day against the Cowboys, the Bills were unable to get much going against the Ravens despite having a chance to tie/win the game at the end last week. They’ll try again versus a Steelers defense that has been carrying the team all year and is really playing well in recent weeks. The Bills offense is predicated on the running game as they’ve been riding rookie Devin Singletary. It’s not easy to pound away at the Steelers with their defensive line and linebackers who are extremely physical and a deep units. Josh Allen is going to have to make plays and make them in the passing game, something he has struggled a bit with when he can’t also use his legs. The Bills are not a huge screen team, but they’ll need to use some screens and misdirection as they’ll be unlikely be able to line up and straight outphysical the Steelers. For both sides, and probably more so the Bills, not turning the ball over is going to be key. Expect a lot of punts in this game and for these offenses that’s not the worst thing in the world.
Duck Mania is in full force as the gritty play of Devlin Hodges has already won over the Black and Yellow faithful. Mike Tomlin is getting and deserves a lot of credit for having the Steelers in the playoff chase despite the obvious loss of QB Ben Roethlisberger but a slew of other injuries on the offense including James Conner and Juju-Smith Schuster. Good news for the Terrible Towels as both Smith-Schuster and Conner look as though they’ll return to action. which is good news against the fast and opportunistic Bills defense. Young Devlin Hodges is going to have his challenges against the Bills throwing the football as they’ve consistently shut down opposing quarterbacks and receivers. For Pittsburgh to win this game they’ll need to establish the run and much like the Bills, take care of the football. The Steelers offensive line is big and we know aggressive and it’ll be a big battle at the line of scrimmage against rookie Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips and the Bills edge rushers. A player to keep an eye is Diontae Johnson who really played well last week against Arizona and will likely draw Levi Wallace in pass coverage who has been the one weak link in the Bills secondary. Pittsburgh figures to try to muscle their way through the Bills defense rather around it which is the right plan in this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers -1 (Steelers 20, Bills 17)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers -1 (Steelers 24, Bills 17)
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-3)
Monday – December 16th – 8:15pm
Spread: New Orleans Saints -9
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 56%
The Breakdown:
The Colts have a tough trip to New Orleans where the Saints defense was just shredded by the 49ers in a two point loss. As much as they’ll want to put a better showing together, they’ll be doing it without a couple of key cogs on their defensive line as it looks like Sheldon Rankins will join Marcus Davenport on the inactive list leaving their D-line rotation a little thin. The Saints have been stout against the run all season but the Colts and Marlon Mack may be able to take advantage a bit of their weakened front. Jacoby Brissett has played pretty well on the road and he’ll need to be on his game in what promises to be a very loud Superdome. T.Y. Hilton looks like he’ll be 50-50 to play and he always has a big impact on how the Colts offense can perform. Without Hilton this team becomes much easier to defend and the field becomes less stretched. Frank Reich has done a great job putting his team in position to win all season, but at some point the injuries and absences on the offensive side of the ball are just too much to overcome which is what seems to be happening now. Reich’s team will be prepared and they’ll have a smart strategy for the game, they just may not have enough talent to pull it off.
Drew Brees was electric against the Niners putting up stats we used to see from him three and four years ago accounting for 6 total touchdowns. That was no small feat against a tough San Francisco defense and just proves that when the Saints need to they can still score with the best of them. The Colts defense has been good this season although they seem to often miss out making the crucial plays that determine wins and losses. That’s not the spot you want to be in when playing against Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Indy focuses their defense on stopping the run first so how they can hold up against Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be something we’ll need to watch. The bigger question is can Brees, Michael Thomas and company have the success through the air that they had last week and attack one on one opportunities when they have them? Jared Cook will likely miss the game which could be bigger than it might sound as he had really started to come on over the last month of the season and had a pair of TDs before leaving the game last week with a concussion. This seems to be the case every week as we know Michael Thomas is going to catch his 10 passes, but who else can step up at receiver for the Saints? It won’t be surprising for the Colts to keep this one somewhat close, it’s just hard to see them finding enough offensively or defensively to steal the road win in prime time.
