Previous Week Plays – 2-1-1
Season Record – 12-13-1
WEEK 7 RECAP:
Finishing a week at 2-1-1 isn’t the worst thing in the world of sports betting, except when things should have worked themselves out to finish at 3-1. As we’ll remind ourselves, that’s why it’s called gambling and why it’s never over until the final whistle, or when the sportsbook cashes your ticket. We started the weekend early on Thursday night cruising to a victory with the Chiefs despite the early exit of MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. We knew we were going against the sharp money with that one and really liked our strategy of riding the KC defense against an overvalued Bronco team and that worked out perfectly. Our teaser bet was another nice win as the Saints really dominated the Bears and the 49ers were able to pull out three field goals en route to getting that covered. The Niners’ didn’t cover ATS so the extra points with the teaser was certainly needed. Having the under 44 in the Bengals and Jaguars game looked like it was going to be a winner pretty much all the way through until the end. The teams had combined for just 19 points going into the fourth quarter until Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton tossed three untimely interceptions allowing the Jags’ to pile up back to back to back scores late in the game. With 37 total points and 1:30 left in the game, a few roughing the passer penalties aided the Bengals down the field and to a score with just seconds left to push the total. That one really hurt, although as a push, it could have certainly been worse. The loser of the week was a serious loser as Philadelphia was absolutely manhandled by the Cowboys on Sunday night. We actually considered hedging out of the bet once the injury reports came out and Dallas was basically at full strength but we decided to stick with our play and still felt the Eagles would be able to make it a competitive game. With a beatdown like the Eagles took, we’ll remind ourselves that it still only counts as one loss.
WEEK 8 PLAYS:
Normally by this point in the season there are certain trends with teams and players that you can use to help guide your prospective wagers. The inconsistencies of the majority of the teams in the league, along with injuries to key players like Patrick Mahomes have made this year a little trickier than some seasons in the past. We found a couple of ATS picks that might scare the heck out of some people that we feel pretty good about and a pair of teasers that line up well with key numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Chicago Bears
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Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) ATS(1-4-2) at Chicago Bears (3-3) ATS(2-4)
Sunday October 27th
1:00pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -4 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
We’ll be the first to admit that having a wager in a game involving the Chargers or the Bears kicks up the anxiety level to another notch. We all know that scared money doesn’t make money so we’re inclined to follow the matchups and trends and take a stand in what’s realistically a do-or-die game for both of these teams. Chicago has the homefield advantage and is a healthier squad, while the Chargers have a clear advantage at the skill positions on the field. Both have been playing poorly against the spread and in general so something has got to give.
There was a comment made on Sunday Night Football that last week’s game with LA and Tennessee was the most “Chargerist” of Charger finishes as the team blew a sure tie and multiple wins and ultimately came away with the loss in one of the more bizarre finishes you’ll see in an NFL contest. That one sentence symbolizes our entire play on this game which we’ll elaborate on in a minute. Let’s first take a look at this Chargers offense that has been “clunky” to say the least since the return of Melvin Gordon. Anthony Lynn and staff have yet to figure out how to work the backfield and Gordon has struggled averaging only 2.3 yards per carry and actually admitted that his holdout really hindered where he and the team are this season. It sounds crazy when you think of going against the Chicago defense, but this could be a great spot for both Gordon and Austin Ekeler as the Bears have really had issues stopping the run as the loss of Akiem Hicks is really hurting their muscle in the interior. The Chargers also get a big boost as OT Russell Okung will be back in the lineup providing a nice improvement and veteran presence on the line. It’s hard to know exactly how effective he’ll be as he’s getting his legs under him, yet you’d have to believe anything would be an upgrade over what they’ve had on the left side of their line. Assuming the Chargers can get at least a little bit going on the ground the table is set for Philip Rivers to make the plays needed that you expect from a quarterback with his longevity and tenacity. The Bears thrive off turnovers so this is a spot where Rivers needs to take what the defense gives him and not force anything that can set the Bears up with a short field.
If you’ve been following the Bears at all this year you might be a little surprised to find that they’re 29th in total offense and not dead last in the league. (Don’t forget there is a team in Miami and the Jets were starting a guy named Luke Falk for a while). They’ll try again to make some things happen against a Los Angeles defense that has not looked nearly as good as their 11th overall ranking would lead you to believe. There is absolutely one certain key for the Bears on offense against LA and that is they must get their running game working to get their offense going over all. Fortunately for them the Chargers have been even worse at stopping the run coming in at 27th overall, so this should give Chicago a chance to get physical early. We’ve seen Mitchell Trubisky struggle mightily and that seems to be exaggerated when they don’t have any semblance of a running game. What better way to slow down the Charger pass rush than by establishing a power running game in the first half?
KEY STATS – The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
You’ve got to know when to selectively make risky plays in NFL wagering and there is no question that whichever team you check the box with here is a little risky. We mentioned we’d revisit the sentence of last week being the most “Chargerist” thing of all in their wild finish against the Titans. That is exactly why we’re going to play the number and take the 4 points with Los Angeles. This game has “Charger” written all over it, which means they’re going to be in it until the end. We don’t have a crystal ball but this just seems like one of those finishes with LA misses a field goal at the end to win or something along those lines. Before you tail on this wager you may want to make your own decisions based on the Chargers injury report as Melvin Ingram and Keenan Allen are both questionable in addition to several players already ruled out. We’re closing our eyes, crossing our fingers and hoping for a Charger cover Sunday.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers +4
Chicago Bears 22, Los Angeles Chargers 20
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
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New York Jets (1-5) ATS(2-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) ATS(4-3)
Sunday October 27th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -7 (EVEN)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
Gardner Minshew weighed in on ESPN airing Sam Darnold’s seeing ghost comments and he fully supported Darnold and the Jets showing how tight the NFL fraternity of quarterbacks really is. This week the two will face off in Jacksonville as eyes will be on Darnold to see how he rebounds, while Minshew wants to be certain to keep his job with the coming return of veteran Nick Foles.
It was tough to imagine the Jets offense being worse than they were with Luke Falk as their starting quarterback, but we saw first hand what Bill Belichek and the Patriots defense can do to a young signal caller. If it weren’t for some continued hard running from LeVeon Bell the offense would have been completely non existent. Fortunately for Darnold and the Jets they’ll have a little easier go of it against the Jaguars who have been pretty average on defense, especially against the pass. That’s not to suggest things will be easy for NY as the Jags’ have proven they can still collect sacks in bunches and create timely turnovers in key situations. The first thing the Jets need to do is play better on the offensive line, both to keep Bell going strong and to give Darnold the time he needs to actually see 11 men on defense which we imagine will make him play quite a bit better. With Jalen Ramsey now in LA this Jaguar defense has to alter their style just a bit and it’s proven to be a bit of a challenge in adapting. In addition to Darnold needing to bounce back this could be a game where we see Robby Anderson re-emerge as a downfield playmaker helping his young quarterback. The Jets have capable skill position talent lead by Bell so let’s see if their big men can step their play up and give them a chance to beat a solid Jaguar squad.
It’s somewhat ironic that the first year rookie QB Gardner Minshew has looked more like a poised veteran than Darnold who has 16 career starts. That’s why there is so much excitement and Minshew Mania in Jacksonville as the Jags are hoping they’ve found their franchise guy for the future. Minshew has settled back to reality a bit the last couple of weeks but he’s still playing really good football for a rookie or even in comparison to a lot of other QBs in the league. The New York defense will look to rattle Minshew and slow down suddenly hot Leonard Fournette in a game they believe they can win. When you look at what the Jets offense has been this season it’s a minor miracle that their defense is actually ranked in the top half in the league. It’s likely that the Jets will be able to hold Fournette down as they are pretty stout against bigger backs, which will put some extra pressure on Minshew and the wide receiver group. D.J. Chark continues to show his ability and while the Jaguars don’t have the most recognizable group at WR they have enough quality to give Minshew options when he throws. One unnoticed thing that has hurt the Jags is the season ending loss of their starting TE James O’ Shaugnessy who was a favorite security target for Gardner Minshew in short passing situations. The Jets built their defense on strenght at the defensive line position and this is the type of game where those guys need to earn their money as how they perform against the Jaguars offensive line could be the ultimate difference between a win and a loss.
As if taking the Chargers on the road to cover wasn’t frightening enough, we’re now going with a New York Jets team that was thoroughly embarrassed and didn’t even look like they could compete with some college teams on Monday night. This game is the classic NFL overreaction based on one bad beating seen nationally by NY against the best team in the league. The Jaguars should win this game at home and they most likely will, but are they good enough to be giving anyone a touchdown? You may need to shop or pay a little more juice to get the 7 points as it’s 6.5 on some sites, but we found +7 for -115 on a couple of sites. This will be a pretty telling game for where Sam Darnold’s mental toughness sits and we’ve believe enough in the kid to take the touchdown and see what happens.
BetCrushers Take: New York Jets +7
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, New York Jets 16
Teaser Bet
Denver vs. Indianapolis and Carolina vs. San Francisco
vs.
and 
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Denver Broncos (2-5) (3-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) (4-1-1 ATS)
Sunday October 27th
1:00pm
CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers (4-2) (4-2 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (6-0)(4-2 ATS)
Sunday October 27th
4:05pm
FOX
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -6 (-105)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
It’s somewhat rare to get two of the better teams in the league playing at home and less than a touchdown favorite against less than stellar competitions, yet that’s exactly what we have with our teaser play. The Colts looked sharp getting some key players back from injury and welcome a deflated Broncos team to town, while the 49ers are coming off of a shutout in the rain and have a little tougher task against a red hot Carolina Panthers squad. It’s never a slam dunk betting against a quality opponent, however the six point spreads for these are just too hard to pass up teasing to a pick em’. As a side note – you may want to shop doing a two-team parlay with these teams on the moneyline as you may be able to get odds more along -110 rather than the -120 teaser.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: INDIANAPOLIS +1 and SAN FRANCISCO – Pick
There was some strange hype around Denver a week ago that we weren’t buying into and were able to cash in as they laid an egg against a resurgent Chiefs team even after losing their leader in the first quarter. Joe Flacco took over the role of Kirk Cousins as new QB whipping boy for the week as his horrendous play in primetime was called out by Troy Aikman in the booth and anybody with a Twitter account. While it’s reasonable to figure the Denver offense will have a little more life and Flacco will rebound with a stronger performance, it isn’t exactly easy sledding for the guys in orange traveling to Indianapolis. The Colts defense got their leader back in Darius Leonard and played a really sound game against a team that had been scorching on offense. Denver traded away local favorite Emmanuel Sanders and it appears they’re unofficially giving up on this season, which probably is a wise decision. One of two things tend to happen when that takes place: Guys fight for their jobs and their coach and play a heck of a lot harder and better, or they start thinking about where they’re going to be taking a vacation after Christmas. We won’t know that until the game is played, but either way this is a game the Colts defense should dominate in. It will be tough for Denver to get their running game going which will put extra pressure on Flacco who now has one capable receiver on the outside rather than two. As has been the case with the Denver offense regularly this season, you might see a lot of three and outs and punts.
It finally came to light after Sunday that Jacoby Brissett is playing really good football at the quarterback position, and is clearly not just a game manager. He is making good decisions and accurate throws into tight windows and spreading the ball around open receivers after going through his progressions. Just like Flacco he’ll have to be on his game Sunday as Denver has played well against the pass all season. After a hot start Marlon Mack has slowed down a bit and this looks like the type of game where he might be able to regain the momentum he had after the first couple weeks of the season. The Colts offensive line continues to play well and they match up nicely against the Broncos defense. Eric Ebron came through with an amazing touchdown reception last week and this could be a spot where he and Jack Doyle are key contributors again with T.Y. Hilton likely matched up with Chris Harris, Jr. These teams actually share some similarities and the difference here comes down to a few things by our analysis. First, Jacoby Brissett is clearly a better quarterback than Joe Flacco and the Colts are just simply a notch better at nearly every position on the field. Throw in the homefield advantage for Indy and this is a game they’ll find a way to win.
The Carolina Panthers find themselves in a really perplexing situation as face of the franchise Cam Newton (well maybe co-face with Luke Keuchly) has worked his way through his rehab stint and is resuming football activities. Kyle Allen has not lost as a starter and while his overall talent level may not be that of Newton, clearly his leadership and decision making are at least at that mark if not quite a bit higher. Head coach Ron Rivera said he wants to be smart and take his time with Newton so Allen will look to remain undefeated facing his toughest assignment to date, a road tilt with the 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The Panthers offense has been really productive as Christian McCaffrey seems like the surest bet in the league to perform at a ridiculous level every single week. It will be interesting to see what Niner’ defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has in mind to slow down McCaffrey and to try to rattle Kyle Allen. Even if McCaffrey can make some things happen on the ground or through the air, in order for the Panthers to put up serious points they’re going to need something from one of their receivers or Greg Olsen. Carolina’s offensive line has played much better this year and they’ll need to play their best game of the season to go against the deepest and most talented defensive line in the league. Cliche battle of the trenches game, the winner of that match could very well decide the outcome.
As mentioned in the other game of the teaser the Broncos traded veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders over to San Francisco as the Niners’ are going all in as you might expect for a team with some much going for it right now. Sanders may not play at all or will be very limited this weekend so don’t look for him to be a factor. The piece that is interesting here is it tells you that SF felt they needed to get Jimmy Garoppollo some weapons on the outside as they aren’t confident in what they have there currently. That’s equally evident with the slowdown in production from TE George Kittle who is seeing a lot of attention in the passing game. The biggest opportunity in this game for the San Francisco offense is going to come from the legs of whichever of the seemingly dozen running backs Kyle Shanahan is utilizing. In all seriousness that’ll be mostly Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman and both should find success against what has been a pretty soft Carolina defensive front. Luke Keuchly is again among the league leaders in tackles which is equally reflective of his amazing sideline to sideline talent, and the fact that the Panthers have ball carriers getting through the first line with far too much regularity. If the running game does what it should for SF in this game life will be a lot easier for Garoppollo and company.
Key Stats – The Colts are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games
– Jimmy Garoppollo 14-2 SU as starting QB in San Francisco
A teaser is always as much about picking numbers as it is picking jersey names and this game is a perfect example. Carolina is one of the hotter teams in the league and Denver should be fired up after the beating they took in their game and from the media last week. These are potentially tough games for Indy and San Fran to cover ATS, but they certainly both should be able to hold serve and win these outright at home. This is a truly measurable numbers play and the odds are definitely in our favor here. No guarantee that it will be a winner, however if you want to tag along with this play you’re definitely playing with really great odds.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Indianapolis +1 and San Francisco pick
Colts 24, Broncos 20 and 49ers 26, Panthers 23
Teaser Bet
Seattle vs. Atlanta and Tampa Bay vs. Tennessee
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and 
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Seattle Seahawks (5-2) (3-4 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6) (1-6 ATS)
Sunday October 27th
1:00pm
FOX
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Seattle Seahawks -7 (-105)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) (4-2 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)(2-4-1 ATS)
Sunday October 27th
1:00pm
FOX
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: SEATTLE -1 and TAMPA BAY +8.5
Some high flying birds on the west coast and some grounded flyers on the east coast collide in a game that should have a lot of scoring at the very least, if not a lot of competitiveness. Each team is coming off of a loss, and the Seahawks are looking to rebound, while the Falcons are simply trying to avoid continuing in the downward spiral that they’ve been mired in all season.
There were some uncharacteristic mistakes and turnovers made by Russell Wilson a week ago in a rare home loss to the Ravens. He’ll be looking to rebound against the Falcons defense that has made every quarterback they’ve faced this season look like a Pro Bowler. Wilson will cause the usual headaches for Atlanta, however it’s Chris Carson that could be in line for a big day in the running game. Carson’s steady play has given the Seahawks the balance they’ve lacked since Marshawn Lynch left the organization and and will play a big part in their game this week. Seattle shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball as Tyler Lockett should continue his productive season and Jaron Brown and D.K. Metcalf could both find some nice opportunities as well. One thing to watch for the Hawks’ is how Wilson will respond to losing Will Dissly at tight end. It’s only been a week since Dissly was lost to IR, however it did seem to have some impact on the offense particularly on third downs and in the red zone. That could end up being one of the quieter, yet more costly injuries that a team has to deal with this year.
The Falcons offense is certainly not the reason the team is 1-6 even though they have only played what most would consider average football. This week is not shaping up well for them for a variety of reasons. First and foremost it’s very possible that Matt Ryan will not be able to go in this game as he’s dealing with an ankle injury. With the season basically already over there doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason to rush him back out onto the field if he’s not ready. If Ryan can’t go this offense could really go into neutral or possibly even reverse especially if the offensive line can’t do better than what they’ve shown the past couple of weeks. Speaking of going in reverse, the Falcons started their fire sale unloading underappreciated Mohammed Sanu to the Patriots on Tuesday in a move that makes sense, but certainly doesn’t help their team in the interim. If you want to try to find a bright spot it’s that Calvin Ridley should get some more attention in this offense, something that hasn’t happened much this season. It’s way too early to call Ridley a bust, particularly as he’s had some big games as a Falcon, however, you have to think the Falcons organization and most people in the league expected more than what he’s delivered so far this year. I suppose if we’re mentioning bright spots we should also bring up Austin Hooper who continues to put up really productive numbers and make plays every week. The Seahawks have struggled defending the tight end position so this is one area where the Falcons actually have an advantage on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, this may be the only area where they’ll have a clear advantage in the matchups. It was brought up that Seattle struggles on defense against mobile quarterbacks, as evidenced by what Lamar Jackson did to them last week, but they won’t have to worry about that problem no matter which Matt is playing QB for Atlanta.
In year’s past one of the things you could really count on in the NFL betting world was the following. The Falcons and Seahawks were probably the biggest example of teams that were great at home and not so great on the road. You’d be crazy to take Seattle at Atlanta no matter what the spread was and who was playing quarterback. This ain’t a couple of years ago and these teams aren’t the same, nor is their home/road discrepancy. The Seahawks tend to be one of those teams that are always in a field goal fourth quarter type game, but don’t be shocked if they take it to the Falcons this week.
There’s a such thing as being on the cusp of elimination even this early in the season and both Tampa Bay and Tennessee fall into this category as the percentages of making the playoffs fall drastically down with a loss based on where they currently sit. The Titans change at quarterback results in a win a week ago, while Tampa is hoping they won’t need to make a quarterback change in the near future.
Anytime TB quarterback Jameis Winston is involved in a play it has the chance to go sideways in a bad way with interceptions and turnovers. The Buccaneers breakdowns are almost always the same: Take care of the football and come away with a win, turn it over and leave with a loss, and sometimes a really ugly loss at that. Winston is coming off one of those “oof” games where he turned the ball over repeatedly which would make anyone question betting on his team, especially on the road against a quality defense. We’re looking at the Jameis rollercoaster and banking on the fact that he’ll rebound with a more stable performance versus a team that seems to play everyone close. The fact of the matter is when you take Winston out of the equation, Tampa Bay is far superior on the offensive side of the ball and will look to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to continue to make big plays for them. One thing you can say about Winston is no matter what has happened he’ll still push the ball downfield, which as a fan you generally like, although it can be nerve wracking with money on the line. O.J. Howard will be sitting this game out as he may be in another uniform before the trade deadline, but this is actually a positive for Winston and the Bucs offense as we’ll see Cameron Brate a lot more who Winston has always had a good connection with.
Just as we have the standard breakdown with Tampa Bay, you can look at Tennessee in a very similar light. Get Derrick Henry and the running game wearing down the opposing defense and good things tend to happen. The Tampa Bay defense has been extremely stingy defensively against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry and leading the league at an impressive 68 yards per game. If this trend can continue that will put the game in the hands of now starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who won his first game after taking over for the benched Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is no doubt one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league as he has some nice experience, a solid skill set, and some wins during his stint with the Dolphins. The fact of the matter is that Tannehill is really just that, a backup quarterback and stop-gap player, not a true franchise player. Can he beat Tampa Bay in a home game if he plays a solid football game? The answer to that is yes he absolutely can and Vegas seems to think that he will. The bigger question if you tease Tampa Bay is can he beat a good defense by more than a touchdown? Our answer to that is we certainly don’t think so. This is actually a great spot to play Tampa Bay as an underdog on the moneyline as it’s very possible that Tampa squeezes out a road victory here. If you don’t have the confidence in doing that, take those extra six points as you may need them.
Key Stats – The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games
The confidence level in this teaser is weighted more heavily in the direction of the Seahawks so if you can’t get behind the inconsistency of the Bucs’ we certainly understand we’re your coming from. The Seahawks seem all but automatic on their side so maybe look for another partner if that’s where your head and heart are. We’re going to go with the fact that Ryan Tannehill doesn’t seem like he should be able to beat a sound TB defense by more than a touchdown.
