Previous Week Plays – 4-0
Season Record – 8-5

WEEK 3 RECAP:

They say when a team loses they can’t wait to get back out to have a shot at playing better, redeeming themselves, and ultimately winning again. The BetCrushers are no exception to that philosophy as we were chomping at the bit for week three to get started after an unlucky and disappointing week two. We spent hours evaluating matchups and agonized over every play, eventually narrowing down seven potential plays to four. The result: A clean sweep 4-0 winning all four matchups with relative ease. It’s not only great to go undefeated for the weekend, but it’s even more gratifying when the breakdowns come to near perfect fruition as well. The only disappointing thing this week is the three additional plays we had stressed over all covered as well. No complaints though as we’ll gladly take the strong week and turn our attention forward.

We started the 1:00 games with a play we had locked in early at +7 taking the Lions against the banged up Philadelphia Eagles. Even though the line had dipped to +5 we still encouraged the play as this seemed like it would be a FG game that could go either direction. The Lions took it to the Eagles early with a kickoff return, and then really dominated the entire game. This Lions team is competitive every week and the Eagles just couldn’t overcome having several key players on the shelf. We were then able to hit our two team teaser with Minnesota cruising to an easy victory and Kansas City having their game well under control as well. Next we went to our under total play on the Sunday Night Football contest with the Rams and Browns. We pegged it as a defensive struggle which it really turned out to be. Lastly, the Bears completely dominated the Redskins on Monday night as Washington had no homefield advantage or ability to block the Bears defense. Here’s to hoping we can be as locked in for week four.

WEEK 4 PLAYS:

Divisional matchups are a plenty for week four as this is traditionally a week when teams and bettors really start to find their identities. New England has a relatively low spread for a change as they travel to Buffalo in the headliner of the divisional battles as each team looks to avoid their first loss. For the first time this season, the spreads seem to be “normal” or expected as the home favorites overwhelm the road favorites finally. We’ve pinpointed some things we’re going to be betting.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) ATS(0-3) at Green Bay Packers (0-2) ATS(3-0)
Thursday September 26th
8:20pm
NFL Network, FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -5 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)

Injuries to some of the faces of the NFL have taken over the headlines early in the season as Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are all currently on the sidelines. Although the Philadelphia Eagles still have their signal caller, they have been the team most decimated by a slew of injuries throughout the first three weeks drastically altering the talent and depth of the team. At a time when they could really use a bye week (or maybe a game against the Dolphins), they instead get the assignment of traveling to Lambeau Field on a short week coming off of a tough loss to face the 3-0 Green Bay Packers. Overall, we’re not very high on GB despite their nice start, and we have Philly as a potential NFC champion, however this one instance we’re circumstances will dictate this wager.

There are 3 main reasons we believe the Eagles are a Super Bowl contender. First, we expect a big season from Carson Wentz as he gives this team a chance to win every week. Second, with the different weapons they have on offense, they have the ability to create matchup problems to where it’s impossible to take every athlete away defensively. And third, this defense had enough good depth on the defensive line and just enough acceptable talent in the secondary to keep them in and win games. Well, here we are heading into week four and the second and third reasons we had pegged are out the window, at least for this game.

Give the Eagles some credit as they were able to move the ball a bit despite the absence of it’s top two wideouts Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Don’t buy into the hype of how magnificent Green Bay’s defense is, but it is true that they are improved from a year ago. This is more about Philadelphia’s injuries than it is the defense of Green Bay though. The explosiveness and options just aren’t there right now. Philly is optimistic that Alshon Jeffery will be able to give it a go Thursday, but reports are he is not moving that well. Another thing that has to be a little concerning for the Eagles is the inability to get a running game going. Miles Sanders has looked like a rookie and Jordan Howard has been average in his limited work. It’s a little surprising that Doug Pederson hasn’t leaned a little more on the veteran Darren Sproles to give the offense a more dynamic look. The Lions game plan last week was pretty simple, they were going to double Zach Ertz and force someone else to beat them. You have to think the Packers will take a cue from that approach to take Ertz out of the game.

Flipping to the Packers offense, this is the type of situation that Aaron Rodgers loves. It’s a short week and he’ll be going up against some players without a lot of experience and a downgrade in talent at some key positions. Their offense hasn’t been overly explosive recently, however that has the potential to change Thursday. Ronald Darby was the best of a poor cornerback lineup and he’ll miss the game following his injury in the Detroit game. The Eagles only have three corners on their roster at the moment so they’ll be having to make some roster moves just to have enough bodies to go. Davante Adams will look like a top receiver this week and you can expect a big game from him. The losses of Malik Jackson and Timmy Jernigan on the defense line have really limited what the Eagles can do defensively as well. Their depth is depleted and where stopping the run game was a foregone conclusion previously, it’s now something the Eagles really have to work towards. That puts even extra pressure on the secondary to support and tackle.

Key Stats – Eagles have been outscored in the first half of all three games this season and by over double 47-23 in that stretch.
Packers have outscored their opponents 45-23 in their first three games

The line quickly moved from GB -4 to -5 and climbing in this game as the public sees some of the same things that we do here. However, we’re taking a slightly different approach to our bet. First, let’s recap what we have here: The Eagles have to travel to one of the tougher places to play on a short week. If you follow betting or football in general, you know that home teams have an even bigger advantage than usual with the Thursday night games. Philly is badly banged up at really key positions. Aaron Rodgers plays much better in Lambeau than he does on the road. What’s probably the biggest key to this game is the Eagles notoriously slow starts. This has been a bad pattern for them going back to last season. They’ve been utterly dominated in the first half of games and have had to play from behind quite a bit. There is a good chance that Green Bay can cover the 5 points, but there is also a good chance that the desperate Eagles can find a way to cover the spread. In fact, here’s an interesting nugget: The underdogs are 3-0 straight up on Thursday Night Football this year. It would seem like that trend will come to an end Thursday, but a field goal game is certainly a possibility. For that reason, we feel strongly that a great play in this game is the Green Bay Packers first half point spread of -2.5. It’s -3 on many sites, but you can buy it down under that key FG number for -120 or -125 which in this case is well worth it. A fast starting Green Bay team and a slow starting Philadelphia team coupled with the uphill battle that the Eagles need to face should lend itself to a first half cover. Bet it confidently.

BetCrushers Take: First Half – Green Packers -2.5 (GB 17, PHI 10)
Green Bay 27, Philadelphia 23

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

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Dallas Cowboys (2-0) (2-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-1) (1-1 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
8:20pm
NBC
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under 47 (-110)

The Sunday Night Football showcase boasts two teams that could potentially be playing each other again when the playoffs are underway in January. The week four showdown between the Cowboys and Saints will probably look a lot differently than any future playoff game would as New Orleans is still adapting to the absence of their quarterback Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints offense did a very impressive job last week against the Seahawks making plays to get them a win in one of the toughest stadiums in the league to visit. The Cowboys kept rolling against the JV team of the league as the biggest headline in their game against the Dolphins was Dak Prescott discussing Wendy’s spicy chicken nuggets in the offensive huddle.

One of the reasons the Saints were successful against Seattle was a fantastic performance from their defense which had Russell Wilson looking confused and inaccurate, which doesn’t happen very often. It’s pretty common for a defense and complimentary players to step up for a back up quarterback in their first game without their leader. Things generally tend to calibrate themselves in the second game as the emotion and adrenaline evens out. That Saints defense which was aggressive, fast and forcing turnovers will need to have the same performance against a Cowboy team that has had little trouble scoring points thus far. You can safely say that Dak won’t have a lot of time in the huddle against this group to discuss fast food or Chunky Soup or yogurt or anything else. He will be looking for a fourth strong game in a row to continue to put the pressure on Jerry Jones for a new mega deal. While Dallas has made a living on offense with big plays in their first three games, they’ll probably need to be a little more paced and diligent in this game. Their lauded offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott will need to move the chains a few yards at a time, which they should be able to do against the Saints front seven.

Sean Payton set the Saints up with a really creative yet simple to execute gameplan in their first game without Drew Brees. As a result Teddy Bridgewater played well and Taysom Hill was able to be involved as well. The plan wisely utilized Alvin Kamara who is a nightmare to try to defend particularly in the passing game. The other problem the Saints will have this week is that there is now some film to prep against what the Brees-less offense looks like. Dallas should be able to study how they’ll be attacked, and they’ll actually need to be on the attack to put pressure on Bridgewater and that offense. Their athletic linebacking corp should be able to keep Kamara somewhat in check and their secondary can match up with Michael Thomas at a minimum. The biggest key for this game is how well the Saints can protect Bridgewater in the pocket. The Cowboys need to get pressure and be the team creating turnovers, which we believe they will.

Key Stats – The Saints are 1-7 in their last 8 games ATS.

It’s always a little risky going against the Saints in the Superdome particularly when you’re a team laying points. Let’s go ahead and get it out there that the Saints have the obvious advantage in the coaching department as well. Last year these teams played a tight defensive game that ended with the Cowboys walking away with a 13-10 victory. This game is shaping up to have a similar feel although there should be a few more points scored this time around. Both of these teams are pretty complete, however Dallas has the advantage defensively and at the quarterback position (Until #9 returns). We’ve had some great success early on laying small points on the road with good teams, here’s hoping that trend continues.

BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Dallas Cowboys 24, New Orleans Saints 20

Teaser Bet

Kansas City vs. Detroit and New England vs. Buffalo

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (3-0 ATS) at Detroit Lions (2-0-1) (2-1 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
1:00pm
FOX
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 54 (-110)

New England Patriots (3-0) (2-1 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (3-0) (2-1 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
1:00pm
CBS
New Era Field – Orchard Park, NY
New England Patriots -7.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)

Our first teaser checks off the boxes that you look for in two-team six point teaser with one big exception. We’re banking on two road teams which is a little shaky when you’re playing the percentages. Overall, it’s still a very solid play as we do check the boxes of having two great teams (arguably the two best in the league) and two great quarterbacks who simply need to win against teams that they are better than.

TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY -.5 and NEW ENGLAND -1.5

The Patrick Mahomes hype is 100% legit, end of story. We wondered a bit if his child-like backyard football style might catch up with him a bit this season? Safe to say that it hasn’t and most likely never will. He is flat out magical running the offense and give some huge credit to Andy Reid for finding the right compliments and being aggressive and creative with the play calls. That recipe has this team rolling offensively, and don’t look now but the defense has been pretty average. Normally average wouldn’t be something to be excited about, but for this team that’s all this offense needs. One really fun thing is the addition of LeSean McCoy as his versatility and experience are perfect for what this team needs.

The Lions have been pretty darn impressive as well other than one bad quarter against Arizona in their opener. We predicted they’d be a feisty and competitive bunch and they’ve been that and then some. It’s pretty clear the NFC North is the best division top to bottom in the league. Matt Stafford looks as comfortable as he ever has and the Lions offense has it’s own arsenal of weapons to lean on. The big challenge for the Lions in this one is going to be slowing down the complimentary skill players of the Chiefs. Darius Slay should be able to match up with one of the Chiefs receivers and the Lions zone can limit Travis Kelce. It’s after that where the concern comes in. Whether it’s Demarcus Robinson, rookie Mecole Hardman or backs out of the backfield there is just too much to stop. This game will be a shootout like most of the Kansas City games are and expect the Lions to stay competitive. At the end of the day, as it has been through three weeks it’ll be too much Kansas City offense and they should leave Motown with the win.

The other half of the teaser is the divisional showdown between a pair of unbeatens as New England goes to Buffalo, a team that they have owned during the Belichek/Brady era. New England has been unstoppable thus far, both offensively and defensively and look to continue a streak that has seen them win 11 of their last 13 in Orchard Park. (One of those losses was a Jimmy Garropollo start). The Bills will need their defense rattling Brady early if they’re going make this one interesting. Fortunately, they have a talented, deep and veteran unit that knows what it takes to put pressure on the New England offense. The bigger issue for the Bills will come on offense as the Pats defense has been rock solid holding opponents down, albeit not the best offenses in the world to date. The most critical thing in this game for the Bills will be protecting the ball as they’ve managed to win against lesser teams despite having some bad turnovers. If they do that against this New England team it could end up being a rout. This game will more than likely stay around or below the point total as the defenses will be on display. While it’s certainly possible that this game is a close one, the Bills are not ready to leapfrog a Patriot team that looks as strong as ever.

Key Stats – Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in it’s previous 10 1:00pm games
– New England has won their past 7 games at Buffalo

Anytime you can get a teaser with the two best teams in the league basically just needing a straight up win, we’ll take it.

BetCrushers Take: Tease Kansas City -.5 and New England -1.5
Chiefs 34, Lions 30 and Patriots 23, Bills 20

Teaser Bet

Cleveland vs. Baltimore and Minnesota vs. Chicago

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Cleveland Browns (1-2) (1-2 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (1-2 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
1:00pm
CBS
M & T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-115)
Over/Under 46 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings (3-0) (2-1 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (3-0) (2-1 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
4:25pm
CBS
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -2.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under 38.5 (-110)

The numbers and the matchups line up for a second two team teaser as two divisional contests make for what should be exciting Sunday afternoon viewing. Cleveland heads to Baltimore as both teams look to get back into the win column after tough losses in week three. Minnesota heads to Chicago for a game that promises to deliver a lot of bruises and hard hits as these squads look to keep their momentum going after impressive wins. Both of these games should be pretty close and homefield advantage could be the difference.

TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: BALTIMORE -1 and MINNESOTA +8.5

Baltimore and Lamar Jackson were unable to handle the expectations of the football media losing in Kansas City last weekend. (No shame in that). They return home to face a Cleveland team that also struggled to win a visible game at home against the Rams. The Ravens have historically owned the Browns, as have the other teams in the AFC North, and with the Steelers reeling they believe this is still their division to win. This game is a critical early season battle that will either establish the Ravens as the team to beat, or show the league that the Browns are worthy of the preseason fanfare they received. For the first time, Cleveland has more star appeal than the Ravens despite players like Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown outperforming Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry and squad. In this game however, the skill positions are not the key at all. Baltimore should dominate the battle of the big men which will ultimately be the difference in this one. If that’s not enough convincing for you, take a look at how these teams perform at home and on the road. While every team is better at home than away, the Ravens are substantially better in their own stadium and the Browns are historically bad on the road. In fact, the Browns have only won 1 game on the road in their previous 27 contests as an underdog. Read that last sentence again. Yes the Browns are not the laughing stock they’ve been, but that’s still a pretty amazing statistic. Finally, in what could be a close divisional match, coaching could play a big role. John Harbaugh continues to be a solid head man while Freddie Kitchens is struggling and already hearing the criticism. This may take 60 minutes to get there so be patient, but the Ravens will find a way to win this game at home.

If you like defense then you’ll want to check out the game that has the lowest over/under total of the week between the Vikings and Bears in Chicago. As of week four, Green Bay is the favorite to win the NFC North and the Vikings and Bears have the same odds leading us to believe they are pretty similar in terms of talent, ability and potential. In actuality the Vikings are a better team than the Bears as an overall group even if their defense may be slightly behind the Bears vaunted unit. As with the other part of the teaser homefield is important here so the Bears may come away with a victory in this one. As far as the outcome this feels like a complete toss up to us however. We will probably flirt with the Vikings on the moneyline at some point if the return payout is strong enough. The amazing thing about this teaser though is we don’t need a win at all, we simply need a very good team to not get completely blown out. Getting 9 points with a team that’s even at least with the opponent in what should be a low scoring game is an absolutely uncontested layup. Getting to the X’s and O’s there will be a lot of running in this contest and defenses will be hitting. It’s hard to imagine either team doing much offensively, and in particular the Bears. When they’re on offense there is nowhere on the field where they have a meaningful edge or matchup that they can exploit. We’re not counting on the Vikings to light up the scoreboard here either, they just need to do enough to keep this game close and get a few big plays out of their big three of Cook, Thielen and Diggs. After a thorough breakdown there is really only one possible way that the Vikings can’t cover the 9 points with this teaser and that’s if Kirk Cousins and the offense turn the ball over four or five times. Granted, with Cousins on the road against this defense it’s not impossible, which is why we’re not telling you to bet the farm on this one.

Key Stats – The Browns are 1-26 in their last 27 road games as an underdog. The Vikings are 16-4 in their last 20 games when having 20 rushing attempts or greater.

One other note for this one is the Bears were a little dinged as Monday night’s star Taylor Gabriel looks like he’ll be out and defensive end Leonard Floyd was also in a walking boot. We’re going to assume that this game has a lot of punts and field goals and is close at the end meaning our 9 points should hold up just fine. We’re all about the purple for this teaser.