Previous Week Plays – 2-0
Season Record – 33-31-1
WEEK 16 RECAP:
The lines for week 16 weren’t ones that we had a lot of fondness for and as a result decided to only roll with two official plays. That strategy worked out well for us as had we stretched our plays we wouldn’t have had a profitable weekend. As it stood, we were able to cash both of our plays with relative ease and set ourselves up to have a winning regular season if we can have a good week 17, and hopefully have some good momentum heading into the playoffs.
We really liked the over in the Bengals/Dolphins game as we thought Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton would both be able to attack very suspect defenses in South Florida. Fitzmagic had little trouble as he was on fire from the beginning tossing three touchdowns in the first half more than doing his part. Dalton and the Bengals got enough going for the total to go over in the third quarter which unfortunately made us tune out of that game. Apparently we missed one of the most miraculous comebacks from Cincy to get their game to overtime before losing. While missing out on that fun kinda stinks, we cashed our ticket and that’s what we mostly needed to happen. Our teaser wasn’t much of a sweat either as the Bills played New England within one score as we expected the Chiefs made easy work of a defeated Bears team on Sunday night.
WEEK 17 PLAYS:
Week 17 always requires a slightly different tact when it comes to handicapping as figuring out which teams have something to play for and which coaches plan to play or rest starters is obviously critical in outcomes of games. If you’ve followed us at all you know that like many handicappers we tend to fade the public and more often than not go the opposite direction of where the public money is headed. This week we’re taking a little different approach and placing some “square” bets in selective situations. To put a full disclosure out there, if you’re thinking of tailing this weekend, just know that we’re kinda going the amateur route, so it’s a little bit of a crapshoot.
San Francisco vs. Seattle Seahawks
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (12-3) ATS(8-6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (11-4) ATS(7-7-1)
Sunday December 29th
8:20pm
NBC
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, WA
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
Just in case you weren’t sure about the importance of the game between the 49ers and Seahawks it’s been flexed to Sunday Night Football with seeding implications abound. San Francisco is coming off of a tough rebounding win against the Rams, while the Seahawks are in a bit of a downward spiral losing at home to the Cardinals and suffering some big injuries along the way. The winner of this one will be playing a home playoff game and possibly enjoying a bye week, while the loser will go on the road in the wild card round.
The 49ers have looked a little different the last few weeks as they’ve been involved in some tight shootouts with the offense looking a little shaky at times. If you’re looking for good news it’s that no matter who they have lined up at running back they’ve had pretty good success moving the ball on the ground. It looks like Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostart will be carrying the load into the playoffs as Matt Breida’s fumbling issues have taken him out of the rotation. Seattle was scorched by the suddenly red-hot Kenyan Drake so you know that Kyle Shanahan will be committed to running the football and look to overpower a struggling Seahawk defensive group. The Hawks’ do get a boost on their defensive line as Jadeveon Clowney is set to return from the core injury that sidelined him the past two weeks. Clowney is an obvious key for this team so they should be improved both against the run and the pass as he’s played well in the biggest games this year. Overall the 49ers should be able to control the line of scrimmage (on both sides of the ball) so it will take some big plays out of the Seattle secondary to slow down San Francisco on Sunday. The Niners’ passing game has gotten a little one dimensional with the return of George Kittle, and while that isn’t a bad thing, it would probably bode well for them to get Emmanuel Sanders and their receivers a little more involved. The most obvious part of this game still goes back to the SF offensive line and their ability to control the trenches.
The big news this week for Seattle is the return of Marshawn Lynch as he’s signed with the team he spent his best years with to relieve the fact that they are down the top three backs on their depth chart. Lynch has apparently been training for the past month and claims he’s ready to go, but you have to wonder just how much he’ll be able to give them this first week back? Steve Young brought up a good point on Monday Night Countdown when he stated that “Beast Mode” may give the team a spark more mentally than physically. Seattle needs as much of a spark as they can get and they’ll hope that between Lynch and the 12th Man homefield that it can give them the boost they need. The amazing thing is how little homefield advantage has help the Hawks’ this year as they have been pushed around in their own building, by inferior competition. A team that used to have perhaps the biggest advantage with the 12th Man, is suddenly and inexplicably just another team at CenturyLink Field. The cupboard isn’t completely bare though as they still have magician Russell Wilson leading the offense. Wilson struggled last week as his running game was at a standstill and he couldn’t get on the same page with his receivers for much of the game. He’s been one of the best ever at not having back to back poor performances so he’ll likely bounce back on the national stage Sunday evening. And while he’ll likely try to carry the load for his team, the odds are going to be stacked against him just a little too much against a 49er team looking to get back to their dominant defensive roots. Over the first half of the season Wilson was locked in (no pun intended) with wide receiver Tyler Lockett who was having a Pro Bowl type season. Lately however, Lockett has been a near non-factor in the passing game. With Josh Gordon no longer on the roster Lockett and rookie D.K. Metcalf are really a two man show when it comes to making plays on the outside and down the field. There’s another area of concern in Seattle as left tackle Duane Brown left last week’s game as well and the extent of his injury is still under evaluation. If there is any team in the league you don’t want to be down your key offensive linemen it’s the San Francisco 49ers. Nick Bosa has been a little quieter in recent weeks but this game could line up for him to make a really big statement.
KEY STATS: – The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against
an NFC West opponent
– The 49ers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games
Laying points on the road against a good opponent is not the best long-term strategy for building your bankroll betting. Certain instances where you can find matchups that give you a distinct advantage are out there for the occasional taking even if the public and “square bettors” are also on them. This sure seems like one of those times as pretty much anything you can find in this matchup favors the visiting 49ers. (Yes, Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than Jimmy Garrapolo). We booked this one early for even money at -3. We’re putting this play out there at -3 as that is still available on several books, although some have moved it to -3.5. Russell Wilson should be able to make this game somewhat competitive, but when it’s all said and done the 49ers will be too strong on both sides of the ball and should get this victory by more than the key field goal number.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -3
San Francisco 49ers 29, Seattle Seahawks 22
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (12-3) ATS(8-6-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) ATS(7-7-1)
Sunday December 29th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under 47 (-110
The Bengals provided an awesome finish a week ago in a meaningless game (minus draft status), and they’ll look to do the same in their season finale against the Cleveland Browns. With all due respect to the Dallas Cowboys, the Browns have been perhaps the most disappointing team this season and they’ll limp across the finish line hoping to get a win against their in-state rivals.
It’s hard to point a finger at just one area of frustration for the Browns and their offense this season as they flat out haven’t gotten it done to the level that they needed to. It’s always possible in a game like this that a team with personalities as strong as the Browns mail it in and start planning their offseason to-do lists. We’re going to maybe foolishly give this team the benefit of the doubt that they’ll actually take an environment with little pressure as an opportunity to play loose and well in the last game of the season before potentially large changes will occur. You could make the case that the Browns have some matchup advantages against most teams in the league, but this is absolutely the case against the Cincinnati defense. One of the few bright spots for Cleveland this season has been the play of their running backs, Kareem Hunt, and the league leader in rushing, Nick Chubb. Chubb has played well all season long and with the rushing title there for the taking, he should put on a nice performance against a weak Bengals run defense. Hunt will also make the most of his opportunities as his hard running style will help wear down the linebackers for Cincy. When we see the final box score for this game, it’s not out of the question that the Browns could hit the 200 yard mark if they want to stay committed to the ground game. In the passing game, Baker Mayfield has to be excited to throw the ball on this team watching how Ryan Fitzpatrick absolutely carved them up just a week ago. Mayfield and Odell Beckham, Jr. have not been as electric as most people thought they would, however if Beckham puts an effort forth he’ll be able to make some plays in this ballgame.
For most of their game last week the Bengals offense was very disappointing, unable to sustain drives and put up points against a Dolphins defense that was allowing over 31 points per game. Their miraculous come from behind in the final 33 seconds and 16 points made things look a lot better on the scoreboard and in the stat sheet for Andy Dalton and company. The Bengals have some nice matchups of their own against a weakened Browns defense as Joe Mixon should have a nice game of his own. Mixon was surprisingly unable to make things happen in Miami, although it was mentioned that he was fighting a flu bug which would certainly explain that. Assuming Mixon does a capable job on the ground, things should line back up for Dalton as the Browns have been unable to generate consistent pressure without Myles Garrett in the lineup. Tyler Boyd was banged up a bit last week but he’s looking to finish what’s been a good personal season for himself in a positive manner. The Bengals offensive line has been better since the return of Cordy Glenn at left tackle so let’s keep an eye on which team wants it more in the trenches in a game that means not a whole lot.
KEY STATS: – The Browns are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against
AFC North opponents
– The Bengals are 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games
The BetCrushers will be the first to put a disclaimer on this wager and admit that betting on this game is not a move that most professionals would make. Will the Browns mail it in so Freddie Kitchens gets a quick pink slip after the game? Which team will have the bigger crowd showing up for the game? Will either coach be playing some younger players to evaluate talent or are each desperately searching for a win? These are all variables that paint a picture of staying far away from a wager here, but hey what fun is that? We’re willing to throw at least a bit of beer money, if not a full unit on this wager for the simple fact that these two teams are not currently close in talent/matchups.
