Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 24-25-1
WEEK 12 RECAP:
The BetCrushers found several plays early last week that were of great interest and actually could have and should have posted more than the five that we did. No need to be greedy as we got the 4-1 week that we were hoping for and desperately needing. With the spread of the Thursday night Colts/Texans game seeming just about right we decided to make the Colts a teaser play so they’d have plenty of points which worked out exactly as we hoped. Having liked the Seahawks straight up, having them as a second half of a teaser getting over a touchdown was of very little risk and closed that teaser quickly with a win. Expecting an onslaught of offense from the Browns against the Dolphins steered us towards the over total which sailed past early in the third quarter making for another pretty easy cover. Our lone loss of the weekend was an against the spread play taking the points with the Denver Broncos who ultimately never got any offense going against a tough Bills defense on a windy day. Our final two plays were in the Sunday and Monday night games where we had loaded up on the 49ers and the Ravens and had some rocking chair covers with both.
WEEK 13 PLAYS:
It took until week 13 of the season before the card of spreads were focused around field goal type games. About half of the games have a spread of roughly a field goal which means you can plan on a lot of close games this weekend. Coming off of a good week twelve we’re searching for another strong week as we’ve continued to be inconsistently up and down week to week. Just three plays Sunday, a couple of totals and one teaser featuring a favorite and an underdog.
New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals
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New York Jets (4-7) ATS(5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-11) ATS(4-7)
Sunday December 1st
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
New York Jets -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)
Similarities are plenty between the Jets and Bengals as they square off Sunday in a game that means little other than resume building and momentum for next season. Sam Darnold and Andy Dalton both wear number 14, struggled early in the season, are back taking the reigns for their respective teams, and have that glorious ginger hair. While the Jets are clearly trending upward, the Bengals re-installed Dalton in an effort to simply try to avoid going 0-16 in 2019.
Who are these suddenly explosive and dominant New York Jets on offense? You can start with the obvious, and that is the improved play of Sam Darnold at the quarterback position. Granted he hasn’t exactly been lining up against the top defenses in the league, but you have to give the guy a lot of props for rebounding from what many were ready to label bust material into one of the highest performing QBs over the past month. Darnold has benefited from recently paid Ryan Griffin’s solid play at tight end and the equally quality performances of his receivers Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson. The one constant all season for the offense despite not having the best statistics in the league has been the play of Le”Veon Bell at running back. Bell will be the tone setter in this matchup with the Bengals who continue to struggle stopping the run. In reality, they’ve struggled to defend the pass as well, but the Jets key to victory Sunday will be Le’Veon Bell’s ability to control the time of possession and score in the red zone. The Bengals have been susceptible to big plays against opposing offenses and Darnold and the Jets have proven that they can take advantage when the opportunity presents itself.
Having Dalton renamed as the starting quarterback in Cincinnati makes very little sense other than the fact it gives the Bengals the best chance to score points and win. In order for the Bengals to have a shot Dalton is going to need to play a good game, not just clean, but he’ll need to make some plays. The Jets quietly have the number one rushing defense in the league so even though RB Joe Mixon has put up some solid numbers the last few games, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do much against the Jets front. It’s no secret that the Bengals offensive line is horrible and the Jets are going to spend a good amount of time in the backfield. This obvious advantage for the Jets is the reason why Cincinnati needs Dalton to make some plays in the passing game. Dalton’s return should help wideout Tyler Boyd and he could see a lot of targets on Sunday. With Mixon likely limited, how well Dalton and crew can convert on third down will be another storyline. And the redzone touchdown versus field goal dynamic will also be pivotal.
KEY STATS: The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 Jets games
This has the feel of a “must-win” for the Bengals if they want to avoid futility, even though they do have a game with the Dolphins in week 16. If the Jets can get off to a fast start the Bengals could pack it in, however if they don’t this game could end up being very interesting. We’re expecting a fair amount of points in this game as the Jets offense has really been rolling and the Bengals flat out cannot stop anyone. The re-insertion of Andy Dalton at quarterback should help the Bengals stay in the game as he’ll be eager to prove himself and is a large upgrade over Ryan Finley.
BetCrushers Take: Over 40.5 – Total
New York Jets 27, Cincinnati Bengals 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) ATS(3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) ATS(5-6)
Sunday December 1st
1:00pm
FOX
TIAA Bank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville Jaguars -1 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
Perhaps the best part of sports betting is you can find reason to tune into a week thirteen game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars. The most interesting piece of this contest is how the respective quarterbacks will play as they look to cement their status with their teams for the 2020 season. After the Thanksgiving weekend and with very little to play for, will either of these teams be really focused on the game on Sunday?
If you’re a fan of the Buccaneers you’re obviously not thrilled with their record and missing the postseason (not officially yet). However, this team is exciting to watch as Jameis Winston continues to drop back and sling it all over the yard. Last week he torched the Falcons as Chris Godwin put up a monster stat line for you fantasy gurus. Earlier in the season the Jaguars might have been one of the teams that could matchup well against TB by locking Mike Evans up with Jalen Ramsey and sliding A.J. Bouye on Godwin forcing Winston to look elsewhere. With Ramsey now taking his baggage to the Rams, the Bucs’ should find their way to yet another successful day throwing the football. If there is one thing you can say about Winston as a quarterback it’s that he’s really never scared and thinks he can make any throw. While that often blows up in his face, it also helps his team score a lot of points. We pretty much know what we’re going to get from Winston, it’s the running game that might make the difference in this ballgame. Jacksonville has been absolutely gashed in recent weeks on the ground as this team is built as a pass rushing group and cannot stand up against physical runners. Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber have been a true committee in recent weeks and both have the strong downhill style of running that can give the Jags’ fits. When you get to this point in the season, you can kinda figure out who’s still playing and who isn’t based upon who wants to stick their neck in there and try to make a tackle on a 200 plus pound back running through the hole. Don’t be surprised if the Jags get down early for Jones and Barber to each have some nice days running.
Nick Foles is taking a lot of heat in the local Jacksonville media as the fanbase clearly favors Gardner Minshew and his backyard style versus the button upped and more cautious Foles. Look for Foles to be a little freer with his passing as he’ll likely need to air it out to both keep up with the Tampa offense, but also to win over the support of the organization after his huge payday in the offseason. He’ll also be forced into passing mode as Leonard Fournette will struggle against what has been a stout TB running defense all season. Head coach Doug Marrone wants to be a run-first team, except the game script and matchups Sunday are really going to make that a tough task. It’s not all doom and gloom in this game for Jacksonville as they have their own advantages with the skill positions versus the Bucs’ secondary that has been exposed repeatedly. If you haven’t paid attention to the Jags you’ve missed the fact that D.J. Chark has been performing at a Pro Bowl level at wide receiver with both Minshew and Foles under center. Chark’s great play has also helped relieve some of the pressure off of complimentary receivers Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley who both could be in line for a lot of targets. One bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for Jacksonville has been the play of their offensive line which has graded out above average in a season where that was thought to be a weak spot. If they can keep the pressure off of Foles he will have his best game so far as a Jaguar.
KEY STATS – The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 meetings
between the Buccaneers and Jaguars
– The total has gone over in 9 straight Buccaneer games
The Jacksonville Jaguars organization is a bit of a mess and it sure seems that their focus is more towards the offseason and shaking things up than winning football games. The public is all over Tampa Bay as 70+% of the cash is currently on the Bucs which we can’t argue with. However, with that big of a margin, we’re hesitant to wager directly on TB despite the fact they should win this game. Instead we’re opting to play the over basing that on the trend of TB being the best over team of the season and the total has gone over in nine straight games. Yes, like flipping a coin and landing on heads 9 times, tails is due to hit, but we’re going to ride this streak for another week based on the matchup. The weather looks like it will be perfect in Jacksonville so throwing the ball won’t be a problem. The Jags have struggled against the run and pass since shipping off Jalen Ramsey so Tampa should be able to throw up their usual 30ish points offensively. Nick Foles has his compliment of wide receivers for the Jaguars and a soft matchup is exactly what he needs to get some throws into the end zone. If you want to take Tampa Bay, you’ll likely get an easy win, we’re just mixing it up a little simply to avoid being on such a high bet public game.
BetCrushers Take: Over 47.5 Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Teaser Bet
Green Bay vs. New York Giants and Minnesota vs. Seattle
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and 
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Green Bay Packers (8-3) (7-4 ATS) vs. New York Giants (2-9) (4-7 ATS)
Sunday December 1st
1:00pm
FOX
Metlife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (8-3) (6-5 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)(6-5 ATS)
Monday December 2nd
8:15pm
ESPN
Centurylink Field – Seattle, WA
Seattle Seahawks -3 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
We’ve got some NFC teams lined up for a two team teaser taking one in the direction of needing a straight up win, and giving the other a nice chunk of points to cover the spread with. Our first game takes us to New York where the Green Bay Packers are looking to rebound off of a disastrous Sunday Night Football game against a still slumping Giants team. The second piece of the teaser gives an extra six points to the Minnesota Vikings who very well may need them as they battle the Seahawks in their home stadium.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: GREEN BAY -.5 and MINNESOTA +9
Aaron Rodgers is coming off of one of, if not the worst game of his storied career doing absolutely nothing against the very tough San Francisco 49er defense. Rodgers is not the type of quarterback that will get rattled or lose confidence easily and a date with the New York Giants will make certain that things get back on track for the QB and Green Bay. For starters get used to seeing a lot of Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams as the Packers will look to wear down the very soft Giants defense. Even with right tackle Bryan Bulaga potentially out, the Green Bay offensive line thrives in matchups like this one against softer interiors. As much as the Packers could probably just run their way to a victory, it’s also a good opportunity for Rodgers to get the passing game going so plan for a rebound for the Pack receiving corp. Every game is tough in the NFL, but this game has more of the feel of a preseason contest than it does a week thirteen regular season game.
It seems like forever ago that the Danny Dimes hysteria was alive and well in New Jersey as the Giants have lost their last five games by an average of 11 points. Daniel Jones is certainly not the only reason for their losing streak, but he has definitely played a lot like a rookie making some bad mistakes and looking confused at times. Jones will be dealing with the usual mix and match parts at receiver/tight end as Golden Tate is a question mark to play this weekend. As is the case with many rookie quarterbacks Jones has had trouble reading through the progressions and dealing with the blitz and pressure. The Packers pressure off the edges is going to cause Jones some more problems and potentially some bad mistakes again. Their tackles have under-performed to expectations and they’ll have their hands full again Sunday. The Giants really have one chance to make this game offensively and that is to feed Saquon Barkley, a lot. The Packers have had trouble slowing down running backs so NY really needs to go to that well as much as they possibly can. Barkley has looked very average since his early season ankle injury and this could be a test to see how healthy and effective he can be when put into a good situation.
If it weren’t for the fact that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are substantially worse in road games than at Lambeau Field this would be a good spot to load on on Green Bay. They should cover the roughly touchdown spread so if you’re wanting to lay the points no argument from us on that. We’re going to play it a little safe however by teasing them down so they simply need to win the game. There seems to be almost no scenario short of Rodgers exiting early with injury that could prevent the Packers from getting back into the win column.
Moving over to the second game, a big-time Monday Night Football game as the Minnesota Vikings travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a very important NFC tilt. Kirk Cousins dispelled the myth that he couldn’t win a big road game a couple weeks back and looks to hammer that point home against Russell Wilson who continues to play the best football of his career. Playoff seeding will be determined to some extent as the winner of this game stays in the hunt for a division title at best, or wild card positioning at worst.
Somewhere along the way Kirk Cousins morphed his season from biggest free agent bust to potential MVP consideration. This will be Cousins biggest test of the season as he’ll have to battle the 9-2 Seahawks and the 12th man, and need some help from his defense to come away with a road win. Cousins will first and foremost need to be mindful of where Jadeveon Clowney is lined up for Seattle on defense. Clowney had one of the most dominant defensive games in recent memory in primetime a few weeks ago so we know he enjoys the bright lights. Cousins has been a top five QB against pressure this season so it’s not as though he can’t perform under duress, however there is a difference between feeling pressure and having Clowney disrupt the way he has the ability to do. As of Turkey Day Adam Thielen is still very much a question mark to play at receiver which will certainly have an impact on the Vikings overall gameplan on offense. While Stefon Diggs can pick up the slack, this is a game where having both would be extremely beneficial for Minnesota. As has been the key all season though, the key for the Vikings will be their ability to run the football and control the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks have been a top ten rush defense and this should be a nasty battle in the trenches between the Vikes’ O-line and Hawks’ D-line. We’re excited to check this game out on that side of the ball as it’s truly strength versus strength.
As if the Seahawks weren’t playing well enough on offense, they have welcomed Rashaad Penny into the fold in addition to Chris Carson now being able to utilize two fresh and powerful running backs. The Vikings will have DT Linval Joseph back on the defensive line just in time to try to slow down the running duo as they hope their own top rushing defense can hold up. As impressive as Carson and now Penny have been on the ground, we all know that Seattle’s offense starts and finishes with Russell Wilson, the likely second place MVP vote receiver if the award was given out today. The Vikings front seven is as strong as any in the league when they’re playing at their best which they’ll need to do against Wilson. Can the speedy linebackers of the Vikings contain Wilson when the plays break down and when he scrambles? What may be an even bigger concern for Mike Zimmer is whether or not his secondary can contain Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and newly acquired Josh Gordon? The secondary seemed like it would be a strength led by Xavier Rhodes for Minnesota, yet they have struggled all season giving up plays in the passing game. Conversely, Wilson has continued to throw the deep ball as well as any QB in the league. As was the case on the other side of the ball, it’s really good versus really good so we should see some high level play throughout.
The Vikings have been notably poor after a bye week under head coach Mike Zimmer which is not a good thing when you’re playing in Seattle. In a weird twist, the Seahawks have performed better on the road this season than at home. Even though Minnesota might be a better team from top to bottom, this is a game that Russell Wilson and the Seahawks should be able to win at home. In a nationally televised game, you have to believe the Vikings will bring their best effort and that should be enough to at least keep them competitive and within a score.
KEY STATS – The Packers are 6-0 ATS after a loss
– The Giants have lost 7 games in a row
– The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games as
favorites
This is another sensible time for a teaser play. Grabbing six points and needing simpy a win with Aaron Rodgers coming off of the performance GB had against the Giants is a no brainer. The Monday night game is a little scarier based on the opponent and environment, but you’ve got to look at getting 9 points with a good defense and team knowing that is a solid wager.
