Previous Week Plays – 1-5
Season Record – 19-22-1
WEEK 10 RECAP:
Despite some profit on our NFL props and Nascar over the weekend there is no good way to put a spin on what happened with our NFL plays as we posted a repulsive and unacceptable 1-5 tally dropping us back below .500 for the season. We could try to justify what happened with the fact that we just as easily could have been 5-1, but that’s irrelevant when all that counts is whether or not a ticket can cash, which in this case they did not. We started out looking fine as Arizona was in great cover position and held on against Tampa Bay and the Lions squeezed by a teaser cover for that first leg in the earliest finishes of Sunday. After that is was completely downhill. The Bills and Browns couldn’t hit the over total as Cleveland settled for 2 field goals and was stopped on downs inside the five yard line. Two missed Stephen Hauschka field goals sealed the deal and the game stayed under although the over was clearly the right side. The pain got worse from there as we had Kansas City double-dipped, once against the spread and once a pick for a teaser with Baltimore who cruised. A fourth quarter collapse by KC killed both dreams when it looked like at the very least the teaser would be fine. Sunday night we played with the sharps taking the Cowboys at home and wanted to see first hand if Kirk Cousins could win a big road game. Cousins played sound football and the Minnesota defense completely shut down Ezekiel Elliott for a fourth loss. Going into Monday night, we simply needed a Niners’ home win as the second leg of our teaser with the Lions. Blowing the lead in the fourth quarter, and missing a FG in overtime resulted in the Seahawks stealing the win and cemented a total collapse for us for the week. No moral victories here, just a lot of unfortunate pain and a desire to get back on a winning track.
WEEK 11 PLAYS:
When you’re fresh off a disastrous week it can be tempting to go completely conservative in an effort to find some wins. It’s the oldest gambling quote of all time, “scared money don’t make money” and we’ve got to rely on our methodology to get us back on track as we keep focused on the marathon that is the NFL season. We’re still actively looking at adding some wagers for this weekend, but with a Thursday Night Football play we wanted to get this out with the three bets that we have locked in. Check back later for any additional wagers.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) ATS(6-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-6) ATS(2-6-1)
Thursday November 14th
8:20pm
FOX, NFL Network
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -3 (-115)
Over/Under 40.5 (-125)
A game that seemed like it would be a dud just a couple of weeks ago suddenly could be very important for the winner of the Thursday Night Football game when the Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Both teams are coming off of last minute wins as beneficiaries of poor field goal kicking by their opposition. While the Ravens have been impressive recently, these teams aren’t out of contention in the AFC North or in the wild card hunt and will be looking to make a statement on national TV.
Everyone outside of the massive Pittsburgh fan base counted the Steelers out when they lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger at the beginning of the season. Mike Tomlin has rallied his troops and they’re playing scrappy and opportunistic defense and getting just enough out of the offense to not only be competitive but string together some wins. The offense will face a Cleveland defense that has played pretty good football the last month minus allowing a few big plays. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph will need to play smart football and his complimentary receivers have to make plays for them to win this game. Juju Smith-Schuster will continue to see heavy coverage and the Browns will be putting pressure from the edge which could result in some bad negative plays if Rudolph isn’t careful with the football. Pittsburgh is still looking to be a run first team and they’ll have the luxury of having starting running back James Conner back in the lineup just in time to face a Browns defense that can give up yards on the ground. Unlike the Bills who did not test this a week ago rushing Devin Singletary and Frank Gore only 12 combined times, look for Conner and Jaylen Samuels to get plenty of touches early in the game. This is an old-style game where Pittsburgh will need its offensive line to give a clear push in the running game to soften things up for Rudolph and the passing game.
The Cleveland offense played a pretty good game a week ago despite only netting 19 points on the scoreboard. The big problem was they continued to struggle in the red zone as they had twelve plays inside the opponent’s five yard line and came away with a total of 3 points. Two touchdowns there and they would have blown the game wide open. The encouraging news for the Browns is Nick Chubb continues to be nearly unstoppable running the ball as he prepares for a smashmouth game against a physical Steelers front seven. The Browns are also working Kareem Hunt in as a receiver which should only help their backfield attack. Cleveland tried to get Odell Beckham, Jr. involved more in the passing game but Bills cornerback Tre White was playing at an All-Pro level and kept him very quiet. Beckham does his best in the spotlight so don’t be surprised if he hits a big play on Thursday Night. While that connection still hasn’t been electric, Mayfield has been able to connect with Jarvis Landry the past couple of weeks which should ultimately help Beckham get going. The Browns offensive line has played better of late but they will be tested by T.J. Watt and company particular when Mayfield drops back to throw. The Browns should really look to the short passing game to neutralize this advantage for the Steelers to avoid negative plays of their own. Freddie Kitchens has deservedly taken a lot of heat as head coach and it will be interesting to see if he has that same philosophy with the offensive play calling.
KEY STATS – The total has gone over in the last three meetings
between the Steelers and Browns
– The Browns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
against the NFC North
The spread and the total seem relatively close from our evaluation and breakdowns so we only have a slight lean with each. Cleveland seems like they should win this game by a field goal so you can certainly look at laying the -2.5. While most Thursday Night Football games have stayed under on the total, this one seems like it should hover just over the fairly low mark that it’s set at. With what seems like accurate numbers and little value, the numbers seem to line up a little better to tease this game and add some values to both of the leans. It seems unlikely that the Browns would blow out their rivals on national TV so getting over one score with a solid 8.5 number is pretty sound. With the short turnaround and a quality Pittsburgh defense there may not be a ton of points, however going over 34.5 doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Can the Browns finally get over the hump against their nemesis missing their QB1 in a tough spot? We’ll be watching to find out, but we’re hoping that if they do it’s by less than a score with some points on the board for both teams.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Pittsburgh Steelers +9 and over 34.5
Cleveland Browns 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) ATS(5-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) ATS(3-5-2)
Monday November 18th
8:15pm
ESPN
Estadio Azteca – Mexico City, Mexico
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
Hopefully field conditions will be fine in Estadio Azteca so the whole world can enjoy what should be a fun ballgame between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. Both teams enter the game looking to rebound from poor performances last week and needing wins for different reasons. While this game may not quite be the Chiefs/Rams contest from a year ago, it should still provide plenty of offensive fireworks and good entertainment. Can either team find enough defense to make stops in big situations? And a bigger question may be can either defense hold up against the fatigue of playing at an altitude of over 7200 feet above sea level, substantially higher than Mile High Stadium in Denver?
Anyone who thought Patrick Mahomes might be a little rusty or limited in his return to action against the Titans was flat out wrong as Mahomes was nimble, accurate and dazzling as usual. We mentioned it in a teaser bet we had last week that Mahomes throwing for huge yardage is probably the safest bet in all of the NFL right now and that should continue against the Chargers defense. Even though LA has done well against the pass versus some good quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers recently. there simply doesn’t seem to be any game plan that can slow down the Chiefs and their multitude of weapons. The speed of Kansas City could really tire out the Chargers in the thin air and it’s very likely that there will be a lot of big plays in this game. One thing KC did not do well a week ago is run the football consistently. LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch due to some fumbling issues and Damien Williams who exploded against the Vikings was held down for the most part and had a costly fumble of his own against Tennessee. The Chargers have been gashed at times on the ground so Andy Reid will need to stay patient with the run game to do some damage. Perhaps even more importantly, the running game can give his own very susceptible defense a bit of a rest and tire out the Chargers playmakers, specifically Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
We may be reading a little too much into things, but is it just us or does this season seem to be the beginning of the end for Philip Rivers as a Charger, or perhaps even in the NFL? Rivers has shown he can still make plays and deliver victories, yet something just appears off in general. Fortunately for him he will have a matchup against a secondary that was basically torched by Ryan Tannehill and some mediocre skill talent just eight days prior. The key to this game for LA is how well they can get Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler controlling the tempo and time of possession. Gordon came on big last week and Ekeler remains a great options out of the backfield and each have to be licking their chops against that KC defense that could not tackle Derrick Henry at all. The Chargers could be without both of their starting tackles which could prove costly against Frank Clark and their edge rushers when Rivers does need to throw.
KEY STATS – The Chiefs are 23-2 straight up in their previous 25
games against the AFC West
– The favorites have covered all 3 games played in
Mexico City
The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely deflated us a week ago so we’re a little shy to pull the trigger with them again in a similar spot. Despite the recent bad taste, this simply just seems like one that makes too much sense to pass up. The line has moved in the Chiefs favor as the public is surprisingly not hammering Kansas City as we had expected. Even with laying the hook at 3.5, after two weeks of casino dominance, it seems like a little flattening out is due to the average Joe, with this game being the perfect spot for that. Ultimately, the Chiefs dominance of the AFC West should continue as they look to put a nail into the coffin that is the Chargers season. Expect the Chiefs defense to play a little better than they did a week ago and do just enough to help the offense get the win and the cover.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 33, Los Angeles Chargers 26
Teaser Bet
Atlanta vs. Carolina and Chicago vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (2-7) (3-6 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-4) (5-4 ATS)
Sunday November 17th
1:00pm
FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Carolina Panthers -5 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears (3-4-1) (3-6 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5)(6-3 ATS)
Sunday November 17th
8:20pm
NBC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles Rams -6 (-115)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
A couple of home teams in need of wins enter the weekend as six point favorites (after opening closer to seven point favorites as the Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Chicago Bears. Both of these games could be competitive, although the home teams have a clear advantage as their opponents have distinct weaknesses that should be exploited.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: CAROLINA +1 and LOS ANGELES RAMS pick
Matt Ryan returned after from his ankle injury and led the Falcons to one of the biggest upsets of the season as they thoroughly outplayed the Saints in New Orleans. Although Ryan and the running game unexpectedly played well, it was the Falcons defense that really came on by surprise holding the Saints to just 9 points. Atlanta will need another nice performance from Ryan and third string running back Brian Hill as we’re going to assume that their defense won’t be able to duplicate a dominant performance again. One of the most underrated players of this season has been tight end Austin Hooper who has been playing at a Pro Bowl level and has acted as a security blanket and red zone target for Ryan. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Hooper is going to miss this contest with a knee injury which could have a bigger impact than might be predicted. You can’t feel too sorry for Ryan though as he’ll still have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley available to stretch the field out and make some plays. The injuries at running back and to Hooper will however allow the Panthers to scheme more towards containing Jones which should at least slow down the Falcons offense.
The Panthers were a half yard short of potentially coming away with a tough victory in the snow in Green Bay as Christian McCaffrey couldn’t quite get the ball over the goal line as time expired. Despite a strong effort in the trenches from Grady Jarrett and the Falcons a week ago, McCaffrey should find plenty of room against their front seven to continue his monster season. While Kyle Allen has quietly and slowly earned the respect of his teammates and the league, wide receiver D.J. Moore is still flying under the radar despite two really nice games back to back. Moore could be in line for another big game particularly if the Falcons have to commit extra help to slowing down McCaffrey which they likely will. A focal point of emphasis for this game will be the battle of big men between the Carolina offensive line and the Falcon defensive line. Can Atlanta string together another strong performance or will they revert back to how they played previously?
The Chicago Bears and Mitchell Trubisky are coming off a critical win and some improvement in the passing game to keep their slim chances at the postseason alive. If you glance at the box score you’ll see Trubisky played a clean game and tossed three touchdown passes which is pretty impressive. If you watched the game however you would have noticed that it took the Bears a while to get anything going at all. Despite the touchdown passes the Bears offense still didn’t move the ball all that well against the Lions who were the second worst defense in the league going into the game. They are going to have a really tough assignment on the road against the Rams who have turned from an offensive juggernaut to more of a defensive minded team this season. With Aaron Donald and company battling along the line of scrimmages and the revamped Rams secondary locking down on Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel it’s tough to imagine the Bears being able to generate much offense in this game. The running game desperately misses Jordan Howard and they’ll most likely struggle to get anything going there either. The Bears point total is 16.5 and although we’re not officially playing it, the under sure seems like a good play there.
Last year’s wonder coach Sean McVay has suddenly become old news as the league caught up a bit to his stretch offensive scheme. Truth be told it’s more about the poor play from the offensive line that has really stymied this offensive growth and production. This offense is based on running the football and play action passing and the running game simply hasn’t been there. Against the Bears they’re going to need it to get going as they’re clearly weaker stopping the run as opposed to the pass. It hasn’t been talked about much but the loss of Brandin Cooks has also hurt this offense as teams are able to match up against two receivers much easier than three. That was evident a week ago as Cooper Kupp was shutout completely for the first time since returning from his injury. The formula on offense for LA is simple in this game: Figure out how to get Todd Gurley and the running game going to neutralize Khalil Mack and the Bears pass rush and opportunistic secondary. Sean McVay has had some prep time and if he’s as sharp as he was made out to be will figure out a way to get things moving on the ground.
KEY STATS – The Bears are 3-15 straight up in their last 18 games
as road underdogs
When you look at the recent trends the Falcons have been pretty dominant versus the Falcons which certainly makes things interesting in this game. Combine that with the fact that they played a great game defensively last week and it’s easy to jump on the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones bandwagon. In the Sunday Night Football matchup, we’re likely to see a defensive struggle as the Rams are clearly not the high powered offense they were at the beginning of last season. If you’re wagering these games straight up, you can absolutely make a case for taking the underdogs and the points as it’s possible these could end up as very close contests. Our case for making this a teaser bet has a few distinct bullet points. First, the numbers are absolutely correct as we’re taking a solid favorite and turning them into needing just a straight up win. Second, we’ve got the better teams picked, and third they’re playing at home. There are no sure things as we know, however if we have those three factors we’ll bet them all day long and feel good about them no matter what ends up happening.
