Previous Week Plays – 2-2
Season Record – 18-11
Week 8 Recap:
Some good and some bad with our picks last week as we split, going 2-2, and moving our yearly mark to 18-11. We got off to an easy and fast start with our Eagles -2.5 first half bet against the hapless Lions. The Eagles got up early, and took a 17-0 lead into the locker room getting the early cover, before going on to rout the winless Detroit team. Things unfortunately came crashing back down quickly however, as we had faded the Jets and quarterback Mike White. The Jets surprisingly won, and lit up what had been a Bengals defense that had been playing pretty well. Expecting New York to struggle, we took their team total under, which they blasted by early in the third quarter. The last two plays were a lot closer and more interesting as one worked out in our favor, and the other did not. Despite the Saints handing Tom Brady and the Buccaneers yet another head-to-head loss, our Tampa Bay team total over squeaked by halfway through the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, we couldn’t finish at a profitable 3-1 week however, as Carson Wentz reverted back to Philadelphia Eagle Wentz. Two late interceptions, the latter being a crucial throw into coverage in OT cost the Colts a game they needed to have within the division. It also cost us the cover. The line movement which we discussed didn’t really factor into play, as we guessed, but the money movement is still something to head scratch about.
Week 9 Picks:
After a really fun start to the season, the games the past couple of weekends haven’t been quite as enthralling as a whole. It’s not the best card in the world in week nine either, as some key absences to players like Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Henry have dulled down what were shaping up to be really good contests. As is normally the case during this portion of the season, navigating the lengthy list of injuries becomes increasingly important. Grabbing early lines for value is riskier because of the sometimes volatile movement, so as always play responsibly, do your research, and be agile up until kickoffs. For this week we’re settled on two games against the spread, with two team totals we like to go over, and after a teaser bye week for us, we’re back at it with another one. Now that we’re into November, the weather is starting to turn and the pretenders and contenders are starting to stand out a little bit more. Let’s have a great week!
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
Sunday November 7th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 57 (-110)
The largest spread of the weekend takes place between the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The line sits around two touchdowns in favor of the road team, in a game that very few expect to be close. The Bills have aspirations of a Super Bowl appearance, while the Jaguars are just trying to compete respectably for the duration of the season. Anything can happen on “Any Given Sunday”, although the most likely happening here is a rout of the home team.
It took the Bills offense a half to get going against the Dolphins last weekend as their offensive line was thoroughly outplayed by the Miami defensive line. The sledding shouldn’t be so tough for Buffalo when they face a Jaguars team that just allowed Geno Smith to play a good football game against them. Jacksonville has actually done a decent job against the run this season, only allowing 3.7 yards per rush, but that’s not how the Bills want to attack. They run as little as any team in the league, and in this game you can imagine offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will want to spread things out and throw the ball around. The Jaguars have given up a lot of long passes, and when facing Stefon Diggs and the Bills talented receivers, that’s not a good matchup. A week ago the Bills leaned on Cole Beasley in the slot to get the offense going, but this is shaping up more as a game for Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders on the outside and down the field. The Weather in Jacksonville looks like it’ll be nice, so throwing the football won’t be an issue for Allen. This should be a game where the Bills offensive line bounces back a bit, and the team uses the pass to set up the run with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary later in the game.
The Jaguars road loss in Seattle wasn’t unexpected, it’s how they lost that has to be disappointing for the club. They were completely dominated, and mustered only one late touchdown against a Seahawks defense that hasn’t been great all year. The team hopes to have James Robinson back after he exited with a heel injury, and as always, he is the focal point of getting their offense going. It’s tough to imagine he’ll have a ton of success as the Bills have been good against the run, with the exception of not slowing down Derrick Henry. (No apology needed there). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence continues to face pretty heavy pressure with his offensive line’s vulnerability in pass blocking. That’s going to be a problem against the Bills pass rush, as they can generate solid pressure with their front four. Rookie Greg Rousseau has really helped elevate everything opposite Jerry Hughes, and their defensive line depth and rotation keeps their rushers fresh throughout the game. Marvin Jones has been a bright spot at the wide receiver position, but whether or not Lawrence can find him quickly enough, and not make mistakes against the aggressive Bills defense is the real question? As we repeatedly state in our articles, young quarterbacks downfalls generally rest with turnovers. It’s going to be tough for Lawrence to play a clean game in this one.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are averaging 33 points per game in the 2021 season
– The total has gone over in 9 of the last 12 road games for the Bills
If you didn’t gather from our breakdown above, like most of America, we’re really anticipating this game getting ugly. With that being said, there appears to be a better edge than laying more than two touchdowns on the road. We’re instead focusing on a Bills offense that is a matchup nightmare for the overmatched Jaguars defense. The Bills could realistically push 40 points in this game, and anything under 30 would be a surprise for a team that is averaging 33 points per game. In a good weather game, with a roster that is mostly healthy, it would seem an “average” game would be the minimum of what we’d expect with their scoring. Throw in the fact that there could be some short fields if the defense can force the Jags rookie QB into some mistakes and it’s tough to see the Bills not getting to their total on Sunday.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total Over 31.5
Bills 34, Jaguars 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Sunday November 7th
4:05pm
CBS
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
New Orleans Saints -5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
The NFL has always been a week-to-week league, and the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles demonstrates the concept perfectly. Rewind to last week, and despite a loss, Justin Herbert and the Chargers were one of the league’s rising elite teams and talents. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles were getting ripped in their own local media after some ugly performances. An Eagles blowout victory in week eight, and another Chargers loss, and all of a sudden the narrative has changed drastically.
Time to pump the brakes on the “Justin Herbert is the next greatest quarterback in history” chatter, at least for a little bit. The BetCrushers are still huge believers in Herbert, as this kid should shine for many years in the league. With that being said, let’s remember he’s still just in his second season, so some of the mistakes we’ve seen the last couple of weeks are bound to happen. This seems like a good bounce back spot for Herbert and the Chargers as they go across country to Philadelphia. The Eagles defense has actually been better overall than where it was a year ago, although that can probably be partially attributed to not being put in horrible spots by the offense and turnovers. We mentioned a spot for Herbert to rebound here, but that’s contingent upon what we get from Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Ekeler is as good of a dual-threat back as there is playing right now, and he should feast upon the Eagles in the receiving game, and running. The Eagles linebacking corp is one of the worst in the league, and if they can’t contain Ekeler they’re going to be in for a long game. Bringing additional help there is going to leave their secondary vulnerable, which is where Herbert can make them pay. A pass rush for Philly is critical in this game to try to get Herbert out of rhythm, and possibly making more mistakes as he did against New England. Keep an eye on the interior of the Eagles defensive line as both tackles are banged up. While they’re expected to play, they may not be at full strength. With Brandon Graham absent from his edge rushing position, that could make the defense very susceptible to the talented skill positions of the Chargers.
Apparently it just takes losing your talented running back to injury to actually start handing the ball off for Nick Sirianni and the Eagles? After hearing the chatter for weeks, the Eagles went to work on the ground the last two games, with Kenneth Gainwell and the underappreciated Boston Scott toting the rock. Along with the Eagles offensive line, those two are going to be key in this football game as they attempt to control the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have been the worst in the league at stopping the run, and this will be another challenge for them. It’s mainly a challenge because of the option of Jalen Hurts also hurting them with his legs. We saw what Lamar Jackson was able to do to this Chargers defense, so let’s see how much LA learned from that meeting. The positive side for the Bolts’ is they’ve been good against the pass, and not allowing big plays. If they can contain Devonta Smith, the Eagles will struggle to throw the ball. That means it’s all up to the running backs and Hurts as a runner to win this game for them. That’s certainly possible as we’ve seen, but that’s not the spot you want to be forced into as an offensive unit. Much like the Eagles, the Chargers haven’t had great play from their linebackers either with the loss of Kenneth Murray. In addition to running, this is an opportunity for Dallas Goedert to really assert himself as a true number one tight end in the offense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 home games
– The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in the last 2 seasons vs the AFC
– The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs the NFC with Justin Herbert at quarterback
For two teams that have played in some blowout games in both directions this season, this game figures to be a close one. With last week’s performances of both squads there seems to be a little line value with grabbing the Chargers here. Although the matchup isn’t necessarily great for LA, they are realistically still in a tier above the Eagles at this point in time. The Chargers have also been good on the road, so there’s not a huge concern with laying some road chalk here in a somewhat square play. At the end of the day, we’re looking at the better team, with the better quarterback, to come away with a much needed win. Remember when we said time to separate the contenders and pretenders? That’s what we’re looking to do here.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers -2
Chargers 27, Eagles 21
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-7)
Sunday November 7th
1:00pm
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -6 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
The only time you might want to consider betting on a team with a 1-7 record, would be when they are playing a 1-7 team on the other side of the field. This may be the ugliest game of the weekend, but someone has to cover, right? The Texans welcome back veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and hope he can get their offense going against a Dolphins defense that has largely underachieved. Which of these teams will break their long losing streak in week nine?
The Houston Texans did as much as they could with Davis Mills behind the helm, and their record really reflects where they were as an offense. Assuming he’s not completely rusty, having veteran Tyrod Taylor back should give the offense a little more consistency. Taylor was actually playing really well before his injury, and his accuracy should help his wide receiver crew. In this matchup with the Dolphins, it’s actually Taylor’s ability to run that will help this offense. The Dolphins have had some challenges at slowing down running quarterbacks, and with their corners locking up the outside receivers it won’t be shocking to see Taylor tuck and run. The trio of running backs in Houston are actually a nice compliment as well as they’re all capable pass catchers. There are really two areas to really watch on this side of the ball. The first is how well the Texans offensive line can hold up against the Dolphins defensive front. The Miami defensive line has talent, and when they’re hustling can really establish their dominance. At times they seem undisciplined, and almost uninterested. The second matchup to watch is Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks versus the corners of the Dolphins. Cooks is the one game-breaking talent for the Texans who has the speed to beat great cornerback play. If the stat sheet shows Cooks with big numbers at the end of the game, it’s fair to say the Texans will have played really well and quite possibly have won on the road.
Tua Tagavailoa remains one of the biggest question marks around the league at the quarterback position. At times he looks like things are clicking and he makes the right read and throw. At other times he looks lost, skiddish, and misses open throws. That can be expected with a young quarterback, however it’s not helping the Dolphins determine whether or not he’s the man for their future. One thing is certain, without making a deal for Deshaun Watson, Tua is the man at least for the rest of this season. It will be interesting to see if he’s able to come out and play looser without the constant swirl of rumors around him. He has played well against lesser competition, so he should be able to make some plays against the Texans. He was able to re-develop some chemistry with wide receiver Davante Parker a week ago, and has to like his options against the Houston secondary. In reality, the Texans secondary isn’t terrible, but they’re not good enough to play well without a strong pass rush. That’s something that even an underachieving Dolphins offensive line should be able to thwart on Sunday. At some point the Dolphins need to really commit to establishing some sort of a running game. That’s something they could definitely do against this Houston team that is surrendering over 4.8 yards per carry. Miami would be wise to give Myles Gaskin a healthy workload to see if they can control the game, and soften things up for Tagavailoa and the passing game. After a visibly frustrating day for tight end Mike Gesicki last week, he should be in line for a nice day and could see some red zone targets at the very least.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Dolphins are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 home games
– The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Dolphins
This is definitely a game where you check the scores and updates as it probably won’t be much to watch. Outside of potential draft implications, there isn’t a lot to get excited about in this one. You can make the argument that there’s no reason to wager on this game, and if you did, we couldn’t argue with that. We’re going with a play here though for a couple of reasons. First, it seems wild that this Dolphins team would be favored by more than a FG to anyone in the league. Our line has this as a field goal game, so there seems to be a few points of value here. It was obviously a very small sample size, but Tyrod Taylor had this team pretty competitive before he went down with his injury. His experience should give the team some extra confidence on both sides of the football. Of course anything could happen in a game like this, but we’re banking on the fact that this ends up as a field goal football game.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans +6
Dolphins 26, Texans 23
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Denver Broncos (4-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
Sunday November 7th
1:00pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
New Orleans Saints -5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Early in the season, the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys were looking strong in forging towards a playoff run. They’re now two teams headed in opposite directions, as the Broncos have unofficially waved the white flag on their season, as the Cowboys continue to stay hot. The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, and now emotionally, with the trade of face of the franchise Von Miller to the Rams. How will they respond against a potent Dallas offense who should have their quarterback in the lineup after missing last week?
How well is this Dallas Cowboys offense playing in the 2021 season? Things are going so well that the team was able to move the ball and secure a win with Cooper Rush filling in for the injured Prescott in week eight. When you have a dominating offensive line, a pair of running backs, and several good receiving options, it certainly makes things easier on whoever is calling the plays in the huddle. Fortunately though for the Cowboys, that will once again be Dak Prescott, who is scheduled to return after sitting out with a minor calf strain last week. Dak will take on a very tough and proud Denver defense that has held most of the teams they’ve played down this year, even with an offense that doesn’t always sustain drives. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the trade of future Hall of Famer and team leader Von Miller before the deadline, not only hurts them on the field, but has to sting psychologically. When your leader is shipped off unceremoniously, you have to wonder how much the team wants to rally and play? Back to the X’s and O’s, facing a Cowboys offense with a decimated linebacking corp is not a great proposition for Denver. The Dallas game plan shouldn’t change much here. A lot of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and Dak finding his receivers winning for timely throws down the field from a clean pocket. It’s important to note that wide receiver CeeDee Lamb did tweak an ankle in practice Wednesday, so you may want to check his availability if you’re betting on this game. If Dallas can get off to a fast start on offense, it’s safe to guess that the Broncos won’t be too interested in making tackles in this football game.
There is a lot of clamoring for Drew Lock to take over at this point in the season for Teddy Bridgewater from Denver fans. With essentially giving up on the season, it’s hard to argue why you wouldn’t give Lock one more run to see what he can do? Obviously that’s not the BetCrushers decision to make, so we’ll look at what Bridgewater gives Denver against the Cowboys defense. Everything about Bridgewater and what we see out of Denver just screams “mediocrity”. They aren’t horrible blocking, running or throwing, but they aren’t necessarily good either. If they want to keep up with Dallas, they’re going to have to open it up and take their shots down the field. With Jerry Jeudy now back for a second week, and Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick at receiver, there is no reason they shouldn’t challenge the Dallas secondary. Everyone knows how many interceptions Travon Diggs has accumulated, but most people also know that he and his secondary mates have given up a lot of plays over the top. Bridgewater can really be effective with play action, so let’s see how well Denver can run the football against a middle of the pack Dallas defense? There isn’t a big margin of error for the Broncos offense, meaning turnovers simply cant happen if Denver wants to have a shot to pull off the upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are averaging 32 points per game in 2021
– The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in 2021
– The total has gone over in the last 5 Cowboys home games
Dallas is a 10.5 point favorite in this game, which might be a little steep against a Broncos team that has played some close games. At some point the Cowboys against the spread streak is going to come to an end. Whether or not that happens this week probably depends on if the Broncos offense can score some points to keep up with Dallas. If we’ve seen one shift over the last few seasons, it’s that elite offenses now beat good defenses. Don’t let your father read that, but it’s absolutely true. The Denver defense would have been really good if they had all of their pieces from the start of the season in place. The combination of injuries and now the departure of their leader makes this unit really vulnerable. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense in the league at this time. Even against a Broncos defense that hasn’t surrendered a lot of points this season, we simply can’t pass up a Dallas total that rests under 30 points.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys – Team Total Over 29.5
Cowboys 33, Broncos 20
Teaser Bet
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (7-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday November 7th
4:25pm
FOX
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Green Bay Packers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (6-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (7-1)
Sunday November 7th
8:20pm
NBC
Sofi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
New England Patriots -7 (-105)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Injuries put a damper on what were shaping up to be the two biggest games of week number nine. The Packers will not have the services of MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the Titans will be without the league’s top running back Derrick Henry. With both road teams missing their most important players, will they be able to compete against the talented home teams? Seems like a great opportunity, with the numbers lining up for a teaser bet.
The great demise of the Kansas City Chiefs may or may not be premature. We may know after their game with the Packers however, if they can’t get the home win against Jordan Love. It’s not crazy to say that no player does as much for his team as Aaron Rodgers does for Green Bay. That was evident in the near touchdown line movement when Rodgers was ruled out with COVID-19. Head coach Matt LaFleur has proven to be a good game-planning coach, so you know he knows his best shot to beat the KC defense is by running the ball at them early. Between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon he certainly has the horses to do that. In all of the Chiefs discussion, not many people were mentioning the missed games from defensive tackle Chris Jones. His return helped boost the team a week ago, and he will be the player to watch as usual on the defensive front for the Chiefs. On the other side of the ball there are three concerning things with the Kansas City offense. First, is the obvious challenge with turnovers that Patrick Mahomes and the team have had. Second, is the suddenly quiet play from tight end Travis Kelce. And third, which is a big factor in the first two, is the fact that the Chiefs just aren’t pass blocking very well. The Packers have managed to generate some decent pressure despite the absence of their edge rushers to injury. They’re going to need their front four to get to Mahomes early in an effort to get him a little bit rattled. With Jaire Alexander not in the secondary, they need that rush in order to contain Tyreek Hill and the other speedy wideouts for the Chiefs. The Packers managed to get a win without Davante Adams a week ago, can they keep the magic going with their quarterback?
Speaking of players accounting for some major line movement, it’s crazy that a team that has won three really big football games in a row would be an 8 point underdog. That’s how much the books think bout Derrick Henry and what he means to the Tennessee Titans. There are a lot of NFL pundits who believe Ryan Tannehill is a top quarterback in the league. There are an equal number who think he’s just an average guy. We’ll really find out as he’ll have to carry the burden for the offense and really the entire team, for at least the next couple of months. Starting with the Los Angeles Rams is not the ideal spot to figure this out, as the team on the west coast bolstered an already good defense with pass rushing legend Von Miller. The new addition will likely be a situational rusher, but without a loaded box, how will Tannehill fair against a fiercer rush and more coverage in the secondary? The good news is it looks like he will have wide receiver Julio Jones back, so that should at least take a little bit of the pressure of A.J. Brown on the opposite side. The Titans might still be able to get their offense going if Tannehill plays well, it’s the defense that will be the issue in this game. The Rams offense is really rolling along behind Matthew Stafford. His connection with Cooper Kupp is putting up potentially record setting numbers, and against a shaky Titans secondary the two should find more success. When the Titans have gotten turnovers, they’ve hung in there on defense, when they haven’t, it’s been a struggle for them.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers have a .483 winning percentage in games without Aaron Rodgers playing since entering the league
– The Chiefs are 6-0 at home in November during Patrick Mahomes era
This teaser bet is really about playing the numbers, not the opponents. It’s a little scary to bet against the Packers and the Titans, despite the fact they’ll be without their top players on Sunday. This is near a typical Wong teaser though so we’re really just playing the percentages here. It definitely doesn’t hurt to have Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford leading the teaser and playing at home either. Let’s find out how good the home teams are here in games that they should in fact win.
