Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 11-7
Week 5 Recap:
Some weeks we’re good, some weeks we’re bad, and some weeks we’re really really lucky. This week had one of each, as we were fortunate to come away with a 2-1 winning tally for the weekend. Sunday started out ugly for us as we struck out with the Atlanta Falcon team total under in the London game. In actuality, despite the Falcons hot start, they actually barely crossed the total, but we were clearly on the wrong side of that game. We re-established some momentum in the afternoon window with the Titans while they cruised to a dominating victory, as our fade the Jags tour continued. Additionally, the Cowboys completed leg one of our teaser bet with a win against the rival Giants, who were depleted in-game with injuries. The luck occurred on the second part of the teaser where we, along with a chunk of the betting world, had the Ravens. Despite Indianpolis owning a 122-0 record when leading by 16+ in the fourth quarter over the last 3 decades, somehow everything fell into place when Lamar Jackson led his team to a come from behind win. Naturally, we feel a little humbled by the lucky win, but we’ve endured plenty of bad beats in our day, that we will accept the win and move on.
Week 6 Picks:
If you’ve never caught our articles before you can feel free to roast us on our picks for this weekend. We’re laying road chalk all over the place, a normal formula for defeat in NFL betting. Add in the fact that our teaser for the weekend features two road teams, and a lot of sharp bettors would discredit these picks before they even give them a chance. We’re well aware that we’re going against the grain of analytics or rules here, but our studying hasn’t failed us yet these season, and we’re confident it won’t here either. After all, unlike most of America, we’re not on the Browns (officially), or the Broncos. There’s another London game on the schedule, and the first weekend with byes. More than any other week this season, injuries are now playing a crucial part of breakdowns. We waited to release our official plays until seeing Friday practices, and ultimately passed on betting a game from that report. All of our bets this week feature teams who have big playoff aspirations, and this is the time in the season where the contenders start to separate a bit. We have a total of 4 wagers this weekend, although we are only breaking down three football games, as we’re doubled up on our teaser, and have a team total as well. When we tried this in week four we split, so we’re hoping to sweep this time around. When we’re double and tripled up on a team/game, it’s similar to upping a unit bet, however we stay a little diversified with the different options. Let’s take a look below:
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
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Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs. New England Patriots (2-3)
Sunday October 17th
4:25pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
The only game we have featured with a single bet is an important inter-conference battle between the scorching hot Dallas Cowboys, and the New England Patriots in Foxborough. New England is a gritty and competitive team, as you’d expect from a Bill Belichick team, and they’ll need to play a complete game to upend the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas is the only team that is perfect against the spread this season. That streak will end at some point, the question is can they keep it going for another week?
The BetCrushers were wrong about Dak Prescott and aren’t too proud to admit that he’s developing into a top tier quarterback. When you combine his play, and an improved coaching scheme, you see what can happen for this team. This isn’t an easy test for Dallas, as the Buccaneers learned a couple of weeks ago, largely getting stifled by the Patriots defense. There is a distinct difference in this game, and that is the gameplan that the Cowboys will employ. Unlike Tampa, Dallas has been committed to running the football behind their once again dominant offensive line, something that is going to cause big problems for the Patriots. The emergence of Tony Pollard has also pushed Ezekiel Elliott and the combo is tearing apart opposing defenses throughout the league. New England has been middle of the road stopping the run, but that won’t be good enough here. Belichick is most likely going to try to take the run game away, which will leave the secondary, albeit a quality secondary, exposed to the passing game. The matchup here is simple, the Cowboys offensive line is vastly superior to the Patriots front seven. There are too many weapons for the Patriots to take away here to slow them down. New England will have as good of a plan as they can have, they simply won’t have enough talent to go toe to toe with Dallas.
Did anyone happen to catch the Rex Ryan comments regarding Mac Jones and the Patriots offense the other day? Time to let that rivalry go Rex, you’re not the Jets coach anymore. Anyhow, Ryan was definitely harsher than necessary on rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but he did bring up some valid points. The Patriots passing game is not electric and does struggle at times to move the football. When the offense is moving, it’s generally because Damien Harris and the running game is moving it down the field. Harris is banged up so we’ll have to see how effective NE can be when they try to establish the running game. What’s been a challenge for the Cowboy opponents this year is they’re falling behind early and having to abandon the running game. If that happens here, this game could get ugly, and a comeback like we saw against the Texans is far less likely. The big key for the Patriots is really taking care of the ball to keep Dallas off the field, and not give them any help scoring. This Cowboys defense is better than it was a year ago, however it’s still not great. Rex Ryan doesn’t believe Mac Jones can challenge them down the field, the question is, does Josh McDaniels?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS this season
– The Patriots are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games
– The Patriots are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
Hopefully you booked this when we did and avoided the dreaded hook at the key number. We’re still backing the road favorite at -3.5 as an official play as we hope to avoid a repeat of what we saw in the Tampa game in New England. We’re not expecting a blowout by any means, as the Patriots should be competitive at home against a marginal Cowboys defense. However the talent discrepancy is just a little too big, not just at the skill positions, but in the trenches as well.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Cowboys 29, Patriots 23
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team
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Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) vs. Washington Football Team (2-3)
Sunday October 17th
1:00pm
CBS
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
Who would have figured the Kansas City Chiefs would be sub .500 at this point in the season, and in what is a really important somewhat must-win football game in Washington? The home team has also been underachieving a bit, although they finally at least got a little bit of spark out of their defense a week ago. Points should be plentiful here, and the loser of this game is going to find themselves with an uphill climb heading into the second trimester of the season.
Despite their lackluster performance on Sunday Night Football a week ago, we’re not panicking on this Kansas City offense, or Patrick Mahomes. In fact, we’re doubling down that he’s going to come out blazing on Sunday and play one of his marquee games offensively. There is a little concern as OG Joe Thuney and WR Tyreek Hill are considered questionable to go, both being huge cogs in the offense. Despite this, we’re planning on a lot of Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams and the supporting cast of wide receivers to play big roles in this game. We might even see an expanded role from Josh Gordon, who could really help elevate this receiving corp once he’s in game shape and has the playbook down. The real story here has to be the disappointment of the Washington Football Team defense, which has been getting shredded week in and week out. A poor secondary was sheltered by a massive pass rush in 2020, a pass rush that hasn’t found its footing so far this season. If Washington is unable to generate pressure with their front four collection of first round draft picks, Mahomes is going to feast on big plays down the field, and over the middle. We all know Andy Reid doesn’t love to run the football, and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, and against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop teams from throwing, he won’t have to. Expect a focused Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and KC offense that is dialed in and looking strong once again.
On offense, you can make the argument that Washington, or any team in the league has an advantage against this current Kansas City defense. The Chiefs will again be without their best defensive player as DT Chris Jones looks as though he’ll miss another start. That means Antonio Gibson should have a lot of success running between the tackles. It also means that Taylor Heinecke may have the luxury of having some time in the pocket to throw. It does help Kansas City that on the reverse side, Washington’s best lineman, Brandon Scherff is also going to miss the contest. Overall, Heinecke should find some success despite the fact he’ll be missing Logan Thomas at tight end. Terry McLaurin continues to be as solid and steady as any receiver in the game, and with KC also missing Charvarius Ward at the corner, McLaurin will have some chances for big plays as well. Unlike a week ago where Kansas City did not blitz Josh Allen much, look for them to dial up some pressure to try to rattle the inexperienced quarterback. The real challenge appears to be whether or not they’ll be able to stop the powerful Gibson when running, even if they know it’s coming.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Total has gone over in 4 of the Chiefs 5 games this season
– The Chiefs are averaging just under 31 points per game this season
– Washington is allowing 31 points per game this season
– Washington is 1-4 ATS this season
– Washington is 1-5 straight up in their last 6 home games
Even at 2-3 there’s a chance that Kansas City is still overvalued at this point based on what we’ve seen. With that being said, we can’t trust this Washington team either, even getting a large number at home. The Chiefs may be downplaying the importance of this game, or making a statement, but you can rest assured they know what they need to do here. Offensively, there’s little to be concerned about against this Washington defense, other than maybe the status of Tyreek Hill. Defensively, it’s a little harder to handicap. We’re looking at some fireworks and taking the Chiefs team total to protect against their liability on the defensive side of the ball.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs – Team Total Over 30.5
Chiefs 34, Football Team 28
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans
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Buffalo Bills (4-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Monday October 18th
8:15pm
ESPN
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Buffalo Bills -6 (-105)
Over/Under 54 (-110)
A pair of teams who appear to be the frontrunners in their respective divisions are the featured Monday Night Football game from Nashville. It’s a home game for the Titans, however you may see more royal blue in the stands than navy, as Bills Mafia will be invading Tennessee for the festivities of the host city. The Titans haven’t played particularly great, and are fortunate to play in the worst division in football. They’ll need to step things up, especially on defense, if they hope to beat a Bills team that is leading the league in offense and defense through five games.
The early season critics who were questioning Josh Allen have gotten really quiet after the clinic he put on against the Chiefs in week five. Allen has another opportunity to shine against a Titans defense that is almost as bad as what we’ve witnessed so far in Kansas City. There’s also some redemption at stake for Allen, as he played one of his worst games of the year at Tennessee in their loss a season ago. The Titans unfortunately picked up where they left off on defense, which is unable to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks. They do get linebacker Bud Dupree back this week, but the Bills offensive line has played well after their week one whipping they took against the Steelers. For Tennessee to have success, Dupree and Harold Landry are going to have to get to Allen early and often to cover up for their secondary. Safety Kevin Byard has played well, including a great game against the Jaguars last weekend, however the rest of the group has really struggled. It’s also not a very deep unit, so they could have trouble with the three wide receiver sets the Bills like to run. After a quiet game against the Chiefs, look for Cole Beasley to do some work in the slot and be more of a featured target. If the Bills continue to get solid play from tight end Dawson Knox, their offense becomes even tougher to defend. It’s not a foregone conclusion that it’s just going to be Allen dropping back to throw 50 times in this game. Tennessee has also had its challenges stopping the run, allowing over 4.5 yards per carry, something that Devin Singletary and Zack Moss will look to exploit. This is clearly another case of one side of the ball being vastly superior to the other. If Tennessee can’t come up with some turnovers or plays on special teams, it’s tough to see them winning this game.
One thing that the Titans can and should do to slow down the Buffalo offense is establish Derrick Henry. The league’s leading rusher had a big day against the Bills last year, and just continues to wear down defenses even when they know it’s coming. The Buffalo defense looks much improved in their run defense as the return of Star Lotulelei and stepped up play of Ed Oliver have equaled some new interior toughness. While that will help the Bills, it’s almost impossible to expect a defense to completely shut down Henry. The Bills will also be without linebacker Matt Milano who is missing his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Milano is the highest grade linebacker on the season so far, so even though A.J. Klein is a capable fill in, that’s not what you want when playing an offense like Tennessee. The Titans on the other hand are loaded and ready to go as Julio Jones returns from injury to lineup across from A.J. Brown. Expect the Bills to play a two deep shell as they did against the Chiefs to give the corners help, at least until the Titans can get Henry going. On this side of the ball, it’s really going to come down to the battle of the big men. Can the rotating front four of the Bills win against a nasty and tough offensive line of the Titans? If they can, they’ll be in good shape, as they were against the Chiefs. If not, they’ll need to bring their safeties and linebackers up, which leaves single coverage on Jones and Brown. This is why that battle on the line is so critical. One other thing to monitor is the ball security from Ryan Tannehill and the offense. The Bills also lead the league in takeaways through five games, and you can’t give them extra possessions and expect to win.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are averaging 34 points per game this season
– The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
– The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
– The Titans are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The Bills have been blowing teams out since their week one loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers. If we had to play the spread, we’d have to assume they can keep their covering streak going, but the good news is we don’t have to play the spread. Again, laying 6 points on the road against a team that has Henry, Jones and Brown just seems to defy betting logic. Especially when a team is coming off of an emotional win the week before. We’re again going to opt with the portion of this game that seems to be the surest thing from an X’s and O’s standpoint. A very good Buffalo offense versus a very bad Tennessee defense. Give us lots of points from the Buffalo Bills.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total Over 29.5
Bills 35, Titans, 27
Teaser Bet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans
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and 
vs.
You don’t need a regurgitated recap of these two games if you already read the breakdowns above. Here’s why we’re playing this teaser, despite taking two road teams in this one. We’re taking two of the top quarterbacks in the league, that are set to have an offensive explosion this weekend against two bad defenses. The Chiefs are in a near must-win scenario, and the Bills are on a mission and dialed in. Both of these could potentially be a bit of a sweat, but no teaser can be a bigger sweat than what the Ravens did a week ago, right?
