BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 8-7
JJ – 3-12
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 35-27-1
JJ – 28-34-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
A tale of two different weeks for the BetCrushers against the spread picking games in week four. Yanni was able to stay above water posting an 8-7 mark, while JJ struggled with a tough 3-12 weekend. Not sure if anyone paid attention, but the Casinos raked it in during week four collecting on 5 of the 7 highest bet games. Because we were split on many of our picks we won’t bore you with a recap of where we nailed them or where we failed. Let’s go ahead and dive right in to week five:
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)
Thursday – October 3rd – 8:20pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -1.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 52%
The Breakdown:
An important divisional contest with the Rams and Seahawks opens week five on Thursday night as each team looks to get a spot up on each other. Los Angeles looks to rebound off of a disappointing loss where their defense was torched by Jamies Winston and Tampa while Seattle returns home fresh off their win against Arizona. Even though there will be some emphasis on defense, this game could end up very well end up as a shootout.
Despite bringing a respectable 3-1 record into this game with the Seahawks, the Rams have looked a little unbalanced so far this season. Todd Gurley picked up where he left off at the end of the 2018 campaign rather than the beginning when he was absolutely dominant. Jared Goff is only the 23rd rated quarterback heading into this game and neither Robert Woods nor Brandin Cooks have been able to consistently make big plays. Defensively this unit misses Ndamukong Suh and has been exposed a lot early on. Going on the road to Seattle is not an easy task for any team and Goff and this offense will have their work cut out for them. The scariest piece for the Rams offense in this game could be their offensive line. They have not played very well this year and the 12th man is going to make for some possible false starts and 3rd and long situations in this game. Jadeveon Clowney gave the Hawks’ a vision of what they traded for last week and with he and Ziggy Ansah rushing off of the edges they could cause problems for Goff in the passing game if he can’t get the ball out quickly. The biggest bright spot for the Rams has been the return of Cooper Kupp who has seemingly gone from the third option at receiver to Jared Goff’s favorite target since returning from his knee injury. Cupp could provide big problems for a Seahawk defense that has been vulnerable through the air. The Rams also have their two tight end set with Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee together and healthy which should help the Rams with the quick passing game.
We all know that the other side of the ball is going to come down to what magician Russell Wilson can do, particularly in the fourth quarter. Chris Carson bounced back in week four and you can plan on Pete Carroll featuring him early in this game. Carson could have a nice game here as the Rams will more than likely be focused on not allowing Wilson to beat them by creating plays outside of the pocket or moving the chains on third downs. Tyler Lockett is quietly morphing from a speedy deep threat to a really nice all around number one wide receiver in this league. With Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Nickell Robey-Coleman matching up, it’s likely that Wilson will need to find some alternative options to throw to. Will Dissly could be that option as he’s emerging as their steady player returning from an injury plagued 2018. D.K. Metcalf could also get some targets in this one. An area of concern for the Rams is who’s going to be keeping an eye on Russell Wilson when he starts moving around? Will they use a linebacker or a safety and will that player be able to keep up with Wilson’s quickness?
This should be a really close game as the 1.5 point spread would indicate. A lot of the evaluating heads on TV said that in a close game like this you should take the better team particularly if they’re playing at home. (Referring to the Seahawks). The question here is, who is the better team? The Seahawks have beaten up on some less than amazing competition so it’s very possible the Rams are actually the better team. If you’re playing this game you can think about teasing the Rams to over a touchdown as it should stay tight. We’re going to go with the group with think is the better team, and that’s the visitors here.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams +1.5 (Rams 25, Seahawks 24)
JJ’s Pick – Rams +1.5 (Rams 27, Seahawks 20)
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-2) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Carolina Panthers -3
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: Jacksonville 52%
The Breakdown:
A game that looked like it would be a dud just a couple of weeks ago is all of a sudden pretty important for these teams as the winner will be right in the middle of things in their respective conferences. A couple of “backup” quarterbacks square off as Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen have both infused some energy into teams that desperately needed it.
We’re starting to believe that maybe Gardner Minshew actually is the player that the media is making him out to be. Certain players just have that “it” and Minshew at least up to this point is proving that he does. He’ll have a tough test Sunday as the Carolina Panthers enter the week allowing the fewest yards through the air in the league and being near the top in QB pressures and sacks. Fortunately, his running back Leonard Fournette was able to go absolutely wild last week nearing a franchise record cracking the 200 yard mark rushing. The Panthers are clearly more vulnerable against the run so with Carolina looking to stack Fournette up, there should be at least a little bit of room for Minshew to run the offense. The young QB has done a nice job spreading the ball around and has made what seemed to be some very average receivers look pretty sound. The Jaguars biggest issue offensively in this game is their offensive line which continues to struggle in pass protection. If they can hold up, their offense should be able to do enough in this game to keep them close.
Carolina will be looking to exploit an issue on the Jags defense which is the void of All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey. It’s apparent that this will be a continuing theme for Jacksonville as long as Ramsey is still on the roster. The Panthers aren’t exactly explosive in the passing game but the likelihood of Kyle Allen making mistakes just went down drastically without Ramsey in the lineup. As is the case with Jacksonville, the Panthers also need to give their young quarterback protection against what is a renewed pass rush in the Duval. Calais Campbell is still playing well, and the return of Yannick Ngakoue along with rookie Josh Allen have been able to generate pressure without blitzing. As is the case with any opponent of the Panthers, how will Jacksonville attempt to slow down do everything talent Christan McCaffrey? It’s very possible that McCaffrey accounts for an even higher percentage of his teams offense than normal in this game.
This is a really tough game to handicap as the line seems about right on the money. This game is probably a little more important for Carolina as it’s at home. It’s very likely that one or two key plays are the difference in this game and that could include the kicking game or special teams. For those reasons, we’ll pass on betting this one, but will take the points for fun here.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Panthers, 23, Jaguars 21)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Jaguars 21, Panthers 20)
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-0) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-4)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -16
Over/Under: 42
Public Money Percentage: New England 70%
The Breakdown:
The undefeated New England Patriots go on the road to face the winless Redskins in a game that looks like it could turn out to be a massacre. The Redskins are struggling on both sides of the ball, while New England continues to lean on their balance in all three phases of the game. These teams are polar opposites in many ways and the scoreboard will most likely show that at the end of the game.
Tom Brady and New England looked mortal in week four against a stout Buffalo defense. In typical fashion, they found a way to win through special teams and a fierce defense of their own. As they turn the page and move on to their week five matchup they’ll be going against a Redskin team that is in quite a bit of disarray. More to come on that shortly. The breakdown of this game is pretty simple in the fact that you have one model franchise going about it’s business and one that is going to be rebuilding again in 2020. It’s highly unlikely that Tom Brady is going to put up another stinker like he did against the Bills and this is a game where the NE offense could prove it still has some firepower of it’s own both on the ground and through the air.
The Redskins are going to fresh of the injured list Colt McCoy at quarterback, which by the way is absolutely the correct decision here. McCoy gives this team the best chance to win, and there is no reason at all to march Haskins back out against this Patriots defense. From watching their defense there is literally no matchup that the Redskins can win on the offensive side of the ball. It’s rare that you have a situation where you can’t find anything to exploit, but if you can find an area with the Redskins can win against that defense please don’t hesitate to indulge us.
With the spread being so large some early money actually came in on Washington which is understandable as they’re at home and the Pats offense is re-figuring itself out. Colt McCoy is a smart veteran quarterback and should provide a small spark to the offense. Let’s cut to the chase: This feels like one of those situations where the Redskins get embarrassed and Jay Gruden is the first coast on the chopping block. That would be a fitting end to Gruden’s tenure in DC as a video surfaced this week of him partying it up with some young ladies and a little cannabis. He may have plenty of time to do his best Keith Richards impressions if his team gets routed, which we think is going to happen.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -16 (Patriots 33, Redskins 6)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -16 (Patriots 31, Redskins 10)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (3-1) at TENNESSEE TITANS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -3
Over/Under: 38.5
Public Money Percentage: Tennessee 54%
The Breakdown:
Defenses will be on display when the Bills and Titans face off in Nashville Sunday afternoon in another game of two teams that mirror each other. The Bills lost a tough one to the Patriots in week four and lost their quarterback to a nasty concussion along the way. Fortunately Josh Allen cleared concussion protocol and they’ll need him focused against a Tennessee team that has looked amazing during stretches of this season, and very poor at others.
There is no questioning Josh Allen’s toughness or desire to win as he worked his way back to be on the field in a big game in Tennessee. This is a big boost for the Bills offense because of Allen’s mobility. The Titans have been up and down on both sides of the ball, but their defense matches up well with the Bills offense. For the Bills to pull off the road upset Allen will need to pick up some key third downs with his feet. The Bills will try to ride the league’s fourth all-time leading rusher Frank Gore offensively in a game where he’ll most likely be grinding out a lot of two and three yard gains. Cole Beasley will be another key in this game and Allen will need to be accurate on the short throws into tight windows. The most important piece for both teams in this game is turnovers and ball security. In a game that promises to be a field position battle with a lot of potential punts and field goals, the difference could be in who takes care of the ball better.
Marcus Mariota had a strong game last week as teams continue to key in on the revitalized hammer that is Titan running back Derrick Henry. Just like with the Bills, Tennessee is unlikely to hit a lot of big plays in the passing game. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are playing great football in the secondary and Buffalo is near the top of the league in quarterback pressures. In order for Tennessee to move the ball they will need to try to outphysical a tough Bills front seven in the running game, and Mariota also will need to use his legs in this matchup. Keep a close eye on Bills young linebacker Tremaine Edmunds as he’ll be a key to both slowing down Derrick Henry and watching Mariota when he takes off.
If you like games with big plays and a lot of scoring this probably won’t be the one you want to tune into this weekend. We’re probably not going to see a lot of this game on NFL Redzone unless there are some big turnover. Even with a low total, you can consider taking the under here if you want to bet it. Because it should be close and low scoring we’ll take the points with this one too.
Yanni’s Pick – Bills +3 (Titans 17, Bills 16)
JJ’s Pick – Bills +3 (Bills 20, Titans 17)
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-2) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-3)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 55%
The Breakdown:
One of the hardest hitting rivalries of the past two decades is showcased as a suddenly critical early season game takes place at Heinz Field. Going into week four it looked like Baltimore was going to run away with the AFC North and Pittsburgh was going to have a really early pick in the 2020 NFL draft. All of a sudden the Browns victory over the Ravens and Pittsburgh’s thrashing of the Bengals makes this division a lot more wide open, and if the Steelers could pull out a win would be right at the top.
The two perennial AFC North favorites get together for their usual bruising matchup as they seem to be trending in different directions. The Ravens were flying high just two weeks ago but some bad losses suddenly have them back to reality and concerned about something that has never been their Achilles heel, their defense. The offensive explosions they had in week one and two may have masked the overall deficiencies of their defense. They’ll need to get the offense back again here, but that could be tough against the Steeler defense that is starting to shows of what we expected they should be. Can Mark Ingram and the running game move the defense of the Steelers enough to give Lamar Jackson a chance to throw, or can Jackson revert back to running? Mark Andrews will need to have a big game and he has the ability to be the difference in the passing game.
Mason Rudolph is starting to look comfortable in the Steeler’s offense and all of a sudden what seemed like a bleak outlook for the season now seems like there’s some Lloyd Christmas “telling me there’s a chance”. The most worrisome piece of this game for Pittsburgh is whether or not they’ll have the services of Juju Smith-Schuster at wide receiver. Smith-Schuster hasn’t really been filling the stat sheet, however the importance with drawing the coverage his direction is very important to this team. If he can’t go, James Conner will likely be seeing a lot of stacked boxes and there will be a lot of pressure on Rudolph. While Conner has also not gotten off to a great start, he and Jaylen Samuels were able to get some yards last week against a weak Bengals defense, and they have an opportunity against the now soft Raven defense.
This is a game that Baltimore should find a way to rebound in and win. Even with the Steelers playing short handed and with their backup quarterback, they’re going to fight hard in front of their home fans, particularly after having some new life breathed into them with their win last weekend. It’s hard to pass up the hook on this one, especially with the game being in Heinz Field. The Steelers should be able to stay competitive in this one and 3.5 seems like it’s better to take than give in this contest.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers +3.5 (Ravens 23, Steelers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers +3.5 (Ravens 27, Steelers 24)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-3-1) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-4)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: Arizona 64%
The Breakdown:
A game with major draft order implications as two rookie head coaches are desperately searching for their first win in the league. While neither team figured to be in the hunt for the Super Bowl this year, they both had some high expectations based on the potential of certain things each had in place. Through four games, it’s been a lot more disappointments than positives, but as they like to say, something’s gotta give here.
Even though Kyler Murray hasn’t tasted victory just yet, he has been able to get the Cardinals offense moving in the right direction. The offensive line still hasn’t played great, but give Kliff Kingsbury some credit for finding ways to get David Johnson the ball in space and getting Murray and Larry Fitzgerald on the same page. It’s pretty wild that Fitzgerald is still playing at such a high level and he’s actually creeping up on some records of Jerry Rice that people thought were untouchable, even in the the pass happy NFL. The Bengals will shift their coverage in the direction of #11 this week as Christian Kirk isn’t going to suit up. The area where Arizona can really attack Cincinnati is with David Johnson in the passing game. The Bengals linebacking corp is one of the poorest in the league and if we’re Arizona we’re attacking that with Johnson running option routes out of the backfield.
The poor Bengals were dealt another blow this week as their former first round pick speedster John Ross was placed on IR following an injury against Pittsburgh. Ross was finally delivering on some of the potential that made him a high pick which was good to see, but unfortunately it looks like Ross may be one of those guys whose career never really gets on track due to being unable to stay on the field. He joins A.J. Green, first round pick Jonah Williams and left tackle Cordy Glenn on the sidelines in this game which takes four of the offense’s top players off the field. The key to watch in this game though is if the Cardinals veteran pass rushers Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs will be able to have their way with the Bengals offensive line, as most folks have this year? If they do, the Bengals will be turning the ball over again and punting the football repeatedly. If they can somehow find a way to neutralize the rush, they can put some points on the board. This is also a game where Joe Mixon should finally break through with a good performance. Mixon has been running hard but has simply not had enough help from that offensive line to be productive this season. Arizona is giving up almost 150 yards on the ground per game so look for Mixon to run hard between the tackles.
If you’re planning to bet this game best of luck to you. You can certainly make a case for either team in this game based on the variables discussed. The public is on Arizona, so we’ll go the opposite direction and assume this will be one of just a few games the Bengals win this season.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals -3 (Bengals 24, Cardinals 20)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals -3 (Bengals 20, Cardinals 16)
vs. 
ATLANTA FALCONS (1-3) at HOUSTON TEXANS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Houston Texans -4
Over/Under: 50
Public Money Percentage: Houston 55%
The Breakdown:
The Atlanta Falcons find themselves in a tough spot as five point underdogs in what is a game they really need to win if they want to be in the fold in their division. Furthermore, they’ll be playing on the road as one of the worst road teams vs. home teams in the league during quarterback Matt Ryan’s tenure (minus their Super Bowl season). The Houston Texans are also looking to keep pace in their division that while is not necessarily great, is extremely competitive. These teams have some similarities, including two coaches who have been criticized for their in-game management, two quarterbacks who have earned high praise but not gotten over that critical win marker, and possibly the two most talented wide receivers in the league. By default, one of these teams is going to leave this game feeling really good about itself, even if it’s false hope, while the other will be left searching for answers that may not ever come.
We’re a little bit of a broken record in terms of the Atlanta Falcons and our evaluation and that’s ok by us as it means we’ve got them pegged pretty well. They’ll obviously be on the road for this one, which is a situation where Matt Ryan and the offense will most likely continue to struggle. Truth be told, they’ve struggled at home as well as most of their statistics that look encouraging have been playing from way behind in garbage time. Matt Ryan is not having a good season at all (unless you’re talking about fantasy football) as he’s making mistakes a veteran Pro Bowl quarterback should not be making. The real issue with this team goes beyond Ryan and their talented skill players, it’s all about the fat men and their inability to win the battles up front. Additionally their red zone production has been sorely lacking, which has been an issue extending beyond this season. Conversely, Houston has been solid in their red zone defense, so there should be some field goals in place of touchdowns when the Falcons are on offense. At some point this season the Falcons will put up some big plays and a lot of points in a game, but we’re going to bet that is going to happen at a game when they’re in the comfort of their dome.
There is something out of sync with the Texans offense as well as they haven’t been able to get the Watson to Hopkins connection working. Hopkins is used to double coverage so it’s certainly nothing there, it’ more about the inability of the Texans to make teams pay with other players. Like the Falcons, the Texans have not been great on the offensive line either. The trade for Laremy Tunsil was necessary and can still prove fruitful, but so far he has not played well and the line as a whole is still giving up way to much pressure to allow Watson to operate out of the pocket. The run blocking has also been a challenge despite Carlos Hyde’s tough running style. The Atlanta defense which will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens actually has a decent matchup in this game if they can avoid being burned for the big play. Expect the Texans to try to start the game running the ball to set up some play action. If they’re able to establish the run early, they may be able to stick with it for the duration. Either of these teams is capable of playing in a shoot-out environment, but they’re both going to want to out-physical the other in the first half.
Key Stats – The Falcons are averaging 17.5 points and the Texans are averaging 19.5 points per game in their first four games of 2019
The public is not surprisingly on the Falcons and the over in this game as the lines moved from Atlanta +5 to +4 and the total moved from 49 to 50. Julio, DeAndre, Ryan and Watson, points galore! Only in theory. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will struggle to score points on the road as has been one of the more consistent trends in the NFL over recent seasons. Look for DeAndre Hopkins to be more involved in this game as the Texans will look to get him going. That could be through a lot of short passes and slant routes to keep the chains moving. 50 points is a total that should be reserved for teams like the Chiefs, not the 2019 version of the Falcons and Texans. It’s always a wise decision to go the opposite direction of the public which is exactly what we’re doing here. Give us the under.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans -4 (Texans 26, Falcons 20)
JJ’s Pick – Texans -4 (Texans 27, Falcons 14)
vs. 
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-2) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-1)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: New Orleans Saints -3
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 54%
The Breakdown:
An NFC South showdown in the bayou with both teams coming off of big wins in week four. Bruce Arians has done a nice job getting Tampa’s offense going and Sean Payton is doing his usual good work finding ways to win without Drew Brees behind center. Every division game is important, but you get the feeling that this is a game that you’ll look back on late in the season and the loser could be saying “if only we’d won that one”.
While Bruce Arians deserves some credit for what’s going on in Tampa Bay, it’s defensive coordinator Todd Bowles that has really made a splash on the that side of the ball. This team was pushed around last year repeatedly, and all of a sudden they’re leading the league in run defense under Bowles. We discussed the Rams missing Ndamukong Suh playing next to Aaron Donald, and in this case the Buccaneers are the beneficiaries of Suh’s strong play on the defensive line. This could spell trouble for the Saints as their game plan of getting Alvin Kamara a lot of touches could be slowed down. For the Bucs to really have success they’ll also have to limit Kamara in the passing game and in space. Offensively, TB has been hot and Jameis Winston has been playing some really nice football with the exception of one really bad interception they lived to tell about against the Rams. The combination of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin has really been the best one-two punch in the league this year as at least one or the other has had a monster game in each week. While the running game hasn’t been explosive, it has been slightly improved as both Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones have had some success moving the sticks.
It’s hard to imagine the Saints feeling much better about how things are going with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. The general thinking was if they could go 3-3 in Brees’ absence that it would be considered a win. At this point they’re really looking at trying to be 4-2 or 5-1 and having Brees hit the ground running when he returns. Bridgewater is going to have to make some plays in this game if the Saints want to come away with a win. Can he get the ball down the field when the opportunity is there? Or can he get Jared Cook involved in this offense? The biggest fear if you’re the Saints in this game is that Will Lutz is your most active player. If the Saints have to settle for field goals they aren’t going to win this game or cover. Sean Payton and Teddy Bridgewater are going to have to find a way to punch the ball into the endzone.
This is a really good matchup even without Drew Brees in the lineup. The Saints secondary is confident and athletic and the battle between them and the Bucs wide receivers should be a good one. These teams know each other pretty well so there won’t be too many surprises, more of just good quality football. As is the case with most Tampa games, the biggest factor in this game will be how well Jameis Winston takes care of the football. If he plays a mostly clean game, the Bucs could come away with the road win. The Saints on the other hand will need their defense to feed off of the home crowd and get Winston to make some critical mistakes. Another tough one to call, another one where we will go ahead and take the FG.
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers +3 (Saints, 21, Buccaneers 19)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers +3 (Saints 24, Buccaneers 23)
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 51%
The Breakdown:
Kirk Cousins has been a popular whipping boy this year in the NFL and you can’t really defend a whole lot of what he has been doing on the field. Frustrations finally boiled over last week as Adam Thielen politely called him out for missing some wide open throws, and as was mentioned, Stefon Diggs basically said he can’t play with him at quarterback. All of that spells some obvious trouble for the Vikings, right? Well, the jury is out on that and it’s very possible, however for this weekend things may turn amicable again for the purple gang. Kirk Cousins is another quarterback that has played markedly better at home than on the road, however a tilt with the New York Giants could be exactly what ails the Minnesota quarterback and offense. The Giants have been allowing nearly 300 yards through the air and have been gashed on the ground as well. Their inability to consistently generate pressure without blitzing has left their secondary vulnerable and you have to imagine that Cousins will be eager to get both Diggs and Thielen the ball often. Even if Cousins can’t get things completely right, as long as he can take care of the ball they should still be able to move up and down the field on the strong legs of Dalvin Cook. We’ll be looking to play Cook’s over rushing total as a prop as well as this should be an absolute 100+ yard day for him. The Vikings line will overpower the Giants defensive front which is exactly what Minnesota needs to get the offense back on track.
Flipping to the other direction, quarterback Daniel Jones has been the spark NY has needed to both crawl back into contention in the NFC and more importantly provide some hope for the future. You’ve got to be impressed with the athleticism and poise that Jones has shown in his first action as it certainly looks like he is the franchise quarterback they hoped when drafting him. This is going to be a really difficult task for him though going against a very solid Viking defense. Unlike the Giants, the Vikings have the ability to generate a pass rush without bringing extra rushers. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Jones to make the right reads very quickly in passing situations. He does get Golden Tate back after his four game suspension which will give him some help, assuming they can be on the same page. When Saquon Barkley returns from injury, which looks as though it will be sooner than anticipated, this offense could really become tough to defend. With Barkley out, this is just too tough of a spot for a rookie quarterback. Minnesota has been one of the hottest covering teams in the league dating back to last season and they don’t even need to do that with this teaser.
Yanni’s Pick – Vikings -5 (Vikings, 29, Giants 20)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -5 (Vikings 26, Giants 20)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (3-1) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th -1:00pm
** Game played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England
Spread: Chicago Bears -5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Chicago 54%
The Breakdown:
It could just be us, but it really seems like the games that end up over the pond in England end up being duds more often than not. A 3-1 team and a 2-2 team looks pretty good on paper, however there aren’t a ton of playmakers and excitement for this game, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
Chase Daniel leads this Bears offense against a Raider defense that has played surprisingly well, at least surprising to us. As we’ve seen throughout the league this season having a backup quarterback starting is not the worst thing the world. I think that’s even more so the case when the original starter is named Mitchell Trubisky. It’s not unreasonable to think that the Bears offense will be better with Daniel calling plays versus Trubisky. The Bears will start by trying to get their running backs involved and the loss of Vontaze Burfict could be bigger than it seems. Burfict was the fire and aggression on the Raider defense who set the tone against opposing running games. Jon Gruden didn’t even try to downplay the loss of Burfict calling it a huge loss to the defense and the team. Another thing working in Daniel’s favor is that the Raiders have been lit up through the air ranking 26th through the first four games. Allen Robinson is a player that is familiar playing in England from his days with the Jaguars and has had some big games there in his career. If you need a sleeper fantasy receiver give Robinson a shot this weekend.
Oakland on the other hand has some key injuries at the receiver position as both J.J. Nelson and Tyrell Williams are questionable to suit up. Going up against the Bears defense is not a game where you want to be limited throwing the ball. The Raiders need to do two things to give themselves a chance to win this game. First, they need to establish Josh Jacobs and the running game. It’s not easy to run against Chicago, but it’s even tougher to throw it, especially when they know you’re throwing it. If Jacobs can get the Raiders in 3rd and short situations they could have some success. That’s going to be a tall order with Danny Trevathan and freshly re-instated Roquan Smith roaming at linebacker. Second, Derek Carr must take care of the football. When the Bears are creating turnovers, they absolutely roll. When they’re not they become very very average. It’s hard to picture Derek Carr being able to do much offensively even with the great connection he’s developing with tight end Darren Waller.
Khalil Mack has downplayed going against his old team, and we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. That doesn’t mean he still won’t be dominant in this game. It’s really hard to see where Oakland is going to be able to manufacture offense in this game. The under is pretty appealing in this game, although we really like the Bears in this game. We didn’t post this as an official play, but we’ll probably be putting some beer money on Chicago before kickoff.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears -5.5 (Bears 20, Raiders 11)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -5.5 (Bears 23, Raiders 13)
vs. 
NEW YORK JETS (0-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 1:00pm
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -14
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 54%
The Breakdown:
In a good survivor pick game the NY Jets travel to Philadelphia with their third string quarterback to take on a rested Eagle team looking to put together back-to-back victories. The Jets ruled Sam Darnold out for this game which means Luke Falk will be getting the start again for New York. There isn’t a ton of suspense for the outcome of this game, until you add in the great equalizer of the spread.
It’s reported the Jets gave Sam Darnold the majority of the first team reps this week which means he’s close to returning, but also means they’re basically conceding this game to the Eagles as they haven’t gotten Luke Falk the reps he would desperately need to stand even a slim chance. We can expect heavy doses again of Leveon Bell out of the Jets as Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwarz most certainly will be. Bell has played fairly well when you consider the entire opposing defense has been keying on stopping him. The Eagles have struggled in the passing game as injuries have torn through their defense and specifically their secondary so it’s not completely crazy to think the Jets could have some success Sunday. More than likely they’re really going to struggle as Falk will be under pressure and the Eagle fans will be fired up.
Let’s start our look at the Eagles with stating that we’ve got an unofficial play of the Eagles total over of 28.5. C.J. Mosley is out in this game and he is truly the key to the NYJ defense. Philadelphia should have a lot of possessions in this game and between the running game and passing game will reach the 30 point mark in this game. The Eagles are still missing field-stretching DeSean Jackson at receiver, but have enough firepower to make this a minimum of a two score game. The Eagles have notoriously been a slow starting team so don’t panic if you’re riding their point total over or their spread. They’ll eventually find some ways to score, especially if they can get young Luke Falk to turn the ball over.
This spread seems about right at two touchdowns so it’s pretty much throwing a dart at the wall trying to determine who’s covering. We’re split on this one, but like the Eagles to put up some big points. The Jets will be competitive when they get Darnold and Mosley back in the lineup, but until then you can fade them pretty hard.
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles -14 (Eagles 34, Jets 16)
JJ’s Pick – Jets +14 (Eagles 31, Jets 18)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (0-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-2)
Sunday – October 6th – 4:05pm
Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -6
Over/Under: 44.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 59%
The Breakdown:
The late game features Denver traveling to Los Angeles still searching for their first win for rookie head coach Vic Fangio. The Broncos have fought hard in the first quarter of the season and just seem to be that team that can’t buy a break when they need it. They took another blow losing half of their talented pass rushing duo when they placed Bradley Chubb on IR with an ACL injury. They’re going to need not only some breaks but a good gameplan if they’re going to get out of LA with a win on Sunday. Even though the Chargers don’t have much of a homefield advantage it should be enough to have an impact on Bronco QB Joe Flacco who throughout his career has been a classic home performing quarterback who has struggled on the road. The Chargers are banged up on both sides of the ball, but still have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep the Broncos from doing too much on offense.
Some good news for the Chargers as they’ll finally get to give well rested running back Melvin Gordon a test drive on Sunday as he returns from his holdout. Gordon wasn’t able to gain any leverage in hope of a long-term deal with LA as Austin Ekeler was one of the most productive running backs through the first four games. All accounts out of LA state that Gordon is eager to quiet the nay-sayers so look for him to be motivated in whatever game action that he sees on Sunday. The Broncos are 30th in the league in stopping the run giving up nearly 150 yards a game and allowing opposing teams to average over 5.1 yards per carry. Both Gordon and Ekeler could be in for big days no matter who’s seeing the touches. Philip Rivers just keeps plugging along with Keenan Allen and whoever else happens to be lining up on any given Sunday. Without Chubb in the lineup the Chargers will shift their protection to Von Miller which should slow down the only semblance of a pass rush Denver has had this season. Rivers has been as good as it gets during his career when he has time to throw. Between the Broncos inability to stop the run, or generate pressure, LA will be able to find success and keep the sticks moving throughout the day. Lastly, we mentioned it in this analysis, but it’s worth repeating: The Broncos are a completely different team away from the altitude of Mile High in Denver. They are a miserable 1-10 straight up against their AFC West divisional foes on the road over the past season and a half or so. They may put up a bit of a fight, but we’re going out on a very short limb and assuming that mark will move to 1-11 as the Chargers should be able to hold serve and get the win.
Yanni’s Pick – Chargers -6 (Chargers 28, Broncos, 19)
JJ’s Pick – Chargers -6 (Chargers 24, Broncos 16)
vs. 
GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-1)
Sunday – October 6th – 4:25pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 53%
The Breakdown:
A couple of historic NFC powerhouses are lining up for what could be one of the top games of week five in Arlington. This is another game that could have some big implications in the playoff picture later on in the season. Both teams are looking to rebound after disappointing losses last week.
Aaron Rodgers has owned the Cowboys in his career with an 8-2 mark in ten career games. He’ll need to play one of his best games to come away with a win as he is going in without his number one target and weapon Davante Adams at wide receiver. Jamaal Adams is also not available so Aaron Jones ability to run becomes pretty critical in this game. Can Rodgers get enough out of his second and third options or maybe Jimmy Graham to put points on the board? Can the Packers banged up offensive line keep the fast Cowboy defense from harassing Rodgers in the pockets? A lot of questions for the Packers offense in this one which is never a good sign.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were humbled last week as they had their first true test after beating up on some of the bottom feeders in the league. The Dallas offensive line is also beat up as their stalwart left tackle Tyron Smith looks like he will not be able to go. Normally this might be concerning, however it may not make a huge difference in this game. Speaking of being humbled, the Packers were flat out knocked down defensively last week against the Eagles. We never bought into the hype of the Green Bay defense being a formidable unit despite the 3-0 start and media accolades. There is no reason at all that Dallas shouldn’t run Ezekiel Elliott 25 times in this game, and even less reason that Zeke should have less than 125 rushing yards against that weak Packers interior. If Dallas keeps things simple, they’ll be in really good shape here. Amari Cooper will return home where is has been outstanding since being traded to the Boys’.
If the Cowboys were playing almost any other quarterback we’d be loaded up on them as the matchup on paper dictates Cowboy domination. It really just comes down to a simple question, how often does Aaron Rodgers get blown out? Because of Rodgers we’re not going all in on Dallas even though they should handle this cover.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -3 (Cowboys 25, Packers, 20)
JJ’s Pick – Cowboys -3 (Cowboys 23, Packers 20)
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-0)
Sunday – October 6th – 8:20pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -11
Over/Under: 56
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 60%
The Breakdown:
The Colts have mentally moved on from Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement and Jacoby Brissett is now the man. They’ll be heading to Kansas City where their QB Patrick Mahomes is the man of the entire league. Can the Colts find enough firepower to match up with the electric KC offense?
Indianapolis laid an egg last week against Oakland but you’ve got to give them at least a little bit of a pass as they had to play missing some huge components on their team. This week they are going to need all hands on deck to keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard. T.Y. Hilton is a listed as a game-time decision and if he can’t go, the Colts could probably just get back on the bus and head out. It’s a bold statement to make when we’re talking about just one player, but his abilities to loosen up defenses and make plays causes opposing defenses issues. Without him, the Colts simply don’t have enough weapons in the passing game to make things happen. Especially in a game where they’ll need to score pretty much every time they touch the ball.
There isn’t a lot to breakdown with the Chiefs that hasn’t already been known and stated by anyone who has watched them play this year. The biggest mystery is how quickly Tyreek Hill is going to rejoin this cast to make them even more dangerous than they already are. The Colts are again without their defensive leader Darius Leonard so Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy should have some room to run, which will only make things easier for Mahomes and company. Coming off of a game where Mahomes played just “ok” by his lofty standards, you can figure he’s going to do some impressive things returning back to Arrowhead.
The Colts are potentially one of the most underrated teams in the league when they are healthy as Brissett isn’t getting enough credit. However, they simply are in a spot that’s going to be too much for them, especially missing some of their best players. It’s always a little risky laying double digit points, but in this case, that’s a very solid play if you want to make it.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -11 (Chiefs 39, Colts 22)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -11 (Chiefs 34, Colts 20)
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (3-0)
Monday – October 7th – 8:15pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -4
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: Cleveland 56%
The Breakdown:
The Monday Night Football broadcast features a game that probably isn’t made for football purists, but could end up being a pretty good game. Cleveland continues its streak of being showcased in primetime against a 49er team that is finally deserving of being back in the spotlight as well.
The Browns absolutely took it to their division rival Baltimore Ravens last week in a game that is what Cleveland fans had been expecting all season. It’s understandable that it would take the Browns a little while to put things all together on offense and defense, and it’ll be interesting to watch the next few weeks to see if they’ve gotten it figured out, or if that was just an isolated great performance. Baker Mayfield silenced the critics for at least a week, however that criticism could be coming back after a tough matchup against a sneaky good 49er defense. Mayfield has not done well when pressured and San Francisco has been as good as any team at pressuring the quarterback this year. The good news for Cleveland here is they were finally able to make Nick Chubb a focal point of the offense and boy did he deliver running wild for nearly 200 yards and 3 touchdowns against Baltimore. The Niners have been pretty strong against the run so far, which means Chubb may not find the success he did a week ago. There is no question that San Francisco has the edge in the trenches in this game which will put a lot of pressure the skill players for the Browns. Fortunately for them, guys like OBJ and Jarvis Landry enjoy the shine of the bright lights and will be ready to go.
On the offensive side of the ball the 49ers haven’t been overly dynamic, yet they seem to just consistently move the ball and score when they need to. They rotate players at running back and receiver and no matter who is in, they just seem to produce. Jimmy Garroppolo has will get some run in a spot that he hasn’t really had since joining the team and you have to imagine he’s going to be eager to show the league what he can do. A guy that has been a little quiet on this team is George Kittle which is really surprising based on what he was able to do in 2018. Look for Kittle to have a big day against the Browns secondary. Myles Garrett has been a wrecking machine through four games but this 49er offensive line is really solid and they’ll find a way to neutralize the Browns pass rush. Look for whichever of the 3 or 4 running backs San Francisco uses to make some plays in the running game as well.
The BetCrushers are on opposite sides of the MNF game with Yanni taking the points and JJ taking San Francisco to cover at home. This is a hard game to bet as we truly don’t know what we’re going to get out of Cleveland at this point in the season. If you’re playing this one, best of luck.
