BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 11-5
JJ – 13-3
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 27-20-1
JJ – 25-22-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
A really nice week for the BetCrushers as Yanni put together a strong 11-5, while JJ brought some serious heat going 13-3 ATS. After a somewhat slow start both are sitting above .500 and pushing towards .600 as we head into week four. The two games that dinged us both were Kansas City not able to hold onto the cover against Baltimore, and the poor effort from the Broncos at Lambeau Field. No sour grapes on that game, but the Chiefs definitely had that cover well in hand. Oh well, when you have really good weeks like we had we’ll just keep it short and sweet and look ahead.
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-0)
Thursday – September 26th – 8:20pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -4.5
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 56%
The Breakdown:
njuries to some of the faces of the NFL have taken over the headlines early in the season as Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are all currently on the sidelines. Although the Philadelphia Eagles still have their signal caller, they have been the team most decimated by a slew of injuries throughout the first three weeks drastically altering the talent and depth of the team. At a time when they could really use a bye week (or maybe a game against the Dolphins), they instead get the assignment of traveling to Lambeau Field on a short week coming off of a tough loss to face the 3-0 Green Bay Packers. Overall, we’re not very high on GB despite their nice start, and we have Philly as a potential NFC champion, however this one instance we’re circumstances will dictate this wager.
There are 3 main reasons we believe the Eagles are a Super Bowl contender. First, we expect a big season from Carson Wentz as he gives this team a chance to win every week. Second, with the different weapons they have on offense, they have the ability to create matchup problems to where it’s impossible to take every athlete away defensively. And third, this defense had enough good depth on the defensive line and just enough acceptable talent in the secondary to keep them in and win games. Well, here we are heading into week four and the second and third reasons we had pegged are out the window, at least for this game.
Give the Eagles some credit as they were able to move the ball a bit despite the absence of it’s top two wideouts Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Don’t buy into the hype of how magnificent Green Bay’s defense is, but it is true that they are improved from a year ago. This is more about Philadelphia’s injuries than it is the defense of Green Bay though. The explosiveness and options just aren’t there right now. Philly is optimistic that Alshon Jeffery will be able to give it a go Thursday, but reports are he is not moving that well. Another thing that has to be a little concerning for the Eagles is the inability to get a running game going. Miles Sanders has looked like a rookie and Jordan Howard has been average in his limited work. It’s a little surprising that Doug Pederson hasn’t leaned a little more on the veteran Darren Sproles to give the offense a more dynamic look. The Lions game plan last week was pretty simple, they were going to double Zach Ertz and force someone else to beat them. You have to think the Packers will take a cue from that approach to take Ertz out of the game.
Flipping to the Packers offense, this is the type of situation that Aaron Rodgers loves. It’s a short week and he’ll be going up against some players without a lot of experience and a downgrade in talent at some key positions. Their offense hasn’t been overly explosive recently, however that has the potential to change Thursday. Ronald Darby was the best of a poor cornerback lineup and he’ll miss the game following his injury in the Detroit game. The Eagles only have three corners on their roster at the moment so they’ll be having to make some roster moves just to have enough bodies to go. Davante Adams will look like a top receiver this week and you can expect a big game from him. The losses of Malik Jackson and Timmy Jernigan on the defense line have really limited what the Eagles can do defensively as well. Their depth is depleted and where stopping the run game was a foregone conclusion previously, it’s now something the Eagles really have to work towards. That puts even extra pressure on the secondary to support and tackle.
The line quickly moved from GB -4 to -5 and climbing in this game as the public sees some of the same things that we do here. However, we’re taking a slightly different approach to our bet. First, let’s recap what we have here: The Eagles have to travel to one of the tougher places to play on a short week. If you follow betting or football in general, you know that home teams have an even bigger advantage than usual with the Thursday night games. Philly is badly banged up at really key positions. Aaron Rodgers plays much better in Lambeau than he does on the road. What’s probably the biggest key to this game is the Eagles notoriously slow starts. This has been a bad pattern for them going back to last season. They’ve been utterly dominated in the first half of games and have had to play from behind quite a bit. There is a good chance that Green Bay can cover the 5 points, but there is also a good chance that the desperate Eagles can find a way to cover the spread. In fact, here’s an interesting nugget: The underdogs are 3-0 straight up on Thursday Night Football this year. It would seem like that trend will come to an end Thursday, but a field goal game is certainly a possibility.
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles +4.5 (Packers 30, Eagles 27)
JJ’s Pick – Packers -4.5 (Packers 27, Eagles 20)
vs. 
TENNESSEE TITANS (1-2) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Atlanta Falcons -4
Over/Under: 46
Public Money Percentage: Atlanta 55%
The Breakdown:
An interesting contest between two teams with contrasting personalities and styles as the Titans travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons with each team looking to even up their record at 2-2. The winner of this game is right back in the mix for the playoffs while the loser will find themselves with a pretty big uphill battle.
The Titans were the surprise of opening weekend going on the road and thoroughly dominating a hyped of Cleveland team before crashing back to reality with two very mediocre performances following. Marcus Mariota continues to struggle to be the impactful player the Titans drafted him to be despite leaning on Derrick Henry who has gotten off to a fast start this season. The passing game as a whole has been a struggle for Tennessee as Corey Davis has been non-existent and free agent Adam Humprhies hasn’t been able to replicate the slot success he had in Tampa. The good news for this Titans offense is they get an Atlanta defense that as you’d expect has had issues stopping opposing offenses. Those issues could become exacerbated even more with the tough to watch departure of Falcons safety Keanu Neal with his season ending achilles injury. The Titans should be able to take advantage of the thin secondary and this could be a situation where one of the team’s receivers steps up with a big performance. The Titans need to block better to allow Mariota to take his shots down the field for some chunk yardage plays.
On paper the Falcons offense would appear to be cruising right along to their normal high-flying standards. The fact of the matter is they have not been very effective despite the solid statistical numbers that they’ve put on paper. Many of quarterback Matt Ryan’s yards and touchdowns have come playing from way behind against soft defenses or in garbage time. No one will question the talent of the skill players on the Falcons, yet as has been the case for several years, they’re struggling in key situations including untimely turnovers. It’s a pretty simple evaluation on this Falcon offense, they just don’t get it done in the trenches. Throw in the fact that Matt Ryan has made some mistakes that you wouldn’t expect from a veteran and you have a 1-2 record with a game against the Titans that becomes pretty critical. There is a bright spot for the Falcons and that is the fact they’ll be in the comfort of their cozy dome. All teams have some semblance of a home field advantage, and this Atlanta group is right towards the top of that list.
This is a really tough one to handicap as the Titans have done well against the NFC over the past couple of seasons and solidly on the road. As mentioned, the Falcons tend to get the offense going at home and have a substantially better record and cover record in the dome. We’re both taking the points as this has the making of a game that will probably be tight throughout.
Yanni’s Pick – Titans +4 (Falcons 23, Titans 20)
JJ’s Pick – Titans +4 (Titans 21, Falcons 20)
vs. 
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: New York Giants -2.5
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: New York Giants 60%
The Breakdown:
Something has to give in this game as both of these teams have pretty substantial losing streaks straight up and ATS in the NFC East. The Giants are slight favorites at home despite losing Saquon Barkley to a high ankle sprain a week ago and installing rookie quarterback Daniel Jones for his second start. That rookie is the reason the Giants are favored as he was electric in his debut and has given the Giants a glimmer of hope in this season and certainly beyond. The Redskins are coming off a beating at the hands of the Bears defense are hoping that facing the Giants defense is what their ailing offense needs to take head coach Jay Gruden off the hot seat for at least a week.
Case Keenum inherited an unenviable job in Washington playing behind an offensive line missing their most talented player, a wide receiving corp without any established gamebreakers (Terry McLaurin has been a huge bright spot), losing veteran tight end Jordan Reed possibly for the season, and young running back Derrius Guice for a second straight season. When you factor all of that in, he hasn’t actually performed all that terribly. He’ll have the good fortune of playing a Giants team that has not been able to rush the passer or defend the pass at all this year as we expected. The Giants have been so-so against the run and will be focused on stopping Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson. While Keenum should find himself with ample time in the pocket, it’s tough to see the Skins’ being able to threaten them down the field. McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring injury and there just isn’t a lot behind him to scare the Giants defensively.
When we peak at the Giants the big question will be can this offense run without workhorse stud Saquon Barkley in the backfield? There may not be a bigger dropoff from RB1 to RB2 than going from Barkley to Wayne Gallman. He’ll probably get some good volume, but you fantasy waiver wire guys who are thinking you’ve landed a producer may be disappointed. The Redskins haven’t put up much of a fight ranking 28th against the run so if Gallman is going to make a name for himself he needs to do it in this game. The real excitement in this contest seeing if Daniel Jones can put together back-to-back star performances and lead the Giants to another victory. He showed some instant chemistry with Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard last week and if he can do that again the fans in New York will have a reason to be stoked. While we mentioned Gallman maybe not being a great fantasy play this week, Shepard absolutely is. We’ve been tough on the Giants brass but they do deserve some kudos for improving the offensive line, and maybe, just maybe, finding their next franchise QB.
Despite his impressive first start it is way too early to know if Daniel Jones is the real deal just yet. Boy he sure looks like he may be though. This is only one game, but this could be a real telling sign of what the future for the G-Men looks like. We’re both on the Giants in what figures to be another close NFC East contest.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants -2.5 (Giants 28, Redskins 24)
JJ’s Pick – Giants -2.5 (Giants 24, Redskins 20)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-2) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-3)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -16
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Miami 52%
The Breakdown:
The Miami Dolphins came oh so close last week against the Cowboys… To covering the +23 ridiculous spread that was placed on them. Alas, they couldn’t quite get it done. This week they have a more manageable line that opened at +17 and quickly went down to +16 as the public is actually backing the Dolphins to keep it close at home against the Chargers. LA has been hit hard by the injury bug and started 1-2 in a season where expectations for them are still pretty high. They’re pretty confident they’ll leave Miami at .500 with a win with the real question being whether or not they can blow out this inept Dolphin team?
There was a rant by someone on social media talking about how terribly of a quarterback Philip Rivers is when you look at his record, stats, etc that made us pause for a second. That was a really quick second as we’re not buying that complete BS. Rivers is carrying this team again and has the good fortune of facing a Miami team that cannot stop anyone at any time. With Hunter Henry out of the lineup Keenan Allen is leading the NFL in receiving and he’s really in sync with Rivers this season. These two will no doubt hook things up again this week against a Dolphin secondary that has been torched repeatedly. Look for the Chargers to get Mike Williams going as he’s been slowed early on and will have some really favorable matchups with Xavien Howard on Keenan Allen. Austin Ekeler will again enjoy a productive day and low and behold Melvin Gordon may even make an appearance with Justin Jackson out this week. This game is basically preseason work so it’s actually a great time to get Gordon back in the flow of things.
The Dolphins will go back to Josh Rosen at quarterback which kinda makes sense although I’m not so sure Peyton Manning could help this offense at this point. The Chargers pass rushers have to be licking their chops at the thought of abusing the Fins’ offensive line and getting to Rosen. As the Chargers get some confidence back on defense this team really just needs to hold down the fort until they can get some key guys, most notably Derwin James back into the lineup later in the season.
If you’ve followed football at all over the past decade or so you know that the Chargers have this really bad habit of playing down to their competition. They’re in tight games against the top teams, yet find themselves in close games with the bottom feeders as well. They should do fine in keeping this one comfortable, but this is shaping up to potentially be the Dolphins first cover of the season. If you’re not into banking on the Dolphins to get you a cover and don’t want to lay the huge number with an under performing Chargers team, take a look at the LA over at 29.5. Their offense hasn’t had much trouble moving the ball this year and it’s hard to imagine even if they’re sleep walking with the cross country early game that they won’t be able to get 30.
Yanni’s Pick – Dolphins +16 (Chargers 34, Dolphins 20)
JJ’s Pick – Dolphins +16 (Chargers 27, Dolphins 13)
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-2) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -6.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Indianapolis 54%
The Breakdown:
That Raider beatdown of Denver in their opener seems like a distant memory as reality struck in for this team, particularly away from the Black Hole. They’ll head to face a Colts team that is minus some key contributors in a game that could go in a multitude of directions.
Oakland is looking to get back on track on both sides of the ball as they’ve struggled moving the football and stopping opponents. They get a big break this week as the Colts will be without Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker defensively, and without T.Y. Hilton on the offensive side of the ball. The Raiders should look to establish rookie Josh Jacobs as the absence of Leonard in the middle of the defense will allow some production that may not have otherwise been there. Derek Carr has really developed some chemistry with Darren Waller at tight end and Malik Hooker’s void in the middle of the secondary could be emphasized there as well. We all know about Antonio Brown, but somehow the Raiders have to try to find a game changer to stretch the field and make big plays. It’s unlikely that will happen in this game, unless they come from Jacobs and the RB position.
For the Colts it’s time to recognize that they have something with Jacoby Brissett as the leader of this team at QB. Brissett will never be Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, but he is clearly a capable starting quarterback that a team can win with. He makes timely plays and generally makes sound decisions in the pocket. He was set up to have a nice Sunday in this matchup, except we’ll need to wait and see what missing his number one target does to him and this offense. Zach Pascall isn’t exactly striking a lot of fear in anyone at this point in time at wide receiver. Look for heavier usage of tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron who both have been much higher performers at home than on the road. The most important units in this game are the Colts offensive line and running back Marlon Mack. Without Hilton, the game plan will feature a lot of Mack who has been a productive worker so far this year and should get see a bunch of work against this Oakland defense. If the Raiders can slow down this running game and force the Colts to throw the ball they could have some success. More than likely, Mack and the Colts should be able to control the line of scrimmage which should be the difference in which team wins.
The BetCrushers were all in on the Colts for this game until the last minute. Yanni is going to flip and take a chance on the Raiders as the Colts being without three of their top players could be enough to keep Oakland competitive. The Colts should come away with the win here, it’s just a matter of how many points they’ll be able to win by.
Yanni’s Pick – Raiders +6.5 (Colts 20, Raiders 17)
JJ’s Pick – Colts -6.5 (Colts 26, Raiders 17)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Houston Texans -4
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Houston 61%
The Breakdown:
An inter-conference showdown with some of the most talented players in the league takes place in Houston as the Texans look to stay atop the AFC South, while the Panthers try to find their way without Cam Newton at quarterback. Whoever leaves this one with a win will be feeling pretty good, while the loser will face an uphill battle throughout the season.
Kyle Allen made his season debut at QB and the Panthers offense looked pretty explosive all things considered. Feeding the ball to Christian McCaffrey certainly was a big reason for that and also a great strategy for the offense. McCaffrey should see a lot of work again this week against a Texans defense that has been allowing over 5 yards per carry to enemy backs. Allen looked sharp last week and was able to get his speedy receivers involved as well as reliable tight end Greg Olsen. There will be opportunities for big plays against this Texans defense and it will be critical for Allen to capitalize on those opportunities when they’re presented to him. If McCaffrey touches the ball 25+ the Panthers have a legitimate shot to pull off the upset.
Deshaun Watson has picked up making big plays as he has done his entire career and gives this team a chance to win every week. The wide receiving corp is healthy and supporting Deandre Hopkins giving Watson plenty of targets to spread around. The Panthers have not been great stopping the run so look for Houston to try to force Carlos Hyde into the mix after rough sledding a week ago. (We had him as a prop play and he killed us). The addition of Laremy Tunsil hasn’t shored up their porous offensive line just yet and that will be a key area for the Panthers to try to exploit. Gerald McCoy is questionable to play in this game and this line hasn’t gotten home much even with him. One line will have to step up here and whichever one does could also prove key to who comes away with a win.
The Texans should be able to hold serve at home in what could be a high scoring and close game. Unlike a lot of games, there are several “keys” in this one that will determine the outcome. We’re split on this one and if you’re dying to play it we both slightly lean towards the over.
Yanni’s Pick – Panthers +4 (Texans 28, Panthers 27)
JJ’s Pick – Texans -4 (Texans 27, Panthers 21)
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-0) at DETROIT LIONS (2-0-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Over/Under: 55
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 68%
The Breakdown:
The Patrick Mahomes hype is 100% legit, end of story. We wondered a bit if his child-like backyard football style might catch up with him a bit this season? Safe to say that it hasn’t and most likely never will. He is flat out magical running the offense and give some huge credit to Andy Reid for finding the right compliments and being aggressive and creative with the play calls. That recipe has this team rolling offensively, and don’t look now but the defense has been pretty average. Normally average wouldn’t be something to be excited about, but for this team that’s all this offense needs. One really fun thing is the addition of LeSean McCoy as his versatility and experience are perfect for what this team needs.
The Lions have been pretty darn impressive as well other than one bad quarter against Arizona in their opener. We predicted they’d be a feisty and competitive bunch and they’ve been that and then some. It’s pretty clear the NFC North is the best division top to bottom in the league. Matt Stafford looks as comfortable as he ever has and the Lions offense has it’s own arsenal of weapons to lean on. Stafford was a little banged up on the injury report but looks like he’s a go so no big worries there. The big challenge for the Lions in this one is going to be slowing down the complimentary skill players of the Chiefs. Darius Slay should be able to match up with one of the Chiefs receivers and the Lions zone can limit Travis Kelce. It’s after that where the concern comes in. Whether it’s Demarcus Robinson, rookie Mecole Hardman or backs out of the backfield there is just too much to stop. This game will be a shootout like most of the Kansas City games are and expect the Lions to stay competitive. At the end of the day, as it has been through three weeks it’ll be too much Kansas City offense and they should leave Motown with the win. One final food for thought: There is a LOT of public money on the Chiefs here…
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -6.5 (Chiefs 30, Lions 20)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -6.5 (Chiefs 27, Lions 17)
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-2) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -7
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 55%
The Breakdown:
Baltimore and Lamar Jackson were unable to handle the expectations of the football media losing in Kansas City last weekend. (No shame in that). They return home to face a Cleveland team that also struggled to win a visible game at home against the Rams. The Ravens have historically owned the Browns, as have the other teams in the AFC North, and with the Steelers reeling they believe this is still their division to win. This game is a critical early season battle that will either establish the Ravens as the team to beat, or show the league that the Browns are worthy of the preseason fanfare they received. For the first time, Cleveland has more star appeal than the Ravens despite players like Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown outperforming Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry and squad. In this game however, the skill positions are not the key at all. Baltimore should dominate the battle of the big men which will ultimately be the difference in this one. If that’s not enough convincing for you, take a look at how these teams perform at home and on the road. While every team is better at home than away, the Ravens are substantially better in their own stadium and the Browns are historically bad on the road. In fact, the Browns have only won 1 game on the road in their previous 27 contests as an underdog. Read that last sentence again. Yes the Browns are not the laughing stock they’ve been, but that’s still a pretty amazing statistic. Finally, in what could be a close divisional match, coaching could play a big role. John Harbaugh continues to be a solid head man while Freddie Kitchens is struggling and already hearing the criticism. This may take 60 minutes to get there so be patient, but the Ravens will find a way to win this game at home.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns +7 (Ravens 26, Browns 21)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens -7 (Ravens 24, Browns 17)
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-0) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-0)
Sunday – September 29th – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -7
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: New England 64%
The Breakdown:
A divisional showdown between a pair of unbeatens as New England goes to Buffalo, a team that they have owned during the Belichek/Brady era. New England has been unstoppable thus far, both offensively and defensively and look to continue a streak that has seen them win 11 of their last 13 in Orchard Park. (One of those losses was a Jimmy Garropollo start). The Bills will need their defense rattling Brady early if they’re going make this one interesting. Fortunately, they have a talented, deep and veteran unit that knows what it takes to put pressure on the New England offense. The bigger issue for the Bills will come on offense as the Pats defense has been rock solid holding opponents down, albeit not the best offenses in the world to date. The most critical thing in this game for the Bills will be protecting the ball as they’ve managed to win against lesser teams despite having some bad turnovers. If they do that against this New England team it could end up being a rout. This game will more than likely stay around or below the point total as the defenses will be on display. While it’s certainly possible that this game is a close one, the Bills are not ready to leapfrog a Patriot team that looks as strong as ever.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -7 (Patriots 23, Bills 13)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -7 (Patriots 20, Bills 10)
vs. 
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (1-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-0)
Sunday – September 29th – 4:05pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -9
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 55%
The Breakdown:
Traveling across the country the Buccaneers take on the LA Rams in a game that had a semi-surprisingly large spread considering Tampa Bay has played well despite a 1-2 record. As always this Tampa team will win and lose with quarterback Jameis Winston as a four TD or four interception game are equally as likely. The Rams and specifically quarterback Jared Goff have been markedly better at home which would explain what opened as a 10 point spread for this one.
Mike Evans went absolutely off last week as he reminded folks who the number one receiver on this team is since the expected emergence of Chris Godwin. Tampa provides some problems on the outside for most teams who don’t have talented cornerbacks. Unfortunately for them, they’ll face a strong DB trio in LA which could slow down those deep balls and big plays that TB will be looking for. Putting the pressure on Tampa’s running game and Winston is not a great formula for their success which is exactly what the Rams will be trying to do here. This might be a good game for O.J. Howard to try to make his presence felt if the receivers are struggling to make plays. Winston can surprise you, so it’s not impossible for him to thrive, but this sure looks like a situation where he may have some struggles.
For the Rams they have the fore mentioned advantage of their signal caller playing in front of the home crowd where Goff has looked like a Pro Bowl quarterback. Tampa has played so much better this year defensively as they’re both better and healthier than they were at this time a season ago. The sneakily quiet signing of Ndamukong Suh has really bolstered this run defense as the Bucs are only allowing 3 yards per carry through the first three games. Rams head coach Sean McVay mentioned he wanted to get Gurley going in the passing game this week and because of that Buc rush defense it certainly would be a good time for that. LA should find success in it’s three receiver set where Cooper Kupp has emerged as Goff’s favorite target this year. Look for all three receivers to make some plays in this game as the ball should get spread around evenly. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald hasn’t had the flashy numbers from his ridiculous season in 2018 and you have to wonder how much he misses having Suh next to him on the line? If you’re a Rams fan there’s no need to panic as he’s still looked and graded out very well despite the lack of statistical production. He started out slow last year as well so it’s safe to assume he’ll get things going. There’s no clear reason to give him an edge in this one so call it a hunch, but something tells us he’ll be after Winston a bunch in this game.
It’s hard to make a case that Tampa Bay can escape this game with a win in what’s a really tough spot for them. That being said the Bucs might be able to put up a solid effort and avoid getting blown out. We’re on different sides on this one and neither of us feel strongly one way or the other so play at your own risk and best of luck!
Yanni’s Pick – Buccaneers +9 (Rams 26, Buccaneers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -9 (Rams 30, Buccaneers 19)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-1) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 4:05pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -5
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 62%
The Breakdown:
Looking to rebound from their first loss of the season Seattle takes on Arizona who is searching for their first win in the Kingsbury/Murray era. The Seahawks were exposed a bit against the Saints and Russell Wilson had a rare “off” game as he missed some open receivers in key moments. Despite their 0-2-1 record the Cardinals have showed some signs of life and excitement and should only improve as the season continues.
The Seahawks have managed to put some points up despite the retirement of Doug Baldwin as the offense has been diverse and Tyler Lockett has emerged as a number one receiver. It’s the other side of the ball that’s been an issue for Seattle as their defense has been gashed, particularly through the air. We’re going to assume that Wilson and the Hawks’ will be able to get some points on the scoreboard as they should have some success running the ball with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny as well as in the passing game. Will Dissly is quietly becoming a really quality tight end and a favorite target for Wilson, especially in the Red Zone. Can their defense hold up against Arizona and their own passing attack?
Kyler Murray has looked every bit the superstar he was touted to be and has rejuvenated the career of future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz looks like he could play three more seasons at this rate and if he keeps playing like he has through three games he very well may. Murray is going to throw a lot in this game and should put up a good yardage stat line. (If you like prop bets, check out his over). The Cardinals have done a decent job leaning on David Johnson and although he hasn’t been spectacular he’s really helped take some pressure off Murray. It’s difficult adapting to the Seahawks going from the Legion of Boom to a secondary that hasn’t really been able to slow down anyone yet this year.
It goes without saying, but turnovers will be a key in this one. If Arizona can take care of the ball they could walk away with their first win of the season. Even if they don’t, this game has the makings of one that could come down to whoever has the ball last. It’s understandable looking at the records why this line is where it is, however we’ve got it pegged more like a Seahawks -2 ish. With the Cardinals getting a solid 5 points at home, we’re fairly confident that they will be able to get a cover here despite some trends that show this one being all Seattle.
Yanni’s Pick – Cardinals +5 (Cardinals 30, Seahawks 27)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +5 (Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20)
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-1) at CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Chicago Bears -2
Over/Under: 38.5
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 59%
The Breakdown:
If you like defense then you’ll want to check out the game that has the lowest over/under total of the week between the Vikings and Bears in Chicago. As of week four, Green Bay is the favorite to win the NFC North and the Vikings and Bears have the same odds leading us to believe they are pretty similar in terms of talent, ability and potential. In actuality the Vikings are a better team than the Bears as an overall group even if their defense may be slightly behind the Bears vaunted unit. As with the other part of the teaser homefield is important here so the Bears may come away with a victory in this one. As far as the outcome this feels like a complete toss up to us however. We will probably flirt with the Vikings on the moneyline at some point if the return payout is strong enough. The amazing thing about this teaser though is we don’t need a win at all, we simply need a very good team to not get completely blown out. Getting 9 points with a team that’s even at least with the opponent in what should be a low scoring game is an absolutely uncontested layup. Getting to the X’s and O’s there will be a lot of running in this contest and defenses will be hitting. It’s hard to imagine either team doing much offensively, and in particular the Bears. When they’re on offense there is nowhere on the field where they have a meaningful edge or matchup that they can exploit. We’re not counting on the Vikings to light up the scoreboard here either, they just need to do enough to keep this game close and get a few big plays out of their big three of Cook, Thielen and Diggs. After a thorough breakdown there is really only one possible way that the Vikings can’t cover the 9 points with this teaser and that’s if Kirk Cousins and the offense turn the ball over four or five times. Granted, with Cousins on the road against this defense it’s not impossible, which is why we’re not telling you to bet the farm on this one.
Yanni’s Pick – Vikings +2 (Vikings 19, Bears 17)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings +2 (Vikings 17, Bears 16)
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (0-3)
Sunday – September 29th – 4:25pm
Spread: Denver Broncos -3
Over/Under: 39
Public Money Percentage: Jacksonville 58%
The Breakdown:
Vic Fangio is still searching for his first win as head coach of the Broncos as they welcome Uncle Rico, aka Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars to Denver for a Sunday late game. You could probably spend the next 12 hours making a case for each side to cover in this one so if you know what the outcome is going to be please let us know.
The Nick Foles era in Jacksonville may be one of the shortest in history as Minshew mania is in full effect in the Duuuuval. It’s a really small sample size, but you have you to at least pay attention, if not be impressed by what Minshew has been able to do in his young career. He’ll look to keep that momentum going and try to stay in the mix in an up for grabs AFC South division. The Jags have struggled on their offensive line and have not been able to get Leonard Fournette over or really even close to 100 yards over the past season. Denver has been pretty soft against big backs so Fournette really needs to try to make some noise to help his young QB out. For Minshew he’ll have to be aware of the Broncos edge rushers who have to be pressing a bit to make some things happen. What would the odds have been that after three games that a Vic Fangio defense with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb would be the only team in the league not to record a sack? As we suspected before the season, teams are so focused on the Broncos two stars that others need to step up and make plays, and Denver simply doesn’t have any other playmakers. We’ll go out on a short limb here and say that Denver gets home at some point here but will it be enough? At corner, Chris Harris, Jr. continues to play well, however the rest of the DBs really have not. Dede Westbrook has had a disappointing campaign so far this year, but look for him to have a big game running out of the slot here.
It’s hard to come up with a word other than “mediocre” when you evaluate the Broncos offense this season. Joe Flacco has looked good in stretches, and awful at other times. That’s kind of been his career in a nutshell when you think about it. Phillip Lindsay has run hard and made some plays, yet overall he and Royce Freeman have not been able to consistently keep the running game going. Cortland Sutton has played nicely at receiver and Emmanuel Sanders still has the ability to make big plays, yet this team hasn’t been able to keep the chains moving on third downs with any regularity. The offensive line has under performed as a whole which could be a problem with the Jags coming off a 9 sack performance a week ago. Perhaps the biggest key to this game is the availability of drama-filled star corner Jalen Ramsey for this Jacksonville defense. No matter what you think of him, you can’t deny he is one of just a few difference makers in this league at the corner position. If he plays, Flacco could have a really tough time throwing the football. If he doesn’t it would greatly ease the ability for the Broncos in the passing game. Now would also be a nice time for Broncos young tight end Noah Fant to make some plays.
When you check the intangibles and trends it’s a potpourri of information that is not a ton of help. Flacco is a much better quarterback at home and the Broncos are desperate to get their first win and avoid and 0-4 start. Jacksonville is coming off of a huge national stage win against a division rival and are hearing a lot about how they’re all of a sudden a really good team. On the flip side, Flacco has been as awful against the Jaguars in his career as any team he’s faced as he’s thrown a ton of picks and not been able to put any points on the board. NUGGETS: The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS against the Broncos in their last five matches, the Broncos are 0-6-1 ATS as home favorites in their last seven. Combine all of that and it’s anybody’s guess for this one. We’ll go ahead and take the points if Ramsey is playing for the sake of making a pick here.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Broncos 20, Jaguars 18)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars +3 (Broncos 15, Jaguars 14)
vs. 
DALLAS COWBOYS (3-0) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-1)
Sunday – September 29th – 8:20pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 58%
The Breakdown:
The Sunday Night Football showcase boasts two teams that could potentially be playing each other again when the playoffs are underway in January. The week four showdown between the Cowboys and Saints will probably look a lot differently than any future playoff game would as New Orleans is still adapting to the absence of their quarterback Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints offense did a very impressive job last week against the Seahawks making plays to get them a win in one of the toughest stadiums in the league to visit. The Cowboys kept rolling against the JV team of the league as the biggest headline in their game against the Dolphins was Dak Prescott discussing Wendy’s spicy chicken nuggets in the offensive huddle.
One of the reasons the Saints were successful against Seattle was a fantastic performance from their defense which had Russell Wilson looking confused and inaccurate, which doesn’t happen very often. It’s pretty common for a defense and complimentary players to step up for a back up quarterback in their first game without their leader. Things generally tend to calibrate themselves in the second game as the emotion and adrenaline evens out. That Saints defense which was aggressive, fast and forcing turnovers will need to have the same performance against a Cowboy team that has had little trouble scoring points thus far. You can safely say that Dak won’t have a lot of time in the huddle against this group to discuss fast food or Chunky Soup or yogurt or anything else. He will be looking for a fourth strong game in a row to continue to put the pressure on Jerry Jones for a new mega deal. While Dallas has made a living on offense with big plays in their first three games, they’ll probably need to be a little more paced and diligent in this game. Their lauded offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott will need to move the chains a few yards at a time, which they should be able to do against the Saints front seven.
Sean Payton set the Saints up with a really creative yet simple to execute gameplan in their first game without Drew Brees. As a result Teddy Bridgewater played well and Taysom Hill was able to be involved as well. The plan wisely utilized Alvin Kamara who is a nightmare to try to defend particularly in the passing game. The other problem the Saints will have this week is that there is now some film to prep against what the Brees-less offense looks like. Dallas should be able to study how they’ll be attacked, and they’ll actually need to be on the attack to put pressure on Bridgewater and that offense. Their athletic linebacking corp should be able to keep Kamara somewhat in check and their secondary can match up with Michael Thomas at a minimum. The biggest key for this game is how well the Saints can protect Bridgewater in the pocket. The Cowboys need to get pressure and be the team creating turnovers, which we believe they will.
Key Stats – The Saints are 1-7 in their last 8 games ATS.
It’s always a little risky going against the Saints in the Superdome particularly when you’re a team laying points. Let’s go ahead and get it out there that the Saints have the obvious advantage in the coaching department as well. Last year these teams played a tight defensive game that ended with the Cowboys walking away with a 13-10 victory. This game is shaping up to have a similar feel although there should be a few more points scored this time around. Both of these teams are pretty complete, however Dallas has the advantage defensively and at the quarterback position (Until #9 returns). We’ve had some great success early on laying small points on the road with good teams, here’s hoping that trend continues.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -2.5 (Cowboys 23, Saints 17)
JJ’s Pick – Cowboys -2.5 (Cowboys 24, Saints 20)
vs. 
CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-3)
Monday – September 30th – 8:15pm
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Cincinnati 51%
The Breakdown:
The NFL probably didn’t expect two teams sitting at 0-3 to be squaring off in week four of Monday Night Football. How quickly things can change as this is basically an elimination game for the loser. Realistically these teams are probably already not going to be contending for the playoffs either way, and an 0-4 start would seal the deal. One thing is for sure, these two teams have as much bad blood between each other as any in the league so despite the lack of importance in the standings, this one could still be a fun one to watch.
Zac Taylor and the Bengals lost a tough one to the Bills in week three in what would have been an important win. After a terrible first half, the offense came alive in the second half running the football and making some plays through the air. They’ll face a tough Steelers defense that head coach Mike Tomlin has said has not played to their potential, which we completely agree with. It’s always disappointing when you have “what ifs” which is exactly what both of these teams have right now. We know things would look differently if Ben Roethlisberger had not been lost for the season, but what if AJ Green and the offensive line were healthy, could the Bengals be in a different spot? With as well as Tyler Boyd and John Ross have played it’s safe to imagine this offense would be really strong with AJ Green lined up on the opposite side. Cincinnati’s poor offensive line has hindered Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard and they wouldn’t figure to have a lot of success against the Steeler D in this game either.
This is potentially a game where Steelers backup QB Mason Rudolph could really make some things happen against a thin Bengal defense. It’s hard to predict intangibles in sports betting, but the very rivalry between these two teams could help the Bengals slow down what Pittsburgh is hoping will be a spark in their offense. The black and yellow have struggled in the running game as James Conner has not enjoyed the results he had in his first year as a starter. The passing game has understandably slowed way down as teams are keying on Juju Smith-Schuster forcing Rudolph to find less talented weapons. The key to the Steelers winning this game is establishing what should be their dominance on the offensive line. They should be able to get to the linebackers of the Bengals and create some opportunities for Conner and some time for Rudolph in pass protection. The Steelers should own the battle of the bigs on both sides of the ball which will most likely be the deciding factor in this rivalry game.
We’re looking at the under as a possible play here and both feel like the Bengals should be able to cover the +4. As is the case with most of the games between these two teams, no matter who is or isn’t playing they tend to be close and end up as field goal games. Advantage home team and big men for Pittsburgh here so they should find their first win of the season in what will be a tough battle of winless foes. NUGGET: The Bengals have played better on the road than at home recently and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
